Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nacogdoches, TX
December 7, 2024 5:54 PM CST (23:54 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:04 AM Sunset 5:16 PM Moonrise 12:11 PM Moonset 11:40 PM |
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS64 KSHV 071955 AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 155 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 152 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
This evening will see renewed rounds of rainfall tracking into the ArkLaTex out of central and southeast Texas, driven by westerly and southwesterly flow aloft, on the western periphery of an upper level ridge whose axis is pushing east over the lower Mississippi Valley.
Meanwhile, a deep upper level trough and associated closed low over eastern New Mexico and west Texas will eject northeastward from the eastern Rockies over the Great Plains tonight and through the day Sunday. The low looks to weaken while the trough loses its definition, and while these features will be deteriorating, they will serve to maintain our southwesterly flow regime aloft, resulting in areawide rainfall chances continuing overnight and through the day tomorrow, before starting to come to an end from northwest to southeast for our Oklahoma and Texas zones tomorrow night. Additional rainfall totals look to range from a few tenths of an inch to between one and one and a half inches.
Based on persistent cloud cover for much of the region and resulting insulation effects, a fairly mild night is in store across the ArkLaTex. Compromised between NBM and MET guidance, nudging tonight's lows up by 1 to 2 degrees for zones along and south of US- 82, placing most sites in the mid to upper 40s, with lower 40s north of the I-30 corridor. As cloud cover, rainfall and southwesterly flow continue tomorrow, highs will range from the middle 50s northwest to middle 60s southeast, falling very little overnight to values in the middle 40s north to upper 50s south by daybreak Monday
SP
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 152 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
Dawn will break on the new work week to find most of the region damp but free of new rainfall at first. This weekend's weakening trough looks to be absorbed into a deeper upper level trough far to the north over the western Great Lakes, but a weak shortwave will ripple across the resulting pseudo-zonal flow over the Four State Region on Monday, stirring up another round of slight rain chances, primarily for our Louisiana zones along and east of the I-49 corridor. These showers may linger into the evening and nighttime hours, coming to an end by Tuesday morning at the latest and beginning a dry stretch for much of the remainder of the week. Highs on Monday look to be the warmest seen in some time, ranging from the middle 60s north to middle 70s south.
Behind the features responsible for a soggy weekend and start to the new week, a new upper level trough will deepen over the Intermountain West Monday before plunging south across the Plains by Tuesday. The ArkLaTex currently looks set to receive the first cold frontal passage early Tuesday, resulting in highs ranging from the lower 50s northwest to middle 60s southeast. Behind the front, lows will drop back to below normal values in the upper 20s north to middle 30s south. Northwesterly flow aloft will sustain near seasonable highs in the 50s and 60s and chilly morning lows in the 20s and 30s, with Thursday morning looking to be the coldest, before a developing ridge and returning southerly surface flow boost temperatures and return slight rainfall chances to close out this extended forecast period.
SP
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
Conditions to detiorate through the afternoon into tonight as an upper-level disturbance moves across the region. Expect ceilings to become MVFR this evening and further diminish to IFR/LIFR by daybreak. -RA conditions expected to prevail through the overnight hours into Sunday across area terminals. Otherwise, light winds tonight to become southeast at 5 to 8 knots on Sunday. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 352 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /16/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 47 62 54 74 / 60 90 50 10 MLU 46 65 58 73 / 50 90 90 20 DEQ 41 54 45 64 / 50 90 20 0 TXK 46 59 50 68 / 70 90 30 0 ELD 42 61 51 71 / 60 100 70 10 TYR 47 59 53 71 / 70 80 10 0 GGG 45 60 52 73 / 70 90 20 0 LFK 46 64 55 77 / 50 80 30 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 155 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 152 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
This evening will see renewed rounds of rainfall tracking into the ArkLaTex out of central and southeast Texas, driven by westerly and southwesterly flow aloft, on the western periphery of an upper level ridge whose axis is pushing east over the lower Mississippi Valley.
Meanwhile, a deep upper level trough and associated closed low over eastern New Mexico and west Texas will eject northeastward from the eastern Rockies over the Great Plains tonight and through the day Sunday. The low looks to weaken while the trough loses its definition, and while these features will be deteriorating, they will serve to maintain our southwesterly flow regime aloft, resulting in areawide rainfall chances continuing overnight and through the day tomorrow, before starting to come to an end from northwest to southeast for our Oklahoma and Texas zones tomorrow night. Additional rainfall totals look to range from a few tenths of an inch to between one and one and a half inches.
Based on persistent cloud cover for much of the region and resulting insulation effects, a fairly mild night is in store across the ArkLaTex. Compromised between NBM and MET guidance, nudging tonight's lows up by 1 to 2 degrees for zones along and south of US- 82, placing most sites in the mid to upper 40s, with lower 40s north of the I-30 corridor. As cloud cover, rainfall and southwesterly flow continue tomorrow, highs will range from the middle 50s northwest to middle 60s southeast, falling very little overnight to values in the middle 40s north to upper 50s south by daybreak Monday
SP
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 152 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
Dawn will break on the new work week to find most of the region damp but free of new rainfall at first. This weekend's weakening trough looks to be absorbed into a deeper upper level trough far to the north over the western Great Lakes, but a weak shortwave will ripple across the resulting pseudo-zonal flow over the Four State Region on Monday, stirring up another round of slight rain chances, primarily for our Louisiana zones along and east of the I-49 corridor. These showers may linger into the evening and nighttime hours, coming to an end by Tuesday morning at the latest and beginning a dry stretch for much of the remainder of the week. Highs on Monday look to be the warmest seen in some time, ranging from the middle 60s north to middle 70s south.
Behind the features responsible for a soggy weekend and start to the new week, a new upper level trough will deepen over the Intermountain West Monday before plunging south across the Plains by Tuesday. The ArkLaTex currently looks set to receive the first cold frontal passage early Tuesday, resulting in highs ranging from the lower 50s northwest to middle 60s southeast. Behind the front, lows will drop back to below normal values in the upper 20s north to middle 30s south. Northwesterly flow aloft will sustain near seasonable highs in the 50s and 60s and chilly morning lows in the 20s and 30s, with Thursday morning looking to be the coldest, before a developing ridge and returning southerly surface flow boost temperatures and return slight rainfall chances to close out this extended forecast period.
SP
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
Conditions to detiorate through the afternoon into tonight as an upper-level disturbance moves across the region. Expect ceilings to become MVFR this evening and further diminish to IFR/LIFR by daybreak. -RA conditions expected to prevail through the overnight hours into Sunday across area terminals. Otherwise, light winds tonight to become southeast at 5 to 8 knots on Sunday. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 352 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /16/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 47 62 54 74 / 60 90 50 10 MLU 46 65 58 73 / 50 90 90 20 DEQ 41 54 45 64 / 50 90 20 0 TXK 46 59 50 68 / 70 90 30 0 ELD 42 61 51 71 / 60 100 70 10 TYR 47 59 53 71 / 70 80 10 0 GGG 45 60 52 73 / 70 90 20 0 LFK 46 64 55 77 / 50 80 30 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KOCH NACOGDOCHES A L MANGHAM JR RGNL,TX | 4 sm | 58 min | E 03 | Overcast | 30.26 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KOCH
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KOCH
Wind History Graph: OCH
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of southern planes -- texas
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Shreveport, LA,
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