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Marine Weather and Tides Thunderbolt, GA Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:02AM

Sunset 7:49PM

Tuesday April 7, 2020 9:49 PM EDT (01:49 UTC)

Moonrise 6:32PM

Moonset 6:02AM

Illumination 100%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thunderbolt, GA

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Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 072306 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 706 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A series of disturbances will pass overhead through Wednesday. A cold front will move through Thursday night, followed by high pressure into Saturday. A significant storm system could impact the area during the first part of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. There will remain at least a few light showers across Georgia this evening with the passage of a short wave, but little to no measurable rainfall will occur. Otherwise, mostly cloudy to cloudy skies prior to midnight will give way to little less cloud cover overnight. Guidance continues to give mixed results regarding any late night showers and possible isolated t-storms late, so we left as is for now, with just a slight chance far interior georgia after 5 am. Given the extensive cloudiness early on we did slow down the hourly temp decrease. We will be close to record high mins for both April 7 and 8 at our climate sites (See CLIMATE section below).

Previous discussion . Moisture will steadily increase from the west this evening and overnight. PWATs will range from 1.5 to 1.7" by daybreak Wednesday. Downslope flow today has stifled convective development thus far, however a potent shortwave moving in late this afternoon should trigger at least isolated showers and tstms across the area. A lull in precipitation is anticipated later this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. However, another upper shortwave will move into southeast GA late tonight, potentially triggering some convection across inland areas. We kept a mention of thunderstorms late tonight due to some elevated instability showing up in model guidance. Low temps will be in the middle 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/. Wednesday: A generally flat upper level ridge axis from the Gulf of Mexico into the Mississippi Valley at the start of the period will gradually weaken. Weak upper level disturbances in the west to northwest flow aloft combined with afternoon CAPE values from 600 to 1200 J/KG could result in widely scattered to scattered showers and some thunderstorms, especially in the south where deeper moisture and the higher instability should exist. The lack of a low level focus is a limiting factor that will keep rain chances fairly low. With afternoon DCAPE values from 600 to 800 J/KG, if thunderstorms become organized, they could become strong with gusty winds. The rain chances should end during the evening with the loss of heating. Despite abundant high level clouds, downslope flow and 850 millibar temperatures near 15 degrees Celsius support high temperatures in the mid 80s away from the coast.

Thursday: Downslope west to northwest flow throughout much of the lower part of the atmosphere will continue. Models indicating large scale sinking and this combined with nothing more than weak low level convergence support a rain free and hot forecast. With afternoon 850 millibar temperatures near 16 degrees Celsius, compressional heating ahead of the front and little if any cloud cover, expect high temperatures on Thursday to be at least several degrees warmer than those of Wednesday. Currently am forecasting near record highs near 90 away from the coast, but with the offshore winds expected for just about the entire day, it will be quite warm near the beaches too. A mainly dry but significant front moves through the area Thursday night. A few showers will be possible along the front in the far south late.

Friday: In response to a significant upper level disturbance moving into the northwest Atlantic ocean, much cooler and drier air will spread into the area. It will be cloudy for the morning with clearing skies expected in the afternoon as much drier air moves in. Despite downslope northwesterly low level winds, highs should only range from near 70 in the north to the lower 70s in the south, a solid 20 degrees cooler than the highs on Thursday for most areas. There will be a slight chance for showers in the south early in the day near the cold front.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. The 00Z models finally started to come into some alignment for the long term. High pressure to our northwest should bring dry conditions and cooler temperatures Friday night into Saturday. Saturday night into Sunday a strengthening storm system moves from the Gulf Coast to the Southeastern U.S. Models all seem to key on a large area of heavy rainfall, but they disagree on what part of the Southeast gets it and when. Impacts for our area could range anywhere from some light rain to possibly several inches of rain. Given the wide variation, we went with high end chance POPs with the anticipation more changes will be needed.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. KCHS: VFR with the 00Z TAF set. Chances of convection Wednesday afternoon is too low to consider including at this time.

KSAV: VFR through the night. Isolated convection possible Wednesday morning, but probability is way too low to warrant a mention. Instead there is a chance for MVFR stratocumulus overspreading KSAV from around 12-17Z. We might need to include mention SHRA/TSRA in later TAFs for Wednesday afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Other than perhaps some MVFR cigs behind the cold front later Thursday night into early Friday, VFR conditions are expected through Saturday.

MARINE. Tonight: The gradient will remain somewhat packed between high pressure to the southeast and a lee side trough to the northwest. That along with some of the 25-30 kt winds in the lower levels mixing down we generate SW winds as high as 15 kt most waters, but up to 15-20 kt on the AMZ350 waters. With still some swell energy over the Atlantic, significant wave heights will average 2-4 ft throughout.

Wednesday through Saturday: An area of low pressure off of the middle Atlantic coast will result in generally southwest winds of 10 to 20 knots through Thursday. A cold front will move through Thursday night resulting in the winds shifting to the northwest for Friday and then light northeast winds will become east to southeast Saturday. Seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected into Friday and then tranquil conditions with seas of 1 to 3 feet are expected later Friday into Saturday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Latest tidal trends support maintaining the Coastal Flood Advisory for the entire coast with the high tide around 830-930 pm this evening.

Higher than normal tides are expected most of this week due to astronomical influences from the upcoming full moon and perigee. Additionally, winds are forecast to be onshore at times with ocean swell, which would further elevate the tides. As a result, minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding is expected with each high tide through Thursday. Coastal Flood Advisories will be needed. By Friday, offshore winds should lessen the chance of coastal flooding.

CLIMATE. Record high minimum temperatures for April 7th: CXM . 66 degrees last set in 1999 (low so far 67 degrees)

Record high minimum temperatures for April 8th: CHS . 66 degrees last set in 1999 SAV . 70 degrees set in 1882 CXM . 68 degrees last set in 1991

Record high temperatures for Thursday April 9th: CHS . 90 degrees set in 2011 SAV . 91 degrees set in 2011 Downtown Charleston . 89 degrees last set in 2001

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for GAZ117- 119-139-141. SC . Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ048>051. MARINE . None.

NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . MTE LONG TERM . AVIATION . MARINE . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . CLIMATE .

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA	7 mi	49 min	WSW 6 G 8	76°F	68°F		1015.1 hPa (-0.3)
41033	37 mi	41 min	SW 14 G 19	70°F	68°F		1013.6 hPa
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA	45 mi	59 min	SSW 7.8 G 9.7	69°F	68°F	2 ft	1015.3 hPa (+0.0)	67°F
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA	45 mi	49 min	SSW 2.9	72°F			1016 hPa (+0.0)	66°F
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC	47 mi	64 min	Calm	73°F			1014 hPa	67°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA	6 mi	53 min	WSW 7	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	76°F	62°F	63%	1014.5 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA	11 mi	56 min	WSW 8	10.00 mi	Overcast	77°F	60°F	56%	1014.9 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC	22 mi	54 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	72°F	66°F	83%	1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSVN

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Thunderbolt, Wilmington River, Georgia

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Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (21,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC

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