Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:56PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 7:52 AM EDT (11:52 UTC) Moonrise 7:18PMMoonset 7:54AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 300 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
Today..West winds around 5 knots becoming east southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters smooth. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south southwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Inland waters choppy. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds becoming 4 seconds after midnight. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Thursday..North northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night and Saturday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 300 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
Synopsis.. A stalled frontal boundary will remain near the georgia waters through today before lifting north of our region as a warm front tonight. A strong cold front will cross our local waters Wednesday evening. Showers and Thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage, followed by northwesterly winds in the wake of the front Wednesday night. Winds and seas will diminish by late in the week as high pressure builds into the region.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of oct 10, 2019 at 1200 utc... 59 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 72 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 87 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 97 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, GA
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location: 31.32, -81.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 151049
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
649 am edt Tue oct 15 2019

Much needed rain will fall over drought stricken areas... .

Synopsis
A stationary front will remain over or near the area until a
strong cold front moves through on Wednesday. High pressure
will prevail Thursday and Friday, followed by unsettled weather
for the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Expanded and moved up categorical pops by a few hours along the
savannah river based on current radar trends. Overall, the
forecast is in good shape. The rap and h3r still seem to capture
the high temperature distribution well and is similar to the
previous forecast.

15 07z surface analysis showed the cold front located roughly
along a sylvania-yemassee-north charleston line and is delinted
by a well-defined isodrosothermal gradient. Dewpoints in the
mid-upper 50s were common north of the boundary with mid-upper
60s to its south. The front will meander ever so slowly to the
south this morning, becoming stationary roughly along the i-16
corridor and arcing up along the lower south carolina coastal
waters later in the day. This boundary will serve as focus for
some much needed wet weather over the next 24-36 hours as a
series of perturbations embedded in the southern stream traverse
the deep south into south carolina.

Regional radar composites show light to locally moderate
rainfall breaking out across much of the deep south early this
morning. This activity is associated within a region of weak
isentropic assent along the nose of tropical moisture plume
featuring pwats about 2 standard deviations above the mid-
october climatological normal. The far eastern fringes of this
area of lift is beginning to infringe across far interior
southeast georgia with kclx kvax radars showing light rain
already approaching the metter-reidsville-ludowici areas. Area
surface observations show this rain band has already produced a
few hundredths of inch southwest of vidalia. Guidance is similar
in showing 305k isentropic lift steadily increasing along and
south of the i-16 corridor through daybreak which will aid in
the development expansion of additional shower activity as
condensation pressure deficits lower.

The degree of lift will further increase and spread to additional
isosurfaces later in the day as 925-700 hpa winds veer to a
more southerly trajectory and begin to interact with the
stationary front within a warm and increasingly moist airmass
(pwats ranging from 1.5 inches over the charleston tri-county
area to as high a 2.25 inches south of i-16). Expect widespread
shower activity to form by mid-morning then slowly expand into
southern south carolina through the day. Forecast soundings
across southern south carolina show a fairly decent mid-level
pocket of dry air is in place, so any isentropically generated
rain should initially fall as virga before the column saturates
enough to support measurable rainfall. It may very well take
until mid-late afternoon for measurable rains to reach as far
north at the i-26 corridor and the charleston metro area,
although virga sprinkles will likely fall many hours before
then. Pops will range 80-90% across the charleston tri-county
area to 100% elsewhere. There will be a small risk for tstms
near and south of the stationary front where some weak
instability will be present.

The temperature forecast will be a tricky one today with
atypical diurnal curves. Widespread rains and some diabatic
cooling will make for a much cooler day over southeast georgia
with highs only reaching the lower-mid 70s; coolest in the
metter-reidsville areas. Farther to the north across southern
south carolina, temperatures should be able to warm into the
upper 70s-lower 80s before the onset of light rains and diabatic
cooling which will bring temperatures back down into the lower-
mid 70s. There is a big bust potential here as any delay or
earlier onset of light rains north of the savannah river will
have an impact.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday
Tonight: a pronounced southern stream shortwave will approach
from the west today. Forcing ahead of this feature coupled with
some baroclinicity along the stationary front will induce a weak
wave of low pressure across southern georgia by late afternoon
which will trek across southeast georgia and southeast south
carolina overnight. Although the various synoptic models vary
on how pronounced this will low will become (the 15 00z nam
being the most aggressive) before emerging out into the atlantic
Wednesday, all agree that strong moisture convergence will
develop in the vicinity of the stalled cold as an increasing
wind field induced by the surface wave becomes favorably
aligned with a corridor of deep-layered vertical velocities
ahead of the approaching shortwave. This will likely result in
an area of enhanced rainfall where the rain could become locally
heavy at times within an airmass featuring pwats 2-3 standard
deviations above normal. The heaviest rains are expected to fall
near and to the east of the track of the surface low, or roughly
in a broad corridor from metter and reidsville northeast into
the savannah and beaufort metro areas.

Nam QPF values look a bit bloated given the likely over
development of the surface low, so utilized a model blend with
the latest wpc forecast to construct storm totals through
sunrise Wednesday. Expect general rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches
with localized amounts potentially exceeding 4 inches; highest
values located in the above mentioned corridor. Widespread flash
flooding appears unlikely given the ongoing drought conditions,
but there is a risk for heavy rains to fall around the evening
high tide which could cause some issues at the coast. The
situation does not necessitate the issuance of a flash flood
watch at this time, but would not be surprised to see a few
flood advisories issued. Despite the lack of significant surface
based instability, a few tstms could still occur given the
level of dynamics at play. The risk will generally be confined
to the area along south of i-16 and up into the south carolina
coastal counties.

Breezy conditions will likely be found at the immediate coast
with gusts approaching 30-35 mph at times. Lows will range from
the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the beaches.

Wednesday: the mid-levels will consist of a trough axis stretching
from the great lakes region into the southeast in the morning. The
axis is forecasted to shift eastward, and offshore of our area by
the evening. This will allow west northwest flow to develop
overnight. At the surface, a strong cold front will be west of our
area in the morning. It's expected to quickly move through in the
late afternoon or evening. Widespread showers will be ongoing during
daybreak Wednesday due to plenty of moisture in place and lift ahead
of the front. This is when pops are the highest. Models are in
fairly good agreement having these showers move dissipate from west
to east during the morning and afternoon hours and we generally
showed that trend in the hourly pops. Coastal locations should
experience showers the longest, possibly into the afternoon. But
things dry out by the evening as the front moves through, then
offshore. High pressure then builds from the west. Daytime
temperatures may be slightly above normal, reaching these values
before the front moves through. On the flip side, lows should be
slightly below normal due to the cold air advection and mostly clear
skies.

Thursday: a mid-level trough is expected to be along or just off the
east coast while ridging builds over the central u.S. Broad surface
high pressure initially centered over arkansas in the morning will
move over the tn valley in the afternoon, prevailing into the
evening and overnight. It's southwest periphery will stretch into
our area, bringing subsidence, dry conditions, and mostly sunny
skies. The most noticeable thing will be the cooler airmass, with
daytime temperature struggling to make it to 70 degrees in our sc
counties, and the mid 70s in our ga counties. Lows will be very
noticeable, falling into the 40s across most of our inland
locations, warmer along the immediate coast.

Friday: a mid-level trough initially located off the east coast will
get pushed away by a strengthening ridge approaching from the west.

Broad surface high pressure initially along the central appalachians
will shift eastward into the afternoon. Again its periphery will
stretch into our area, bringing subsidence, dry conditions, and
mostly sunny skies. High temperatures will be similar to Thursday,
mainly due to northeast surface winds.

Long term Friday night through Monday
Models initially start out with decent agreement, showing high
pressure moving off the coast Friday night. A gulf of mexico system
approaches our area on Saturday. That's where models disagree on
whether we receive any precipitation from it. We opted to go with a
blend of the models during this time period. By Sunday all of the
models show precipitation over our area and this continues into
Monday. Hence, we trended wetter during this time period.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
The 06z TAF set seems to capture trends well and was mainly
continued with slight modifications.

Kchs:VFR through mid-afternoon with conditions deteriorating
quickly thereafter. Very light rain will begin to impact the
terminal by 18z, but no vsby issues are expected as the rain
will be fighting some mid-level dry air. Heavier, widespread
rains with both vsbys and CIGS dropping below MVFR thresholds
will begin to occur by 21z and continue through the evening. Ifr
cigs will start to fill in with the heaviest rains later this
evening and prevail through daybreak Wednesday. CIGS were
limited to just above alternate minimums for the overnight
period.

Ksav: conditions will deteriorate this morning as widespread
rains begin to move in from the south. The rain will initially
be light, but will get heavier through the morning as the
vertical column moistens with continued isentropic assent. Think
it will take until mid-morning for vsbys and CIGS to drop below
MVFR thresholds. Ifr CIGS appear likely by early afternoon as
rains intensify. Window of heavy rain with CIGS nearing lifr
levels is possible after sunset, which could bring CIGS below
alternate minimums. Will limit CIGS to right at 600 ft for now.

Extended aviation outlook: conditions will improve Wednesday
afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Gusty winds are
possible during that time period. High pressure will then bring
vfr Wednesday night through Friday. Unsettled weather may bring
flight restrictions on Saturday.

Marine
Today: light winds will give way to increasing northeast to east
winds as a cold front stalls near the savannah river. Speeds
will generally remain less than 15 kt, although some localized
enhancements could occur near the savannah river entrance and up
into the beaufort nearshore waters in the vicinity of the front
this afternoon. Seas will average 1-3 ft.

Tonight: conditions will deteriorate rapidly across the coastal
waters tonight as low pressure moves just to the west. Both the
nam and GFS show an enhanced wind field developing near the low
with frequent gusts possibly reaching gale-force for several
hours. A gale watch has been issued for both georgia legs as
well as the beaufort county waters in agreement with a blend of
the two models, favoring the weaker GFS low depiction. Small
craft advisory conditions (20-25 kt) look to occur in the
charleston harbor and charleston county nearshore waters prior
to daybreak so have gone ahead and hoisted flags beginning at 6
am Wednesday for charleston nearshore leg, but held off on
charleston harbor where it looks a bit more marginal. Seas will
build to 4-6 ft nearshore waters and 5-7 ft offshore waters
overnight. In addition, vsbys could drop below 1 nm at times in
periods of heavy rainfall.

Wednesday through Saturday: hazardous marine conditions will be
ongoing Wednesday morning, ahead of a cold front approaching
from the west. Marine headlines will be ongoing during that time
period. The cold front is expected to move through Wednesday
afternoon or evening, causing winds and seas to trend downwards
initially. However, there could be another wind surge with cold
air advection around midnight. High pressure will bring tranquil
marine conditions Thursday and Friday. Conditions could start
to deteriorate on Saturday as a system to our south
approaches develops.

Tides coastal flooding
Elevated tides will continue into Thursday, resulting in the
possibility of shallow coastal flooding around the times of the
morning high tide, mainly for downtown charleston and nearby
areas. Coastal flood advisories are possible.

Climate
Rainfall records for 15 october:
kchs: 3.89 1954
kcxm: 3.49 1954
ksav: 3.03 1971

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Gale watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
amz352-354-374.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 8 pm edt Wednesday for
amz350.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 8 mi52 min WSW 7 73°F 1019 hPa (+1.0)70°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 27 mi62 min SW 1.9 G 3.9 76°F 79°F2 ft1018.3 hPa (+0.7)70°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 42 mi22 min 79°F2 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 45 mi52 min N 7 G 11 77°F 79°F1019.5 hPa (+1.2)

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick / Glynco, GA7 mi57 minSSW 77.00 miLight Rain70°F69°F97%1019 hPa
Brunswick, Malcolm McKinnon Airport, GA12 mi59 minSW 75.00 miRain Fog/Mist71°F68°F90%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBQK

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW4W5W7W7W5W3NW6N4CalmE6SE6CalmS3CalmCalmS6S3CalmCalmCalmW5SW7SW3
1 day agoSW4SW7SW9SW8SW5S5SE7SE9SE9S11SE9S9S8S8S7S6S5SW4SW7SW7SW7W5W4E4
2 days agoCalmCalmNE3N5N5W3CalmSE11SE8SE7SE6SE5S4SE5S6S5S6S5SW3CalmCalmSW3SW4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Jones Creek entrance, Hampton River, Georgia
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Jones Creek entrance
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Tue -- 03:50 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:36 AM EDT     8.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:14 PM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:57 PM EDT     7.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.54.72.71.10.51.12.54.36.17.48.28.27.35.63.61.90.91.12.13.65.26.57.37.6

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tower, Sapelo Island, Georgia
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Old Tower
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:50 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:45 AM EDT     7.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:14 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:06 PM EDT     7.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.33.82.10.90.51.32.94.96.67.77.97.36.14.62.91.60.81.12.345.76.87.27

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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (7,2,3,4)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.