Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 4:01 PM   Moonset 3:12 AM

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FXUS62 KFFC 191838 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 238 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024


Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Primary concern in the short term heavy rain and flash flooding the rest of the afternoon and early evening over SE most counties.

Rainfall rates with intense and slow-moving convection somewhat surprising with 2-3 inch per hour rates and amounts up to 5 inches observed so far. Thankfully soil this time of year and lack of recent heavy rain has mitigated runoff somewhat, but still more than enough to produce some isolated flash flooding. PW values this morning were around 1.4 inches but model and observational analyses show values around 1.6 inches over SE counties which is near 95th to 99th percentile for this time of year.

This cluster of storms will continue to push SE out of the area by 00Z with some lingering showers over north GA where terrain helped induce isolated convection.

Thankfully, tonight and Monday should be much quieter with only some isolated showers due to upslope in the NE Georgia mountains Monday afternoon.

SNELSON

LONG TERM
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Recent global model guidance continues to indicate no significant forecast concerns or weather impacts expected in the long term period. Storms Thursday-Saturday may be strong to marginally severe depending on strength of vertical wind shear and sfc forcing.

Temps will continue to warm to well above normal values (+5 to 10 deg anomalies) with max temps near or even above 90F possible Tuesday through Saturday. Experimental NWS HeatRisk values are forecast to be in the Minor category with a few spots in Moderate. See www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/ for more info and the latest forecasts.

No tropical storm formation expected through Saturday. Previous long term discussion follows.

SNELSON

Previous Long Term Discussion...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

On Monday night, the positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward into the Atlantic as an upper ridge sets up over the eastern CONUS. By the beginning of the long term period, this ridge will extend from the north- central Gulf into New England. A weak shortwave will traverse the flow on the northwest side of the ridge. However, any sensible impacts from this disturbance will stay well to the north of the forecast area. Surface high pressure associated with the ridge and centered to the northeast of the forecast area will also largely serve to inhibit precipitation from Monday night into Tuesday.
After low temperatures start the morning on Tuesday in the upper 50s to low 60s, a warming trend can be expected through midweek.
Highs are forecast to climb into mainly the mid 80s on Tuesday afternoon, and then into the upper 80s on Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will be locally cooler in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia. High temperatures through the remainder of the long term period will range from the mid 80s in north Georgia to the low 90s in south-central Georgia each afternoon.

A deepening upper low will move from the northern Plains towards the Great Lakes region on Wednesday, at which time the axis of the ridge will clear Georgia to the east. Southwesterly upper flow between the low and the ridge will enter north Georgia, leading to increasing atmospheric moisture. As the low pressure system becomes occluded and moves into southeast Canada, a cold front will advance slowly southward into the Tennessee Valley region by Wednesday night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to spread into far north Georgia by early Thursday morning. As the low continues to move away to the northeast, the frontal boundary will become more elongated from west to east, and its southward advance will begin to slow. As such, PoPs on Thursday will mostly be confined to north Georgia, with chance PoPs to the north of I-20 and progressively lower chances to the south. By Friday morning, the frontal boundary is forecast to stall near the Georgia/Tennessee state line. Model guidance appears to be coming into better agreement on a shortwave traversing the westerlies and from the Lower Mississippi River Valley across the Southeast on Friday. This setup would bring more numerous showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area on Friday, especially the wave overruns the stalled frontal boundary, providing a focus for additional convection.King

King

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

MVFR low clouds and cumulus as well as SHRA/TSRA activity continues to burn off and push south as drier air moves in from the north.
Expect VFR conditions at all airports by 21Z. Could be some redevelopment of near IFR stratus after 09Z. Confidence is low but do have SCT010 in most TAFs to indicate potential. Sfc winds will remain light NE overnight then E 5-8kts after 15Z Mon.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
Low confidence on IFR stratus development after 09Z.
High confidence on all other elements.

SNELSON



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 59 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 62 83 63 85 / 10 0 0 0 Blairsville 57 79 58 81 / 20 20 10 10 Cartersville 59 85 60 87 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 64 84 63 87 / 10 0 0 0 Gainesville 60 82 62 84 / 10 10 0 0 Macon 62 83 61 86 / 10 0 0 0 Rome 62 85 61 87 / 10 0 0 0 Peachtree City 59 83 59 86 / 10 0 0 0 Vidalia 64 83 62 85 / 30 0 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for GAZ085-086-097-098- 109>113.

Buffalo River entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:56 AM EDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:22 AM EDT     7.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:01 PM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:00 PM EDT     8.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Buffalo River entrance, Turtle River, Georgia, Tide feet

Burnt Fort
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:27 AM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:23 AM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:33 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:01 PM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Burnt Fort, Satilla River, Georgia, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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Robins AFB, GA,