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GMZ655 Expires:202312030415;;773876 Fzus54 Kmob 021520 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 920 am cst Sat dec 2 2023
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height...which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz650-655-030415- coastal waters from pensacola fl to pascagoula ms out 20 nm- coastal waters from okaloosa walton county line fl to pensacola fl out 20 nm- 920 am cst Sat dec 2 2023
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, subsiding to 3 to 4 feet early. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 920 Am Cst Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis..Moderate southeast to southerly flow persists into Sunday. A light to moderate offshore flow becomes established Sunday night into early next week in the wake of a cold front.

FXUS64 KMOB 021116 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 516 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility persist across the entire region today into tonight thanks to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. A cold front moves across the area late tonight into Sunday morning, bringing a wind shift from southerlies to westerlies prior to daybreak Sunday morning. MM/25

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 358 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 358 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

A messy convective evolution has been ongoing the past few hours across the region. A shortwave transiting the area has been responsible for widespread showers and a few thunderstorms continuing to progress eastward. Expect this to remain the case through the morning hours with scattered to widespread showers and storms. Surface based instability has failed to move adequately onshore, and with extensive convection ongoing offshore over the marine waters I find it hard to believe we get any appreciable SBCAPE for anything more than an isolated severe storm. With that said, MLCAPE values up to around 500j/kg exists across coastal counties of AL/FL panhandle which may contribute to a low end threat for strong wind gusts. At this point in time, with muted low level shear evident per recent KMOB VAD data showing sfc-1km SRH values below 100 to 150 m2/s2, the tornado threat appears to have diminished. Elongated mid level hodographs would continue to favor potential for some small hail in storms, particularly in any left split elevated supercells north of the surface boundary draped along the coast. Given the extensive convection ongoing over the marine waters, I don't anticipate the environment on the coast to change much through the morning hours. The severe threat will likely remain fairly limited with a strong to damaging wind gust possible across coastal counties into the afternoon hours.

For the rest of the day, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to remain possible, with best chances shifting east of the I-65 corridor by the afternoon hours. We see renewed chances for showers and storms tonight into Sunday morning as another shortwave pushes across the area. The surface cold front starts working its way through the CWA late tonight into Sunday morning, finally ushering in drier, cooler air as we head into Sunday afternoon and evening. Expect high temperatures today to top out in the lower to middle 70's, dipping into the upper 50's inland and lower to middle 60's nearer the coast tonight. Sunday will be a bit cooler, with highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's.

The overall threat for flash flooding appears to have diminished a bit as well considering the convective evolution so far this morning.
Storms have been a bit more progressive and have not had a tendency to train very much, and storms later this morning into tonight will not have as much potential to train repeatedly over the same areas.
Despite this, still expect an additional inch or two of rainfall over the forecast area, particularly nearer the coast. A high risk of rip currents remains in place through Sunday afternoon. MM/25

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday) Issued at XXXXXX

A reinforcing, dry front slips across the region on Monday. Flow aloft briefly turns zonal through Tuesday night in the wake of the second shortwave and a surface high builds overhead. Yet another dry front in the seemingly never- ending parade of cold fronts will dive across the area late Tuesday into Wednesday before a surface ridge builds into the region through the end of the work week. We will likely remain in this dry pattern until the following Monday.

Daytime temperatures become more seasonable early next week, while somewhat cooler by mid-week (highs in the 50s) in the wake of the cold fronts. Lows will be chilly next week with the coldest temperatures occurring Wednesday night into Thursday morning with lows plunging into the 30s across much of the area (low 40s at the beaches). 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 358 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Moderate to occasionally strong southeast to southerly flow persists today, becoming moderate for the weekend. Winds will likely remain as SCEC level offshore tonight through Saturday, which will be hazardous for small craft. Winds and seas will also be locally higher near showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will move east across the marine area late Saturday and early Sunday, with a of a moderate offshore flow becoming established Sunday night into the early part of next week. /12

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 74 62 71 51 66 42 63 43 / 90 70 10 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 74 66 72 56 66 45 62 47 / 90 80 30 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 75 68 74 58 69 48 64 49 / 100 80 40 10 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 75 61 71 47 66 37 64 39 / 100 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 72 59 69 47 64 37 63 40 / 90 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 72 59 69 46 62 37 61 38 / 90 80 10 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 74 63 74 48 68 38 64 40 / 100 90 40 10 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None.
GM...None.

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Milton
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:56 AM CST     1.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:03 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:33 PM CST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:46 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:40 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Milton, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Bay Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:40 AM CST     1.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:03 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:13 PM CST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:46 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:40 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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