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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 1220 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Rest of tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..Variable winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 1220 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail through Saturday. A cold front will cross the area on Sunday, followed by high pressure next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 080545 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1245 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will prevail through Saturday. A cold front will cross the area on Sunday, followed by high pressure next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
The forecast remains on track. The update will feature minor increases in sky cover and decreasing winds over land and water through dawn Friday.

The center of surface high pressure pulls further offshore, as mid and upper level ridging moves in aloft. With geostrophic winds no more than about 5 kt, winds across the vast majority of the region will remain calm. This equates to another cold night, although not quite as cold as last night. This is due to a little warmer thermal profile, and in many cases higher dew points. Simulated satellite images and time cross-sections do show scattered to broken cirrus moving in through the night in advance of a mid level impulse. But they generally look to remain thin enough to have little to no bearing on min temps.
Using a mix of the MOS and Hi-Res guidance we arrive at temps mainly in the lower and middle 30s far inland, upper 30s and lower 40s along the coastal counties, and mid 40s on the barrier islands. Maybe a little steam fog late.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Friday and Saturday: Surface high pressure will dominate through much of the period as upper level ridging gradually shifts east. Net moisture values will begin to increase Friday night and especially into Saturday as the low-level flow strengthens along the backside of the surface high as it shifts well offshore. An area of isolated to scattered showers will develop over the coastal waters closer to the west wall of the Gulf Stream Friday night and linger into Saturday as a steady stream of channeled vorticity passes through aloft along the divergent side of the upper ridge axis. While most of this activity should remain offshore, a more southerly sfc- boundary layer flow could allow a few of these to brush portions of the coast, mainly the lower and middle South Carolina coast. The cooler shelf waters may act as a stabilizing force, but there looks to be enough forcing aloft to help counteract this. Slight chance pops were highlighted for some coastal locations per going trends. Highs will peak into the mid-upper 60s Friday then warm into the mid 70s away from the immediate coast for Saturday. Lows Saturday morning will bottom out in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Saturday Night and Sunday: Fairly wet conditions are expected beginning late Saturday night and especially Sunday as a sharp upper trough digs across the eastern CONUS and an associated cold front sweeps east. Strong DCVA coupled with modest pre-frontal warm air advection will support a broad corridor of strong upper forcing with model cross sections showing the period of strongest lift occurring late morning/early afternoon across the interior, spreading east to the coast during the afternoon and evening.

The pre-frontal warm sector looks rather moist featuring surface dewpoints well into the 60s and plume of PWATs 1.60-1.7" juxtaposed with a 45-55 kt low-level jet. This should yield a fairly large frontal rain band. Widespread cloud cover and rain will tend mute warm sector instability (MLCAPE <500 J/kg and Lifted Indices of -1 to -3C). Despite this, forcing looks sufficient for a few tstms, some of which could be strong given the degree of forcing and 0-6km bulk shear noted--typical of a high shear/low CAPE (HSLC) scenario.
There remains some timing differences are noted in the various guidance, but there is sufficient evidence to support categorical pops Sunday with rain chances ending from west-east Sunday night as the front clears the coast and pushes farther offshore. The frontal structure looks to exhibit anafrontal characteristics, so rain will likely trail the passage of the surface cold front by several hours.

Breezy to windy conditions are likely in the warm sector with gusts 30-35 mph possible. Winds may be tempered a bit right along the immediate coast where southerly winds could advect some level of stability from off the cooler shelf waters. This is suggested by model soundings at Hilton Head (KHXD). A Lake Wind Advisory will likely be needed for Lake Moultrie, although winds speeds may be subdued somewhat over the open lake waters by the poor mixing profiles over chilly water temperatures. There is also a low-end chance that a Wind Advisory could be needed for some areas for winds 20-30 mph with gusts approaching 40 mph, especially over the coastal counties. This will need to be watched closely. Highs will warm into the lower to possibly mid 70s Sunday afternoon with lows dropping into the mid-upper 30s inland/lower-mid 40s coast Monday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure will extend across the region through the period.
Quiet weather with slightly below normal temperatures is expected.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV: VFR through 06Z Saturday. KJZI could see periods of ground fog around dawn this morning. The fog potential at KJZI will be highlighted with a TEMPO from 9-12Z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR into Saturday. Flight restrictions are possible in showers and maybe TSRA associated with a cold front late Saturday night into Sunday.

MARINE
Tonight: High pressure will pull further offshore as it elongates back into the southeastern part of the nation. The gradient is fairly lax, and with land breeze influences to form, W or W-SW winds at 10 or less will be common. Seas just 1-3 feet, highest on the outer Georgia waters.

Friday through Tuesday: Quiet through Friday night. Conditions will begin to deteriorate Saturday night with hazardous marine conditions prevailing Sunday into Sunday night as a cold front sweeps through the area. Southerly winds will reach 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt across all waters Sunday with frequent gusts possibly reaching gale force, mainly over eastern portions of the Georgia offshore marine zone where water temperatures are the warmest closer to the western wall of the Gulf Stream. Winds could be tempered some within 15 NM of the coast where water temperatures are the coolest and mixing will be somewhat muted.

Seas will peak Sunday evening, reaching 4-7 ft across the nearshore waters from Edisto Beach to Altamaha Sound out 20 NM with 6-9 ft over the Georgia offshore leg and the nearshore waters from South Santee-Edisto Beach out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisories will be needed during this time for all legs including Charleston Harbor with Gale Watches/Warnings also possible, mainly for the Georgia offshore waters and possibly for the far outer portions of the South Santee- Edisto Beach nearshore leg. Outside of the potential for gales, convective wind gusts in excess of 35 kt could also occur in a few tstms that will develop ahead of the cold front.

Conditions will rapidly improve for Monday into Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Skull Creek
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Thu -- 01:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:47 AM EST     6.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:56 AM EST     1.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:56 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:58 PM EST     6.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:07 PM EST     1.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Skull Creek, south entrance, Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, Tide feet

Savannah River Entrance
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Thu -- 12:39 AM EST     1.72 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:20 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM EST     -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:43 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:11 PM EST     1.59 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:57 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:32 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:09 PM EST     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:40 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current, knots

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