Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Midway, GA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
For the early evening update: Latest radar trends support showing isolated to scattered showers a little further inland than the previous forecast. Also we adjusted sky coverage to greater amounts, and temperatures were cooled more early on, but the downward trend was slowed during the late evening based on more cloud cover.

Late Afternoon into Tonight: Aloft, weak ridging will nudge further away from the from region across the western Atlantic while subtle troughing prevails near the Southeast Coast. At the sfc, a weak cold front should reach the coast, while a coastal trough lingers over nearby Georgia waters and Florida, but slowly is forced south of the local area with time.

Latest trends favor most precip activity across coastal Georgia during the next few hours, mainly south of I-16 where low-lvl convergence is greatest, PWATs are near 2.0 inches and SBCAPE between 1000-1500 J/kg reside. Shower coverage should gradually diminish and/or become more focused offshore and to the south of the Altamaha River approaching sunset. By late evening, most areas are expected to be precip free as drier high pressure filters into the region from the west and north. A light northeast wind should prevail through the night under thick high clouds. Lows should range in the mid-upper 60s inland to lower 70s closer to the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
Sunday: The forecast area is forecast to remain between a cold front across northern FL and another stronger cold front across the Ohio River Valley. Surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast will remain ridged across the forecast area. Gusty NE winds should keep dry stable air across most of the CWA However, HRRR keeps the northern edge of deep moisture just over extreme SE GA and the adjacent waters. The forecast will feature SCHC to CHC PoPs for showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southern most counties.
High temperatures are forecast to generally range in the low 80s.

Monday and Tuesday: Tropical cyclone Milton is forecast to develop into a hurricane as it tracks east across the Gulf of Mexico. The large circulation around the storm may result in the approaching cold front to stall over or near the forecast area early next week.
The forecast will generally feature dry weather for Monday and Tuesday. Low temperatures in the 60s and high temperatures in the mid 80s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Tuesday night, moisture will begin to lift north across portions of SE GA. SCHC for showers across SE GA, dry to the north.

Wednesday through Thursday, the forecast will be dominated by the placement, timing, and strength of Hurricane Milton. Per latest NHC track, the center of Milton is forecast to track across central FL Wednesday/Wednesday night, pushing across the western Atlantic on Thursday. During the storm's closest passage to the CWA, PoPs will spread from south to north across most of the forecast area for moderate showers. However, the the storm tracks on the north edge of the forecast cone, similar to the GFS then PoPs will need to be significantly increased across the CWA Conditions appear cloudy with rounds of showers and gusty NE winds, especially near the coast. Daytime temperatures should be limited to the mid to upper 70s.

By Friday, conditions should rapidly improve with the arrival of large high pressure. Conditions will remain dry and sunny.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Isolated showers will be near KSAV early this evening, otherwise VFR conditions there and at KCHS and KJZI through 00Z Monday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR through early next week. Rainfall associated with Tropical Cyclone Milton may develop restrictions Wednesday through Thursday. Periods of gusty NE winds will be possible during the mid-week.

MARINE
Tonight: A weak cold front will shift across local waters, favoring an enhanced pressure gradient between high pressure nudging into the area from the north/northwest and coastal troughing slowly nudging south across Georgia waters and near the Florida coast. In general, northeast winds will gust up to 15-20 kt across most waters outside the Charleston Harbor, although convection could temporarily produce gusts around 25 kt at times across Georgia waters this evening. Later tonight, guidance suggests some weakening to the pressure gradient as high pressure nudges further south near the local area. However, winds should still average around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt outside the Charleston Harbor for much of the night. Seas will range between 3-4 ft across nearshore waters and 4-5 ft across offshore Georgia waters, but will show signs over building overnight. There looks to be little risk for t-storms with limited CAPE and instability. But should any occur, the Georgia waters are most likely.

Sunday: The marine zones are forecast to remain between a cold front across northern FL and another stronger cold front across the Ohio River Valley. Surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast will remain ridged across the forecast area. Gusty NE winds between 15 to 20 kts across the coastal waters. Seas will gradually increase, ranging from 3 to 5 ft within 20 NM, and 5 to 6 ft across the outer GA waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been posted for the outer GA waters.

Monday and Tuesday: Tropical cyclone Milton is forecast to develop into a hurricane as it tracks east across the Gulf of Mexico. The large circulation around the storm may result in the approaching cold front to stall over or near the forecast area early next week.
Winds will strengthen through the period. By Tuesday, all marine zones should develop at least Small Craft Advisory criteria wind gusts. Seas will increase to 5 to 7 ft by Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday: Tropical storm conditions possible. The forecast will be dominated by the placement, timing, and strength of Hurricane Milton. Per latest NHC track, the center of Milton is forecast to track across central FL Wednesday/Wednesday night, pushing across the western Atlantic on Thursday. During the storm's closest passage to the coast, wind gusts around 50 kts are possible across the outer GA waters Wednesday night. Seas across the outer GA water could range between 15 to 20 ft Wed night. Mariner's should monitor updated weather forecast closely.

Rip Current: The combination of northeast winds and swells of 2 ft every 10 seconds will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents at all beaches through Sunday. An enhanced risk for rip currents will persist into early next week as long period swell energy generated from distant Hurricane Kirk impacts the beaches.
Beginning on Wednesday, wave energy associated with Hurricane Milton will begin to increase and remain into late into the week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Northeast winds could maintain tidal departures around 1 ft near the timing of high tide late Sunday morning. Given an astronomical tide near 5.9 ft MLLW in the Charleston Harbor for the Sunday morning high tide cycle, water levels along the Charleston/Colleton coast could reach 7 ft MLLW and lead to minor coastal flooding. A Coastal Flood Advisory could eventually be needed.

Coastal flooding is also possible during high tides from Tuesday through Thursday morning along the entire coast. Coastal flooding appears most likely as Tropical Cyclone Milton tracks across FL to the western Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 3 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ374.