Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Whitemarsh Island, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:24PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 2:56 AM EDT (06:56 UTC) Moonrise 9:34AMMoonset 11:57PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 1248 Am Edt Wed May 27 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am edt early this morning...
Rest of tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 1248 Am Edt Wed May 27 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Weak low pressure is expected to track over or near the area through Wednesday. Unsettled weather should prevail until a cold front moves through the region early next week. High pressure will bring drier conditions and cooler temperatures early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whitemarsh Island, GA
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location: 32.08, -81.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 270535 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 135 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak low pressure is expected to track over or near the area tonight through Wednesday. Unsettled weather should prevail until a cold front moves through the region early next week. High pressure will bring drier conditions and cooler temperatures early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Deep convection is found out over the Gulf Stream, with indications that this will become the parent low that redevelops. However, a weaker and elongated low is just offshore the northeast Florida and southeast Georgia coasts that heads toward the coasts of our area closer to daybreak. We're starting to see a little training of cells across the Charleston tri- county, but thankfully tides are on their way out.

We adjusted the PoP scheme to account for what appears to be less coverage south until late and to adjust for latest trends north. We also delayed the onset of any t-storms until after 4 am given minimal instability. The SPC Supercell Composite does show higher values offshore the Florida/Georgia border which is progged to head closer to the coast of our area by daybreak. We'll carefully monitor trends to see if any waterspouts are able to push onshore or an isolated tornado develops around daybreak.

Temps won't change more than another 1-2F through the rest of the night.

Previous discussion . The forecast philosophy has changed little over the past few hours. The current forecast still looks on track. The latest high resolution guidance suggests the more favorable tornado parameters should stay just offshore of the middle South Carolina coast. While an isolated waterspout and/or tornado can not be completely ruled out, this really looks to be a very low-end event through sunrise.

27/01z surface analysis placed 1009 hPa low pressure just north of Cape Canaveral, FL near New Smyrna Beach and still appears to be attached to weak inverted trough that extends offshore of Georgia and the northeastern Florida coast. The low is forecast to meander to the north overnight, likely approaching the Georgia or southern South Carolina coast by daybreak Wednesday. It is still unclear whether this low will be primary cyclone or if secondary cyclogenesis will occur over the warmer Gulf Steam waters induced by shortwave energy passing through aloft ahead of the upper low to the west. Either way, an axis of strong H8 moisture convergence juxtaposed within a broad plume of >2" PWATS will likely support a large band of showers and even a few tstms north and northeast of the surface low tonight. This northwest- southeast oriented band will likely spread into the South Carolina coast as sunrise approaches.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/. Wednesday morning: While the models are still somewhat inconsistent regarding forecast details, the low pressure system off the coast of Florida Tuesday afternoon is expected to advance north somewhere near the GA/SC coastline Wednesday. Onshore moisture transport and a plume PWATs exceeding 2 inches suggest the potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially Wednesday morning. Rain amounts could exceed 2 to 3 inches in localized places, especially the Tri-Country area. Because the best moisture should advance into northern counties, the threat of heavy/prolonged rainfall seems less likely in our Georgia areas, but can not be ruled out. Here, most rainfall amounts should fall into the 0.50 to 1.50 inch range, but locally higher amounts are possible. While heavy rain is the biggest threat, enhanced instability, shear and helicity will exist near the surface low where isolated tornadoes, waterspouts and damaging winds cannot be ruled out. As a result, SC coastal areas remain in a marginal risk for severe weather Wednesday.

Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night: As the low and associated deepest moisture pushes north of the area, POPs generally decrease from S/SW to N/NE across the area Wednesday afternoon, and per diurnal stabilization the chance for showers could decrease to less than 15 percent across S/W counties Wednesday night. Also, light winds and enhanced boundary layer moisture could support fog in some areas later Wednesday night.

Thursday: The mid-levels will consist of a cutoff low centered over Arkansas in the morning and high pressure off the Mid- Atlantic Coast. As time progresses, the low will become absorbed into long- wave troughing over the MS Valley, while the high gradually moves further offshore. At the surface, high pressure will be located far off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile, troughing is expected to develop over the Southeastern U.S. Lots of moisture will be ushered into the region from the Gulf. PWATs are forecasted to approach 2", which is 2 standard deviations above normal per NAEFs. Models seem to indicate the highest probabilities of rainfall across the Charleston Tri-County and the far inland counties during the morning, which focus shifting in the afternoon away from the immediate coast and more towards the inland counties. We generally have the highest POPs in the likely category, but it's possible these are too low in some locations. POPs trend downward in the evening with the setting sun, only to ramp back up again late at night as synoptic forcing becomes more favorable. QPF varies significantly from model to model. We have a few tenths in the forecast, but higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms. There is decent instability in place during the day. GFS MLCAPEs could approach 1,500 J/kg. But DCAPEs aren't overly impressive and shear is lacking. The overall severe threat doesn't seem too great, with the main hazard being damaging winds in the strongest storms. Temperatures should be near normal.

Friday: Mid-level troughing over the MS Valley in the morning will shift eastward and slowly weaken. Meanwhile, ridging in the Atlantic will move further offshore. Surface high pressure will be in the Atlantic while troughing prevails over the Southeast. Abundant moisture will be in place across the region, with PWATs approaching 2". This is about 2 standard deviations above normal per NAEFs. Models seem to indicate the greatest potential of showers is west of I-95. Though, they split on the QPF. Hence, we went with a blend and this generated values high enough to warrant categorical POPs for most locations. Instability appears to be comparable to Thursday with shear slightly higher. The resulting overall severe threat again is low, with the main hazard being damaging winds in the strongest storms. Temperatures should be 1-2 degrees cooler than on Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Moderate confidence this period. The deep upper trough to the west is expected to weaken and shift east through the area late week with a cold front likely pushing through Saturday night into early Sunday. Deep moisture ahead of the front should keep rain chances at or above normal through Saturday night, although a few showers could even linger Sunday as the drier air lags a bit behind. By early Monday though cooler and much drier high pressure will build from the north. The risk of any severe storms looks low overall given generally weak deep layer shear with heavy rain and localized flooding possibly the bigger risk, especially after several days of rain leading to already wet ground. High temperatures should be near normal this weekend before dropping below normal while low temperatures likely stay above normal through Saturday night before falling back to near/below normal levels.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. KCHS: Flight restrictions are expected at the terminal through the entire 06Z TAF cycle, as low pressure impacts the area. IFR will continue most of the time into early afternoon, as the rain associated with the low becomes steadier and heavier. The rains will taper off in the afternoon as the low passes by, but considerable moisture will remain in place leading to MVFR conditions. Any chance of TSRA is too low to include at this time.

KSAV: Flight restrictions down in the IFR or MVFR category will prevail at the terminal into early afternoon, as low pressure passes by well offshore. A weaker secondary low could skirt the terminal this morning, and this will be watched for some convection. Then another chance of SHRA or TSRA will occur during the mid and late afternoon as destabilization of the atmosphere occurs. We'll address this concern in future TAF issuances.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers/thunderstorms are expected to bring periodic flight restrictions through the weekend.

MARINE. Tonight: Increased winds along the Charleston County where a pinched gradient is supporting winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Winds are lower farther to the south where the gradient is a bit less. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters outside of Charleston Harbor.

Wednesday: Small Craft Advisories will remain in place through late morning for AMZ350 and AMZ374 as low pressure tracks over or close to the waters. Then, a slackening gradient should support lighter winds/subsiding seas Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Thunderstorms could produce locally hazardous conditions, most likely Wednesday morning but perhaps persisting into Wednesday afternoon/night.

Thursday through the Weekend: The coastal waters will be situated between high pressure in the Atlantic and surface troughing inland. The resulting surface pressure gradient will lead to sustained winds no more than 10-15 kt through Saturday. A cold front is forecasted to move through the waters on Sunday. Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents for the Charleston County beaches, mainly for elevated onshore winds.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tides peaked at 7.05 ft MLLW in Charleston harbor, but are now on their way down as we are heading toward low tide around 6 am.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ352. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ350- 374. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ354.

NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . AVIATION . MARINE . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 7 mi56 min NE 11 G 16 76°F 78°F1013.4 hPa (-2.0)
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 45 mi71 min N 2.9 72°F 1014 hPa71°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 48 mi66 min ENE 14 G 18 75°F 77°F6 ft1011.6 hPa (-1.5)74°F
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 48 mi56 min NE 8.9 76°F 1012 hPa (-1.0)73°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA7 mi2 hrsNE 710.00 miOvercast74°F71°F92%1013.5 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA10 mi63 minNNE 910.00 miOvercast72°F71°F97%1013.4 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC20 mi61 minNE 14 G 199.00 miOvercast75°F71°F89%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSVN

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmE3E3E5E7E8E6E8E9E15
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSE5--NE6S8
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Tide / Current Tables for Fort Jackson, Savannah River, Georgia
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Fort Jackson
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:58 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:29 PM EDT     6.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:06 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.37.96.95.63.820.80.30.92.64.566.76.76.25.33.92.20.90.30.82.44.76.6

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:11 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:05 AM EDT     -2.07 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:35 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:59 AM EDT     1.64 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:43 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:25 PM EDT     -1.63 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:22 PM EDT     2.12 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.2-0.8-1.7-2.1-1.9-1.5-0.60.41.31.61.40.90.5-0.2-1.1-1.6-1.6-1.2-0.60.41.52.12

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.