Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Richmond Hill, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:22PM Friday December 13, 2019 9:01 AM EST (14:01 UTC) Moonrise 6:55PMMoonset 8:33AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 705 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..NE winds 15 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft this afternoon. Showers. A slight chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Patchy fog in the evening. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Sat..W winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 705 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. An area of low pressure will track across the area today and tonight. High pressure will then build over the region Saturday and persist into early next week. A cold front will shift across the area Tuesday, followed by high pressure into late next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Richmond Hill, GA
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location: 31.95, -81.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 131222 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 722 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. An area of low pressure will track across the area today and tonight. High pressure will then build over the region Saturday and persist into early next week. A cold front will shift across the area Tuesday, followed by high pressure into late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Today: While the larger picture features remain in place for widespread unsettled weather and a bout of soaking rains today, the complexities in the mesoscale and sub-boundary layer conditions remain a significant forecast challenge. Prior to late-morning we will see stable cool temps in the wedge pattern continuing. An interesting upper jet structure and building deep moisture advection and convergence indicate rains with pockets of convective elements will expand from south to north quickly this morning with POPs going categorical during the morning. The stubborn inland wedge and cool and stable near-surface layers present problems with developing warm front and building low- level warm air advection. During the latter half of the afternoon, it looks like the warm front will lift north into our far southern GA zones to the south of I-16 and probably nudging into the U.S. 17 corridor in SC. Since the rains should be persistent and often convective, there is much uncertainly forecasting the progression of the warm front. We have tightened the temp gradient from northwest to southeast with temps well inland to the SC Midlands perhaps struggling to hit 50 degrees while South GA locales like Darien perhaps approach 70 late.

The stability gradients also look to be extremely tight with respect to surface/boundary layer instability later today. Given the amount of upper forcing and mid level height falls expected, there appears to be enough mid level instability to support thunder during the afternoon. The risk of severe weather will likely be rooted in the warm sector and this should be mainly south of the area and offshore through sunset. Along the warm front, isolated stronger tstms with some rotation cannot be ruled out across Southeast GA to the south of I-16 late in the day. QPF amounts will exceed an inch most areas with locally higher amounts today. Some of developing rains at mid morning along coastal areas may tend to exacerbate ongoing shallow coastal flooding.

Tonight: A dynamic pattern is forecast with continuing mid level height falls ahead of an advancing short wave racing across the Lower Gulf Coast. The short wave is forecast to negatively tilt overnight and this will drive a cold front through much of the forecast area very late. This situation would be problematic if we were expecting more CAPE potential, but it looks like surface dew points in the lower 60s will be limited to right along the coastal areas with MLCAPEs generally less than 500 J/KG. During the overnight hours, there could be an organized line of strongly forced convective rains with some thunder, however severe weather potential remains marginal at best due to very limited instability and stable surface-based conditions. Rain chances will diminish from west to east around daybreak with temps most areas in the 50s nearing daybreak.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Saturday: Aloft, the axis of a mid-upper lvl trough of low pressure will track across the Southeast United States, eventually shifting offshore by the evening. At the sfc, low pressure will quickly exit to the north/northeast late morning and will be replaced by high pressure from the west. Sufficient forcing and lingering moisture should favor a few showers during morning hours, but expect most activity to shift offshore and to the north as west winds prevail by the afternoon. Temps will be warmer behind the departing system, peaking in the mid/upper 60s during afternoon hours. Overnight, conditions will be dry with high pressure dominating the pattern. Low temps should range in the low/mid 40s away from the coast.

Sunday and Monday: A period of quiet weather is expected as the center of sfc high pressure slowly shifts across the area Sunday, then becomes positioned just off the coast on Monday. The changing pattern will favor a warming trend as west winds turn south and advect much warmer air to the region ahead of a developing low pressure system tracking across the Central United States. In general, high temps will peak in the mid/upper 60s Sunday, then low/mid 70s Monday. Overnight lows should range in the mid/upper 40s away from the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The area will become warm-sectored Monday night into Tuesday ahead of a cold front expected to shift across the region Tuesday afternoon afternoon/evening. Temps will be the warmest of the week on Tuesday, peaking in the mid 70s across several areas. Sfc heating should also be sufficient to produce some instability along/near fropa, suggesting a few thunderstorms embedded in numerous showers until the front reaches the coast. Dry and cooler high pressure will then build across the area Tuesday night through late week. Temps will be some 15-20 degrees cooler following the front with highs generally peaking in the mid/upper 50s and overnight lows in the low/mid 30s away from the coast. A few showers could return next weekend as a coastal trough takes form along the Southeast Coast.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Showers were into KSAV at 12Z but they were still holding off at KCHS with cigs mostly in the low-end MVFR range at both terminals. We expect showers to increase in coverage and intensity throughout the day with IFR cigs becoming common. In the wake of an initial surface wave this afternoon, there is concern that very low cigs and perhaps some fog develops in the vicinity of a warm front. We maintained IFR cigs through tonight with a secondary surge of convective rains expected after midnight.

The rain is still on the way and we have prevailing rains and IFR cigs today along with IFR vsbys likely at times in heavier showers. As a warm front develops later today, there is a chance that LIFR conditions develop develop late day or early this evening in the wake of the surface low that skirts up the SC coast. We will continue to monitor surface/model trends for build down low clouds during this time period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: MVFR/IFR flight conditions are possible at both CHS and SAV terminals into late Saturday morning due to showers and low clouds associated with a departing low pressure system. VFR conditions will then prevail Saturday afternoon through Monday. Flight restrictions are possible at both terminals Tuesday due to showers/thunderstorms along a passing cold front.

MARINE. The strong wedge remains entrenched over the waters this morning but with falling surface pressures and decreasing moisture gradients, we have begun to see a gradually decreasing trend in wind speeds since 06Z. The coastal trough will likely gradually advance toward the beaches through midday, then a wave of low pressure at the surface will ripple along the warm front somewhere along or near the coastal counties late. Wind directions with this scenario will be tricky but overall a decrease in speeds will be noticeable today along with the gradually veering directions. Seas will be slower to subside but it looks like SCAs will come down over near shore waters this afternoon. A big uncertainty will be the potential for stratus build-down at some point ahead of the warm front later today and this could trap some fog over the cooler waters as dew points climb into the lower 60s. We added some patchy fog later today and this evening but conditions for true sea fog develop appear hindered by the complex mesoscale features and rapidly veering winds this evening.

Tonight: Winds will be lighter and locally variable this evening before the flow becomes southwest ahead of a cold front. Late tonight, some tstms are possible as the front races offshore and the risk for any fog will decrease. An SCA mainly for seas will continue over outer GA waters.

Saturday through Wednesday: Sfc low pressure will track north and away from the area Saturday with high pressure building across coastal waters through the weekend and into early next week. A brief surge of colder air associated with a trailing mid-lvl trough could produce a period of Small Craft Advisory level winds across nearshore South Carolina waters Saturday afternoon into the evening before the pressure gradient becomes considerably weaker Saturday night. Further offshore, a Small Craft Advisory will be ongoing across offshore Georgia waters into daybreak Sunday morning. Winds/seas are then expected to decrease/subside across all waters Sunday and Monday with high pressure dominating the pattern. A cold front will shift across all coastal waters Tuesday, producing another round of cold air advection across the region and the potential for Small Craft Advisories Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Latest tide forecast indicates minor coastal flooding along the SC coast this morning while tides along the northern GA coast should remain just low enough to keep the risk of flooding pretty low. We have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the morning hours along the SC coast.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for SCZ048>050. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ352- 354. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for AMZ374.

NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . DPB AVIATION . DPB MARINE . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 24 mi56 min NNE 8 G 11 51°F 56°F1019.3 hPa
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 45 mi72 min NNE 16 G 18 60°F 62°F7 ft1017.1 hPa (-1.5)59°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA11 mi2.1 hrsNNE 810.00 miLight Rain50°F46°F85%1018.6 hPa
Wright Army Airfield (Fort Stewart)/Midcoast Regional Airport, GA13 mi2.1 hrsNNE 810.00 miLight Rain48°F46°F94%1018.9 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA15 mi69 minN 86.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist48°F46°F93%1019.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSVN

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW6SW7------S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Highway bridge, Ogeechee River, Georgia
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Highway bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:52 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:33 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:47 AM EST     1.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:21 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:29 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.90.80.60.40.1-0-00.10.50.91.21.21.210.80.60.30.1000.30.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Fort McAllister, Ogeechee River, Georgia
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Fort McAllister
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:43 AM EST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:32 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:16 AM EST     8.20 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:20 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:21 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:40 PM EST     6.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.12.51-0.1-0.30.835.57.38.287.15.742.30.900.31.73.75.56.66.76.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.