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Marine Weather and Tides Hilton Head Island, SC Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 6:17AM

Sunset 8:22PM

Tuesday May 26, 2020 11:30 PM EDT (03:30 UTC)

Moonrise 8:31AM

Moonset 11:09PM

Illumination 25%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hilton Head Island, SC

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Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 270116 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 916 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak low pressure is expected to track over or near the area tonight through Wednesday. Unsettled weather should prevail until a cold front moves through the region early next week. High pressure will bring drier conditions and cooler temperatures early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. The forecast philosophy has changed little over the past few hours. The current forecast still looks on track. The latest high resolution guidance suggests the more favorable tornado parameters should stay just offshore of the middle South Carolina coast. While an isolated waterspout and/or tornado can not be completely ruled out, this really looks to be a very low-end event through sunrise.

27/01z surface analysis placed 1009 hPa low pressure just north of Cape Canaveral, FL near New Smyrna Beach and still appears to be attached to weak inverted trough that extends offshore of Georgia and the northeastern Florida coast. The low is forecast to meander to the north overnight, likely approaching the Georgia or southern South Carolina coast by daybreak Wednesday. It is still unclear whether this low will be primary cyclone or if secondary cyclogenesis will occur over the warmer Gulf Steam waters induced by shortwave energy passing through aloft ahead of the upper low to the west. Either way, an axis of strong H8 moisture convergence juxtaposed within a broad plume of >2" PWATS will likely support a large band of showers and even a few tstms north and northeast of the surface low tonight. This northwest- southeast oriented band will likely spread into the South Carolina coast as sunrise approaches.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/. Wednesday morning: While the models are still somewhat inconsistent regarding forecast details, the low pressure system off the coast of Florida Tuesday afternoon is expected to advance north somewhere near the GA/SC coastline Wednesday. Onshore moisture transport and a plume PWATs exceeding 2 inches suggest the potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially Wednesday morning. Rain amounts could exceed 2 to 3 inches in localized places, especially the Tri-Country area. Because the best moisture should advance into northern counties, the threat of heavy/prolonged rainfall seems less likely in our Georgia areas, but can not be ruled out. Here, most rainfall amounts should fall into the 0.50 to 1.50 inch range, but locally higher amounts are possible. While heavy rain is the biggest threat, enhanced instability, shear and helicity will exist near the surface low where isolated tornadoes, waterspouts and damaging winds cannot be ruled out. As a result, SC coastal areas remain in a marginal risk for severe weather Wednesday.

Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night: As the low and associated deepest moisture pushes north of the area, POPs generally decrease from S/SW to N/NE across the area Wednesday afternoon, and per diurnal stabilization the chance for showers could decrease to less than 15 percent across S/W counties Wednesday night. Also, light winds and enhanced boundary layer moisture could support fog in some areas later Wednesday night.

Thursday: The mid-levels will consist of a cutoff low centered over Arkansas in the morning and high pressure off the Mid- Atlantic Coast. As time progresses, the low will become absorbed into long- wave troughing over the MS Valley, while the high gradually moves further offshore. At the surface, high pressure will be located far off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile, troughing is expected to develop over the Southeastern U.S. Lots of moisture will be ushered into the region from the Gulf. PWATs are forecasted to approach 2", which is 2 standard deviations above normal per NAEFs. Models seem to indicate the highest probabilities of rainfall across the Charleston Tri-County and the far inland counties during the morning, which focus shifting in the afternoon away from the immediate coast and more towards the inland counties. We generally have the highest POPs in the likely category, but it's possible these are too low in some locations. POPs trend downward in the evening with the setting sun, only to ramp back up again late at night as synoptic forcing becomes more favorable. QPF varies significantly from model to model. We have a few tenths in the forecast, but higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms. There is decent instability in place during the day. GFS MLCAPEs could approach 1,500 J/kg. But DCAPEs aren't overly impressive and shear is lacking. The overall severe threat doesn't seem too great, with the main hazard being damaging winds in the strongest storms. Temperatures should be near normal.

Friday: Mid-level troughing over the MS Valley in the morning will shift eastward and slowly weaken. Meanwhile, ridging in the Atlantic will move further offshore. Surface high pressure will be in the Atlantic while troughing prevails over the Southeast. Abundant moisture will be in place across the region, with PWATs approaching 2". This is about 2 standard deviations above normal per NAEFs. Models seem to indicate the greatest potential of showers is west of I-95. Though, they split on the QPF. Hence, we went with a blend and this generated values high enough to warrant categorical POPs for most locations. Instability appears to be comparable to Thursday with shear slightly higher. The resulting overall severe threat again is low, with the main hazard being damaging winds in the strongest storms. Temperatures should be 1-2 degrees cooler than on Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Moderate confidence this period. The deep upper trough to the west is expected to weaken and shift east through the area late week with a cold front likely pushing through Saturday night into early Sunday. Deep moisture ahead of the front should keep rain chances at or above normal through Saturday night, although a few showers could even linger Sunday as the drier air lags a bit behind. By early Monday though cooler and much drier high pressure will build from the north. The risk of any severe storms looks low overall given generally weak deep layer shear with heavy rain and localized flooding possibly the bigger risk, especially after several days of rain leading to already wet ground. High temperatures should be near normal this weekend before dropping below normal while low temperatures likely stay above normal through Saturday night before falling back to near/below normal levels.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. MVFR cigs will prevail at KCHS and KSAV for much of the 00z TAF period. Showers could initially impact KSAV early, but no major impacts are expected. A broad band of rain is expected to fill in across the Charleston Tri-County area closer to daybreak ahead of an area of low pressure. This should bring some reduced vsbys into the KCHS terminal, likely only to MVFR levels at this point. Rain should pull out by early afternoon. There is a chance that a brief period of IFR cigs could fill into KSAV by mid-morning the low passes by, but confidence in this happening is not very high at this point. Cigs could return to VFR at KSAV by mid-afternoon, but there is a possibility that this will not happen as some diurnal showers/tstms could redevelop. This will have to be carefully monitored.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers/thunderstorms are expected to bring periodic flight restrictions through the weekend.

MARINE. Tonight: Increased winds along the Charleston County where a pinched gradient is supporting winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Winds are lower farther to the south where the gradient is a bit less. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters. Did extend flags in the Charleston Harbor through 1 AM EDT.

Wednesday: Small Craft Advisories will remain in place through late morning for AMZ350 and AMZ374 as low pressure tracks over or close to the waters. Then, a slackening gradient should support lighter winds/subsiding seas Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Thunderstorms could produce locally hazardous conditions, most likely Wednesday morning but perhaps persisting into Wednesday afternoon/night.

Thursday through the Weekend: The coastal waters will be situated between high pressure in the Atlantic and surface troughing inland. The resulting surface pressure gradient will lead to sustained winds no more than 10-15 kt through Saturday. A cold front is forecasted to move through the waters on Sunday. Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents for the Charleston County beaches, mainly for elevated onshore winds.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tidal departures continue to slowly come down and the latest trends suggest tides in Charleston Harbor should peak right around 7.0 ft MLLW. At this time, it is preferred to not issue a Coastal Flood Advisory since levels will come just barely to advisory criteria and the main impacts will be mostly felt in spotty areas of Downtown Charleston, including Fishburne Street and Hagood Avenue along Gadsden Creek. A Coastal Flood Statement may be considered to highlight possible issues in this area.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ352. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ350-374. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ354.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA	15 mi	43 min	E 17 G 25	74°F	78°F		1015.4 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC	29 mi	46 min	NNE 4.1	74°F			1016 hPa	70°F
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC	57 mi	31 min	NE 19 G 21	74°F			1016.5 hPa (+0.0)	74°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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Last 24hr

E19 G23

E16 G22

E17

E17 G21

NE15 G19

E17 G21

E15 G19

E17 G23

E18 G22

E22

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NE19 G25

E20 G27

E20 G26

E19 G29

NE24 G30

NE18 G22

NE20 G26

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E18 G23

E18 G22

1 day ago

SE3

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2 days ago

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SE4 G7

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S5 G8

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC	4 mi	36 min	Var 6 G 19	2.00 mi	Rain	73°F	71°F	94%	1015.6 hPa
Beaufort County Airport, SC	15 mi	36 min	no data	7.00 mi	Overcast	72°F	69°F	94%	1015.6 hPa
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC	18 mi	35 min	NE 9	10.00 mi	Overcast	74°F	69°F	85%	1015.6 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA	23 mi	38 min	NE 7	10.00 mi	Overcast	73°F	71°F	94%	1015 hPa
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA	24 mi	95 min	NE 7	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	73°F	70°F	90%	1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHXD

Wind History from HXD (wind in knots)

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E10 G16

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NE10 G18

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E10 G17

E13 G20

E9 G17

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E14 G21

E14 G21

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1 day ago

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Calm

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NE3

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E5 G12

E9 G15

E6 G14

E8 G19

E12 G18

E12 G17

E12 G17

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E9 G16

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E7 G14

2 days ago

SW5

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Calm

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S8 G14

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Tide / Current Tables for Skull Creek, south entrance, Hilton Head Island, South Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (23,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC

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