Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 5:15 AM   Moonset 7:51 PM

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FXUS64 KJAN 081937 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 237 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

New DISCUSSION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Through Thursday: A capping inversion has continued to keep a lid on shower and thunderstorm development so far today. However, there is still a chance a few cells will break through late this afternoon into early this evening, especially along and north of the US 82 corridor. If any storms do develop, they could become severe given strong instability and deep layer shear. Damaging wind gusts and hail up to 1" are the main concerns. The threat should taper off by shortly after sunset, then a lull in activity is expected during the middle of the evening.

Later on tonight, convection developing north and west of the area will advance south and eastward and may begin to reach northern portions of the forecast area after midnight. Overall, these storms are expected to be more vigorous and numerous across parts of the Midsouth then begin to weaken with southward progress overnight.
However, particularly where convection is more organized, there is potential for storms to maintain damaging wind and perhaps marginally severe hail potential into southeast AR, portions of north LA, and northern portions of central MS during the early morning hours Thursday. The severe threat is expected to end by daybreak, though some showers and storms may linger into the morning hours tomorrow before subsidence in the wake of this round of storms provides a lull in activity. Isolated showers or storms will begin to redevelop in the heating of the afternoon Thursday, but greater convective potential will hold off until the nighttime hours. /DL/

Thursday night through Tuesday: An Enhanced Risk(3 out of 4) of severe storms is currently outlooked for our CWA between Highway 82 and Highway 84. Confidence has increased in the potential of convection organizing into and mcs to our west Thursday afternoon and moving east across the central portions of our CWA Thursday night. Damaging wind gusts of 75mph will be the main threat but hail up to the size of golf balls will also be possible. In addition tornadoes cannot be ruled out and locally heavy rainfall of one to two inches in a short amount of time will be possible. There still remains a spread in the guidance with timing but model consensus suggests that the mcs will be moving into our western most zones during the early evening and exiting out eastern most zones well before sunrise Friday. Although the severe threat will end before sunrise, a cold front will be moving through our CWA Friday morning and some anafrontal rainfall will prolong rain chances.

By Friday evening the cold front is expected to be pushing off the Gulf coast with a surface high building into our CWA from the west.
A subtle shortwave within the continued west to northwest flow aloft is expected to move across the region Friday night into Saturday morning but will have little moisture to work with and no additional precipitation is expected. Temperatures will be cooler than normal and in the 50s for morning lows Saturday. With northwest flow aloft continuing and the surface high shifting east across the region Saturday, cooler than normal and dry weather is expected to continue through Sunday morning but temperatures will warm back above normal by Sunday afternoon as weak shortwave ridging moves over our region and return flow increases. Moisture will continue to increase into Monday and rain chances will return in our west Sunday night ahead of the next low pressure system to affect our CWA Monday and Monday night. Models are starting to come into better agreement with this low pressure system that looks to involve a nearly stacked low over the central Plains. The potential for severe storms over our CWA looks to be increasing Monday afternoon and night. /22/ /22/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

MVFR stratus still linger at a few sites early this afternoon, but ceilings should return to VFR within the next hour or two at most sites. MVFR to locally IFR stratus will return again, spreading northward overnight and continuing into much of Thursday morning.
Southerly winds will be gusty at times today, with gusts to around 25 kt possible. Isolated TS cannot be ruled out this afternoon, but most areas will remain dry. Later tonight into early Thursday morning, SHRA and TS are possible across northern portions of the area including GLH/GWO/GTR, but the greatest chances will be north of these locations. If TS does occur, wind gusts to 50 kt are possible. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 72 89 66 80 / 20 20 70 10 Meridian 71 90 64 82 / 30 50 70 20 Vicksburg 72 90 66 80 / 30 20 70 0 Hattiesburg 74 93 69 85 / 20 20 70 30 Natchez 73 91 66 82 / 20 20 70 10 Greenville 71 88 64 78 / 60 20 40 0 Greenwood 70 88 63 78 / 60 40 50 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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