Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sierra Vista, AZ
May 20, 2024 3:19 AM MST (10:19 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:19 AM Sunset 7:15 PM Moonrise 4:50 PM Moonset 3:29 AM |
FXUS65 KTWC 200844 AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 144 AM MST Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weak trough will bring several degrees of cooling along with gusty afternoon winds this week. A slight chance of dry thunderstorms later this afternoon, otherwise dry conditions through the week with typical late May temperatures in the 90s for most locations.
DISCUSSION
A weak low is shearing into the base of a broader mean trough position that is developing over the Great Basin and intermountain west. With our area sandwiched between this and a strong ridge across Mexico we'll see breezy to locally wind conditions developing across SE AZ by late morning and early afternoon. Still seeing some notable increase in ensemble mean integrated WV transport, with mean specific humidities increasing above H7. Short range ensembles suggesting a modest but notable increase in shear as well. HRRR is keeping best chances of isolated convection north of us, but we could still see a few buildups later this afternoon with a stray lightning strike or two possible.
Initial impulses will lift into the central plains with a zonal flow late Tuesday into early Wednesday before additional energy reinforces the trough mainly north of our area the second half of the week. That will keep things relatively dry this far south, but should continue to bring gusty afternoon winds most days while also maintaining temps near or a little above climo.
AVIATION
Valid through 21/12Z SCT-BKN AOA 12K FT AGL. SFC winds around 8-10 kts will become light and variable overnight. Light winds early, becoming westerly at 12-20 kts after 20/17Z with stronger gusts in the afternoon.
Winds diminishing aver 21/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions continue this week with min RHs in the single digits for the lower valleys and the teens for the higher terrain.
Generally poor overnight recoveries. Weak weather systems passing to our north will bring gusty afternoon winds most days, especially Monday. With the low RHs, higher winds, and the dry fuels a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Monday morning through Monday evening for most lower elevations east of Tucson.
In addition, there is potential for isolated dry thunderstorms late Monday, with most activity probably north of the area.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ152.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 144 AM MST Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weak trough will bring several degrees of cooling along with gusty afternoon winds this week. A slight chance of dry thunderstorms later this afternoon, otherwise dry conditions through the week with typical late May temperatures in the 90s for most locations.
DISCUSSION
A weak low is shearing into the base of a broader mean trough position that is developing over the Great Basin and intermountain west. With our area sandwiched between this and a strong ridge across Mexico we'll see breezy to locally wind conditions developing across SE AZ by late morning and early afternoon. Still seeing some notable increase in ensemble mean integrated WV transport, with mean specific humidities increasing above H7. Short range ensembles suggesting a modest but notable increase in shear as well. HRRR is keeping best chances of isolated convection north of us, but we could still see a few buildups later this afternoon with a stray lightning strike or two possible.
Initial impulses will lift into the central plains with a zonal flow late Tuesday into early Wednesday before additional energy reinforces the trough mainly north of our area the second half of the week. That will keep things relatively dry this far south, but should continue to bring gusty afternoon winds most days while also maintaining temps near or a little above climo.
AVIATION
Valid through 21/12Z SCT-BKN AOA 12K FT AGL. SFC winds around 8-10 kts will become light and variable overnight. Light winds early, becoming westerly at 12-20 kts after 20/17Z with stronger gusts in the afternoon.
Winds diminishing aver 21/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions continue this week with min RHs in the single digits for the lower valleys and the teens for the higher terrain.
Generally poor overnight recoveries. Weak weather systems passing to our north will bring gusty afternoon winds most days, especially Monday. With the low RHs, higher winds, and the dry fuels a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Monday morning through Monday evening for most lower elevations east of Tucson.
In addition, there is potential for isolated dry thunderstorms late Monday, with most activity probably north of the area.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ152.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFHU SIERRA VISTA MUNILIBBY AAF,AZ | 2 sm | 24 min | calm | 9 sm | Clear | 68°F | 21°F | 17% | 30.02 |
Tucson, AZ,
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