Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Butterfield, TX
May 1, 2024 10:20 PM MDT (04:20 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 1:19 AM Moonset 11:48 AM |
Area Discussion for - El Paso, TX
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FXUS64 KEPZ 012344 AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 544 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 106 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024
A fairly persistent large scale weather pattern across the Southwestern U.S. will keep a fetch of very dry air over the Borderland for the rest of the week and through the weekend. Day to day temperatures will be quite steady, and average warmer than normal. Skies will typically be mostly clear, with plenty of sunshine. After a breezy day today, winds will slacken, with only occasional breezes in the afternoons through Friday, but then pick back up for the weekend and early next week. The primary concern, due to weather, over the next seven days will be compounding warmth and dryness, leading to drying of vegetation across the region, and fire weather conditions elevating to critical this weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 106 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024
A low-amplitude progressive wavy pattern will persist over the Western U.S. during this 7-day forecast period. This means generally a quasi-zonal pattern with passing minor ridges and troughs. With the pattern favoring flat, the troughs, with their associated moisture and dynamics will pass well to our north. For our forecast area, with will mean a continuation of the our stretch or precip-less weather. We have almost no precip, of any kind, in our forecast (with the exception of the east slopes of the SACs for Sunday). A deep dry environment will mean few clouds, plenty of sunshine, dry surface layers (low RH), warmer than normal temperatures, and deep mixing. Daily max/min temps should run pretty consistent from day to day, with only 2-4 degree changes through the period. Winds will slacken off after this evening as the currently upper trough passing to our north, crosses the Rockies, in the the Northern and Central Plains. We will see a 3 day stretch of generally light winds (for the season)
with light afternoon breezes.
Friday night through Saturday morning a front pushes in from the Plains over our NE and E zones. This does back in some Gulf moisture into the SACS, but it will be very shallow, and stay only briefly into the day on Saturday. We do have minor POPs and precip in for the eastern areas of the SACs and Guad escarpment of Otero Co., but the really don't believe we will see any realistic risk of showers or storms.
The next Pacific trough approaches Sunday, and that will be reflected with and upward trend in winds as we see stronger winds aloft mix down in tighter mid-level gradients, and good mix down, and some lee surface troughing through central NM into Chihuahua, MX. Sunday could bring winds requiring a Wind Advisory. Monday and Tuesday follow with very similar winds that will border on additional Wind Advisories. There will almost certainly be RFWs posted for these three days, given RH in the 5-10 percent range.
The associated trough swings through our area on Monday, but it looks to pass with insufficient moisture to produce any precip.
Beyond Tuesday, it appears we settle back into a flat zonal pattern through late week, with more seasonally dry and warm conditions.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024
VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. Gusty winds near 25kts continue this evening out of W-SW before subsiding overnight, except for KELP which stays breezy due to downslope flow. Lighter gusts to upper teens return tomorrow afternoon.
Other than FEW250, mainly SKC expected.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 106 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024
Fire weather season is in full swing, and the next 7 days ahead will ramp up those conditions from traditional, to elevated, to critical. We will continue with a deep and dry westerly flow pattern that ensures our region will remain warm and dry.
The large-scale pattern will be low in amplitude, with the storm track positioned well north. This means only small changes in weather elements day to day. Temperatures will be largely steady, with only small day to day changes. Each day should have mild nighttime temps, and warmer than normal temps. Our RH will be pathetically low, overnight recoveries will be poor and struggle to rise above 30-35%. Daily minRH will be largely below 10%, and as low as 5% for most afternoons. The warm and dry air will mean deep instability and good mixing aloft. Winds will be moderate to low for the season through Saturday, with generally light overnights and mornings, and marginally, occasionally breezy afternoons.
Sunday through Tuesday will be the time frame that we need to be focused on as a slow passing Pacific trough moves across the Western U.S. We will see increasing winds, while still being exceedingly dry. We are pretty certain these 3 days will be Red Flag Warning days.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 61 87 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 81 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 54 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 51 83 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 60 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 53 83 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 46 75 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 50 84 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 50 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 58 84 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 52 86 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 55 88 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 53 78 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 58 86 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 83 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 59 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 49 83 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 50 85 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 55 83 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 52 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 46 75 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 44 72 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 43 70 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 45 76 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 48 82 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 48 83 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 42 76 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 44 78 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 81 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 48 76 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 47 78 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 48 82 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 50 82 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 48 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 47 75 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 544 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 106 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024
A fairly persistent large scale weather pattern across the Southwestern U.S. will keep a fetch of very dry air over the Borderland for the rest of the week and through the weekend. Day to day temperatures will be quite steady, and average warmer than normal. Skies will typically be mostly clear, with plenty of sunshine. After a breezy day today, winds will slacken, with only occasional breezes in the afternoons through Friday, but then pick back up for the weekend and early next week. The primary concern, due to weather, over the next seven days will be compounding warmth and dryness, leading to drying of vegetation across the region, and fire weather conditions elevating to critical this weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 106 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024
A low-amplitude progressive wavy pattern will persist over the Western U.S. during this 7-day forecast period. This means generally a quasi-zonal pattern with passing minor ridges and troughs. With the pattern favoring flat, the troughs, with their associated moisture and dynamics will pass well to our north. For our forecast area, with will mean a continuation of the our stretch or precip-less weather. We have almost no precip, of any kind, in our forecast (with the exception of the east slopes of the SACs for Sunday). A deep dry environment will mean few clouds, plenty of sunshine, dry surface layers (low RH), warmer than normal temperatures, and deep mixing. Daily max/min temps should run pretty consistent from day to day, with only 2-4 degree changes through the period. Winds will slacken off after this evening as the currently upper trough passing to our north, crosses the Rockies, in the the Northern and Central Plains. We will see a 3 day stretch of generally light winds (for the season)
with light afternoon breezes.
Friday night through Saturday morning a front pushes in from the Plains over our NE and E zones. This does back in some Gulf moisture into the SACS, but it will be very shallow, and stay only briefly into the day on Saturday. We do have minor POPs and precip in for the eastern areas of the SACs and Guad escarpment of Otero Co., but the really don't believe we will see any realistic risk of showers or storms.
The next Pacific trough approaches Sunday, and that will be reflected with and upward trend in winds as we see stronger winds aloft mix down in tighter mid-level gradients, and good mix down, and some lee surface troughing through central NM into Chihuahua, MX. Sunday could bring winds requiring a Wind Advisory. Monday and Tuesday follow with very similar winds that will border on additional Wind Advisories. There will almost certainly be RFWs posted for these three days, given RH in the 5-10 percent range.
The associated trough swings through our area on Monday, but it looks to pass with insufficient moisture to produce any precip.
Beyond Tuesday, it appears we settle back into a flat zonal pattern through late week, with more seasonally dry and warm conditions.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024
VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. Gusty winds near 25kts continue this evening out of W-SW before subsiding overnight, except for KELP which stays breezy due to downslope flow. Lighter gusts to upper teens return tomorrow afternoon.
Other than FEW250, mainly SKC expected.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 106 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024
Fire weather season is in full swing, and the next 7 days ahead will ramp up those conditions from traditional, to elevated, to critical. We will continue with a deep and dry westerly flow pattern that ensures our region will remain warm and dry.
The large-scale pattern will be low in amplitude, with the storm track positioned well north. This means only small changes in weather elements day to day. Temperatures will be largely steady, with only small day to day changes. Each day should have mild nighttime temps, and warmer than normal temps. Our RH will be pathetically low, overnight recoveries will be poor and struggle to rise above 30-35%. Daily minRH will be largely below 10%, and as low as 5% for most afternoons. The warm and dry air will mean deep instability and good mixing aloft. Winds will be moderate to low for the season through Saturday, with generally light overnights and mornings, and marginally, occasionally breezy afternoons.
Sunday through Tuesday will be the time frame that we need to be focused on as a slow passing Pacific trough moves across the Western U.S. We will see increasing winds, while still being exceedingly dry. We are pretty certain these 3 days will be Red Flag Warning days.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 61 87 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 81 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 54 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 51 83 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 60 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 53 83 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 46 75 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 50 84 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 50 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 58 84 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 52 86 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 55 88 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 53 78 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 58 86 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 83 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 59 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 49 83 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 50 85 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 55 83 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 52 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 46 75 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 44 72 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 43 70 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 45 76 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 48 82 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 48 83 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 42 76 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 44 78 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 81 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 48 76 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 47 78 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 48 82 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 50 82 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 48 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 47 75 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBIF BIGGS AAF (FORT BLISS),TX | 20 sm | 25 min | WNW 13G21 | 7 sm | Clear | 81°F | 12°F | 7% | 29.82 | |
| KELP EL PASO INTL,TX | 20 sm | 29 min | W 12G25 | 10 sm | Clear | 82°F | 12°F | 7% | 29.77 |
El Paso, TX,
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