Tuesday, August11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Butterfield, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 7:53PM Tuesday August 11, 2020 6:08 PM MDT (00:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:36PMMoonset 12:36PM Illumination 44% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Butterfield, TX
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Area Discussion for -
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FXUS64 KEPZ 112312 AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 512 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020

AVIATION. 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions generally expected. Showers are trying to develop in the vicinity of KELP as an outflow moves east to west. A lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out with brief impacts possible at the airport within the next hour or so (by 01z). Otherwise, SCT mid clouds expected for the region with light and variable winds.

Brown

PREV DISCUSSION. 300 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 .

SYNOPSIS. High pressure aloft will be centered over the Borderland through the end of the week, which will suppress most thunderstorm development and result in afternoon temperatures near or at record levels. A few storms may succeed in developing over the higher mountains or in far southwestern New Mexico, but most locations will remain dry. The upper high will then migrate west and northwest over Arizona on the weekend and over Utah early next week, with temperatures not quite as hot and enough moisture for a few thunderstorms area wide.

DISCUSSION. SHORT TERM. Tonight and Wednesday . Any isolated shower, storm, or breezy outflow activity will die off after sunset, or shortly thereafter. Warm temperatures continue into the overnight, especially El Paso county and portions of the Rio Grande valley south of El Paso, where the Heat Advisory continues until early Friday. Elsewhere temps remain seasonably above average.

For Wednesday, extended range HRRR is quite bullish on activity, as usual, but does show the preferred areas of convection pretty well I feel. The Gila, Sacs, southern Otero, and the terrain of Hudspeth county. Might be a slight uptick in moisture levels tomorrow, by slight I mean ever so slightly in the mid levels, so this "threat" seems plausible. In any event, have POPs across the terrain regions of the CWA mainly, but can see a few POPs leaking into adjacent lowland locations, and maybe even the Bootheel. Nevertheless, the ridge overhead will suppress a lot of this activity, both in coverage and intensity, and of course, temperatures will rise into the low 100s to near 105 degrees most lowland locations (with 850 temps fcst a bit higher than Tuesday suggesting warmer temps than Tuesday).

35

LONG TERM. Record heat continues Thursday and Friday with the upper high centered directly overhead. Moisture tries to seep in from Sonora and southeast AZ at times, so a few storms are possible west of the divide, yet they will struggle under the high. But things might improve slightly over the weekend as the upper high migrates westward over AZ. This will take the edge off of record heat (though still hotter than normal) and allow an upper impulse or two to drop southward around the front side of the high. We've seen this already earlier in the summer, and though it is not a classic monsoon pattern we will take whatever storms this can generate.

It might even get better early next week as the models drift the upper high over southern UT. Meanwhile a decent upper trough drops down into the plains states . a set-up for weak backdoor fronts. That could bring temperatures down closer to normal (but still hot because it's August) and increase thunderstorm coverage a bit. We're not talking about a nice monsoonal outbreak of storms, but definitely better than the current scenario.

01

AVIATION. Light to mildly breezy winds (G15-20KT) through the afternoon hours at KDMN, KTCS, KLRU. Otherwise, FEW-SCT120-150 with mainly terrain storms and VFR conditions expected at terminals. Cannot rule out a breezy outflow as well.

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FIRE WEATHER. Upper ridge will remain in the vicinity of southern NM through the end of the week. Consequently, thunderstorm chances will be rather isolated with mainly terrain storms, and temperatures 8-15 degrees above average. Warm temperatures and slightly better storm chances expected through the weekend for all locations, but only an iso to sct mtn and iso lowland threat. Early to mid next week may provide even better storm chances as the upper level high jogs to the northwest of the area. All the while, outside of thunderstorms, winds remain light to mildly breezy each afternoon. Min RH 10-15% lowlands and 15-25% area mtns with ventilation a mix of Poor to Good through the early weekend.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. El Paso 77 105 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 70 99 69 100 / 10 10 0 0 Las Cruces 71 103 71 102 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 71 104 73 104 / 10 10 0 10 Cloudcroft 55 80 56 80 / 10 20 0 30 Truth or Consequences 72 101 71 102 / 0 10 10 10 Silver City 67 96 67 96 / 0 10 0 20 Deming 68 104 70 104 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 69 102 71 102 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 77 106 78 107 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 71 105 71 105 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 75 106 75 107 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 73 98 73 99 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 76 105 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 72 104 74 104 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 74 103 75 104 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 71 102 72 102 / 0 10 10 0 Hatch 70 103 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 73 104 74 105 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 73 104 74 104 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 61 90 61 91 / 0 20 0 30 Mescalero 59 90 60 91 / 10 20 0 30 Timberon 59 89 59 89 / 0 20 0 20 Winston 60 93 60 93 / 10 20 10 30 Hillsboro 68 101 68 101 / 0 10 0 20 Spaceport 69 102 70 102 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 60 94 60 94 / 10 20 0 30 Hurley 67 98 66 99 / 0 0 0 20 Cliff 63 101 64 102 / 10 10 0 20 Mule Creek 67 97 67 97 / 10 20 0 20 Faywood 68 99 68 99 / 0 10 0 20 Animas 68 103 69 104 / 0 0 0 10 Hachita 67 102 69 103 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 68 101 69 102 / 10 0 0 10 Cloverdale 65 96 68 97 / 10 10 0 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NM . None. TX . Heat Advisory until 8 AM MDT Friday for TXZ418-419-423-424.



35-Delizio/01/34


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
El Paso, El Paso International Airport, TX20 mi78 minSSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy101°F39°F12%1004.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KELP

Wind History from ELP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NW12N6SE16
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S10SW7SE8SW11SW6SE3CalmCalmNE4NE5NW86NE7W5S4N3
1 day agoE3CalmSE9SE8E5N3CalmCalmS9SE6S4N4W3CalmSE5SW5SW4SW6335SW63SW7
2 days agoS6SE4SE5SE5SE9W12NW15N11E6N10N10N6CalmCalmE3S3Calm33N353CalmSE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station El Paso, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.