Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wellton Hills, AZ

DISCUSSION
Welcome to Monsoon 2026! Mother nature already has a head start as ongoing overnight convection continues early this morning. Latest KEMX radar imagery shows an area of showers and thunderstorms across Graham/Greenlee/Cochise Counties and another that has formed over NW Pinal County in the past couple of hours.
These are all moving to the east-southeast at 10 to 20 mph. The CAMs have been struggling with this convection as it's being aided by some weak disturbances embedded within the mid to upper level west to southwest flow. With that said, the general trend for the eastern convection is that it should gradually weaken and push towards the AZ/NM border while the newer Pinal County development may persist a bit longer.

It's an interesting forecast for today as we continue to have abundant moisture for mid June across the area with PWATs ranging from about 1 to 1.5 inches (lower eastern areas, higher west). The combination of this moisture and strong daytime heating will once again result in ample instability (MLCAPE ranging from 750-1500 J/KG) this afternoon. That should set the stage for more scattered shower and thunderstorm development across most of the forecast area. The corridor that we're most focused on for the potential for isolated stronger storms including locally heavy rain and strong gusty outflow winds with the potential for blowing dust extends from Santa Cruz County north into central/eastern Pima County and SE Pinal County. The HRRR continues to depict 10 to 30 percent 40-km neighborhood probabilities of winds in excess of 50 kts for this same region. Rain amounts with the strongest storms will be locally be 1 to 1.5 inches. The timing will be focused during the afternoon into early evening hours with less likelihood of convection persisting well into the overnight again.

For Tuesday, the deepest moisture will nudge back closer to the Int'l border with PWATs closer to 0.8 to 1.2 inches across the forecast area. This will result in isolated to scattered storms (20 to 30 percent chance) mainly along the Int'l border eastward with slight (10 percent) chances elsewhere.

The retreat in thunderstorm chances closer to the Int'l border may be short lived as the combination of increased divergence aloft ahead of a weak mid-upper low near the CA/AZ border Wednesday will result in a more favorable lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms from Tucson south and eastward. For Thursday and Friday, still some uncertainty on the mid-upper level details but still enough moisture for isolated to scattered storms mainly south and east of Tucson. As a more established subtropical high takes hold to our south this weekend with troughiness well to our north that should result in enough dry westerly flow to shunt thunderstorm chances well to our south and east this weekend.

Temperatures will be near normal through the forecast period with breezy west to northwest winds each afternoon. Winds will especially be gusty Tuesday through Thursday in the Safford area where gusts of 30+ mph are expected.

AVIATION
Valid through 16/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds 8k-12k ft AGL and AOA 18k ft AGL through the forecast period. Expect isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA across Pinal/Graham/Greenlee/Cochise Counties to mostly diminish by 15/12Z.
Renewed TSRA/SHRA development is expected aft 15/19Z, continuing into the early evening hours with potential to impact KTUS/KOLS/KDUG terminals. Main threats will be gusty outflow winds 25-45 kts with these storms. Otherwise, outside of storm influences, light SFC winds less than 10 kts this morning, then aft 15/19Z becoming WLY/NWLY 7-14 kts gusting to 20 kts, with gusts to 25 kts at KSAD this afternoon and evening. SFC winds diminish to 10 kts or less again aft 16/04Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Winds will remain west/northwest through this week with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts to 22 mph across much of the area with stronger speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph in lower elevations of Graham county. Moisture levels will remain elevated for much of the week, with minimum relative humidity 15-30 percent in lower elevations and 30-40 percent in the mountains. This will bring bring chances (20-60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into evening for much of southeast Arizona with brief heavy rain under the storm cores along with gusty outflow winds and lightning. Storms will be focused along the Int'l border from Nogales eastward Tuesday, then from Tucson south and eastward mid to late week before dry conditions move in area-wide for the weekend. For Wednesday and Thursday elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be possible in the Gila River Valley as winds increase and RH drops below 15 percent.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.