Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Byram, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 7:26PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 4:02 PM CDT (21:02 UTC) Moonrise 6:11PMMoonset 5:40AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Byram, MS
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location: 32.22, -90.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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FXUS64 KJAN 072020 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 320 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

DISCUSSION.

Tonight and Tomorrow .

Moderate to light rain showers will continue through tonight with expectations of any convection diminishing around early evening once we begin to lose daytime heating. With the heavy influence of deep layer moisture ruling the Deep South at the moment, can't rule out a shower or 2 during the overnight hours mainly for areas north of I- 20. Mostly cloudy skies can be expected tonight with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees area-wide.

As we move into Wednesday, remnants of an upper-level ridge will rule over much of the ArkLaMiss. This will result in high temperatures to climb into the mid and even upper 80s in the most southern parts of our CWA. Even though upper level ridging will be in place, an area of low pressure will drag a cold front down and will begin to approach our area Wednesday. There will be rain and potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Models disagree heavily with timing in regards to potential severe threat and when the rain will come in. They do however agree with impressive amounts of deep layer shear and and instability. The best chances for severe potential will in the northern counties where a 'Slight Risk' has been added to cover areas in the north like Columbus and a 'Marginal Risk' for the central part of MS. The primary threats for both these risks area will be damaging winds up to 60-70mph and hail up to the size of quarter and golfball. /JNE/

Tomorrow night through Tuesday .

An active period of weather will continue through the weekend as several storm systems move through the region. The forecast starts off tomorrow night with a split flow pattern across the CONUS featuring a cutoff closed mid/upper-level low meandering over southern California and a subtropical jet extending across the Gulf Coast states. To the north, a shortwave trough will be swinging through the Great Lakes with a sharp cold front dropping through the Midwest. An unstable and highly sheared environment will be in place across the ArkLaMiss Wednesday into early Thursday morning ahead of the front. Rich boundary layer moisture with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will yield upwards of 3500 J/kg of SBCAPE with modest mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer vertical wind shear of 50- 60kts. Two rounds of severe weather will be possible during this period, the first of which being focused during the afternoon Wednesday ahead of the front itself. This activity is expected to be winding down heading into the evening as daytime heating wanes. A second round of severe weather will be possible late overnight into early Thursday morning over northern portions of the area associated with the cold front itself. Strong linear forcing along the front will favor organized line segments with damaging winds as the primary threat. Steep lapse rates will also support the potential for large hail, especially with any stronger updrafts that can remain isolated. A slight risk has been introduced along the Hwy 82 corridor for the overnight threat with a marginal risk elsewhere mainly focusing on Wednesday afternoon.

The cold front is expected to stall along the Gulf Coast on Friday beneath the right entrance region of the upper jet. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Pine Belt along the stalled boundary late Thursday evening into early Friday morning. There will be a brief lull in the action Friday afternoon through Saturday morning with seasonably cool temperatures in the wake of the cold frontal passage.

The next, and potentially significant, storm system is forecast to impact the area this weekend. The 12z suite of global model guidance continues to come into better agreement that the aforementioned cutoff closed mid/upper-level low over California will be slower to eject and miss the phase with the northern stream trough on Thursday. The key player will be a shortwave trough diving through British Columbia and into the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. This wave will help eject the closed low out of the Desert Southwest and into the Southern Plains as a neutrally tilted trough. The GFS remains a slightly faster outlier with the trough swinging through the Lower Mississippi River Valley Saturday night while the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET/ICON are all slower with the trough passing through on Sunday. Regardless, the trough is expected to obtain a negative tilt with surface cyclogenesis occurring over the ArkLaTex beneath a coupled upper jet.

Confidence is increasing in at least some degree of severe weather potential, however uncertainty remains with regards to moisture return. Several members of guidance (GFS/CMC) struggle to advect rich boundary layer moisture with warm frontal convection remaining anchored along the coastal baroclinic zone and inhibiting poleward moisture transport. On the other hand, other guidance (ECMWF/UKMET/ICON) brings upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints as far north as the Hwy 82 corridor Sunday morning with a moderately unstable and highly sheared warm sector. IF this later scenario is realized it would support the potential for a significant severe weather episode on Sunday. If run-to-run model consistency remains, at least some portion of the area will likely need to be outlooked for severe weather in the HWO/graphics, and as such the reader is strongly encouraged to check subsequent forecast updates throughout the week and into the weekend. /TW/

AVIATION. 18Z TAF discussion: Most sites are currently seeing MVFR conditions due to -RA and low ceilings with the exception of GTR experiencing IFR conditions. VCTS/RA/-RA will continue through early evening at most sites and even -RA into the overnight hours. This will keep ceilings and visibility lowered throughout the night especially with the heavy influence of moisture. Ceilings will continue to vary between MVFR/IF conditions throughout the TAF period./JNE/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Jackson 69 87 69 78 / 39 27 26 26 Meridian 68 86 70 79 / 49 35 29 26 Vicksburg 70 86 69 75 / 24 21 28 26 Hattiesburg 69 87 70 83 / 40 32 5 22 Natchez 69 85 69 77 / 18 27 12 28 Greenville 69 85 64 70 / 31 23 42 9 Greenwood 69 84 65 72 / 50 35 42 9

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MS . None. LA . None. AR . None.



TW/JNE


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jackson, Hawkins Field Airport, MS8 mi70 minSSW 13 G 1810.00 miOvercast81°F68°F65%1013.7 hPa
JB Williams Airport, MS11 mi68 minWSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F78°F94%1014.2 hPa
Jackson, Jackson International Airport, MS11 mi2.1 hrsW 510.00 miOvercast79°F69°F72%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHKS

Wind History from HKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3E3CalmCalmSE3SE3S7S5S6S8S6S4S3S3S4S5S7S6
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1 day ago4NW5N4N3NW4CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE5--SE4S5S10
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2 days agoCalmCalmW3NW7NW5CalmCalmN4CalmCalmNW3N4CalmCalmCalmNW4Calm5NW5NW5--56N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jackson, MS (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson/Brandon, MS
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.