Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 3:53 AM   Moonset 4:37 PM

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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 309 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
This afternoon - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds. Tonight - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. Mon - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.Mon night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wed night - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Thu - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 309 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - Atlantic high pressure will remain across the southeast u.s. Through much of next week. A cold front will move through the region late week bringing cooler conditions heading into next weekend.

FXUS62 KCHS 051927 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.S.
through much of next week. A cold front will move through the region late week bringing cooler conditions heading into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Today: The sea breeze has continued to slowly push inland this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms forming along the inland moving boundary. MLCAPE values have risen to around 1000 J/kg so far this afternoon and will likely increase to around 1500 J/kg by peak heating. Showers and thunderstorms will persist along the boundary and slowly propagate inland while advecting slowly towards the northeast. Expect coverage to be higher across the Charleston Tri- County thanks to weak upper level support in the form of a mid-level wave (as seen on water vapor this morning and afternoon). High temperatures will mostly be in the mid 80s across the region today.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms from this afternoon/ early evening will quickly come to an end overnight as daytime heating is lost and the weak mid-level wave exits the region to the east.
Expect low temperatures mostly in the mid 60s inland and near 70 degrees along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Larger scale ridging will be in place through the early part of the week with surface high pressure off the coast stretching across the Bermuda region. That said, convectively induced short-wave trough (originating with convection moving through the lower/middle Mississippi River Valley today) will advance through the Carolinas and mid Atlantic region Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Temperatures warming into the 80s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s will yield a decent amount of instability with MLCAPE values running 1000-1500 J/Kg Monday afternoon and minimal convective inhibition. Modest forcing with the wave in tandem with the inland pressing sea breeze should kick off scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area while additional showers and storms develop through central Georgia into the Midlands and potentially press into the region later in the day.
We will be maintaining 60 to 70 pops across inland areas Monday afternoon with convection slowly diminishing Monday night...but higher (categorical) pops may eventually be needed as convective evolution becomes more clear in the near term. Severe weather threat looks low overall although relatively slower moving storms and healthy PWAT values could present a heavy rain threat.

Short-wave trough moves off the Atlantic coast Monday night followed by low amplitude ridging building through the southeast CONUS for Tuesday and Wednesday. Quieter conditions anticipated, although some spottier shower/thunderstorms are possible across the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic Tuesday and again Wednesday, although it's tough to pin down pops/timing at this juncture. We have maintained some lower end precip chances across southeast South Carolina on Tuesday followed by dry weather on Wednesday as mid level warming/capping takes shape.

Otherwise, temperatures will continue to warm through midweek as upper level ridging builds through the region and convective coverage dwindles with highs in the middle to upper 80s Monday to the lower 90s by Wednesday. Heat index values remain well below any heat related headline criteria, but daytime high temperatures will be pushing record high readings by Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Unseasonably warm temperatures carry into Thursday with highs in the lower and potentially middle 90s. Again, heat index values will remain below headline criteria. But record high temperatures are a good possibility again Thursday.

Otherwise, low amplitude upper level ridging will hold through the beginning of the long term period before stronger short-wave energy dives out of the Midwest and down through the mid Atlantic/southeast CONUS late in the week into early part of the weekend. Associated surface cold front will swing down into the region...slated to move through the forecast area on Friday. This will be our next decent chance for showers and thunderstorms...possibly as early as Thursday afternoon from anything that gets going upstream, although the higher precip chances come Friday with the boundary moving through.
Quieter and cooler (70s to 80s) weather settles in for next weekend with possibly some showers lingering across the southern part of the forecast area Saturday in the vicinity of the boundary.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KJZI: An afternoon sea breeze has already moved inland, or past Charleston Executive and therefore VFR conditions are forecast this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms that do form this afternoon, will likely be along the sea breeze or inland of the terminal. Expect south/ southeast winds to persist this afternoon and be gusty at times. Overnight, VFR conditions are forecast. There is a slight chance of some patchy fog, but overall conditions don't look to conducive. The crossover temperature at KJZI is 68 degrees, with low temperatures not forecast to get below that. Monday, a leftover MCV will approach the terminals from the west. Current TAFs aren't advertising any mention of thunder, but this will likely need to be added in future TAF issuances.

KCHS/ KSAV: The sea breeze has currently just passed KSAV and is very close to KCHS. Convection has developed along the boundary and is forecast to continue through the afternoon hours. Both of these terminals are carrying a tempo for thunder this afternoon until the sea breeze moves far enough inland to bring an end to convection. Overnight, VFR conditions are forecast. There is a slight chance of some patchy fog, but overall conditions don't look to conducive. The crossover temperature at KCHS/ KSAV is 66 degrees, with low temperatures not forecast to get below that. Monday, a leftover MCV will approach the terminals from the west. Current TAFs aren't advertising any mention of thunder, but this will likely need to be added in future TAF issuances.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Overall conditions will remain VFR through the week although brief flight restrictions are possible at the terminals Monday and to a lesser extent Tuesday.

MARINE
High pressure will remain off the coast of New England through tonight, allowing south/ southeast winds across all waters around 10 to 15 kts. A slight uptick in the winds is forecast this afternoon in the Charleston Harbor and Savannah Entrance as the sea breeze circulation strengthens, but this will be transient. Wave heights 2 to 3 ft are forecast today and tonight.

Monday through Friday: Atlantic high pressure will maintain relatively benign conditions over the local marine waters.
Southeasterly winds in the morning will back slightly during the afternoon and evening hours each day as the sea breeze develops.
Winds will average 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Winds will increase toward the end of the week as a cold front approaches. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible as gusts approach 25 kt, but look marginal at this juncture.

CLIMATE
May 8: KCHS: 93/1986

May 9: KCHS: 95/1963 KSAV: 95/1962

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Turnbridge Landing
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Sun -- 01:19 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:01 AM EDT     7.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:39 PM EDT     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:26 PM EDT     8.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Turnbridge Landing, Salt Water Creek, New River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Savannah River Entrance
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Sun -- 01:23 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:01 AM EDT     2.00 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:59 AM EDT     -2.14 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:35 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:16 PM EDT     2.42 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:26 PM EDT     -2.39 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current, knots

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