San Luis, AZ Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for San Luis, AZ

June 23, 2024 4:23 PM PDT (23:23 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 7:47 PM
Moonrise 9:50 PM   Moonset 6:57 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near San Luis, AZ
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Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 232031 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 131 PM MST Sun Jun 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
Elevated moisture will continue to result in daily thunderstorm chances through at least the middle of this week, with the highest chances confined over the higher terrain areas.
Temperatures today will be near to slightly above normal but then warm up somewhat heading through the middle of the week as high pressure strengthens over the Desert Southwest.

DISCUSSION
An expansive subtropical ridge centered over Texas is continuing to provide a southerly wind flow across the region, providing moisture advection into the region with well-above normal in PWATs in place.
Latest SPC Mesoanalysis depicts PWAT values ranging between 1.7-2.0" across most of central and southern AZ and between 1.5-1.9" across southeast CA. These PWAT values are currently near 250% of normal for this time of the year. The highly anomalous moisture content, similar to yesterday, has resulted a stream of mid to high-level clouds to encompass most of south-central AZ from Phoenix and points eastward through southern Gila County with radar showing a few light showers/virga in association. Once again the cloud cover is adding a layer of complexity when it comes to convective potential later this afternoon/evening as it will likely limit the overall instability across south-central AZ. This is reflected in the latest hi-res model guidance, which shows very limited activity across south-central AZ the rest of today with most of the activity confined across the High Country and southeast AZ where better insolation and orographic lifting will aid in storm development. There is a slight chance, however, that portions of southwest AZ in the vicinity of the Kofa Mountains as well as the higher terrain areas in northeast La Paz County as well as Joshua Tree National Park in southeast CA could see storms pop up this afternoon as these areas are seeing better insolation and thus higher instability. Even though south-central AZ may not see much in the way of storms, any outflows from distant storms could still impact the area with a 10-30% chance of winds exceeding 35+ mph. Given the high moisture content as well as the very weak steering motion in place, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will be the biggest threat with gusty winds being a secondary threat given the more limited DCAPE.

The subtropical ridge will continue to migrate westward and be centered near the AZ/NM border heading into the first half of the week while also strengthening slightly in the process as 500 mb height fields increase from 592-593dm currently to 594-596dm by mid-week, increasing the subsidence aloft. Still, with abundant moisture remaining in place with PWATs projected to remain at 1.5+", daily thunderstorm activity is still expected, mainly across the higher terrain areas. There continues to be excellent agreement amongst the ensembles of a large-scale trough moving through the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West Region by the latter half of the week. This troughing feature will weaken the subtropical ridge over the Desert Southwest but at the same time will cause the mean flow to become westerly, which is likely to advect drier air into the region. Thus, heading through the end of the week and at least into the start of next weekend, the overall thunderstorm activity is likely to trend downward across the majority of the region. This drying trend, however, looks to be short-lived as once the troughing feature lifts away into Canada by late next weekend, the subtropical ridge is likely to re- strengthen to our east with a more southerly flow returning. This would increase the monsoonal moisture once again heading into the first week of July, increasing thunderstorm activity.

With the abundant cloud cover and high moisture content in place, temperatures today across the lower deserts will continue to average near normal with highs in the mid to upper 100s. As the upper-level ridge builds over the area through midweek, temperatures are expected to heat up some with highs likely topping out between 109-112 degrees across the lower deserts. Even though these temperatures will keep the overall HeatRisk in the moderate category, it will still be sufficiently hot and humid that the necessary heat precautions should still be taken if engaging in outdoor activities. Temperatures are likely to cool off slightly as the ridge weakens towards the end of the week.

AVIATION
Updated at 1750Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Variable winds will eventually become established out of the W this afternoon. However, confidence regarding when W'rly winds will take hold remains low at this time, with current guidance indicating it may occur as late as 01Z. Shower and thunderstorms will once again develop across the Arizona high terrain this afternoon, but are not expected to impact metro terminals. Gusty outflows from distant convective activity will be possible (10-30%), but chances are too low to warrant inclusion in the TAF at this time. SCT to sometimes BKN mid-level cloud cover will persist through the period, with the lowest bases around 10-12k ft.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major aviation concerns are anticipated during the TAF period.
Winds at IPL will follow diurnal trends, with occasional gusts in the mid-teens to near 20 kts this evening. At BLH, winds will generally be out of the S through tomorrow morning. Hi-res guidance indicates a low potential (10-30%) of seeing gusty outflow winds from distant thunderstorms at BLH, but chances are too limited to include mention of enhanced winds in the TAF at this time. Mid-level cloud cover will be on the increase through the afternoon, with the lowest bases around 12k ft.

FIRE WEATHER
Monsoonal moisture will continue to result in daily chances for shower and thunderstorm activity, with the best chances for activity across the higher terrain areas. With the elevated moisture in place, MinRH values through early this week will range between 35-45% across the far eastern districts to between 15-25% across the western districts before slowly drying into the middle to latter half of next week. Winds will follow their typical daily tendencies, with gusty outflows from any thunderstorm activity anticipated over the next several days.
Temperatures through today will average near to slightly above normal before increasing some heading into the middle of next week. Chances for wetting rains will generally remain around 15-25% for the higher terrain areas and 5-10% for the lower deserts of south-central Arizona through the first half of the week.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KNYL70 sm26 minvar 0510 smClear108°F64°F25%29.71
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Tide / Current for El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico
   
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El Golfo de Santa Clara
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Sun -- 02:40 AM MST     1.67 meters High Tide
Sun -- 05:34 AM MST     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:56 AM MST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:52 AM MST     -3.02 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 03:35 PM MST     3.00 meters High Tide
Sun -- 07:46 PM MST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:48 PM MST     -1.61 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 09:50 PM MST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet
12
am
0.1
1
am
1
2
am
1.5
3
am
1.6
4
am
1.2
5
am
0.3
6
am
-0.9
7
am
-2
8
am
-2.8
9
am
-3
10
am
-2.6
11
am
-1.7
12
pm
-0.3
1
pm
1.1
2
pm
2.2
3
pm
2.9
4
pm
2.9
5
pm
2.4
6
pm
1.4
7
pm
0.3
8
pm
-0.8
9
pm
-1.4
10
pm
-1.6
11
pm
-1.2


Tide / Current for San Felipe, Baja California Norte, Mexico
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San Felipe
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Sun -- 03:37 AM PDT     3.96 meters High Tide
Sun -- 05:36 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:59 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:52 AM PDT     -0.98 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 04:31 PM PDT     5.07 meters High Tide
Sun -- 07:46 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:49 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:42 PM PDT     0.37 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

San Felipe, Baja California Norte, Mexico, Tide feet
12
am
1.4
1
am
2.3
2
am
3.3
3
am
3.8
4
am
3.9
5
am
3.4
6
am
2.4
7
am
1.2
8
am
0.1
9
am
-0.7
10
am
-1
11
am
-0.6
12
pm
0.4
1
pm
1.8
2
pm
3.2
3
pm
4.3
4
pm
5
5
pm
5
6
pm
4.4
7
pm
3.4
8
pm
2.2
9
pm
1.2
10
pm
0.5
11
pm
0.4


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