Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wellton Hills, AZ

DISCUSSION
Water vapor shows a trough over the central and northern Great Plains and a ridge building into the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. The ridge will help pinch off a cutoff low later today that will sit over southern California and northern Baja through Saturday. At the surface high pressure is beginning to form over Montana and Wyoming and will move south along the lee of the Rockies and strengthen over the next 24 hours. By Friday afternoon the center of the high will be over eastern Colorado and will be 3.5-4.5 standard deviations above average. This will set up a very strong pressure gradient over southern Arizona leading to a prolonged very strong easterly wind event.

NAEFS mean 850 mb winds are 40-55 kts Friday morning into the afternoon which is 5-7 standard deviations above the CFSR climatology. The ECMWF EFI for wind speed is showing widespread values of 0.95-1.0 which signifies a very anomalous wind event.
Also, thanks to the position of the closed low over Baja 700-500 mb winds will be out of the southeast, so momentum transfer down to the surface will have a similar direction to the surface, which is not typical for east wind events.

Hi-res models all indicate that the strongest winds will be on the leeward side (west to northwest side) of mountain ranges indicating that wind gusts will be aided by mountain wave action as well as downsloping. REFS wind gust probabilities for 70 mph or greater in the lee of the mountains is 50-90 percent Friday morning and early afternoon and again Friday night. It's even showing localized areas on the lee side of the Chiricahuas and northwest of the Catalinas (i.e. Saddlebrooke) that have a 20-50 percent chance to see 80 mph gusts Friday morning.
Elsewhere expect sustained speeds 30-45 mph with gusts 50-70 mph. These winds will be capable of downing trees and power poles as well as generating blowing dust. High profile vehicles should also use caution when driving in cross winds.

The High Wind Warning was extended 6 hours to 5 AM Saturday due to new model guidance showing HWW criteria sustained winds and gusts lasting past the initial end time of 11 PM Friday. A Wind Advisory is then in effect from 5 AM Saturday through 2 PM Saturday.

In the tropics Simon is about 270 miles southeast of Cabo and will travel northwest paralleling the Cabo coast this weekend into early next week. It's track is trending further west over the past 24 hours. Even with the more westward track, the closed low over Baja will help transport moisture from Simon into southeast Arizona Friday into next week. Friday western Pima County will see a slight chance for showers and storms, but HRRR and REFS members keep most of the activity in Sonora. Saturday chances increase for most of southeast Arizona with 20-50 PoPs.
Sunday could see a brief break in rain chances, but the upper air pattern stays fairly progressive. By Sunday the closed low over Baja opens up and flattens out as a Pacific low approaches the Pacific Northwest and then moves down the west coast early to mid next week. Moisture sticks around and this will lead to continued below normal temperatures and 20-50 PoPs through mid next week.

AVIATION
Valid through 17/00Z.
Skies will be SKC for the majority of the forecast period with FEW-SCT clouds 6k-10k from KTUS-KOLS westward after 16/21Z. SFC winds will be ELY/NELY 5-10 kts this afternoon. Winds will strengthen significantly this evening and overnight, becoming ELY/SELY 30-40 kts with gusts 45-60 kts after 16/03Z at KDUG and after 16/05Z at KOLS and KTUS. This will be a mountain-wave pattern, with very strong descending winds occuring on the leeward side of the higher terrain. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Temperatures will remain below normal through this weekend. A strong surface high pressure area will move into Southeast Arizona from the east this evening resulting in strong to very strong east to southeast winds late tonight into Saturday. These winds are expected to be especially strong and potentially damaging. Locations on the lee-side of the higher terrain, terrain gaps, and east-to-west oriented valleys will be susceptible to the strongest winds Friday morning. For these areas expect speeds 35-45 mph with gusts 55-75 mph Friday morning into the evening, then 25-35 mph with gusts 50-60 mph Friday night into Saturday. Minimum relative humidity remains above 25-40 percent through the weekend. There will also be a 20-50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday into next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Saturday for AZZ503>509-511>514.
Wind Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 2 PM MST Saturday for AZZ502- 515.
Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM MST Saturday for AZZ503>509- 511>514.