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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 932 Am Cst Fri Dec 8 2023
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of rain in the evening.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 932 Am Cst Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
high pressure has pushed well east of the area and onshore flow has already gotten underway and will continue until the next cold front moves through overnight Saturday. The pressure gradient tomorrow may be tight enough to get some moderate southerly winds which could call for scs headlines but the main impacts will be post frontal Sunday. Very strong northwesterly to northerly winds will quickly develop after the front moves which should be early Sunday morning. Winds could approach gales or at least frequent gusts could and a gale watch may need to be issued today for most if not all coastal waters for Sunday. At the very least there will be scy headlines with gusts near 40 kt. High pressure slowly builds in through midweek with offshore winds and seas subsiding.

FXUS64 KJAN 081752 AAC AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1152 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

New AVIATION

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Rest of today...

A mostly quiet & moderating aftn is expected. Morning upper air/RAP/water vapor analysis indicates shortwave trough moving across the northern Gulf Coast region, with increased mid-high moist advection. PWs have climbed to around an inch, with moist ascent in the mid-high layers. This is keeping widespread cloud shield across the region. However, low-level WAA is still progged to help highs warm some +5 degrees above normal in the upper 60s to low 70s. Increased ascent & deepening moisture will continue to aid in some increased radar returns & shower coverage to develop.
The best light rain chances look to remain across the western half, mainly northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor. Updates will be out shortly, with no major changes needed. /DC/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 354 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Today through tonight: Increasing warm advection ahead of a significant upper level trough will bring milder and more humid conditions to the forecast area as we go through tonight. A minor disturbance in southwest flow aloft should help initiate a few showers later today into this evening. Any rainfall in our area will be light during the near term and mostly confined to western and northern portions of the area. /EC/

Saturday through Thursday night: The main focus in the extended will be the strong storm system moving across the area Saturday through Saturday night. By Saturday afternoon the cold front will be poised across the Delta, with increasing development of showers/storms. The front will move across the area during the afternoon through the evening hours, before moving east of the area after midnight. With good instability, steep mid level lapse rates and decent shear, severe storms are likely. Initially there could be a few more cellular storms, but as the day progresses, expect the storms to become more linear as the line of storms progresses across the area. Expect the primary risk to be damaging wind gusts and large hail, but a few tornadoes will be possible.
A slight risk is already in effect for most of the area, with a marginal risk for the east and southeast.

A few showers could linger in the east Saturday night, but expect all of the activity to be east of the area by Sunday morning. Much cooler air will build in behind the front on Sunday, with highs ranging from the mid 40s across the delta to the mid 50s in the Pine Belt Region. High pressure will build across the are Sunday night into Monday, with lows ranging from the upper 20s to low 30s. High pressure will continue through the end of the period, with mostly sunny skies and highs in mid/upper 50s and lows in the 30s each day./15/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

VFR conditions prevail across the region, but a broken to overcast stratus deck exists around 7-9kft and scattered -SHRA are moving across the region. Late this evening through Saturday morning, ceilings are expected to fall to MVFR areawide with IFR to LIFR possible mainly across east and southeast MS where visibility reductions are also possible around daybreak due to fog. Ceiling improvements are expected during the mid morning to midday hours with most areas returning to VFR by afternoon. Scattered SHRA will continue to be possible through the TAF period with perhaps an isolated TS. Southerly winds may gust to around 20 kt at times.
/DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 69 60 77 42 / 20 40 70 90 Meridian 69 57 77 45 / 10 40 60 100 Vicksburg 71 61 78 42 / 20 40 90 90 Hattiesburg 71 58 78 49 / 10 20 50 100 Natchez 70 61 78 42 / 30 30 70 90 Greenville 66 60 74 41 / 30 50 90 70 Greenwood 67 60 74 41 / 20 50 90 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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Bay Waveland Yacht Club
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:22 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:59 AM CST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:41 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:59 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:56 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:00 PM CST     1.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, Tide feet

Waveland
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:22 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:49 AM CST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:41 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:59 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:56 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:02 PM CST     1.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Waveland, Mississipi Sound, Mississippi, Tide feet

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