LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 417 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

On Sunday night, the ridge pattern over the eastern CONUS will be dampening as a shortwave moves northeastward through the Midwest towards the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, a low pressure system is anticipated to be centered off the north Atlantic coast.
Moisture return ahead of the shortwave is likely to overcome any relatively drier air remaining over east Georgia between the ridge and on the western side of the low pressure system. Because of this, dewpoints will be in the mid 70s across the majority of the area on Monday. Precipitable water values will also be high, ranging from 1.8 to 2.2 inches. As the shortwave moves north of Georgia overnight into Monday, it will provide forcing for showers and thunderstorms, which will be enhanced by diurnal instability.
Given the combination of these factors, PoPs are forecast to be likely to categorical across the majority of the forecast area on Monday afternoon, with the highest chances in northwest Georgia.
Stronger storms that develop will have the potential to produce heavy rain, which will lead to localized flash flooding concerns, especially given saturated soils from previous rainfall. Broken to overcast cloud coverage on Monday is expected to keep high temperatures limited to the mid to upper 80s.

By Tuesday morning, the shortwave will move out of the region as a broad ridge sets up over the western CONUS. As the ridge slowly moves eastward through the week, much of the Southeast will be underneath a northwesterly flow regime on the "dirty" side of the ridge. While diurnally driven convection is expected to continue each day from Tuesday through the end of the period, the northwesterly flow regime could favor increased shear and chances for organized thunderstorms, and will thus need to be monitored for potential MCS development and associated severe weather threat on these days. Large scale moisture levels are forecast to gradually decrease starting Tuesday into mid-week. At this time, more scattered cloud cover will allow high temperatures to return to the low to mid 90s by the end of the period.

King



AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

An MVFR cloud deck extending from AHN to the eastern fringes of metro Atlanta will likely bring FEW/SCT clouds ~3000 ft at ATL until ~14z. VFR conditions (albeit low-VFR at times) are generally expected from ~14z through early evening. The potential for TSRA is covered by a PROB30 from 21z to 03z at ATL, as hi-res models suggest a delayed started to convection due to dense mid-/upper- level cloud cover. Winds will be NE to E at 3-8 kts. Looking ahead to tomorrow morning, MVFR cigs appear likely.

//ATL Confidence
12Z Update
Medium confidence on timing/location of afternoon/evening TSRA.
High confidence on all other elements.

Martin



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 71 86 71 85 / 20 30 40 80 Atlanta 72 83 71 87 / 20 60 50 80 Blairsville 67 78 66 80 / 30 60 60 90 Cartersville 72 83 70 87 / 20 60 60 90 Columbus 74 87 73 89 / 40 70 40 90 Gainesville 71 83 71 84 / 20 50 50 80 Macon 73 86 72 88 / 20 50 30 70 Rome 72 82 71 86 / 20 70 70 90 Peachtree City 71 83 71 87 / 30 60 50 80 Vidalia 74 87 72 88 / 20 40 10 50

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.