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FXUS62 KFFC 291149 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 649 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023


New 12Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Much of the Southeast remains under northwesterly upper level flow ahead of an advancing ridge. A surface boundary is advancing southward through Georgia, ushering in a reinforcing shot of cold and dry continental air. Low temperatures this morning will range from the upper teens in the higher elevations of far north Georgia to the upper 20s in south-central Georgia. In spite of limited low- level moisture, patchy frost is anticipated this morning with below freezing temperatures and light winds. A broad surface high will continue to slowly move eastward towards the forecast area this afternoon, which will lead to mostly clear skies and benign weather conditions throughout the day. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 50s across north and central Georgia this afternoon. Considering the very dry airmass (with precipitable water values of < 0.15") and high pressure settling into the area, I once again elected to run on the low end of guidance on dewpoints, blending in CONSShort, NBM10, and HRRR solutions. Relative humidity values will drop to 20-30% for several hours this afternoon and early evening. Moreover, breezy winds yesterday have helped dry 10 hour fuels. As a result, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued across the forecast area and will remain in effect until 7 PM EST.

Tonight into Thursday morning the ridge axis will move through the forecast area and the surface high will be shunted off the Carolina Coast. The upper level flow will become southwesterly on the back side of the ridge and ahead of a southern stream shortwave digging into northwest Mexico. High clouds will begin to increase in coverage across Georgia during the overnight hours, leading to a relatively warmer night than tonight. Thursday morning lows are forecast to be in the upper 20s to low 30s across the area. Low Low- level flow will meanwhile gain a southerly component on the back side of the high, which will lead to some modest low-level moisture return. High temperatures will climb into the low 60s on Thursday afternoon. With increasing dewpoints, minimum RH values are forecast to be 30-35% on Thursday afternoon. However, trends will need to be monitored in case RH values underachieve current guidance and another Fire Danger Statement is needed.

King

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

A 500 mb shortwave trough will traverse the MS and OH River Valleys on Friday with a surface low in tow. Warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will be drawn northward into the low pressure system with PWAT surging to 1.0" to 1.5" -- the upper-end of climatology. A large-scale upper-level trough will gradually shift from over the Four Corners to over the southern Great Plains Saturday through Sunday, maintaining the southerly mid- and upper- level flow out of the GoM over the Southeast. The result will be waves of widespread moderate to heavy rain showers Friday through the weekend -- the timing of which driven largely by disturbances in the mid- and upper-level flow and attendant moisture advection.
A lack of well-defined forcing/dynamics suggests that the potential for strong to severe storms is low, but do continue to advertise a slight chance for thunderstorms across portions of the CWA on Friday and Saturday given the potential for at least some elevated instability to advect inland from the GoM.

A note on Friday temperatures: temps will be in the mid-30s on early Friday morning along the ridgeline of the northeast GA mountains, and with some forecast soundings suggesting a dry layer below ~800 mb that could support evaporative cooling, cannot rule out some ice pellets mixing in with rain showers. Impacts would be essentially nil. The rest of the day will be quite raw and rainy for northeast GA (from the northeastern Atlanta metro area to the mountains) with highs in the low to mid-50s.

The most recent runs of the GEFS and EPS show less agreement concerning QPF for this multi-day rain event. The GFS maintains the axis of greatest rainfall across central GA with a maximum swath (characterized by 3.0" to nearly 4.0") stretching from Columbus to Macon, while the EPS has shifted the axis of greatest rainfall noticeably southward over southern GA with only the southern fringes of the CWA exceeding 2.0". While our current QPF depicts lesser rainfall totals than the previous two forecast packages (widespread 2.0" to 2.75" with isolated 3.0" to 3.5") the rounds of heavy rainfall anticipated suggest the potential for localized flooding and rises on rivers, creeks, and streams. HEFS (Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting System) guidance continues to show a ~15% to ~35% chance for several river gages (mostly across central GA) to reach minor flood stage before the end of the long term period.

Rain showers are expected to come to an end from west to east over the course of Monday evening through early Tuesday morning as the aforementioned upper-level trough finally shifts east of the Southeast.

Martin

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR conditions will continue through this TAF cycle with high clouds beginning to increase in coverage by mid afternoon and into tonight. Winds will be primarily NW at 5-8 kts through much of the day, shifting to SW and diminishing to 5 kts or less by 01-02Z tonight. As high pressure moves into the area early Thursday morning, winds are expected to become light and variable.

//ATL Confidence
12Z Update
High confidence on all elements.

King

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 30 60 39 58 / 0 0 50 90 Atlanta 33 60 43 62 / 0 0 60 90 Blairsville 27 57 37 54 / 0 0 60 90 Cartersville 29 61 42 61 / 0 0 70 90 Columbus 31 61 44 68 / 0 0 50 80 Gainesville 34 59 40 54 / 0 0 60 90 Macon 30 61 42 67 / 0 0 30 70 Rome 28 62 43 61 / 0 0 80 90 Peachtree City 28 60 41 64 / 0 0 60 90 Vidalia 32 61 45 73 / 0 0 10 60

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Buffalo River entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:54 AM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:27 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:39 AM EST     9.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:36 PM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:04 PM EST     7.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Buffalo River entrance, Turtle River, Georgia, Tide feet

Burnt Fort
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Wed -- 01:25 AM EST     3.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:19 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:27 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:53 PM EST     3.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:04 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Burnt Fort, Satilla River, Georgia, Tide feet

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