Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 7:11 PM Moonrise 3:38 PM   Moonset 4:04 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS65 KPSR 190905 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 205 AM MST Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will prevail through early next week. The warmest days are expected to be Sunday and Monday, with some lower desert locations topping out in the upper nineties. Otherwise, high temperatures in the low to mid nineties will be common across the lower deserts through next Tuesday before a gradual cooling trend takes hold during the latter half of next week. A weak disturbance will pass over the Desert Southwest today and another one likely during the middle of next week, bringing widespread breezy conditions.

DISCUSSION
The weather pattern across the CONUS continues to support large scale upper level ridging which has somewhat flattened out over the southern states to a progressive wave pattern across the northern states and southern Canada. Our region will continue to fall under a quasi-zonal westerly flow pattern through early next week, but with a series of very weak and dry shortwave troughs and ridges passing through or near the region. The warm air mass that is already in place will stay put despite the passage of any weak disturbances mainly due to the continuance of the split upper level jet flow regime.

The above normal temperatures with the potential for highs reaching into the upper 90s on Sunday and Monday is the main forecast concern through next week. The abundant high clouds from yesterday have now vacated the region to the east leaving generally clear skies forecast through the coming weekend.
Temperatures will remain fairly stable today and Saturday with highs mainly in the lower 90s to around 95 degrees as a weak trough moving through later today will stall out the warming trend. By Saturday night into Sunday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move into the region boosting H5 heights back to around 578-580dm, while providing a bit more warming. As a result, we should see our highs peak on Sunday and Monday reaching into the mid to upper 90s, or 10-12 degrees above seasonal normals.
Guidance still shows up to around 20% probability for a small portion of the lower deserts to reach 100 degrees on Sunday and/or Monday.

Model ensemble guidance is now trending toward a Pacific trough developing well west of California early next week before slowly transitioning through our region during the latter half of next week. There is still a decent amount of uncertainty with this next weather system, but it should at least lead to a a gradual cool down next week. The latest NBM suggests highs will lower closer to 90 degrees by Wednesday and potentially even into the low to mid 80s at some point late next week as the trough may stall out over the Southwestern U.S. Any potential for rain still looks very low at less than 10% as the system looks seasonably dry and not all that organized. As with any typical spring weather system for our region, we should expect to see an increase in winds and this could be over a several day period.

AVIATION
Updated at 2341Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Nocturnal downvalley/drainage patterns have begun over the Greater Phoenix area with KPHX expected to have easterly directions in place by 10Z. Daytime winds Friday will follow a similar pattern as Thursday with a period of southerly winds in the midday/early afternoon time frame followed by a mid to late afternoon onset of southwesterly/westerly. As for sky cover, cirrus will thin out by 09Z or so with with clear skies the rest of the TAF period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

At KIPL, light westerly winds are expected to prevail the rest of the night and much of the day before minor westerly gustiness (20-25kts) develops between 00Z-02Z Saturday. At KBLH, light and variable winds will be in place before minor southerly breeziness (gusts 15-20kts) develop Friday afternoon. As for sky cover, expect clear skies the rest of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will persist through the coming weekend as lower desert highs top out each day mostly in the low to mid 90s. Winds today will pick up during the afternoon with gusts to around 20 mph in most locations. Winds Saturday will continue to follow diurnal daily trends with any afternoon breeziness in the mid teens. Min RHs will continue to fall into the 5-15% range each day, while overnight Max RHs mostly stay in a 25-45% range for most places. A cooling trend is forecast by the middle of next week eventually bringing temperatures back down to around normal or just below normal late next week. Breezy to locally windy conditions are also expected for much of next week with daily afternoon gusts commonly reaching to between 20-30 mph. Humidities are likely to stay quite low next week with daily MinRHs of 10-15% through the middle of the week before some improvement is forecast to around 20-25% late week as temperatures cool down.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.

El Golfo de Santa Clara
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:34 AM MST     2.42 meters High Tide
Fri -- 04:04 AM MST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:04 AM MST     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:47 AM MST     -2.20 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 12:45 PM MST     2.00 meters High Tide
Fri -- 03:37 PM MST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:43 PM MST     -2.30 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 07:10 PM MST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet

San Felipe
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:19 AM PDT     4.14 meters High Tide
Fri -- 04:04 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:32 AM PDT     0.29 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 01:29 PM PDT     3.82 meters High Tide
Fri -- 03:38 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:10 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:29 PM PDT     0.07 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

San Felipe, Baja California Norte, Mexico, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Yuma, AZ,