Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 7:17 PM Moonrise 10:19 PM   Moonset 7:22 AM

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FXUS65 KTWC 260957 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 257 AM MST Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS

A weather system will bring gusty winds today and breezy winds on Saturday. A few showers north of Tucson through the White Mountains can't be ruled out tonight and Saturday, but most chances should remain further to the north. Temperatures will fall below average through the weekend, before a rapid warming trend arrives early next week.

DISCUSSION

Following a shortwave yesterday, a deeper trough and associated jet max will arrive and cross Arizona today through Saturday.
Ahead of the trough axis today a tightening pressure gradient will bring increased west to southwest winds to southeast Arizona, maximizing this afternoon and early evening. Trough timing is a bit late to be able to truly bring strong winds to the surface during better boundary layer mixing hours, but the pressure gradient should bring winds to near advisory criteria either way.
Winds will likely remain breezy into the late night hours in eastern areas (as well as exposed elevations across the region)
with the lingering pressure gradient and crossing jet streak, as depicted by MOS guidance keeping locations like Safford and Douglas near or above 15 knots through midnight. An influx of Pacific moisture combined with cooling mid-levels associated with the crossing trough may produce a few showers late tonight, mainly across Pinal, Graham, and Greenlee counties. The moisture depth on forecast soundings is fairly shallow, so any precipitation should remain light.

NAEFS climatological analysis shows low to mid level temperatures on Saturday will be under the 10th percentile for this time of year, producing highs around 8 to 12 degrees below normal. Winds should be lighter than today but still breezy, while a few diurnal showers should form over the Whites as the trough center passes aloft. Behind this trough, a cool Sunday morning will be in store for colder spots east of Tucson. Current forecast low for Willcox (and the rest of the Sulphur Springs Valley) Sunday morning dips into the mid 30s, with a 10% chance of falling to 32 degrees from the NBM.

Mid-level heights quickly rise following the exit of Saturday's trough, which brings temperatures above normal early next week.
While 500mb heights are forecast to be a bit on the climatologically higher side, zonal flow should keep high temperatures from becoming excessively anomalous. This pattern also keeps the forecast dry, at least until troughing showing up on ensemble guidance potentially develops by next weekend.

AVIATION
Valid through 27/12Z.
Clear skies/SKC conditions thru 26/18Z, then FEW-SCT clouds at 8k- 11k ft AGL, mainly to the east of KTUS thru the remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind less than 12 kts and variable in direction thru 26/17Z and for most locations again aft 27/05Z. SLY/SWLY SFC wind increasing aft 26/17Z to 17-25 kts and gusts to 27-35 kts between 26/19Z and 27/04Z. The exception to wind speeds diminishing aft 27/04Z will be across portions of Cochise County especially in the vicinity of KALK and KDUG where SLY/SWLY winds of 15-20 kts and higher gusts will persist thru the end of the valid period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.



FIRE WEATHER
A storm system will move across the area tonight and Saturday, resulting in below normal temperatures through the weekend and highs 7-11 degrees below normal on Saturday. In advance of this system, strong south to southwest winds are expected across the forecast area today into the evening hours tonight. Wind speeds will exceed critical fire weather thresholds, with 20-foot winds of 20-28 mph and gusts to 35-40 mph. However, min RH values will mostly be above the 15 percent level, except for isolated areas in far southeast Graham county and the eastern half of Cochise county during the mid/late afternoon hours. This system will also bring a chance of showers mainly north/northeast of Safford tonight and Saturday and maybe even a few lighting strikes.

Wind speeds remain breezy on Saturday, but are expected to be below critical levels. Less wind then is expected Sunday through early next week. Min RH values in the valleys will be in the 10-15 percent range Sunday, decreasing into the single digits next week. Min RH values in the mountains will be in the 15-30 percent range Sunday, lowering to 12-20 percent next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Fri -- 05:57 AM MST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:25 AM MST     Moonset
Fri -- 08:51 AM MST     -2.76 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 03:22 PM MST     2.50 meters High Tide
Fri -- 07:15 PM MST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:24 PM MST     -1.43 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 10:20 PM MST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet

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Fri -- 02:26 AM MST     3.87 meters High Tide
Fri -- 05:53 AM MST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:22 AM MST     Moonset
Fri -- 08:38 AM MST     -0.42 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 03:11 PM MST     4.48 meters High Tide
Fri -- 07:10 PM MST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:14 PM MST     0.82 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 10:15 PM MST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

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