Shell Point, SC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shell Point, SC

June 24, 2024 8:55 AM EDT (12:55 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM
Moonrise 10:15 PM   Moonset 7:43 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 730 Am Edt Mon Jun 24 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am edt this morning - .

Today - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft this afternoon. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 6 seconds, becoming se 4 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.

Tonight - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 6 seconds. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms, mainly in the evening.

Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 6 seconds, becoming se 2 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms.

Tue night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight.

Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning.

Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms.

Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Thu night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 730 Am Edt Mon Jun 24 2024

Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - High pressure will remain over the western atlantic this week while occasional surface troughing prevails over the southeast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shell Point, SC
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Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 241128 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 728 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic this week while occasional surface troughing prevails over the Southeast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Early morning update: After further consideration and collaboration with surrounding offices, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the coastal areas from Beaufort County south through coastal McIntosh between noon and 6 pm.

Otherwise, no substantial changes were made to the going forecast.

Previous discussion...
Overnight composite analysis reveals an upper level trough diving through the eastern Great Lakes with lowering heights down into the mid Atlantic region. Attending surface trough is advancing into the western Carolinas/northern Georgia region along with a cluster of showers and a few thunderstorms. Quiet and very mild conditions across southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia, save for a band of thicker mid level cloud cover moving off the coast. A persistent southwest wind has held temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s all night.

Upper level trough will advance to the New England and mid Atlantic Coast region through today and eventually off the coast tonight. Surface trough will edge into the eastern Carolinas and central Georgia region this afternoon before stalling tonight.

Today: Quiet conditions anticipated through the morning hours albeit with temperatures quickly warming through the 80s and into the 90s by noon. Southern end of the upper trough in tandem with the incoming surface trough should kick off a thin line of showers and thunderstorms upstream this afternoon that advance through the forecast area and off the coast by this evening.
There may also be some secondary shower/thunderstorm development along the sea breeze boundary...where higher low level dewpoints/instability will be pooled. Latest forecast will advertise mainly scattered shower/thunderstorm chances essentially after 2 pm, although increase/decrease in precip chances may be warranted when convective evolution becomes clear.

Temperatures will easily reach the lower to middle 90s (93-97F)
across the region this afternoon...a little cooler along the coast. Surface dewpoints will tend to mix out/lower across inland areas, keeping heat index values in check under 105. But pooling moisture/dewpoints along the coast could again lead to elevated heat index values in excess of 105F. That said, passing showers/storms will quickly knock temps/HI values back down. So while a few locations along the coast could achieve Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon (108F), given the more isolated nature, no heat related headlines are planned at this time.

Severe weather chances: SPC Day 1 outlook continues to delineate a marginal risk for severe storms in the eastern Carolinas owing to slightly enhanced flow aloft near the base of the upper trough over top a warm/unstable air mass across the region. A few strong storms producing damaging gusts are possible.

Tonight: Initial showers/thunderstorms will move off the coast by early evening. But of note, recent high-res guidance runs show another cluster of showers/storms developing across the Midlands late this afternoon along the stalling surface trough, then advancing down through portions of southeast South Carolina this evening and off the coast overnight. Will see how that plays out, but forecast will hold on to showers/thunderstorm chances through the evening into early overnight, particularly for southeast SC. Lows largely in the middle 70s anticipated, warmer at the beaches.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Tuesday: Mid-level troughing initially offshore will shift away as time progresses. Meanwhile, broad High pressure centered over the Southern Plains tries to make its way towards our region. But it's not expected to make much progress. A weak cold front should be located across our far inland counties or just north of them at daybreak. It's forecasted to slowly shift southward during the day, moving across our area. After briefly transitioning to a stationary front over our area, it should reverse direction and head back to the north during the evening and overnight while weakening. The front will keep the highest PWATs south and offshore of our area.
But they could still exceed 1.75" closer to the coast, which is a bit above normal for this time of year. The heat will be the main concern due to 850 mb temperatures, low-level thickness values, and compression near the front. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s across most of our area, except cooler at the beaches. Dew points well into the 70s near the coast will cause heat indices to rise to ~106 degrees, which is just short of Heat Advisory criteria.
Afternoon convection is expected with the front and afternoon sea breeze as forcing mechanisms. The models differ on the convective coverage. The synoptic models point towards isolated coverage while the long-range CAMs point towards scattered or greater coverage.
Given the setup and time of year, we leaned heavily with the long- range CAMs. MLCAPEs should approach 2,000-2,500 J/kg across portions of our area with some shear. With DCAPEs exceeding 1,000 J/kg, a few marginally severe storms with damaging winds are possible just about anywhere. Additionally, there will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall underneath the thunderstorms due to weak steering flow and the potential for training. Convection should quickly decrease during the evening, with the overnight being mainly dry.
Lows will be in the 70s.

Wednesday: The mid-levels will consist of troughing developing over the East Coast. At the surface, a weak stationary front should be located to our west and north at daybreak. It's forecasted to dissipate into the afternoon. Though, surface troughing should remain in place across our region. A cold front should approach from the northwest overnight. Though, it's not expected to reach our area during that time frame. Higher PWATs should gradually creep into our area as time progresses, especially along the coast. Similar to Tuesday, high temperatures are expected to reach well into the 90s for most areas. Dew points well into the 70s near the coast will cause heat indices to rise to ~106 degrees, which is just short of Heat Advisory criteria. Afternoon convection is expected with the sea breeze. Though, the synoptic models point towards isolated coverage, which may be underdone. Scattered coverage seems more reasonable given the setup and time of year. Instability, DCAPEs, and sheer should be similar to Tuesday, so a few marginally severe storms with damaging winds can't be ruled out. Additionally, there will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall underneath the thunderstorms due to fairly weak steering flow and the potential for training. Convection should quickly decrease during the evening, with the overnight being mainly dry. Lows will be in the 70s.

Thursday: Mid-level troughing initially over the East Coast will shift offshore. A cold front located to our northwest at daybreak should slowly move across our area later in the day. There will be a plume of deep moisture ahead of the front. Forcing from the front and afternoon sea breeze are expected to generate convection.
Though, the coverage will depend on how much instability is in place and the amount of shear. So this aspect of the forecast will need to be adjusted. Similar to the previous two days, high temperatures are expected to reach well into the 90s for most areas. Dew points well into the 70s near the coast will cause heat indices to rise as high as 108-110 degrees along the coast, which could prompt Heat Advisories. But they may be brief as the convection would quickly cool temperatures.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Mid-level troughing initially over the East Coast will eventually transition to ridging over the Southeast U.S. by the weekend.
Surface troughing or weak fronts will be impacting the Southeast U.S. while High pressure is near Bermuda. This summertime pattern will yield diurnal convection. The highest POPs are each afternoon and evening, then trending lower overnight. High temperatures will be well into the 90s each day. Additionally, heat indices could approach 108 degrees along the coast each day.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z Tuesday. However, tempo MVFR cigs/vsbys can not be ruled out this afternoon through this evening as a trough pushes through the region with showers and/or thunderstorms that potentially impact the terminals. Confidence in timing/duration of the event remains low at this juncture and latest forecast will feature VCSH in the forecasts after 18Z.

Initial round of showers/storms move off the coast early this evening. However, another round of showers and/or thunderstorms may roll through the southeast South Carolina counties during the evening hours. Again, confidence in timing/duration remains low and will not be included with the 12Z forecasts.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR. However, convection will bring brief flight restrictions, mainly each afternoon and evening.

MARINE
Through tonight: An enhanced pressure gradient across southeast coast is producing rather stout southwest flow across the coastal waters early this morning, with winds running 15 to 20 knots and gusts 20 to 30 knots, including Charleston Harbor.
Thus, Small Craft Advisories have been expanded into all SC nearshore zones including Charleston Harbor until 11 AM. Winds appear to be a little weaker in the Georgia coastal waters with a Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters still valid through 8 AM.

Winds and seas should diminish late morning and through the afternoon, but later shifts will need to assess whether or not headlines need to be extended.

Extended Marine: A typical summertime pattern is expected with High pressure in the western Atlantic and occasional surface troughing over the Southeast. Each day, expect gradually backing winds.
They'll be strongest along the land/sea interface and the Charleston Harbor with the formation of the afternoon sea breeze. Each night, winds will gradually veer, possibly surging closer to the coast.
Seas will average 2-4 ft.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for SCZ048-051.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ330- 350-352-374.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 18 mi55 minWSW 8.9G13 80°F 83°F29.92
41033 21 mi107 minSW 18G25 81°F 82°F29.8877°F
41067 21 mi100 min 82°F5 ft
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 26 mi70 minSW 1.9 81°F 29.8675°F


Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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Wind History graph: HXD
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Tide / Current for Victoria Bluff, South Carolina
   
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Victoria Bluff
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Mon -- 05:29 AM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:24 AM EDT     6.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:55 PM EDT     8.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Victoria Bluff, South Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
8.2
1
am
7
2
am
5.1
3
am
3
4
am
1.1
5
am
-0.1
6
am
-0
7
am
1
8
am
2.8
9
am
4.7
10
am
6.1
11
am
6.9
12
pm
6.8
1
pm
5.9
2
pm
4.4
3
pm
2.6
4
pm
0.9
5
pm
-0.2
6
pm
-0.1
7
pm
1
8
pm
3
9
pm
5.1
10
pm
6.9
11
pm
8


Tide / Current for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
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Mon -- 02:49 AM EDT     -2.46 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:20 AM EDT     2.08 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:37 PM EDT     -1.98 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:44 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT     2.47 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current, knots
12
am
-0.5
1
am
-1.7
2
am
-2.3
3
am
-2.5
4
am
-2.1
5
am
-1.2
6
am
0.1
7
am
1.4
8
am
2
9
am
1.9
10
am
1.4
11
am
0.7
12
pm
-0.2
1
pm
-1.2
2
pm
-1.9
3
pm
-1.9
4
pm
-1.6
5
pm
-0.9
6
pm
0.3
7
pm
1.6
8
pm
2.4
9
pm
2.4
10
pm
1.9
11
pm
1.2


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Charleston, SC,




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