Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Red Level, AL

FXUS64 KMOB 210101 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 801 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

New Aviation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Now through Monday night...
Through Monday night, an upper trof over the Plains lifts off across the northeastern states, and in the process an associated surface low brings a weakening cold front into the region which looks to stall roughly across the northern half of Mississippi/Alabama. A moist southerly flow continues over the forecast area meanwhile, with deep layer moisture steadily increasing mostly along and west of I-65. Mostly dry conditions are expected tonight except for slight chance pops late tonight over southeast Mississippi. For Monday, will have slight chance to likely pops along and west of I- 65, with the highest pops over portions of southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama. Slight chance to chance pops follow for Monday night along and west of I-65. Lows tonight and Monday night will typically be in the lower to mid 60s, and highs on Monday will be in the lower to mid 80s, except for around 80 at the immediate coast. A High Risk of rip currents is expected through Monday night.
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Tuesday through Sunday...
An upper ridge stretching north along the east coast from high pressure off the Florida coast has begun to rotate clockwise by Tuesday morning, and is expected to continue to shift west as it rotates, to over the Atlantic Ocean. This leaves zonal upper flow over the Southeast by Wednesday. An upper level shortwave over the Southeast moves off Tuesday, with a surface cold front that has moved north of the forecast area providing the focus for showers and thunderstorm to mainly areas northwest of I-65. Guidance is showing a tendency for the stalled boundary to remain north of the forecast area, decreasing the chances of localized overrunning precipitation and flooding issues. South of the front, guidance continues to advertise MLCapes topping out in the 1500-2000J/kg range, as high temperatures top out around 80 over areas northwest of I-65. DCapes rise to around 600-800 J/kg in combination, leading to a few stronger storms mixing in. Bulk Wind Shear is modest at best, around 20kts, and with a linear profile in the hodographs, organized storms are not expected. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday as another round of shortwave energy passes, with best coverage remains well northwest of I-65. Thursday into the weekend, an upper level ridge builds over the Plains and shifts east. Precipitable h20 levels drop as onshore flow weakens, from 1.4"-1.6" over the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday to around 1.0"-1.2" by the weekend. Another weak surface front moves towards the forecast area into the weekend, stalling near the northern border by Saturday and providing the focus for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures remain at or above seasonal norms Tuesday into the coming weekend. High temperatures range from around 80 west of I-65 and along the coast, low to mid 80s east Tuesday. Temperatures see an upward trend through the week, to mid/upper 80s well inland, low 80s to near 80 south of I-10 to the coast by Friday as the upper ridge approaches. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s Tuesday night see some of the same upward trend as subsidence increases as the upper ridge builds over the Plains, but the decrease in moisture levels limit the the rise to a few degrees. Mid to upper 60s expected for Saturday night.

A High Risk of Rip Currents is expected into Tuesday, then decreases into mid week as the onshore flow weakens and tidal range decreases.
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