Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garden City, GA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KCLX radar shows the sea breeze has cleared all but Jenkins County, GA, which is should do by 930 PM. Surface observations show the boundary layer is starting to decouple as the sea breeze begins to break down. The forecast is in good shape and did not require any major updates.

Bermuda high pressure centered well offshore will maintain its influence on the region tonight while a strong deep-layered anticyclone remains centered just north of the Bahamas. Similar to the past several nights, the boundary layer looks to decouple by mid-late evening once the inland moving sea breeze circulation collapses. High clouds will continue to traverse the area through the night, but mostly clear to partly cloudy skies should prevail. Lows will range from the upper 50s inland to the lower-mid 60s across the coastal corridor with upper 60s/near 70 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
Tuesday: Ridging aloft slowly relaxes its grip on the area as a sheared out short wave approaches from the west late day. At the surface, the local communities will lie underneath the western portions of extensive Atlantic high pressure. Further inland will be the formation of the typical lee side trough, as that feature will be the main focus for any convection that develops with the approach of the aforementioned short wave.
There might also be some potential for a few pop-up showers on the sea breeze, but with weak forcing for ascent, we held onto a rain free forecast. Max temperatures were derived from a combination of the MOS, NBM, and low level thickness forecast, equating to the mid and upper 80s away from the cooler coast.

Tuesday Night: A low end chance of some showers or t-storms moving in with the sheared out short wave aloft, but coverage will be limited to just 20% PoPs given poor forcing and the onset of the nocturnal environment. Late night there are enough signs of some fog and stratus with light/calm winds, favorable condensation pressure deficits and FSI values. Lows will only drop to the dew points down in the lower and middle 60s.

Wednesday through Thursday: There could be a little better chance of convection that we have seen in quite awhile, as a cold front looks to dip into at least the northern part of the forecast region. Since the front looks to be aligned parallel to the flow aloft, it remains to be seen how far the front is able to get, and thus what the amount of coverage will actually be.
Wednesday potentially looks to be the day with the greatest chance given deep shear of 30 kt or so, MUCAPE ~2500 J/kg, and even some mid level perturbations, we do show chance-likely PoPs for the afternoon. Thursday has less shear and MUCAPE, and little in the way of short wave energy. But with the proximity of the cold front and the sea breeze, scattered PoPs can be expected. Highs Wednesday will be in the mid and upper 80s away from the coast, with lower and middle 80s Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Thursday night into Friday the front will retreat north, slightly decreasing rain chances. Also, the upper ridge will break down and rippling weak shortwaves could bring a few showers/thunderstorms Saturday. A cold front could then push through the area Sunday, bringing additional rain chances. Above normal temperatures will persist through Saturday before dropping to near normal early next week behind the front.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
22/06z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR conditions through Tuesday early overnight.
Some low stratus and/or fog may develop across the region later overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning...beyond the current TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: There could be some low stratus and/or fog at the terminals late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, and maybe a SHRA or TSRA Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Gusty winds are possible Tuesday, Friday, and Saturday afternoon at all terminals with the passage of the sea breeze.

MARINE
Tonight: High pressure in the Atlantic will maintain southerly winds around 10 kt. Seas will be 2-3 ft within 20 nm and 3-4 ft for the GA waters beyond 20 nm.

Tuesday through Saturday night: Atlantic high pressure will prevail across the local waters into early Wednesday, then gives way to a cold front that approaches from the north, and lingers nearby into Thursday. The front either dissipates or lifts back north as a warm front, as Atlantic high pressure re-establishes itself across the area Friday into Saturday. Another cold front looks to approach late Saturday night. Even though there will be some enhancement of the sea breeze across the nearshore waters and in Charleston Harbor Tuesday, Friday, and Saturday afternoon, winds and seas will stay well below any advisory thresholds through the period. Mariners do need to be alert for some potential t-storm activity Wednesday through Thursday, and again Saturday and Saturday night.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.