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FXUS64 KSHV 011819 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 119 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue in Southeast Oklahoma in a warm air advection. While it is uncertain how much longer this activity will persist, latest radar trends suggest at least some portions of McCurtain County will be affected within the next hour or two. There has been some steady weakening over the last couple of hours, so this convection should gradually diminish with eastward extent through early this afternoon. PoPs were increased through 18z (1 PM CDT) to account for this and slight chance PoPs were maintained for early this afternoon. Elsewhere, the forecast appears largely on track. Some minor adjustments were also made to the latest Sky grids based on latest satellite trends.

Updated text products have been sent.

CN

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 457 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Unauthorized convection associated from two separate thunderstorm complexes that originated over Srn and NE OK have consolidated over portions of extreme NE TX and SE OK, and continue an ESE movement along their respective cold pools along a narrow instability axis over this area. The latest mesoanalysis indicates indicates a drier and more stable air mass farther E into SW AR and closer to the I-20 corridor of E TX, with the expectation that this convection will continue to gradually weaken through/shortly after daybreak, as none of the short term progs have handled the evolution of this convection well this morning.

The morning sfc analysis also indicates a gradient of theta-e bisecting the Wrn sections of E TX into SE TX/S LA, with this gradient expected to gradually lift N and E later today across portions of E TX. However, the warmer and more moist air to the W of this bndry will quickly overtake the region tonight, as a Srly LLJ develops ahead of a developing shortwave trough that will take shape late this afternoon over far W TX, ahead of upper troughing that will dig through the Nrn and Cntrl Rockies. This lead shortwave will enhance deep convection development this afternoon in VC of the dryline, which should eventually develop into an Ewd propagating MCS which will surge E across the Hill County/Cntrl TX this evening into E/SE TX overnight. The GFS remains the fastest with the progression of this MCS, outrunning the various CAMs and NAM, but all are in agreement that widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3+ inches are possible across much of E TX late tonight before spreading into N LA by/after daybreak Thursday. Given the still saturated grounds in wake of widespread heavy rain that fell Sunday evening through Monday morning, have issued a Flood Watch for the I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA and areas to the S from 06Z Thursday through 00Z Friday. Because of the faster progression and more Srly solution of the MCS via this morning's progs vs Tuesday morning, the earlier Moderate Day 3 ERO (from Tuesday) has fast forwarded to the late period of the Day 1, with the Moderate Risk focused on areas of Cntrl/SE TX which received significant rains/flooding just a few days ago. A Slight Risk ERO remains for much of our region though, and as long as this MCS continues this fast Ewd progression, any flooding will be localized at best, although additional rises on area waterways are possible.

Did maintain high end likely/categorical pops areawide Thursday, with max temps significantly tapered back than what is expected today, with readings well into the upper 80s or evening nearing 90 degrees. It remains to be seen though how much redevelopment will take place in wake of the MCS passage Thursday morning, with some of the progs suggesting additional redevelopment that will tail back behind the MCS across portions of Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, hence the reason why the Flood Watch was pushed out to 00Z Friday.

Thank you WFO's FWD/HGX/LCH and WPC for your coordination this morning.

15

LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 457 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The progs continue to suggest that a weak sfc front will nudge into portions of SE OK/SW AR and possibly extreme NE TX Thursday night before becoming stationary, with the flow aloft again transitioning to SW ahead of additional upper troughing from the Pac NW into the Great Basin. Thus, perturbations in this flow as well as the deep moisture in place will be sufficient for the redevelopment of scattered to numerous convection ahead of the approaching weak sfc front Thursday night and Friday. Given the very dirty flow aloft and the progs inability to handle these disturbances well, do not have enough confidence to push the Flood Watch out any further, although this may be a possibility in later forecasts. The convection may tend to become more diurnal in nature late Friday, diminishing with the loss of heating by Friday night, before redeveloping during the day Saturday.

Unfortunately, no change to the weather pattern/SW flow is expected this weekend, with scattered mainly diurnal convection continuing. However, this convection may be influenced by remnants of upstream convection that would develop across portions of KS/OK, which may send mesoscale bndrys SE to focus convection over our area this weekend. SW flow aloft looks to become enhanced once again by early next week, ahead of deep troughing that will dig through the Four Corners Region before ejecting NE across the Srn Rockies into the Cntrl Plains Monday. It remains to be seen how much forcing ahead of this ejecting trough will be the catalyst for convection over NE TX/SE OK/SW AR Monday, although the progs remain consistent that a deeper wedge of drier air and increased capping associated with ridging that will build from the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley may help to limit the extent of convection development over much of the region. A deeper SW unidirectional flow which also translates to the sfc by Tuesday should yield the hottest temps so far this Spring season, with lower 90s becoming widespread from Lower E TX across N LA, spreading N across the remainder of the region by the end of the forecast period Wednesday. Unfortunately, the end result given the persistent high humidity will be heat indices topping the mid and upper 90s by midweek next week.

15

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, Chamber day going with SFC SE 5-15KT that will continue this cycle. Deepening southerly flow aloft too with S/SE10-25KT and fair skies now, but some 3-5KT cu will SCT ovhd this aftn and then overnight, skies becoming cloudy with some MVFR/IFR cigs 06-12Z. Flight winds are W/SW with an upper level disturbance over W TX now that will be arriving early with TS activity prevailing for much of the daylight morning hrs. The bulk of early convection will spread across the MS River by 18Z.
/24/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 89 69 78 70 / 0 50 90 60 MLU 89 67 80 67 / 0 0 70 60 DEQ 86 64 75 63 / 30 40 90 70 TXK 88 67 77 67 / 20 40 80 70 ELD 88 66 77 65 / 0 10 80 70 TYR 88 67 80 70 / 10 80 90 60 GGG 88 68 79 69 / 10 80 90 60 LFK 89 69 81 70 / 20 80 90 50

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for TXZ136>138-149>153-165>167.

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