Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 5:54PM Thursday January 23, 2020 10:00 PM EST (03:00 UTC) Moonrise 6:28AMMoonset 4:49PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 902 Pm Est Thu Jan 23 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am est Friday...
Rest of tonight..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Friday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Friday night..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west northwest after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Saturday..West northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers.
Monday..North northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers.
Monday night..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..North northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 902 Pm Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Synopsis.. A weak ridge of high pressure will continue to shift northeastward tonight as a cold front approaches the coastal waters. A cold front will push through the waters late Friday afternoon through Friday night. High pressure will then build over the northern gulf coast on Saturday and then over the waters on Sunday. High pressure will weaken as an area of low pressure moves across southern florida on Monday. High pressure will build to the north and northwest of the area on Tuesday.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jan 23, 2020 at 1200 utc... 63 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 81 nautical miles east northeast of jacksonville beach. 80 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, GA
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location: 31.32, -81.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 240226 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 926 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. A storm system will impact the region tonight through Friday night. High pressure will then return this weekend before a few weak storm systems potentially affect the area early to mid next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Late this evening: No significant changes to the previous forecast. Previous discussion continues below.

Early this evening: Surface analysis shows a well developed cold air damming scenario inland across Georgia and the Carolinas with a sharp coastal front just offshore. Within the coastal trough, radar imagery shows that light showers are developing and attempting to push onshore. However, it appears that these showers are struggling to make inland thanks to lingering dry air as evidenced by temperature/dew point depressions on the order of 8 degrees and most observation sites are reporting mainly mid-level clouds. Still, can't rule out a few rain drops making it to the ground along the South Carolina coastal counties over the next few hours. Overnight, a well defined mid-level low will swing eastward toward the mid Mississippi Valley. This will help push a surface low toward the Ohio Valley region, while an associated cold front moves across the Deep South states. Through sunrise, model consensus is that most shower coverage will remain to the west and north closer to where the better forcing is aligned. Rain chances across the forecast area through much of the night will depend on low level convergence within the coastal trough zone. Rain chances for most of the area are low (no more than 20 percent), but there is a tier of 40-50 percent chances well inland where better coverage of showers would brush through late tonight. At some point, the coastal trough is going to be drawn inland and will lift north of the forecast area. However, it does not appear that this will take place until after sunrise. Temperatures will drop some over the next few hours, but should hold steady or begin to rise slightly late tonight. Overall, lows in the mid to upper 40s are expected inland, with low 50s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. Moderate to high confidence through Friday night, then high confidence thereafter. A warm front will be shifting north through the area Friday while an upper trough approaches from the west allowing for a slightly more unstable airmass to move in from the south and west. This will lead to a few morning showers and then likely an increase in shower coverage along with a few thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Can't rule out a few stronger to possibly severe storms with damaging winds and/or tornadoes but the risk appears quite low at this time given the limited instability. Rain chances will end from southwest to northeast Friday night as a cold front moves through leading to cooler and drier conditions this weekend. Temperatures will be above normal Friday, then return to near/below normal levels this weekend.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Sfc high pressure will gradually weaken across the area Sunday night into Monday while an upper disturbance and weak surface low pressure system crosses the Southeast U.S., and this could lead to a few showers during this time. Dry high pressure should then prevail through Tuesday night, before another low pressure system tracks across the Deep South and arrives over the Southeast midweek. Isolated to scattered showers are possible Wednesday and Thursday until the system shifts offshore.

In general, high temps should range in the upper 50s/lower 60s Sunday and Monday, then warm into the lower/middle 60s Tuesday, followed by middle/upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows should dip into the upper 30s inland to lower 40s near the coast Sunday night and Monday night, then remain in the lower/mid 40s Tuesday night and upper 40s/lower 50s Wednesday night.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. We begin with VFR conditions at both sites and that should hold for the next several hours. Overnight, there is good model agreement that MVFR ceilings will develop before the coastal trough pushes through the terminals after sunrise. Current thinking is that MVFR will prevail, but can't totally rule out IFR conditions for a period of time. Confidence in IFR isn't particularly high though. The coastal trough will lift through Friday morning and winds will turn from northeasterly to southerly by Friday afternoon. While there could be isolated to scattered showers around KCHS and KSAV, model consensus is that we will have to wait until the late afternoon or evening hours before showers immediately along the front arrive. Have kept the mention of showers out at KCHS, and brought prevailing showers into KSAV during the afternoon hours. There is some potential for thunder with the band of showers associated with the front, but certainly not enough confidence at this point to introduce thunder to the forecast.

Extended Aviation Outlook: High confidence Friday night through Tuesday. Periodic restrictions expected Friday night due to low clouds/showers/possible thunderstorms associated with a cold front moving through the area. VFR conditions expected Saturday through Sunday night with a low risk of restrictions Monday as an upper disturbance moves through, then VFR again through Tuesday.

MARINE. Tonight: Northeast winds this evening will gradually veer to the east/southeast late tonight as a coastal trough shifts inland. The pressure gradient will relax and speeds should settle down to 10 to 15 kt by daybreak. Seas will also be subsiding, and the Small Craft Advisories for coastal waters Edisto Beach south to the Altamaha River should be able to come down in the early morning hours. The Advisories for the Charleston county waters and outer Georgia waters will continue as 6 ft seas persist.

Friday through Tuesday: High confidence through the period. A warm front will move north through the area Friday followed by a cold front Friday night. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for the Charleston County nearshore waters through Friday morning, although could go longer as seas may only temporarily subside below 6 feet. The Small Craft Advisory for the offshore waters will remain in effect through Saturday night as it will take longer for 6+ ft seas to subside there. Otherwise, no significant concerns this weekend through early next week as high pressure generally prevails.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ352-354. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ374. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ350.



NEAR TERM . BSH SHORT TERM . RJB LONG TERM . DPB/RJB AVIATION . BSH/RJB MARINE . ETM/RJB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 27 mi71 min ENE 14 G 16 59°F 57°F6 ft1019.1 hPa (+0.0)59°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 42 mi31 min 57°F6 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 45 mi43 min N 5.1 G 8

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KBQK

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Jones Creek entrance, Hampton River, Georgia
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Jones Creek entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:50 AM EST     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:02 AM EST     7.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:35 PM EST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:09 PM EST     6.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.50.11.334.86.47.47.87.35.93.81.5-0-0.20.51.93.65.16.36.76.353.2

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tower, Sapelo Island, Georgia
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Old Tower
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:50 AM EST     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST     7.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:35 PM EST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:18 PM EST     6.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.50.21.73.65.56.87.47.26.24.72.91.1-0.1-0.20.72.44.25.76.46.25.342.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.