Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wellton Hills, AZ

DISCUSSION

An upper level trough crossing the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and then Northern Rockies today will extend south into the desert southwest, while a weak circulation will become separated from the main trough and sit just off the western Baja coast. The strongest upper level winds from this trough remain well to the north however this persisting trough will still drive afternoon breezes over the next several days southeastern Arizona. Early this morning, southerly flow from the aforementioned synoptic setup was pulling in a stream of mid- level moisture over southeastern Arizona, producing widespread clouds and a few lightning strikes mainly from Cochise through Graham and Greenlee counties. The synoptic forcing for this activity will wane through the morning with this activity shifting off to the east.

Today, modest mid-level height rises will bring high temperatures up 2 to 4 degrees from yesterday, producing areas of moderate HeatRisk across lower elevation areas along and east of a Tucson-Nogales line. A westward shifting subtropical ridge will bring temperatures up a few more degrees on Wednesday.

The incoming subtropical ridge will also turn mean winds southerly and bring an increase in atmospheric moisture to the region through the second half of the week. Mean precipitable water values from the 00Z ensemble suite range from 1-1.3 inches by this weekend with surface dew points creeping up over 45-50 degrees. Where models have struggled is how to resolve the shower/thunderstorm potential with this moisture initially arriving in mainly the mid to upper levels. While the moisture content maximizes this weekend, it wouldn't be surprising to see isolated activity as early as Thursday especially across southern locations. From the end of the work week into early next week the daily forecast chances (15-35 percent) are mainly tied to areas near terrain especially near the International Border and the White Mountains, with currently low but non-zero chances elsewhere. Convective chances will evolve day to day depending on the previous day's previous activity.

AVIATION
Valid through 10/12Z.

SCT-BKN ceilings 8k-12k feet main from KTUS-KOLS east will give way to mainly clear skies by the late morning. Mainly virga with these clouds with a very isolated chance of lightning. Surface winds become southwesterly 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts after 09/18Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER

Winds today will remain southwesterly 12-18 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph, with a shift to the west tomorrow and northwest Thursday. Minimum relative humidity values generally 8-14 percent with an increase in moisture Thursday through the weekend. This moisture will begin to introduce chances for showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and lightning as early as Thursday, though with better chances (generally 15-35 percent) Friday into early next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.