NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS64 KEPZ 022332 AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 532 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Thunderstorms will be possible today, but quiet and warm weather is expected through Thursday. Cooler air arrives sometime Thursday while low rain chances return on Friday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

The Rest of Today: Busy day is unfolding though impacts have been low so far. Large UL trough/ low is slowly shifting east with its center over far NE NV. Jet streak is rounding the base of the main trough, which is beginning to impinge across NM. At the surface, a dryline is sharpening across the eastern portion of our CWA with a secondary tongue of moisture moving up along and west of the Divide. The eastern boundary has been slow to trigger convection across the CWA but probably because UL forcing-for-ascent hasn't arrive yet.
It does appear to have arrived for the western moisture tongue as scattered thunderstorms have developed, especially across the Gila. These storms will gradually shift east over the remainder of the afternoon and evening while the eastern boundary shifts into ABQ/ MAF's CWA. A few strong storms will be possible with damaging winds the main concern. Some flooding could also occur as northeasterly storm motion has already favored some minor training of storms. After dark, convection will begin to wane and/or exit.

Remainder of the Period: A Pacific front will push through tonight along with the preliminary UL trough. A portion of the UL trough will lag behind, which will keep the CWA at the base of the larger trough. Tuesday and Wednesday will be breezy each afternoon while highs remain above average though a degree or two cooler than what we've seen.
A secondary s/w will swing the base of the trough late Wednesday into Thursday, which will force a fairly strong Fall cold front southward. Models have slowed the progression of this front, and Thursday is looking warmer. Friday does show cooling with more pronounced cooling on Saturday courtesy of a secondary push of the Fall air mass. These two cold fronts will switch our winds to the east. This may open us up to the Gulf, but models are struggling on where to place moisture and the UL pattern. Will we have an UL ridge over us as we head into the weekend or will a weak, introverted trough move in from the south along with healthy moisture? The former keeps us dry while the latter gives us some healthy rainfall. The answer changes with every model run. Either way, NBM QPF probabilities are down since yesterday as are POPs.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

VCTS remains in TAF for another hour or two for all terminals except for KTCS. Storms should largely dissipate after sunset, although redevelopment is possible just east of KELP later in the evening. Gusty SW winds continue into the early evening to around 25kts, becoming modest overnight. Some gusts may return for tomorrow afternoon under mostly clear skies.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Minimal fire concerns for the period, but drier air will push in from the west, which will bring min RH values into the teens for Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will top out around 10 MPH. A cold front is expected to arrive Thursday, but timing is uncertain.
Vent rates will generally run very good for Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 66 88 63 87 / 20 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 58 81 59 81 / 40 0 10 10 Las Cruces 55 82 53 82 / 20 0 0 0 Alamogordo 57 80 54 81 / 20 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 58 41 59 / 30 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 52 80 51 78 / 20 0 0 0 Silver City 47 72 49 74 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 51 83 49 82 / 20 0 0 0 Lordsburg 49 80 49 80 / 10 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 85 61 85 / 20 0 0 0 Dell City 59 86 59 85 / 30 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 62 88 62 87 / 40 0 10 10 Loma Linda 58 78 59 78 / 20 0 0 10 Fabens 62 87 60 86 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 58 83 55 83 / 20 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 60 83 60 83 / 20 0 0 0 Jornada Range 55 81 52 81 / 20 0 0 0 Hatch 53 83 50 82 / 20 0 0 0 Columbus 56 85 54 83 / 20 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 80 55 81 / 30 0 0 0 Mayhill 47 70 46 72 / 20 0 0 10 Mescalero 46 68 44 70 / 30 0 0 10 Timberon 44 67 44 68 / 30 0 0 10 Winston 42 73 40 72 / 20 0 0 0 Hillsboro 48 80 49 78 / 20 0 0 0 Spaceport 51 80 49 79 / 20 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 40 71 41 73 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 48 78 49 79 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 43 79 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 51 77 50 77 / 20 0 0 0 Animas 49 83 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 51 83 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 52 84 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 51 78 51 77 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

El Paso, TX,