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Marine Weather and Tides Flemington, GA Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:53AM

Sunset 6:24PM

Saturday February 27, 2021 6:46 AM EST (11:46 UTC)

Moonrise 6:56PM

Moonset 7:25AM

Illumination 99%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flemington, GA

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Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 271138 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 638 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. Atlantic high pressure will build across the region today and will prevail through the rest of the weekend. A cold front will then move through Monday which will likely be followed closely by a storm system into mid week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 625 AM: IR satellite indicated a few small patches of fog over portions of Berkeley Co. and just north of Bulls Bay. The forecast will continue to feature patchy fog along and north I-26. Otherwise, the day should begin with passing thin cirrus.

As of 4 AM: Near term guidance shows the center of a 590 dm H5 ridge will remain centered over Cuba, with rising heights across the Southeast U.S. At the sfc, high pressure should remain over the western Atlantic as a broad trough remains over the Coastal Plain. This pattern is expected to support return flow across the CWA through the day, resulting in rising llvl thicknesses. High resolution guidance, suggests that a sea breeze will push inland late this afternoon, especially along the SC coast. The combination of strong insolation, very mild llvl thicknesses, and late onset of the sea breeze should support high temperatures around 15 degrees above normal. Highs forecast to range from the mid 80s across SE GA to the low 80s across the SC Lowcountry. See Climate section below for record high temperatures for each climate site. Forecast soundings indicate a strong inversion between H850-750, with a weaker inversion around H925. The stable thermal profile should support a dry forecast.

Tonight: The CWA will remain between sfc high pressure over the Atlantic and a broad sfc trough over the Fall Line of SC/GA. This pattern should support light south winds across the forecast area through the night. Sfc dewpoints are forecast to warm well into the 60 across the CWA. The sfc dewpoints may exceed the temperature of the nearshore waters by 2 to 5 degrees. Forecast soundings indicate that a significant inversion will remain between H950-900 across the area. Conditions below the inversion are expected to become saturated around midnight, deepening through the rest of tonight. Sfc condensation pressure deficits lower to around zero this evening, spreading inland through the night. Fog and low ceiling will become widespread tonight, with dense fog expected near the coast. Low temperatures in the low 60s will be common.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Moderate to high confidence through Monday. Decent model agreement that high pressure will prevail Sunday before starting to weaken Sunday night as a cold front approaches. Slightly less confidence starting Monday, mainly regarding temperatures and rain chances, as the front pushes through. There remains some uncertainty regarding how warm it gets Monday ahead of the front and then how much rain chances lower Monday night as there could be some leftover moisture and shortwave energy to keep showers going, at least in GA. Rain amounts through the period should only be about a quarter of an inch at most. Instability still looks to remain very limited so the risk we continue to leave out any mention of thunderstorms. By Tuesday a much cooler airmass should move into the area with high pressure builds to the north. The main forecast question is how much moisture and upper forcing are still around to keep the showers going. At this time highest it is more likely that areas near and north of Charleston will stay dry with the best chance of showers farther south near the Altamaha River in GA.

The other forecast issue will be sea fog which will likely develop over the cool Atlantic waters and move onshore into Monday until the cold front passes. This could lead to reduced visibilities enough to warrant Dense Fog Advisories.

We continue to lean toward the warmer model guidance based on recent trends and the abnormally warm pattern which is typically not handled well by MOS guidance. Still think record highs are possible Sun (mainly at KCHS/KSAV) and although lows Sunday night could be near records, temperatures later in the day should cool enough to prevent daily record high mins.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Low confidence this period due to lower model agreement but we leaned toward the wetter 00Z ECMWF/WPC guidance which have the highest rain chances through Wednesday with drier high pressure building in thereafter. Another storm system could impact the area late in the week but there is little agreement on timing/impacts. At this time confidence is too low to mention any thunder given the limited instability expected but if there are any storms the best chances should be on Wednesday.

Temperatures will likely be near to above normal through at least Thursday night before possibly dropping below normal late week.

AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Terminals should remain between high pressure over the Atlantic and broad low pressure inland. Winds should favor SW direction today, shifting to from the S this evening. The challenge this evening will be the timing and placement of fog, possibly sourced from the nearshore waters. I will indicate MVFR fog at both terminals late tonight. Ceilings are forecast to lower significantly during the pre-dawn hours, the TAFs will feature IFR ceilings and vis by 11Z Sunday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible in late night/early morning fog and stratus through Sunday night and due to low clouds/showers on Monday, possibly into Monday night especially at KSAV. Additional restrictions from low clouds and more showers then a good possibility by Tuesday night and into Wednesday as another storm system impacts the area. VFR should then return by Thursday.

MARINE. The primary concern across the marine zones will be the timing and placement of sea fog, developing late today and becoming widespread tonight. Patchy fog is forecast to develop over the GA waters late this afternoon/evening. Sfc dewpoints are forecast to warm well into the 60 across the marine waters tonight. The sfc dewpoints may exceed the temperature of the nearshore waters by 2 to 5 degrees. Forecast soundings indicate that a significant inversion will remain between H950-900 across the area. Conditions below the inversion are expected to become saturated around midnight, deepening through the rest of tonight. Widespread dense fog is expected across the nearshore waters, including the CHS Harbor, tonight. Otherwise, winds today and tonight will remain from the south around 10 kts. Seas are forecast to range between 2-4 ft.

Sunday through Thursday: Moderate to high confidence that conditions will mostly remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Monday but can't rule out low-end Advisories for at least the offshore waters starting Sunday night. A better chance for more widespread SCA conditions are then expected late Monday night into Wednesday as high pressure builds from the north initially and then a storm system moves through.

Otherwise, sea fog could impact mostly the nearshore waters into Monday or Monday night until a cold front moves through.

CLIMATE. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

SATURDAY 2/27 KCHS 84 1962 KSAV 85 2011 & 1997 KCXM 83 1962

SUNDAY 2/28

KCHS 86 1962 KSAV 86 1962 KCXM 82 1944

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . None.



NEAR TERM . NED SHORT TERM . RJB LONG TERM . RJB AVIATION . NED/RJB MARINE . NED/RJB CLIMATE .

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA	31 mi	47 min	Calm G 0	58°F	55°F		1022.3 hPa (+0.6)
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA	38 mi	47 min	S 1.9	56°F			1021 hPa (+0.0)	55°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA	50 mi	57 min	S 3.9 G 3.9	62°F	60°F	2 ft	1021.3 hPa (-0.0)	62°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Wright Army Airfield (Fort Stewart)/Midcoast Regional Airport, GA	7 mi	51 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	52°F	51°F	98%	1021.6 hPa
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA	18 mi	51 min	SW 3	10.00 mi	Fair	60°F	56°F	87%	1021.3 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA	19 mi	54 min	N 0	6.00 mi	Shallow Fog	55°F	53°F	93%	1021.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLHW

Wind History from LHW (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Highway bridge, Ogeechee River, Georgia

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Tide / Current Tables for Belfast, Belfast River, Georgia

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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