Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 2:41 AM   Moonset 1:40 PM

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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay-southern Mobile Bay-mississippi Sound- 910 Pm Cdt Wed May 1 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Thursday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, diminishing to around 5 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 910 Pm Cdt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist through the end of week and into the weekend as surface high pressure ridges into the southeast states from the western atlantic. Slightly higher winds will be possible each afternoon near the coast in association with an enhanced seas breeze circulation.

FXUS64 KMOB 020026 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 726 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail into the overnight as winds quickly relax becoming light and variable. Low ceilings and fog are expected to develop after midnight with VLIFR ceilings and LIFR to VLIFR visbys developing mainly along and north of interstate 10.
Reduced visbys will persist into the morning before mixing out shortly after sunrise. Winds will turn more southerly during the day as VFR conditions return. BB/03

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 319 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The main forecast concern for the near term will be the potential for dense fog overnight. Broad surface ridging extending from the western Atlantic will keep winds light for the overnight hours.
The combination of light winds and clear skies will set the stage for low stratus and fog formation overnight. Hi-res ensembles indicate the high probabilities of visibilities less than 1 mile over much of the region overnight with a 40-60% chance of 1/4 mile visibility. The exception to this is the far inland areas (north of 84) where probabilities are lower. Best time for fog formation will be after midnight with best potential for 1/4 mile visibilities being in the pre-dawn hours to an hour or two after sunrise. Have included areas of fog in the forecast for the vast majority of the forecast area after midnight. We will have to closely monitor trends for the possible issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory.

Any fog and low stratus that develop will dissipate by 9-10am Thursday, similar to what we saw this morning. Our attention then turns to a shortwave that will move into LA/MS from TX on Thursday afternoon. The shortwave will likely dampen out as it moves further east into the TN Valley Thursday night. The big question is if this shortwave will be strong enough to trigger an convective activity in the western parts of the forecast area.
There will be a tight moisture gradient in place with precipitable waters of less than an inch holding serve in the eastern half of the area. Deep layer moisture could rebound enough in the western zones to support low end rain chances. Some of the CAM solutions indicate these areas could be affected by a decaying MCS. Will only introduce slight chances for rain at this point and will monitor trends.

Lows drop into the 60s tonight with highs warming into the mid to upper 80s once again Thursday afternoon, with slightly cooler readings along the immediate coast. 34/JFB

SHORT & LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The overall synoptic pattern will not change much through mid next week with predominate upper troughing over the central and western states and a broad upper ridge over the eastern third of the country. This in general will keep the best rain chances well to our north and west. However, there are some uncertainties to contend with as guidance shows a series of subtle shortwaves ejecting out of southwest flow over northern Mexico and Texas that move into the lower MS Valley through this weekend. The impact of these disturbances is somewhat uncertain, but could serve to trigger at least isolated diurnal convection during the afternoon hours. One such shortwave will increase rain chances slightly on Friday afternoon over the western half of the area. By this weekend, we will have to monitor for the possibility of increasing rain chances slightly over inland locations. However, even in a 'wetter' scenario, rain coverage would remain fairly isolated.

What is more certain is that warm daytime temperatures will persist and gradually increase further by early next week. Next Tuesday and Wednesday could see our first widespread low 90 temps over inland locations. We are slowly saying bye to spring and hello to summer along the northern Gulf coast. 34/JFB

MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Patchy fog is possible overnight into early Thursday morning, primarily over the inland bays and sounds. Otherwise, no significant marine impacts are expected for the next several days.
A light onshore flow will persist with little change in seas.
Winds will be slightly strong in area bays with the afternoon seabreeze. 34/JFB

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 65 84 67 82 67 85 66 86 / 0 10 20 20 10 10 0 0 Pensacola 67 81 69 82 68 83 68 83 / 0 0 10 10 0 10 0 0 Destin 68 80 69 81 70 83 70 83 / 0 0 0 10 0 10 0 10 Evergreen 62 88 63 86 62 88 63 90 / 0 0 10 20 10 20 10 10 Waynesboro 62 88 65 84 63 88 63 90 / 0 10 20 30 20 20 10 10 Camden 60 87 65 84 63 86 63 88 / 0 0 10 20 20 20 10 10 Crestview 62 87 62 87 63 88 63 89 / 0 0 0 10 10 20 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Lower Hall Landing
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Thu -- 02:41 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:25 AM CDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:42 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:31 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:19 PM CDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
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Thu -- 02:42 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:15 AM CDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:43 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:07 PM CDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:31 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama (2) (expired 1989-12-31), Tide feet

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