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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 856 Am Est Wed Dec 6 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough.
Tonight..North winds 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Thursday night..East winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters smooth.
Friday..Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 856 Am Est Wed Dec 6 2023
Synopsis..
a dry cold front will cross the local waters today, trailed by strengthening northwest winds with small craft advisory conditions set over the nearshore and outer waters. Winds and seas will begin to weaken later tonight as high pressure builds north of the local waters through Thursday. The high builds offshore of the southeast atlantic coast on Friday.
Gulf stream..
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 05, 2023 at 1200 utc...
57 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 59 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 68 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 87 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KCHS 061638 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1138 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build in today and then prevail through Saturday. A cold front will cross the area on Sunday, followed by high pressure early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Morning analysis reveals a pronounced short-wave trough axis advancing across the southeast Atlantic coast and strong upper jet axis (in excess of 160 knots sampled on the CHS 12Z sounding) pressing into the Atlantic. Associated surface boundary has been suppressed south/east of the region with solid deep layer cold air advection underway on stout NW flow (nearly a 12C temp drop at 700 mb between our 00Z and 12Z sounding).
Fairly strong surface high pressure is spreading into the southeast behind the boundary with a fairly tight pressure gradient across the region.

Rest of today: Trough axis will push offshore followed by upper level ridging nosing into the region later this afternoon.
Surface high pressure will follow suit and continue to build across the southeast through the the day. Sunny skies will be the rule, although given the development of a fairly deep mixed layer to above 800 mb, we could see a touch of Cu this afternoon. Temperatures will top out in the middle to upper 50s most areas, with few locations reaching 60F.

On Lake Moultrie, west-northwest winds are expected to increase to 15 to 20 knots with a few higher gusts, but think winds will stay below Lake Wind Advisory levels.

Tonight: Deep layer ridging will continue to build from the west. The surface ridge is shown by models to be centered over northern GA and AL by late night. This will allow the pressure gradient to weaken considerably, with winds becoming light north-northeast. Lighter winds and clear skies will allow good radiational cooling, with freezing/near freezing temperatures around 30 to the lower 30s inland/west of I-95, and mid to upper 30s east/closer to the coast. Given surface dewpoint temperatures are expected to be in the upper 20s to the lower 30s, we should see pretty widespread frost, especially west of I-95, more scattered closer to the coast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure will shift overhead on Thursday, before transitioning offshore for late week. A few showers could brush the coast on Saturday, but by and large, a dry forecast remains in place for majority of the period. High temperatures mainly in the mid 50s to around 60 on Thursday will warm with time, peaking in the lower 70s for Saturday. Lows will be chilliest Thursday night ranging from the low/mid 30s across the far interior to the low/mid 40s at the immediate coast and in Downtown Charleston. More mild for Friday night in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
An amplified upper trough will shift into the eastern U.S. Saturday night into Sunday. Concurrently, a cold front will approach from the west, likely crossing the area Sunday afternoon. Strong forcing for ascent and ample moisture will support a band of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms with the front. Likely a high shear/low CAPE scenario with instability at this point looking pretty meager, only a few hundred joules with poor mid level lapse rates. Outside of storm potential, it looks to be a pretty breezy day. High pressure will then build in wake of the front and remain the primary feature through Tuesday. Temperatures will remain above normal on Sunday and then will drop several degrees for Monday and Tuesday following fropa.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 12Z Wednesday: VFR conditions will to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV terminals. Morning sounding indicated northwest winds of 20-25 knots 1-3k ft, which should translate to gusty conditions later this morning and through the afternoon. Winds decreasing after sunset, becoming light during evening.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR through late week. Flight restrictions are possible in showers associated with a cold front late Saturday night into Sunday.

MARINE
Recent observations in Charleston Harbor are showing frequent gusts in excess of 25 knots. Thus, have added the harbor into the SCA through the afternoon.

Previous discussion...
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.
A strong upper trough will pass offshore today, strong surface high pressure will build from the west. Expect SCA conditions across the Atlantic Waters, with generally northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots, some gusts near 30 knots possibly offshore GA waters. Seas generally 2 to 4 feet within 20 nm, and 4 to 6 feet beyond 20 nm. Over Charleston Harbor, northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots, with periodic gusts to near 25 knots possible, especially near the mouth of the harbor. By tonight, the surface high pressure center will continue to move east toward the Atlantic waters, which will allow winds and seas to gradually decrease. Winds/seas should fall below SCA levels all waters later this evening. Otherwise, northerly of 10 to 20 knots by later tonight and seas subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.

Thursday through Monday: Winds and seas will continue to improve on Thursday as high pressure shifts overhead. The high will then transition offshore for Friday and Saturday with no concerns expected. Marine conditions will then deteriorate Sunday into Sunday night ahead of and behind a passing cold front. Small Craft Advisories are likely for most, if not all, coastal waters including the Charleston Harbor. Improvement is expected on Monday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ330.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ350- 352-354.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for AMZ374.

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Jones Creek entrance
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Wed -- 01:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:29 AM EST     6.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:47 AM EST     1.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:34 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:39 PM EST     6.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:09 PM EST     1.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jones Creek entrance, Hampton River, Georgia, Tide feet

Old Tower
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Wed -- 01:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:38 AM EST     5.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:47 AM EST     1.57 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:33 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:48 PM EST     6.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:21 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:09 PM EST     1.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old Tower, Sapelo Island, Georgia, Tide feet

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