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FXUS65 KPSR 102343 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 443 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2023

UPDATE
00Z Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS
A pattern change will result in a subtle warming trend heading into the beginning of this week. During the middle of the week, a low pressure system will pivot through AZ resulting in a temporary cool down, and bringing a slight chance or showers to the higher terrain of S Gila County. After this system passes through, a warming trend will resume late in the week and through next weekend as widespread dry conditions persist.

DISCUSSION
Taking a glance at mid-lvl wv imagery and streamline analysis reveals broad troughing over the western CONUS with a 588 dam high centered well off the coast of Baja Del Norte. A plume of Pacific moisture is advancing into the Intermountain West with drier air and cloudless skies situated over southcentral AZ. After a brisk morning with temperatures in the mid 30s and a several spots below freezing in the AZ high terrain, temperatures are now warming into the mid 60s to near 70 degrees. Breezy northeasterly flow will continue through this afternoon across the Phoenix metro due to a modest MSLP gradient between the lower elevations and higher terrain. Otherwise, winds will diminish after sunset with another cool night in store as lows settle into the upper 30s to mid 40s across the lower deserts.

Heading into Monday, 500 mb flow will transition from northwesterly to quasi-zonal as the next in a series of upper lvl trofs begins to deepen over the Pacific NW. A transition to zonal flow aloft will result in increasing upper lvl moisture and considerable cloudiness across AZ. These clouds will keep high temperatures cooler tomorrow afternoon with forecast highs ranging from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees across the lower deserts. The presence of clouds will also promote warmer overnight lows both tonight and tomorrow night. As the 500 mb trough continues to dig over the Intermountain West on Tuesday, flow aloft will transition from zonal to more southwesterly over the forecast region. The presences of this trough will bring negative hght anomalies into the Desert Southwest, but high temps Tuesday afternoon are still projected to be around 3-5 degrees above seasonal norms as clouds begin to clear east of the region.

Most deterministic and ensemble model suites continue to depict the 500 mb trof over the Intermountain West deepening further and becoming a cutoff low over N AZ early Wednesday. Although there still remains some uncertainty regarding the depth and exact position of this cutoff feature. Either way, negative hght anomalies will be at a local minimum on Wednesday afternoon, resulting in the coolest temperatures of the upcoming week.
Desert highs will likely remain in the 60s on Wednesday with mid 50s across the higher terrain of S Gila County. Given the position of the cutoff low centered directly overhead, there will be breezy northerly flow across southeast CA and the Colorado river valley Wednesday afternoon. Coincidentally, enough lift along with adequate moisture will bring a slight chance of light shower activity to the higher terrain of Gila county late Wednesday into early Thursday.

The cutoff low pressure system will quickly eject east of the region with a high amplitude ridge taking its place on Thursday.
In response, high temperatures will rebound to slightly above normal Thursday afternoon. The warming trend will continue into Friday and next weekend as strong ridging looks to intensify over the Western CONUS. It is possible that 500 mb heights reach 1-2 sd above normal next weekend with temperatures increasing around 5F-10F above normal.

AVIATION
Updated at 2340Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns are expected through the forecast period. Winds will generally favor light and diurnal tendencies through tomorrow afternoon. Periods of variability are likely during directional shifts, especially at KPHX this evening, though brief SW winds AOB 5 kts may develop at times before E winds settle in tonight. FEW to SCT high clouds will continue to build into the region early this evening, becoming occasionally BKN tomorrow afternoon as mid level cloud cover increases.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather concerns are expected through the forecast period. Winds will follow familiar diurnal tendencies AOB 8 kts as NW to W winds prevail. SCT high clouds will continue to build into the region early this evening, becoming occasionally BKN early tomorrow afternoon as mid level cloud cover increases.

FIRE WEATHER
Temperatures will warm a few degrees through the first half of the week as high pressure generally settles over the region. Another round of gusty northeast winds will impact ridge tops and terrain gaps of eastern districts through this afternoon resulting in a locally elevated fire danger. Wind speeds across the entire region should decrease quickly thereafter. Minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall primarily in a 10-15% range the next couple days following poor to fair overnight recovery of 15-35%. A weak weather system descending into the area during the middle of the week will bring a modest increase in moisture with afternoon humidity levels improving closer to a 15-25% range. A few showers may affect far eastern Gila County with this system, however wetting rainfall should not be expected while the remainder of the area stays dry.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.

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