Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Midway, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:57PM Monday October 14, 2019 6:18 AM EDT (10:18 UTC) Moonrise 6:44PMMoonset 6:59AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 352 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming becoming se late. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers this morning, then a slight chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Showers likely with a in the morning, then showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. Showers.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 352 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A stationary front will remain near the area until a strong cold front moves through on Wednesday. High pressure returns for the second half of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Midway, GA
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location: 31.73, -81.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 140837
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
437 am edt Mon oct 14 2019

Beneficial rains to fall over the next few days...

Synopsis
A stationary front will remain near the area until a strong cold
front moves through on Wednesday. High pressure returns for the
second half of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Through sunrise: the next several hours will be fairly wet for
portions of the area as a corridor of increased forcing
associated with the left exit region of a 110 kt jet streak
embedded within the subtropical jet traverses the area. The best
chances for measurable rainfall will remain generally confined
to areas along and north of the i-16 corridor, including the
savannah and charleston metro areas. Although QPF will not be
particularly high, any rainfall will go towards some relief to
the ongoing drought situation. Rap time-sections show the omega
field is rather sharp and deep suggesting the degree of forcing
will be sufficient enough to support a least a few tstms
despite the lack of any meaningful instability. This appears to
be verifying as goes-e glm and the national ldn data are both
pinging on some pockets of both cloud-to-cloud and cloud-to-
cloud air lightning. The risk for measurable rainfall should
end by daybreak, but may linger just a tad longer across the
upper portions of the charleston county coast near CAPE romain
and mcclellanville given the orientation of the coast.

Today: upper forcing with a pronounced jet streak will quickly
diminish after sunrise as the subtropical jet axis shifts north
in response to a slight strengthening of the subtropical high
centered over the gulf of mexico and another storm system
beginning to dig into the pacific southwest. Model time-sections
show broad subsidence increasing through the day with the
vertical depth of the deepest moisture decreasing with time.

This will bring a quick end to any shower TSTM activity after
daybreak even as the stationary front continues to lurk just to
the west across the southern midlands, csra into east-central
georgia. Cloudy skies early will give way to increasing amounts
of Sun through the day, although a fair amount of cloud cover
will likely persist. There are some signals that a weak sea
breeze could develop along the coast this afternoon within a
region of slightly deeper moisture. This convergence will be
quite weak and ill-defined given the nearly non-existent wind
fields that are expected, but a number of the various href
members show isolated convection developing during peak heating.

Confidence in this occurring is low, but with both the rap and
h3r showing at least some activity, it seems reasonable to
maintain a slight chance of showers tstms for the afternoon
hours across eastern and far southern counties.

With the area expected to remain mostly in the pre-frontal warm
sector, another warm day can be expected with highs ranging
from the lower 80s across the charleston tri-county area to the
mid-upper 80s elsewhere away from the beaches. There is a
chance temperatures could make a run for the record high of 88
degrees at the savannah airport (ksav). See the climate section
below for additional information.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
Tonight: dry conditions will prevail for much of the night. The
stationary front will finally move south into the area tonight
as broad high pressure centered over the ohio and tennessee
valleys builds both east and south. The front is expected to
settle into the i-16 corridor and up into far southern south
carolina by daybreak Tuesday. Guidance is similar in showing
pronounced multi-surface isentropic assent moisture advection
developing across the northeast gulf coast well after midnight,
then pushes north into portions of southeast georgia by sunrise.

This should promote the formation of a fairly wide band of
light to moderate rain with embedded tstms, the leading edge of
which will likely move north of the altamaha river in the 5-8 am
time frame. Generally favored a slightly faster evolution timing
of the development of rainfall as sunrise approaches as
previous experience has shown that the various synoptic models
tend to be a few hours too slow in bringing the leading edge of
measurable rainfall north out of the gulf of mexico. Pops will
range from 10% across the charleston tri-county area to 50%
along the altamaha river, then increasing rapidly into the
likely and categorical ranges thereafter. Lows will range from
the mid 50s over interior southeast south carolina to the upper
60s near 70 at the beaches and south of the i-16 corridor.

Tuesday: the mid-levels will consist of an amplifying trough over
the northern plains and great lakes region with time. It's southern
extent should reach into the southeast by daybreak Wednesday. This
slightly weakens and pushes the gulf of mexico high away. Though,
our area generally stays under semi-zonal flow with mainly west
winds. However, heights will lower. Additionally, several lobes of
vorticity will be moving overhead or nearby during this time period,
which will enhance the surface features. At the surface, a
stationary front should generally be located along our western cwa
border in the morning. This front is forecasted to transition into a
warm front and lift northwards in the afternoon, continuing into the
overnight hours. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will rapidly
approaches us from the west. The cold front is not expected to reach
our area during this time period, but there remain signs of surface
troughing forming ahead of it. Abundant moisture spreads across our
area in advance of the front. Pwats look to exceed 2" in the evening
and overnight, which is 2-3 standard deviations above normal per
naefs. Models remain in great agreement showing widespread showers
developing and spreading from southwest to northeast during the
morning and afternoon. These showers will continue through the
evening and overnight across our entire area. Given the model
agreement and the QPF values ranging from 1-1.5" we went
categorical. Even wpc has our area under under a slight risk for
flash flooding. Though, we're not expecting any issues because the
highest rainfall amounts will be falling in the most drought-
stricken areas. Finally, there is almost no instability in place, so
we're not expecting any thunder. Daytime temperatures should be near
normal. Lows will be mild.

Wednesday: the mid-levels will consist of a trough axis stretching
from the great lakes region into the southeast in the morning. The
axis is forecasted to shift eastward, and offshore of our area by
late in the day. Northwest flow should develop overnight. The
surface cold front will be west of our area in the morning. It's
expected to quickly move through in the afternoon. High pressure
will build in behind it overnight. Continuing what's said above,
abundant moisture will be in place in the morning across our area
with pwats exceeding 2". However, these values quickly drop off by
the afternoon. Models respond by not having quite as much shower
coverage or intensity in the morning as they do the previous night.

The highest pops are in the morning, dropping in the afternoon.

Likewise, they are highest near the coast, where the showers will
persist the longest. But things should quickly dry out late in the
afternoon following the frontal passage. Expect gusty winds with the
frontal passage. A dry night with mostly clear skies is on tap.

Daytime temperatures may be slightly above normal, reaching these
values before the front moves through. On the flip side, lows should
be slightly below normal due to the cold air advection.

Thursday: a mid-level trough is expected to be along or just off the
east coast while ridging builds over the central u.S. Broad surface
high pressure initially centered over arkansas in the morning will
move over the tn valley in the afternoon, with it's southwest
periphery stretching into our area. Plenty of subsidence from this
high will bring our area dry conditions with mostly sunny skies. The
most noticeable thing will be the cooler airmass, with daytime
temperature struggling to make it to 70 degrees in our sc counties,
and the mid 70s in our ga counties.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
Models are in good agreement showing broad high pressure centered
over the tn valley Thursday night, moving eastward and offshore by
Saturday. The high will bring our area dry conditions through most
of Friday. Over the weekend moisture increases from the south and
that will lead to an increasing risk of showers. High temperatures
will gradually warm up in the long term.

Aviation 07z Monday through Friday
Rain impacts look to be the highest at kchs through daybreak as
a line of showers moves east. Upstream observations show vsbys
occasionally dropping to MVFR and see no reason to deviate from
this. Will show prevailing -ra by 09z with tempo vsbys to MVFR.

The rain should mostly miss ksav, although a brief impact could
still occur, mainly 08-11z. Will carry a tempo group to cover
this possibility, but leave vsbysVFR. CIGS should largely
remainVFR, although a brief period of MVFR could occur in
pockets of heavier rainfall. Conditions should clear out later
this morning as the rain band pushes offshore. Rain chances will
increase again overnight, but will largely remain out of the 06z
taf window.

Extended aviation outlook: a stationary front will be near the
area Tuesday, then a strong cold front will move through on
Wednesday. Flight restrictions are expected both of these days.

Additionally, gusty winds are expected on Wednesday. High
pressure andVFR returns on Thursday and continues into Friday.

Marine
Through tonight: there are no immediate concerns. West to
southwest winds will give way to collapsing wind fields tonight
as a cold front drops into the local marine area. Winds will
begin to turn northeast along the charleston county coast just
before daybreak Tuesday. Winds will remain less than 10 kt with
seas 1-3 ft.

Tuesday through Friday: a stationary front will be near the
area Tuesday, bringing a relatively weak surface pressure
gradient. A strong cold front is forecasted to approach from the
west Tuesday night, causing the gradient to steepen. Winds will
quickly increase with gusts reaching 25-30 kt by daybreak
Wednesday. These conditions will continue Wednesday morning.

Wind-driven seas will peak around 5-7 ft Wednesday afternoon,
highest for the charleston waters and the ga waters beyond 20
nm. Small craft advisories are expected for the coastal waters
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Charleston harbor may need an
advisory for a short time period too because gusts could reach
25 kt. The front will move through Wednesday afternoon and winds
will ease behind it Wednesday evening. High pressure Thursday
and Friday will bring tranquil conditions.

Tides coastal flooding
Elevated tide remain in place this morning. Current data
suggest tide levels will reach around 7.2 ft mllw in charleston
harbor with this morning high tide. These levels typically
produce shallow coastal flooding along portions of the lower
south carolina coast. A coastal flood advisory will be issued
for charleston, coastal colleton, and beaufort counties 7-11 am.

Will have to watch levels again for evening high tide as levels
could once again make a run for shallow coastal flooding
thresholds in the charleston harbor. Levels are expected to
remain below critical levels at fort pulaski.

Elevated tides will continue into Tuesday, resulting in the
possibility of shallow coastal flooding around the times of high
tide, mainly for downtown charleston and nearby areas.

Additional coastal flood advisories are likely.

Climate
Record high minimums for 14 october:
kchs: 71 2014 and previous years
kcxm: 74 1997
ksav: 72 1883
record highs for 14 october:
kchs: 88 1990 and previous years
kcxm: 85 1975
ksav: 88 1995 and previous years

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... Coastal flood advisory from 7 am to 11 am edt this morning for
scz048>050.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 22 mi79 min WNW 2.9 72°F 1017 hPa (+0.0)67°F
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 27 mi49 min NNW 5.1 G 6 73°F 77°F1018 hPa
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 29 mi89 min WSW 12 G 16 78°F 79°F3 ft1016.3 hPa (-0.9)72°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA21 mi23 minSSE 410.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain70°F65°F88%1016.2 hPa
Wright Army Airfield (Fort Stewart)/Midcoast Regional Airport, GA22 mi23 minN 05.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist69°F66°F92%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSVN

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW5SW11SW8SW10SW9SE8SE7S6SE6SE5S8S7S5S5S4S6S5NW3W3CalmCalmS4
1 day agoCalmCalm--NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE7SE6S5CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmN5NE5NE4NE6N6NE4E11E8E8E9E6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for North Newport River (Daymark 119), Georgia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Florida Passage, Bear River, Georgia
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Florida Passage
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:50 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:45 AM EDT     8.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:12 PM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:07 PM EDT     8.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.94.12.30.90.51.33.15.27.18.38.67.96.54.831.50.81.12.54.46.27.58.17.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.