Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
El Paso, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 7:55PM Monday August 10, 2020 12:55 PM MDT (18:55 UTC) Moonrise 11:05PMMoonset 11:43AM Illumination 57% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near El Paso, TX
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location: 31.85, -106.43     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS64 KEPZ 101750 AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1150 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

AVIATION. 18Z TAF CYCLE NWerly surface winds will help usher in drier air this afternoon, essentially shutting off the moisture tap we've seen the past several days. Thunderstorm development today will remain east of terminals this afternoon. Therefore expect VFR conditions with ceilings FEW120 FEW250 and northwest winds AOB 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION. 154 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 .

SYNOPSIS. A westward shift in the upper-level ridge will interrupt the 2020 monsoon across the Borderland as it brings in a much drier airmass for the work week. Monsoon moisture will get pushed south of the region as drier air moves in from the west and north. This will mean few to no storms across the region for most days this week. The presence of the upper high will also mean we are in for a period of well above normal heat as we see a streak of 100 degree afternoons across the lowlands that should last into next weekend. Lowland highs will average in the 102 to 105 range, as overnight lows stay warm and mild. Heat, not storms, will be the significant weather concern for the week. Moisture and storms should be on the increase next weekend.

DISCUSSION. SHORT TERM. Today and Tonight . A broad area of high pressure continues to gradually shift back to the west and strengthen overhead. Due to the changing position of the ridge, our winds look to become northwesterly today. This means that our moisture tap will be cut off and drier air will push in. Dewpoints are forecast to drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon and PW values will decrease to less than three-quarters of an inch. Also, CAPE basically looks to be nonexistent, with the exception being over the mountains. With all of that being said, precip chances are expected to become very limited starting today. A few hi-res models show short-lived scattered cells developing this afternoon across portions of the lowlands. However, I think we'll struggle to get any storms to form outside of the higher terrain. Slightly higher dewpoints and minimal CAPE values will be present in the Sacramento Mountains, so the best storm chances are forecast to be there. Kept low PoPs in for Otero and Hudspeth Counties in case something drifts down from the mountains behind an outflow. High temperatures will warm another degree or two this afternoon resulting in most of the lowlands topping out at or above the 100 degree mark.

LONG TERM. It appears we got an early start to the drying and stabilization of the airmass over the Borderland on Sunday, as we saw a dramatic drop in the coverage of showers and storms across the region. This trend will continue and persist through most of the week ahead as upper-level high pressure stays parked directly over our forecast area. The monsoon moisture plume will cut off with the bulk of the moisture staying south of our region due to the circulation around the high importing a drier, more continental airmass in from the atypically dry SW and Great Basin regions. The GFS and the NAM models differ significantly on the magnitude of the drying; the GFS with PWATs around 0.75" and the NAM around 0.90". None the less, with warm air and subsidence aloft, PWATs below 1.00", and surface dewpoint mixing down into the 30s and lower 40s each afternoon this week, the airmass be likely be too stable and too capped to generate more than a couple of (mainly) mountain storms each afternoon.

The big weather message for the week will be HEAT. Temperatures will be well above normal with highs generally 10+ degrees above mid-August normals. This means most of the lowlands will see 100 degree afternoons each day this week. Overnight lows will also tend to be mild, with urban areas keeping the heat, and staying in the mid to upper 70s. Therefore, it is quite possible that Heat Advisory criteria will be met for the TX Rio Grande Valley, and El Paso.

Late in the week (FRI/SAT) models suggest a further westward jog of the the upper high, as weak shortwave troughs track east across the mid and upper Plains. This should allow for a reintroduction of moderate low-level moisture back into our region on east winds behind door boundaries that will push into our region from the east. We will begin to include POPS, although low, back into the forecast by Friday/Saturday. However the coverage does look to stay mostly isolated in nature, and temperatures appear to stay quite warm.

FIRE WEATHER. An area of high pressure will shift back west over the Borderland starting today and persist through at least mid to late week. This will usher in drier air and limit any afternoon storm chances to the higher terrain. Min RHs will drop to 10-15% through Thursday and high temperatures will top out above 100 degrees in most lowland locations each afternoon. Winds look to remain fairly light, except for around any thunderstorms that develop where gusty, erratic winds will be possible. Vent rates will generally be fair to good.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. El Paso 75 103 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 69 98 69 99 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 69 101 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 72 103 72 104 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 55 79 54 80 / 10 10 0 20 Truth or Consequences 71 100 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 66 93 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 67 102 68 103 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 68 100 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 76 104 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 71 103 71 104 / 10 0 10 0 Fort Hancock 75 104 75 105 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 72 97 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 76 103 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 72 103 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 74 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 70 101 71 102 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 70 102 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 72 103 72 104 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 72 102 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 61 88 61 90 / 10 10 0 20 Mescalero 59 89 59 90 / 10 10 0 10 Timberon 59 87 59 88 / 10 10 0 10 Winston 59 91 59 92 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 67 99 67 100 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 69 101 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 59 93 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 64 96 65 97 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 61 99 63 100 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 65 95 65 96 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 67 97 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 67 100 67 102 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 66 100 67 102 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 67 98 67 100 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 64 93 65 95 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NM . None. TX . None.

99/99/99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
El Paso, El Paso International Airport, TX4 mi65 minSSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds97°F48°F20%1009.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KELP

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Last 24hr3N353CalmSE4E3CalmSE9SE8E5N3CalmCalmS9SE6S4N4W3CalmSE5SW5SW4SW6
1 day agoS6CalmE44CalmCalmS6SE4SE5SE5SE9W12NW15N11E6N10N10N6CalmCalmE3S3Calm3
2 days ago6S7NW10
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S10SE6NE3NE5E4NE3N5N4N8N5NE5SE3Calm

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.