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FXUS65 KTWC 030921 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 221 AM MST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cold overnight temperatures this weekend into Monday.
It will be dry next week with high temperatures running 8-12 degrees above normal.

DISCUSSION
Surface observations across SE Arizona at 2 am showed temperatures ranging from the mid-twenties to the upper forties. The coldest temperatures were located in the Sulphur Spring valley of Cochise county while the warmest were across western Pima county. After a cold start, temperatures will be around 4 to 8 degrees warmer than yesterday.

Warming trend will continue through mid-week as upper heights and low level thickness values rise. Highs Tue thru Thu will run 8 to 12 degrees above normal. Latest NBM guidance suggests highs will cool back down toward normal by Saturday.

AVIATION
Valid through 04/12Z.
SKC with patches of clouds AOA 20k ft MSL passing thru during valid pd. SFC winds vrbl less than 8 kts across the area becoming northwesterly after at 5-10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts this afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry and cool Sunday. Dry conditions will continue through the new work week with temperature becoming much warmer.
Winds generally light, less than 15 mph sustained, with a bit of afternoon gustiness at times well into next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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