Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 5:40 AM   Moonset 8:11 PM

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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 330 Pm Edt Wed May 8 2024
Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight, then becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 10 seconds. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening. Fri - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. Showers and tstms likely. Fri night - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 4 seconds and S 2 ft at 6 seconds. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening. Sat - N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: nw 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 2 ft at 6 seconds. Sat night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Mon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 330 Pm Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - A cold front will approach the area Thursday night, then move offshore Friday. High pressure will prevail for the weekend into early next week. A storm system is possible by the middle of next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 082046 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 446 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will approach the area Thursday night, then move offshore Friday. High pressure will prevail for the weekend into early next week. A storm system is possible by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
This evening and tonight: High pressure will continue to extend westward into the forecast area through the overnight. We currently expect the area to remain dry through the overnight, but can't completely rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm brushing the northern tier of the area later this evening or overnight. This would primarily be an issue for northern Dorchester or Berkeley counties. This potential hinges convection developing across the Midlands and drifting further south into the northern reaches of Dorchester or Berkeley. The overall chance looks low which is why the forecast is dry, but certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Skies should remain mostly clear, other than some cirrus debris potentially passing through. It will be a very mild night, with most areas not falling below 70.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
Thursday and Friday: The mid-levels will consist of zonal flow over the Southeast U.S. Thursday morning. A shortwave will be embedded in the flow, moving over our area Thursday afternoon or evening. Troughing will strengthen over the Great Lakes Region on Friday, with amplification expected down towards our region by late Friday. At the surface, Low pressure will be near the OH Valley Thursday morning. This Low will gradually shift eastward with time, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by late Friday. A cold front attached to the Low will approach from the northwest Thursday. It'll be located just to our northwest early Friday morning. The front should slowly move through our area from northwest to southeast Friday afternoon, shifting offshore Friday evening. The main focus will be the severe potential Thursday, followed by possibly a second round on Friday.
Thursday morning should be dry, with any convection going on well to our west. This line is expected to shift eastward during the day, and into our area. There will be a deep plume of moisture ahead of this line with PWATs rising to ~2". This is well above normal for this time of year, above the 90% mark for CHS per the SPC Sounding Climatology. In addition to this moisture will be above normal temperatures. Highs will peak in the lower to middle 90s, which is near record values for this date. So there will be plenty of moisture and heat in place across our area, which will be supportive of severe thunderstorms. MLCAPE values should peak in the 1,500-2,000 J/kg range. Lapse rates will be steep, especially in the lower levels, Additionally, nearly unidirectional 0-6 km shear should be in the 40-50 kt range. So the main threat will be damaging winds, possibly widespread, large hail, and maybe even an isolated tornado. The SPC has upgraded portions of our area to an Enhanced risk, and this seems reasonable given the environmental setup. The main question will be the timing and evolution of the storms. The CAMs have a MCV moving through our area, ranging from the very late morning through the afternoon.
The synoptic models also hint at this, more towards the later afternoon. Since any lines of convection tend to move faster than the models, we're anticipating it to reach our far inland counties early in the afternoon, making it to our coastline by later in the afternoon, then offshore by the evening. The line will be moving at a decent speed, so the severe threat at any one location should only be around for maybe an hour or two. In addition to the already mentioned hazards, locally heavy downpours are expected, with flooding possible in the typical low-lying and poorly drained areas. But the risk of widespread areal flooding is low. Once the convection moves through, their should be some remnant showers persisting into the evening, with a potential lull for a brief time overnight. Then, another round of convection is possible Friday morning into the afternoon. The models are starting to hint that the instability and moisture setup could be similar on Friday compared to Thursday. But this doesn't mean that we'll have identical severe impacts on Friday. What happens on Friday will depend partly on what happens Thursday. The SPC has our area under a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Friday, and this seems reasonable. We wouldn't be surprised if it got upgraded further. Otherwise, we have likely POPs for most of the day Friday with high temperatures near normal. Convection will finally end from inland to coastal locations Friday evening, as the front moves through. Friday overnight is expected to be dry. Clearing skies will yield temperatures from the mid 50s far inland to the lower/middle 60s along the immediate coast.

Saturday: Mid-level troughing will persist over the East Coast.
High pressure will build in from the west, bringing much drier conditions. Expect mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure will bring dry conditions and seasonal temperatures this weekend through early next week. Models then suggest that a storm system could move across our area starting late Monday and possibly lasting through Wednesday. There remains uncertainty in the models, so we didn't stray away from the blend, which has a period of likely POPs. But this aspect of the forecast will need to be adjusted with future updates.

AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 18z Thursday. Any Thursday thunderstorm activity is expected to arrive after 18z at the TAF sites.

Extended Aviation Outlook: A front will bring periods of flight restrictions Thursday afternoon through Friday. Convection is most likely Thursday afternoon, with very strong winds possible.
VFR will return for the weekend.

MARINE
Tonight: Winds will remain 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots (and a few gusts approaching 25 knots) will continue along the land/sea interface into the early evening hours. We will maintain enough gradient overnight to yield elevated south to southwest flow across the local waters. A solid 15-20 knots is expected for periods of time. Seas will increase, becoming 2-4 feet on average, and up to 5 feet in the outer Georgia waters.

Thursday through Friday: A strong cold front will approach Thursday causing SW winds to increase. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected across our Charleston waters Thursday afternoon and evening due to gusts around 25 kt, and again Friday night behind the front. Additionally, there will be the potential for strong thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, following by a second round Friday late morning or afternoon. The timing of thunderstorms remains unclear, but any storms that do develop and move across the waters will be capable of producing strong wind gusts.

Saturday through Monday: Marine conditions will rapidly improve this weekend as weak high pressure builds in from the west. By Saturday, winds will drop to 10-15 kt and seas to 3 ft or less through Monday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Dog Hammock
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Wed -- 03:25 AM EDT     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:27 AM EDT     7.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:31 PM EDT     -0.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:48 PM EDT     9.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dog Hammock, Sapelo River, Georgia, Tide feet

South Newport River
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Wed -- 03:50 AM EDT     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:31 AM EDT     7.96 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:56 PM EDT     -1.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:52 PM EDT     9.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

South Newport River, Georgia, Tide feet

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