Monday, March8, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
El Paso, TX

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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
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Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 6:10PM Monday March 8, 2021 8:33 AM MST (15:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:29AMMoonset 1:38PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near El Paso, TX
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Area Discussion for -
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FXUS64 KEPZ 081128 AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 428 AM MST Mon Mar 8 2021

. UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE .

AVIATION. 12Z TAF CYCLE . VFR conditions are expected through the period. High clouds will continue moving through the area for the rest of the day and into the overnight hours. By this afternoon, some light showers and virga will be possible in the northern portions, but probabilities remain low. Winds will start light and variable this morning, and become from the southwest after 19Z. Gusty winds are possible during the afternoon hours with gusts up to 25 kts. Winds subside by sunset.

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PREV DISCUSSION. 349 AM MST Mon Mar 8 2021 .

SYNOPSIS. Deep southwest flow across the region will bring high clouds and warmer conditions to the region today. High temperatures in the upper 70s, and maybe even 80, across the lowlands this afternoon will bump temperatures about 10 degrees above normal. The next Pacific storm system is forming out west, and will slowly move toward the Borderland region through the week. This will mean a full week of breezy to windy conditions for most areas. Moisture continues to be lacking across the region, so dry conditions remain in place. The storm finally arrives late Friday and passes Saturday to give the area precipitation chances. After a warm start to the week, temperatures will peak Tuesday and slowly cool to near normal through Friday, before dropping below normal for the weekend.

DISCUSSION. SHORT TERM. Today and Tonight . A weak upper level disturbance is bringing moisture to the region. However, this won't be enough for rain in the early morning hours. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will be possible through the day as moisture aloft continues to advect in our direction. This shortwave is the first wave ejected from an upper closed low that will be affecting our weather pattern this week. Today is the transition day to a week where winds will be the primary hazard. Winds will be shifting this afternoon to the southwest with speeds between 5 to 15 mph with stronger winds aloft, especially over mountain peaks and passes.

The HREF members, and the deterministic NAM are hinting at a chance of showers this afternoon, but the probability is very low. The best chances will be when a surface trough associated to the disturbance aloft quickly passes through, generating some precip over area mountains (like the Gila region, Black Range and Sacs) as the orographics enhance lifting in the area. However, surface dewpoints are so low, below 25F, that most of it will be in the form of virga as dewpoint depression are greater than 40 degrees.

Temperatures continue to rise as the southwest flow brings drier and warmer air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Thus, the lowlands will be in the upper 70s while the El Paso Metro area will be toying with the first 80 degree temp of the year. Temperatures remain mild in the overnight hours as we are expecting more moisture aloft, which will keep the heat trapped across the area. Morning lows will be in the mid 40s for the lowlands, while El Paso stays around 50 degrees.

LONG TERM. Tuesday through Sunday Tuesday the region will be under deep southwest flow well ahead of a slowly approaching Pacific low pressure system. In this flow is plenty of high-level moisture, a bit of mid-level moisture, and a shortwave disturbance. This shortwave will glance the Gila region as it lifts NE over E AN and W Central NM. That area will see a slight risk of brief passing rain showers, but rain amounts should me very low as low-levels remain very dry. The rest of the region will be under abundant high clouds, and continue with dry weather.

Increasing winds for Tuesday will be the theme for the long term periods. As the system slowly moves S along the W coast Tuesday through Friday, we will see tightening pressure gradients aloft and a jet park overheat. At the surface a lee trough will set up to our east. Despite periods of high clouds, warm surface layers will help to create mix-down of strong winds aloft, which will be supported by the low-level gradients and alignment. Thus we are expecting each day to become windy Tuesday through Friday. Wind advisories, for at least portions of the forecast areas, for Tue/ Wed/THU look like a good bet as some areas are likely to see sustained winds at or above 30 mph. Gusts of 50-60 mph are also likely, especially over ridges, through passes, and over east slopes.

Very dry air will also move in WED, after the shortwave exits, with a dry slot parking over the region through early Friday. This will mean fewer clouds, above normal temperatures, and very low relative humidity will combine with the strong winds to help produce areas of blowing dust and critical fire weather conditions. Temperatures will trend downward a bit through the back half of the week, but remain slightly above normal.

Friday night the system arrives, and Saturday it passes. As it does, the region will come under quite strong dynamics, with sharp PVA, jet induced lift, and a cold pool aloft. All this will work with the meager moisture associated with the low pressure system to moisten up the mid and lower atmospheric layers across the region Friday night through Saturday. This marks the window of best opportunity for precipitation. Lowlands will stay too warm to see snow, as snow levels drop no lower than about 6000 ft elevation. As it looks now, the northern zones appear to have better precip chances than the southern zones.

Sunday morning the storm system exits to our west with much cooler and drier air moving in on northwest flow behind the system.

FIRE WEATHER.

Active fire weather week ahead. We are going to be experiencing elevated to critical conditions through Friday. This afternoon, winds shift to the southwest bringing warm and dry air, which will set us up for the risk expected this week. A few isolated places, including mountain peaks and passes, may reach critical thresholds for a short period of time during the afternoon hours. A few showers may be possible in area mountains, but it will most likely be virga because we are too dry near the surface.

Conditions will deteriorate tomorrow and for the rest of the week. Relative humidity continues to drop, and wind speeds goes up leading to a high risk for fire weather. Thus, we have a fire weather watch in effect for Tuesday. This watch is likely to be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning later this morning. Critical conditions are expected on Wednesday as relative humidity drops to the single digits along with the strongest winds expected this week with 20-ft winds between 15 to 30 mph. A very similar scenario is expected on Thursday, but winds will be slightly weaker. Fire weather conditions improve by Friday, but we can still see areas that may reach red flag criteria. All of this activity is a result of the slow approach of an upper level storm system moving along the West Coast.

This system finally reaches Arizona on Friday, and makes it to the area by Friday night and Saturday. It pushes some moisture towards us, resulting in chances for rain in the northern portions of the forecast area, and snow in the highest elevations of area mountains. This will alleviate and reduce the risk for fire weather concerns. However, we are still seeing windy conditions on Saturday, before winds finally relax on Sunday.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. El Paso 80 51 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 75 46 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 78 48 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 76 50 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 54 39 54 35 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 77 48 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 69 46 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 78 44 77 38 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 77 45 74 36 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 80 54 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 78 42 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 83 46 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 73 48 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 82 48 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 77 48 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 77 54 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 75 49 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 77 48 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 79 50 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 77 48 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 67 43 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 65 41 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 63 38 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 70 37 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 75 45 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 75 48 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 69 41 64 33 / 0 0 10 0 Hurley 72 41 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 75 41 71 33 / 0 0 10 0 Mule Creek 70 46 65 34 / 0 0 10 0 Faywood 72 46 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 79 46 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 78 46 77 38 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 79 47 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 72 48 70 41 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NM . Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NMZ111-112.

TX . None.

29-Crespo/14-Bird


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
El Paso, El Paso International Airport, TX4 mi42 minSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F29°F37%1019.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KELP

Wind History from ELP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN63N4E4SW545CalmS3CalmE4E3CalmNE4E4E3NW4NE3E5CalmCalmS5S3SW3
1 day agoE13
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SE8SE7E5E5E10CalmNE4N5N5N4NE3E3E3NE6N4N4
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E8SE7CalmS7SE5SE7E5E6N4N3N5

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