Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wellton Hills, AZ

DISCUSSION
Southeast Arizona is transitioning out of the active/wet period we've had since Friday into a pattern much more reminiscent of what we are accustomed to getting deeper into Autumn.
The broader pattern continues to be dominated by a trough and associated upper level low now moving down the north central California coast with southwest flow across our forecast area. This southwesterly flow is now starting to filter in drier conditions from the west with PWAT values now under an inch. With abundant near surface moisture and wet soils, we can't rule out a few spots of fog early this morning. Many locales will continue to see enough wind to preclude fog but the most sheltered valleys especially in Cochise County would be the most susceptible. Also, can't rule out a spot shower early this morning to the north and east of Tucson but that will quickly fade as the day progresses.

With the aforementioned trough moving into the Great Basin and a trough axis pushing through our area Wednesday into Thursday, the first substantive/sustained push of significantly cooler temperatures of the season will push into southeast Arizona. Highs will be slightly below normal today but by Thursday we're looking at highs for all valleys and deserts in the 70s, or about 7 to 12 degrees below normal. Notably cool mornings as well with lows in the 50s in the deserts/valleys starting Wednesday with 40s creeping into the picture starting Thursday south and east of Tucson. Temperatures will moderate this weekend as the trough departs and some ridging builds back in, returning to seasonable levels Sunday and Monday as dry conditions continue.

AVIATION
Valid through 15/12Z. Generally SKC-SCT clouds 4-8k ft AGL thu the valid period. Biggest concern is the potential for some fog with IFR conditions between 13/10Z through about 13/16Z mainly for KOLS/KDUG terminals. Otherwise, SFC winds mainly SELY/SLY at 7- 14 kts and gusts 20-25 kts this afternoon. SFC winds then diminish to less than 10 kts aft 15/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Drier conditions move in today and continue into next week. Minimum RH values will be at least 30+ percent in the valley's through Wednesday, with higher values in the mountains. Min RH values lower into the 20-30 percent range in the valleys Thursday into the weekend. 20-foot winds mainly 15 mph or less this week, with occasional gusts to 20-25 mph. High temperatures will be below normal into this weekend.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.