Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Butterfield, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1021 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Sub-tropical high well anchored over the Gulf of America, with ridging out west over southern New Mexico and northern Mexico.
Despite this high, sub-tropical moisture was able to move across the CWA this afternoon, and still lingered around east of the RG Valley during heating time, leading to scattered thunderstorms. A few of these were strong to severe and a consolidated outflow eventually spread out to the west. Outflow front is currently to Deming-Black Range line. Earlier HRRR runs handled this feature, though a few hours to slow with it. Dewpoints rose dramatically behind it, from the 30s to lower 50s. This will help fuel scattered thunderstorms again Saturday, though day-time mixing will lower dewpoints again west of the RG Valley. Thus best chances Saturday will continue east of the RG Valley.

Moisture will continue Sunday, with PWs .80 west to 1.30 east, and dewpoints in the 50s to as high as 60 deg in the east. Thus storm chances should be spread across all the CWA, though best chances remain in the east. Relatively high CAPE values and decent shear environment could lead to numerous strong and/or severe storms.
Dewpoints begin to drop a bit Monday but instability persists and Canadian low drags a short wave over New Mexico, adding dynamics to the northwest flow aloft. Could be another day for strong/severe storms.

Tuesday through Thursday...sub-tropical moisture begins diminishing Tuesday, though enough low level moisture lingers for a possible storm or two east. Wednesday will be the driest day and little or no chance of rain. Both GFS/ECMWF show trough/low over SoCal Thursday with increasing southerly flow and moisture, bringing back a chance of storms again. Temperatures will also soar again with the lower amount of clouds, with lowland highs ranging from about 102-107 through this period.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Generally VFR conditions with SCT100 SCT-BKN250. Surface winds east/southeast 12-17G27 knots...diminishing to variable AOB 7 knots after 09Z. Scattered thunderstorms developing over the mountains again after 18Z, with isolated storms over the lowlands after 21Z.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1012 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Moisture will produce some isolated thunderstorms in Otero and Hudspeth Counties this evening. Ventilation rates this weekend will range from Good out east to Excellent out west into tonight as winds will top out at around 10 mph. Cooler temperatures expected for this weekend and into Monday before turning hot and dry midweek.

Sunday looks to be the best day for thunderstorms, especially out east of the Rio Grande. Some may produce lightning and gusty outflow winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 74 103 77 97 / 0 0 10 50 Sierra Blanca 64 96 67 91 / 10 10 10 50 Las Cruces 68 100 71 96 / 0 0 10 40 Alamogordo 68 99 71 94 / 10 0 20 70 Cloudcroft 51 78 53 69 / 10 20 20 80 Truth or Consequences 71 99 72 92 / 0 10 10 40 Silver City 63 93 63 91 / 0 0 10 20 Deming 69 101 71 99 / 0 0 10 10 Lordsburg 68 98 69 97 / 0 0 10 0 West El Paso Metro 72 101 75 95 / 0 0 10 40 Dell City 65 99 68 90 / 30 10 20 40 Fort Hancock 70 103 73 99 / 10 10 10 60 Loma Linda 65 94 68 87 / 10 0 10 40 Fabens 69 103 72 98 / 0 0 10 40 Santa Teresa 68 101 72 95 / 0 0 10 40 White Sands HQ 75 101 77 94 / 0 0 10 70 Jornada Range 67 100 70 95 / 0 0 10 60 Hatch 68 103 71 99 / 0 10 10 30 Columbus 73 101 77 99 / 0 0 10 10 Orogrande 65 98 68 91 / 10 0 10 50 Mayhill 56 88 57 74 / 20 50 10 70 Mescalero 55 88 58 79 / 10 20 20 80 Timberon 52 84 55 76 / 20 10 10 60 Winston 61 90 60 84 / 0 30 10 60 Hillsboro 68 96 68 91 / 0 20 10 40 Spaceport 65 99 67 94 / 0 10 10 40 Lake Roberts 51 94 55 91 / 0 10 10 30 Hurley 64 96 65 94 / 0 0 10 20 Cliff 53 99 58 98 / 0 0 10 10 Mule Creek 49 94 54 93 / 0 10 10 10 Faywood 65 95 67 92 / 0 10 10 30 Animas 67 97 67 96 / 0 10 10 20 Hachita 67 98 68 97 / 0 0 10 10 Antelope Wells 67 97 67 96 / 0 20 10 30 Cloverdale 64 92 63 91 / 0 10 10 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.