Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:24PM Sunday December 8, 2019 2:09 PM EST (19:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:17PMMoonset 3:36AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 803 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019
.small craft exercise caution...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. A chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..North northeast winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Showers likely.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 803 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis.. High pressure will build offshore of new england today as a coastal trough lingers over the southeast atlantic bight. This trough will lift north of the waters late today then high pressure will build across south florida Monday and Tuesday. A cold front pushes south of the waters late Wednesday with elevated rain chances continued into Thursday as an area of low pressure tracks east across the gulf of mexico.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 07, 2019 at 1200 utc... 49 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 58 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 64 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 85 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, GA
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location: 31.32, -81.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 081809 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 109 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will prevail inland today while a coastal warm front develops offshore and lifts north of the region Monday. A cold front will push through Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Strong high pressure will return thereafter, followed by a storm system late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Update: Made a few minor changes with this update. Temperatures along the GA coast were a few degrees lower than expected, probably due to the cloud cover. We adjusted the diurnal temperature curve there, also lowering the high temperatures slightly. Dew point observations from the past hour were much drier than what was anticipated, so we lowered the dew point from now into the early evening. Radar returns from JAX indicate an area of precipitation moving in from the south, so we bumped up the POPs over the GA coastal waters. Though, it appears the rainfall should stay offshore.

Otherwise, a mid-level short-wave is currently moving through. At the surface, a wedge pattern persists inland while a coastal trough transitions into a warm front. Although isentropic ascent will increase, it takes until forcing from the short wave to produce any showers from off the Atlantic, as a deep southerly flow generates significant moisture advection into the region. The best rain chances will occur across Charleston and Berkeley County due to the proximity of the surface trough/warm front. Highest PoP of 30-40% will be found roughly east of a line from Jamestown to Mount Pleasant, and not until after 2 or 3 pm. QPF will reach up to 1/10 to 2/10 inches in these locations.

Shoreline locations will be breezy throughout much of the day, with a packed gradient between the inland wedge and the coastal trough/warm front. Northeast winds will peak as high as 20-25 mph; even a little stronger in places that are exposed to a longer northeast fetch such as Folly Beach, Hunting Island, Tybee Island and Sapelo Island.

Temps will be cooler than recent days due to the greater cloud cover arriving with the short wave and also developing due to the nearby warm front. With the in-situ wedge in place, we're looking for highs that will be near or slightly below climo.

Tonight: The initial short wave passes into the Atlantic by 06Z, which will put an end to the rain chances over northern Charleston and eastern Berkeley County. There is however a second short wave that will pass just to our north and northwest late. Maybe this spurs a few more showers late, but probabilities are held under 15%.

A bigger concern will be the potential for fog as stratus build down occurs as moisture becomes trapped underneath a strong wedge inversion. For now we have added patchy fog to all land areas after midnight since the SREF and HREF aren't "hitting" the fog too much. But given that the statistical guidance is showing category 1 visibilities and/or ceilings at many sites, the fog could become dense and more widespread.

Warm advection and the insulating effects of what will be considerable cloud cover will lead to temps holding fairly steady overnight after dropping several degrees this evening.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A warm front will lift north of the region on Monday, ahead of an approaching cold front that will be shifting into the Ohio River Valley. Strong low level jetting will allow warm, moist air to overspread the area. Despite the increase in moisture, lack of large scale forcing will support a dry forecast for both Monday and Tuesday. The more interesting note will be the temperatures. By Tuesday, highs are forecast to range from the upper 70s to around 80 near the Altamaha. These values will be within a few degrees of records (see climate section below). Monday night lows should be quite mild for mid December - around 20 degrees above normal. Fog development over land is not expected, but if any sea fog develops it could drift onshore. Models hint that the coverage of sea fog could be a bit higher Tuesday night, with a further inland extent.

The aforementioned cold front will cross the local area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The main shortwave associated with the front appears to be in a weakening state as it gets closer to our area, so the upper forcing for ascent will not be that impressive. There will be showers around, but widespread coverage is not anticipated. QPF should be light. It will be cooler on Wednesday than previous days as high pressure builds behind the front. Highs will be near normal.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Model solutions vary in the long term, so forecast confidence is low. Overall, the pattern favors cooler and relatively unsettled weather for late week. Strong high pressure will build in wake of a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. A coastal trough is then expected to develop before lifting north of the area. Thereafter, models show a wave of low pressure developing over the Gulf of Mexico and shifting across the Southeast. Large timing discrepancies with these features make the precipitation forecast uncertain. Refinements will be needed with future forecast packages as models come into better agreement.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. 18Z TAFs:

A high pressure wedge will strengthen inland, while a coastal warm front forms over the Atlantic. The warm front is expected to move inland tonight, causing moisture to increase while getting trapped underneath an inversion, resulting in flight restrictions.

CHS and SAV: VFR through early this evening. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop, then transition to IFR ceilings. Visibilities are also expected to deteriorate. The timing of the MVFR to IFR transition is somewhat uncertain at both airports, and it's possible the MVFR time window could be much shorter than what's forecasted. These details will get refined in future TAFs. Regardless of how low the conditions go, they are expected to improve towards the end of the TAF time period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible in night time and morning fog/stratus through early Wednesday. Additional flight restrictions could occur in showers associated with a cold front Tuesday night/early Wednesday.

MARINE. Today: The marine area will continue to experience a pinching of the gradient as a result of a nearby trough that evolves into a warm front, and an inland wedge of high pressure. This will result in a continuation of the ongoing Small Craft Advisories for all waters outside of Charleston Harbor. NE winds will average 15-20 kt with gusts of at least 25 kt, while seas will be as high as 4-6 ft within 20 nm and 5-7 ft on the outermost Georgia waters. Charleston Harbor winds will average 15 kt with some higher gusts. Showers will develop this afternoon, mainly on the Charleston County waters. We can't rule out an isolated T-storm or two on the AMZ350 waters since there is some weak instability and CAPE.

Tonight: A slackening gradient will develop as the warm front begins to lift north of the area, and we expect the advisories to come to an end early on the nearshore waters, but taking until after midnight for it to end on AMZ374. Stratus and/or fog over land areas will impact Charleston and Savannah Harbor after midnight, and we will maintain a watch for possible dense fog as well.

Monday through Friday: A warm front will lift north of the waters on Monday, allowing winds to become predominantly out of the south. Speeds will average 15 knots or less. A cold front is expected to pass through early Wednesday with marine conditions deteriorating in its wake. Strong northeast winds and building seas are expected to support Small Craft Advisories for all waters. Gale-force gusts will be possible as well, and Gale Watches and/or Warnings could be needed. The time period for potential gales looks to be late Wednesday night through Thursday. While some improvement is expected on Friday, elevated seas will likely keep Advisories in effect for at least portions of the waters.

Sea Fog: An abnormally warm and humid air mass will move in Monday and Tuesday, with a S-SW flow to occur. Provided that winds aren't too strong, sea fog formation will be possible across at least the nearshore coastal waters and at times even into Charleston Harbor, primarily beginning Monday night and potentially continuing into Tuesday night prior to cold frontal passage.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Astronomical high tides will already be in effect during the middle and latter part of this week, with the full moon on Thursday. With strong northeasterly winds, we anticipate that coastal flooding and beach erosion will become a problem. Details will be worked out as we draw closer to the event.

CLIMATE. Record Max Temps December 10th . KCHS . 82F set in 1972. KCXM . 79F set in 1943. KSAV . 82F set in 1972.

EQUIPMENT. KCLX is operating, but power output is extremely low. As a result, radar returns will generally remain weak. A technician will troubleshoot the problem today.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ350- 352-354. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ374.

NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . AVIATION . MARINE . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . CLIMATE . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 27 mi79 min NE 19 G 23 59°F 62°F6 ft1024 hPa (-1.6)57°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 42 mi39 min 63°F5 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 45 mi51 min N 8 G 17 63°F 61°F1024.4 hPa

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick / Glynco, GA7 mi74 minNE 1010.00 miOvercast58°F52°F83%1024.7 hPa
Brunswick, Malcolm McKinnon Airport, GA12 mi76 minNNE 1310.00 miOvercast56°F52°F87%1024.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBQK

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE15NE12NE9N5NE7NE6NE7NE5NE7NE8NE7NE9NE9NE9NE9NE9
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1 day agoW9NW4CalmW4CalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmN4CalmSW3CalmW3CalmE3CalmCalmNE6NE10E12NE13NE10
2 days agoNE5E11E7SE3E3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmSW9SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Jones Creek entrance, Hampton River, Georgia
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Jones Creek entrance
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Sun -- 03:35 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:54 AM EST     7.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:29 AM EST     1.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:19 PM EST     6.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:42 PM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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123.44.96.177.26.65.43.82.21.21.11.82.84.15.36.26.76.55.43.82.10.7

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tower, Sapelo Island, Georgia
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Old Tower
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:35 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:03 AM EST     6.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:29 AM EST     1.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:28 PM EST     6.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:42 PM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.12.33.85.36.46.96.65.64.43.11.91.11.11.93.14.55.76.36.35.64.531.60.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.