Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Paso, TX
May 5, 2024 2:10 PM MDT (20:10 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:14 AM Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 3:37 AM Moonset 4:24 PM |
Area Discussion for - El Paso, TX
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FXUS64 KEPZ 051730 AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1130 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Warm and breezy to windy conditions are expected through the upcoming week, resulting in higher fire danger.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024
A shallow surge of moisture has made it to El Paso early this morning from the east associated with a backdoor cold front. Dew points have spiked into the low 50s east of the mountain chain from the metro area up to White Sands with the moisture slowed down by the natural barriers. This moisture surge will be short- lived, getting flushed out of the CWA during the day by deep SW flow ahead of a deep upper low over the Great Basin. Very dry conditions and breezy winds are expected this afternoon, especially further west closer to the base of the trough. Dust models are not excited about blowing dust potential later today since the main dust sources in northern Chihuahua are underneath relatively light winds compared to areas out west. The Lordsburg Playa is most likely to see visibility reductions. More modest breezes are forecast for far west TX today.
The Pacific front rolls through tonight, cooling temperatures slightly for Monday. Winds will be breezy to windy across the region under the base of a longwave trough and with a moderate surface pressure gradient. Generally 20-30 mph winds with gusts to 40 mph are expected on Monday, shifting westerly behind the Pacific front. Tuesday looks quite similar with strong zonal flow overhead and temps a touch warmer. Another breezy day is expected for Wednesday as the upper low meanders into the Northern Plains from the Rockies.
A chunk of the main low then retrogrades into the Great Basin based on the GEFS mean courtesy of a Rex block over SW Canada. As it does so, a backdoor front rides down the high plains and provides our area with an uptick in moisture for Friday. We'll see if anything comes of this next potential moisture surge in terms of convection, or if it will be similar to what we see today.
Model guidance is uncertain regarding how the disturbance to our north acts into next weekend. Winds subside somewhat later in the week as temperatures remain above normal.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024
VFR conditions expected though there is a slight risk for BLDU at TAF sites, with an attendant risk for category reductions.
Otherwise, skies are expected to be SKC-FEW250. Winds will become breezy this afternoon, topping out 15-25 kts with some gusts to 25 knots. Direction starts more SW'LY (200-230) but will become more westerly this afternoon and into the evening hours. Breezy conditions will continue into the overnight hours as well. LLWS may be a factor at all sites, especially LRU and ELP.
Overnight winds are a bit uncertain for ELP. Speeds will be close to AWW criteria.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024
RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
Fire weather concerns will be moderate to high for the first half of the week. For today, winds will be breezy from the southwest, especially in northwestern areas, ahead of an upper low along with very dry conditions. Combined, these factors result in RFTIs of 4-7 (near critical to extreme) for FWZs 110, 111, and 112. FWZ 113 will have somewhat lighter winds today, so more of a borderline Red Flag day there. Far west TX will see comparatively lighter winds this afternoon.
More widespread breezy to windy conditions are expected for Monday as winds shift westerly behind the Pacific front and humidities rise slightly. RFTIs are forecast to be 3-6 on Monday (near critical to critical). The fire weather watches have been upgraded to RFWs for Monday across the area. Tuesday is looking like the highest fire danger day of this stretch (RFTI 5-8) with lower RHs than Monday and low-end windy conditions again. Watches will be posted within the next 24 hours for Tuesday as confidence is high in a red flag day. RFTIs fall to mostly 3 on Wednesday, so more of an SPS day it seems. For the rest of the week, winds stay on the breezy side as moisture levels creep up, lowering the threat of fire weather. ERCs will continue to rise as temperatures remain above normal and dry westerly winds persist.
Min RHs range from 5-12%. Vent rates will be excellent through Thursday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 90 61 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 85 55 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 90 54 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 85 54 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 63 42 59 39 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 85 53 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 77 45 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 88 51 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 86 49 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 87 57 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 89 52 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 92 54 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 81 54 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 90 56 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 86 52 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 87 60 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 86 52 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 88 54 84 47 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 87 54 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 85 54 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 76 49 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 74 47 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 72 43 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 78 44 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 83 49 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 85 50 83 44 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 78 42 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 82 44 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 84 47 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 79 44 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 81 47 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 85 49 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 86 50 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 85 49 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 79 46 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for TXZ055-056.
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ110>113.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1130 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Warm and breezy to windy conditions are expected through the upcoming week, resulting in higher fire danger.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024
A shallow surge of moisture has made it to El Paso early this morning from the east associated with a backdoor cold front. Dew points have spiked into the low 50s east of the mountain chain from the metro area up to White Sands with the moisture slowed down by the natural barriers. This moisture surge will be short- lived, getting flushed out of the CWA during the day by deep SW flow ahead of a deep upper low over the Great Basin. Very dry conditions and breezy winds are expected this afternoon, especially further west closer to the base of the trough. Dust models are not excited about blowing dust potential later today since the main dust sources in northern Chihuahua are underneath relatively light winds compared to areas out west. The Lordsburg Playa is most likely to see visibility reductions. More modest breezes are forecast for far west TX today.
The Pacific front rolls through tonight, cooling temperatures slightly for Monday. Winds will be breezy to windy across the region under the base of a longwave trough and with a moderate surface pressure gradient. Generally 20-30 mph winds with gusts to 40 mph are expected on Monday, shifting westerly behind the Pacific front. Tuesday looks quite similar with strong zonal flow overhead and temps a touch warmer. Another breezy day is expected for Wednesday as the upper low meanders into the Northern Plains from the Rockies.
A chunk of the main low then retrogrades into the Great Basin based on the GEFS mean courtesy of a Rex block over SW Canada. As it does so, a backdoor front rides down the high plains and provides our area with an uptick in moisture for Friday. We'll see if anything comes of this next potential moisture surge in terms of convection, or if it will be similar to what we see today.
Model guidance is uncertain regarding how the disturbance to our north acts into next weekend. Winds subside somewhat later in the week as temperatures remain above normal.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024
VFR conditions expected though there is a slight risk for BLDU at TAF sites, with an attendant risk for category reductions.
Otherwise, skies are expected to be SKC-FEW250. Winds will become breezy this afternoon, topping out 15-25 kts with some gusts to 25 knots. Direction starts more SW'LY (200-230) but will become more westerly this afternoon and into the evening hours. Breezy conditions will continue into the overnight hours as well. LLWS may be a factor at all sites, especially LRU and ELP.
Overnight winds are a bit uncertain for ELP. Speeds will be close to AWW criteria.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024
RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
Fire weather concerns will be moderate to high for the first half of the week. For today, winds will be breezy from the southwest, especially in northwestern areas, ahead of an upper low along with very dry conditions. Combined, these factors result in RFTIs of 4-7 (near critical to extreme) for FWZs 110, 111, and 112. FWZ 113 will have somewhat lighter winds today, so more of a borderline Red Flag day there. Far west TX will see comparatively lighter winds this afternoon.
More widespread breezy to windy conditions are expected for Monday as winds shift westerly behind the Pacific front and humidities rise slightly. RFTIs are forecast to be 3-6 on Monday (near critical to critical). The fire weather watches have been upgraded to RFWs for Monday across the area. Tuesday is looking like the highest fire danger day of this stretch (RFTI 5-8) with lower RHs than Monday and low-end windy conditions again. Watches will be posted within the next 24 hours for Tuesday as confidence is high in a red flag day. RFTIs fall to mostly 3 on Wednesday, so more of an SPS day it seems. For the rest of the week, winds stay on the breezy side as moisture levels creep up, lowering the threat of fire weather. ERCs will continue to rise as temperatures remain above normal and dry westerly winds persist.
Min RHs range from 5-12%. Vent rates will be excellent through Thursday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 90 61 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 85 55 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 90 54 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 85 54 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 63 42 59 39 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 85 53 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 77 45 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 88 51 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 86 49 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 87 57 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 89 52 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 92 54 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 81 54 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 90 56 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 86 52 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 87 60 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 86 52 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 88 54 84 47 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 87 54 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 85 54 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 76 49 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 74 47 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 72 43 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 78 44 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 83 49 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 85 50 83 44 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 78 42 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 82 44 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 84 47 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 79 44 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 81 47 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 85 49 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 86 50 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 85 49 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 79 46 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for TXZ055-056.
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ110>113.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBIF BIGGS AAF (FORT BLISS),TX | 3 sm | 15 min | SW 10G15 | 7 sm | A Few Clouds | 82°F | 16°F | 8% | 29.93 | |
| KELP EL PASO INTL,TX | 4 sm | 19 min | SSE 08G19 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 84°F | 16°F | 8% | 29.89 | |
| KDNA DONA ANA COUNTY INTL JETPORT,NM | 14 sm | 15 min | S 08G19 | 10 sm | Clear | 82°F | 12°F | 7% | 29.91 |
El Paso, TX,
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