Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Willcox, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:19PM Friday December 6, 2019 8:48 AM MST (15:48 UTC) Moonrise 2:13PMMoonset 1:46AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willcox, AZ
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Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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FXUS65 KTWC 061001 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 300 AM MST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. Dry conditions with warmer than normal daytime temperatures into Saturday. Another weather system will bring valley rain and high elevation snow Sunday into Monday. Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures will prevail next Tuesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION. Upper ridge axis extended from southeast Arizona northwestward into the Pacific Northwest early this morning. This ridge axis was ahead of deep low pressure centered west of the northern California coast, or near 40N/135W. Generally zonal flow aloft will prevail across this forecast area into Saturday as the upper ridge flattens. This pattern will yield variable amounts of mostly cirriform clouds into the first half of the weekend.

The 06/00Z GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/ECENS were quite similar with depicting a progressive positive-tilted upper trough to move eastward into the western CONUS Saturday night. A few showers producing virga or very light rainfall may develop as early as Saturday evening across western Pima County, but much of southeast Arizona will remain precip-free Saturday evening. However, isolated to scattered showers should occur late Saturday night mostly northwest of a Safford-Tucson-Kitt Peak line.

Have noted that the 06/00Z deterministic ECMWF has trended away from a closed upper low system depicted via the 05/12 ECMWF to move eastward across the area early next week. As such, the 06/00Z ECMWF was very similar to the GFS with the depiction of an eastward moving positive-tilted upper trough to move eastward across southeast Arizona Sunday into Monday. Despite the positive-tilted structure, moisture will be sufficient to produce fairly widespread valley rain. Snow levels by daybreak Sunday should be mostly above mountain tops, but are forecast to fall to 7000-7500 feet midday Monday.

The mid/upper trough axis is progged to move well east of this forecast area late Monday night. Given that the 06/00Z ECMWF has trended away from a slower moving closed upper low system and is very close to the GFS solution, precip chance were lowered Monday night into Tuesday. Thus, a slight chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers exists Monday night east of Tucson followed by dry conditions area-wide Tuesday.

At this time, storm total rainfall amounts will generally range from 0.10 inch to 0.50 inch in the valleys, and from 0.25 inch to one inch in the mountains. Storm total snowfall accumulations should range from 1-5 inches across the highest peaks of the White Mountains, Mount Graham, and the Catalina and Rincon Mountains near Tucson. The bulk of precipitation should occur east of a Picacho Peak to Kitt Peak line with little if any measurable precipitation west of this line.

Although the models depict a shortwave trough will move eastward across the area next Wednesday night, this system is not expected to produce any measurable precip at this time. As a result, dry conditions are forecast at this time to continue next Wednesday into Thursday.

High temperatures today and Saturday will range about 3-7 degrees above normal. A cooling trend is on tap Sunday into Monday, with daytime temps Monday trending a few degrees below normal. High temps Tuesday into Thursday will mostly be within a few degrees of seasonal normals.

AVIATION. Valid through 07/12Z. Expect SCT-BKN cirrus clouds above 20k ft MSL persisting through the forecast period. Variable SFC wind less than 10 kts this morning. Winds then become easterly less than 12 kts this afternoon turning northwesterly at TUS and OLS in the evening. Winds will then be light and variable tonight into Saturday morning. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER. Dry conditions through Saturday. A weather system is expected to impact the area early Sunday into Monday with a chance of valley rain and mountain snow. The best chance for precipitation will be from central Pima County eastward and northward, and particularly across the higher elevations. A slight chance of showers continues Monday night across eastern sections, with dry conditions returning Tuesday and continuing through the end of the work week. 20-ft winds will generally remain less than 15 mph through the forecast period.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.



DISCUSSION . Francis AVIATION . Hardin FIRE WEATHER . Hardin

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Safford, Safford Municipal Airport, AZ43 mi58 minESE 1010.00 miFair49°F37°F66%1023.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSAD

Wind History from SAD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4Calm4W6W11W13NW11NW7W6W6W4N4NE5CalmSE5CalmW3CalmCalmCalmN4SE5E10SE10
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G16
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2 days agoS5S3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmS4CalmSE3NE4CalmNE4CalmW4CalmN4NW4E4N7SE4NE5E7SE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.