Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
El Paso, TX

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:11PM Thursday September 16, 2021 12:51 PM MDT (18:51 UTC) Moonrise 3:56PMMoonset 1:11AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near El Paso, TX
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location: 31.85, -106.43     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS64 KEPZ 161738 AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1138 AM MDT Thu Sep 16 2021

AVIATION. 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions expected. Winds will start off light and variable before becoming 240-290 generally AOB 10 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots. ISOLD tstorms will be possible mainly east of the Rio Grande, but confidence of timing and occurrence for any individual TAF site is too low to include. Nevertheless, TCS, LRU, and ELP could see outflow winds or a brief TS this afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION. 331 AM MDT Thu Sep 16 2021 .

SYNOPSIS. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected today, mainly east of the Rio Grande. Activity is expected over the Sacramento Mountains, before moving to the lowlands in the late afternoon/evening hours. Warm and dry conditions persist through the weekend, with a slight chance of rain over the Gila/Sac Mtns on Saturday. However, we may see a change in the pattern to start the work week with a trough to our north bringing in some cooler temperatures and breezy winds.

DISCUSSION. SHORT TERM. Today and Tonight Late evening convection managed to settle down quickly after midnight with only a few left over clouds across portions of the CWA to start the day today. Meanwhile convective outflows from that earlier activity has helped pushed dewpoints back up to around 50 or higher for most areas along and east of the Rio Grande as we prepare to start the day. However it would seem that most of this moisture will begin to flush out as the day progresses.

Currently the area remains under a ridge aloft with the main jet displaced well to our north. Models are hinting at some weak lee troughing later today over the eastern plains of New Mexico. This will help turn boundary level winds westerly, effectively pushing the bulk of the low level moisture east of the region by late afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate convective temps in the low to mid 90's for this afternoon and we should have no problem reaching those levels as high temps today will be similar to Wednesday. However with PW values dropping to around .75" later today east of the Rio Grande, I would expect mainly some cumulus development but not much in the way of precipitation. The exception will be over the Sacramento mountains where orographics should manage to jump start convective activity over the higher terrain a little after midday. Likewise wouldn't be at all surprised to see a few lowland storms develop across portions of Otero, Hudspeth, and far eastern El Paso counties where enough moisture should still be around during peak heating of the afternoon. Elsewhere, expect mainly dry and rather warm conditions to prevail through the afternoon and evening hours.

LONG TERM. Friday through Wednesday High pressure aloft reestablishes itself and begins to expand over New Mexico and west Texas on Friday, giving way to warm and dry conditions. Much of the same is expected through the weekend as the ridge of high pressure stays over the region, keeping moisture off to our west in Arizona. The GFS, ECMWF, and NAM are in agreement with stagnant/weak flow and subsidence (sinking air) aloft, along with the lack of moisture at the surface through the weekend. That being said, shower and thunderstorm chances are very slim, mainly focused over the Gila/Sacramento Mountains with 10-15% PoPs in the grids for Saturday. A strong upper level trough will move on shore this week over the Pacific Northwest, as it does so, we begin to see our winds aloft shift westerly. This will push any moisture out of the area on Sunday, giving us another warm and dry day areawide.

The start of the new work week remains dry, but winds will be a bit breezy (remaining well below advisory criteria). As the strong trough moves over the northern Rockies and the associated trough axis swings through, giving the area a day or two of some breezy winds on Monday and Tuesday. Forecast model soundings show a predominantly western component to the winds from the surface to 500mb. Moving into the afternoon hours on Monday and Tuesday, as surface heating increases, thermal turbulence will allow for mixing. This mixing brings the higher winds speeds aloft down to the surface, thus the breezy conditions (10-20 mph).

By Wednesday, the trough axis will be well off to the east. In response to the eastward movement of the trough, a ridge of high pressure will begin to build off the United States west coast keeping the area quiet. As that happens, another trough will dig across British Columbia and down into the Intermountain West on Thursday. The Thursday and Friday timeframe is when the forecast confidence decreases as model guidance isn't in agreement.

FIRE WEATHER. Drier air will begin to overspread much of the region today as an upper ridge continues to build in over the area. There will still be enough moisture in place across far eastern zones to bring at least a small chance for wetting precipitation to those areas in the form of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Elsewhere, dry conditions should be the rule this afternoon. A generally dry weather pattern will then commence for the upcoming weekend and the first half of next week. Min RH values will generally be in the teens for the lowlands and between 20 and 30 percent for higher elevations. Winds should be generally light, so at this time it appears that critical fire weather conditions will be avoided. However surface winds will become a bit more breezy during the afternoon hours as we move ahead into next week.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. El Paso 96 67 97 67 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 88 62 89 61 / 10 10 0 0 Las Cruces 94 61 95 61 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 93 63 95 64 / 10 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 70 49 72 48 / 20 10 0 10 Truth or Consequences 93 62 93 63 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 85 60 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 96 61 95 61 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 93 62 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 96 69 97 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 93 60 95 61 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 96 65 98 66 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 87 62 89 63 / 10 10 0 0 Fabens 96 65 97 66 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 93 63 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 94 66 95 66 / 10 10 0 0 Jornada Range 93 62 94 62 / 10 10 0 0 Hatch 95 60 94 61 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 94 64 94 64 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 93 62 94 63 / 10 10 0 0 Mayhill 80 55 82 53 / 20 10 0 10 Mescalero 81 52 83 52 / 20 10 0 10 Timberon 78 52 80 52 / 20 10 0 0 Winston 86 52 87 53 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 91 62 91 61 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 93 59 93 60 / 10 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 84 50 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 88 57 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 93 53 94 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 88 57 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 88 60 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 93 61 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 92 60 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 92 62 91 61 / 10 10 10 0 Cloverdale 87 60 85 61 / 10 10 10 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NM . None. TX . None.

99/99/99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
El Paso, El Paso International Airport, TX4 mi60 minVar 310.00 miA Few Clouds87°F50°F28%1008.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KELP

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Last 24hrCalmE93CalmN3NW5E11
G19
E74NE16
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E5CalmN8S4SW6SW4SW5S3S3CalmE5443
1 day ago3Calm5Calm3SE4S7S3S6S6S4S7SE5SE8SE9E3CalmCalmN4N9N11N9CalmNE5
2 days agoCalmCalm433E3E5S7S6S5SE5E5SE3SE4CalmS5E5S5S6CalmCalmSW9S9Calm

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