Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nacogdoches, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

High pressure over Missouri now extends over nearly all of the upper and lower MS River Valley. A deep cyclone is working over the Great Lakes with the associated cold front raining on the entire eastern seaboard this morning, from Maine to Florida. The cold front slipped by us on Friday with little fanfare, but cloud layers across TX did increase around sunset for NW LA. The upper low is over S AZ, and is being stretched in the W/SW wind aloft in a super broad upper trough from Mexico to Florida.

Little will change in this pattern over the weekend as the surface high continues to sink into the midSouth. The upper low, being cut off from flow aloft, will be slow to go with upper ridging developing now over the high plains and parts of Canada.
So this means waves of cloudiness will spread eastward, with most coverage W of I-49 and rain staying out of reach in south Texas.
The northerly winds will continue drop our dew points, so look for a nice long cooling trend for mornings. And our highs today and Sunday, and maybe some on Monday too, will be near or just below the average for early November. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s line up for this second week of November, with lows a little more varied in a wider range from lower 40s in DeQueen to upper 40s for Lufkin. And we will be close or a tad cooler in some cases, due to the mixture of sun and clouds.

The medium to long range models remain close on the diminishing strength and positioning of the slow coming upper low, which is 570dam now over AZ and progged to be 578dam over N TX near Lake Texoma by early Tuesday morning. Ordinarily, that could mean a good chances for rain at some point(s), and it is, just not here as the deeper moisture sinks southward along with Friday's front, down toward the coast. The lack of deep moisture means mostly mid and high clouds, without rain for us. Maybe some occasional virga with some weak radar returns will be about it for days.

As mentioned in the final key message, a strong cold front with a 1031mb surface high, will dive southward during mid to late week.
This feature will be the pattern changer, aka kicker, to finally drive out the weak upper low. Meanwhile, the needed Pacific moisture remains out of reach on the displaced southern jet stream, just too far south latitude to help out. Actually, the GFS was looking wet area wide briefly for us, but now is far more spotty rain- wise, as this next air mass drops out of Canada. /24/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

For the 07/06z TAF update...The only changes to the forecast was to prevail OVC around 5-6k feet for KTYR, KLFK, and KGGG. OVC skies will continue for these terminals throughout this TAF period. Despite the lower CIGs , VFR conditions will continue to prevail for all terminals throughout this period as well. Winds will remain light and generally under 10 kts throughout, becoming light and variable towards the end of the period. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through this weekend. /24/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 53 70 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 47 69 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 43 69 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 47 68 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 42 69 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 55 70 50 71 / 0 0 10 0 GGG 51 71 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 57 75 49 73 / 0 10 10 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.