Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shell Point, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:53PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 12:37 PM EST (17:37 UTC) Moonrise 9:46AMMoonset 9:26PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 612 Am Est Tue Jan 28 2020
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming variable less than 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft. Rain.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
AMZ300 612 Am Est Tue Jan 28 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail through tonight. A storm system will impact the area late Wednesday into early Thursday, followed by another storm system Friday into Saturday. High pressure is expected early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shell Point, SC
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location: 32.29, -80.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 281527 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1027 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will prevail through tonight. A storm system will impact the area late Wednesday into early Thursday, followed by another storm system Friday into Saturday. High pressure is expected early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Today: Weak sfc high pressure will prevail across the Southeast United States while subtle mid-lvl ridging occurs behind a departing h5 shortwave offshore. The setup will favor a northwest downsloping wind across the area late this morning and afternoon, keeping all areas dry under clear skies. Although sfc temps started off cooler this morning, strong sfc heating and the downslope wind will help temps warm a degree or two higher than the previous day. Warmer temps can also be expected near the coast due to the northwest wind during peak heating hours. In general, high temps should range in the low/mid 60s, warmest near the Altamaha River in Southeast Georgia.

Tonight: The boundary layer will quickly decouple after sunset resulting in a light/calm wind regime dominating through the night. Skies look to remain clear with high pressure holding firm. This will promote strong radiational cooling after sunset. The leading edge of the cirrus spreading east ahead of the next storm looks to hold off until after daybreak, so this should not interrupt the radiative process during the diurnal minimum. Generally favored the cooler side of guidance to construct low temperatures Wednesday morning given the favorable radiative setup. Lows will drop into the mid 30s inland to the upper 30s/lower 40s across the coastal counties with upper 40s/near 50 for the beaches and Downtown Charleston. If the cirrus does end up propagating in earlier than expected, then an uptick in temperatures would be needed.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Wednesday: The mid-levels will consist of wave to our west in the morning. The wave will move overhead during the evening, then offshore overnight. At the surface, a storm system centered near the Lower MS Valley in the morning will move eastward. The main low is expected to pass to our south late in the evening, then speed up and move offshore overnight. The models remain in good agreement showing decent lift and moisture across our area. Though, the best moisture and lift continue to be to our south. POPs are likely/categorical for most locations in the evening and overnight hours. QPF ranges from ~0.1' across our far northern tier to ~0.5" across our far southern tier. Highs are expected to be normal while lows should be a few degrees above normal due to the clouds/precipitation.

Thursday: A mid-level wave just offshore in the morning will move away while weak ridging moves in from the west, allowing heights to rise. The storm system will be offshore in the morning, pushed away by broad high pressure moving in from the north/west. Any remnant showers should quickly move away early in the morning, setting the stage for a dry day and then night. Though, it'll be breezy at the beaches. Temperatures should be within a few degrees of normal.

Friday: The mid-levels will consist of a weak ridge over the East Coast in the morning. The ridge will get pushed offshore in the afternoon as an strengthening trough approaches from the west. At the surface, high pressure initially to our distant north/northeast will move away as a storm system in the Gulf of Mexico strengthens and overspreads the Southeast U.S. Decent moisture and lift should be in place by the afternoon, with models indicating increasing shower areal coverage and intensity. POPs remain in the high end chance category, but if trends persist they'll need to be raised more. Temperatures will be somewhat tricky as we'll be battling cool wedging to the north and warmer air from the south. We went with most of the models, which have the cooler outcome and high temperatures a few degrees below normal.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. A storm system will bring showers to the Southeast Friday night, before moving away on Saturday. High pressure and dry conditions are expected late Saturday through Monday. Temperatures could be well above normal on Monday.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR conditions will prevail at both CHS and SAV terminals through 12Z Wednesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Two separate storm systems could bring flight restrictions Wednesday/Wednesday night and again on Friday/Saturday.

MARINE. Today and Tonight: Marine conditions will remain quiet today and tonight with weak high pressure at the sfc and subtle ridging aloft. In general, northerly winds between 10-15 kt late this morning will become variable less than 5-10 kt across all coastal waters this afternoon. Overnight, winds will remain light as high pressure persists across the area. Seas will also be no higher than 1-3 ft through tonight.

Wednesday into Thursday: A storm system will develop in the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday, with the surface low passing just to our south Wednesday night. The low will move away Thursday as high pressure builds in from the north. Strong winds and elevated waves resulting from this systems will necessitate Small Craft Advisories for most of the coastal waters outside of Charleston Harbor Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The worst conditions should be around daybreak Thursday. Winds and seas are expected to drop throughout Thursday and the advisories would drop off as well. Though, an advisory for the GA waters beyond 20 nm would continue through Thursday night due to slowly subsiding seas.

Friday: Wind/wave conditions will be below advisory levels as the next storm system approaches from the west. The system should pass offshore Friday night.

Weekend: The storm system will move away while high pressure approaches from the west. The interaction between these two features will cause strong winds and elevated seas. Small Craft Advisories are expected.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . None.

NEAR TERM . DPB SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . AVIATION . DPB MARINE . DPB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 18 mi56 min ENE 6 G 7 53°F 53°F1017.3 hPa
41033 21 mi90 min NNE 7.8 G 12 49°F 54°F1018.1 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 26 mi113 min N 1.9 53°F 1017 hPa42°F
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 56 mi38 min ENE 5.1 G 6 53°F 1017 hPa (+0.0)40°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC7 mi48 minNE 510.00 miFair57°F39°F51%1017.3 hPa
Beaufort County Airport, SC12 mi43 minENE 410.00 miFair54°F37°F54%1016.9 hPa
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC14 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair57°F39°F53%1016.7 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA24 mi45 minNW 510.00 miFair60°F36°F41%1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHXD

Wind History from HXD (wind in knots)
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CalmCalmW4W3W3W4Calm366Calm34SW5SW5SW5W8NW9W7

Tide / Current Tables for Victoria Bluff, South Carolina
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Victoria Bluff
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:53 AM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:22 AM EST     7.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:24 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:26 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:33 PM EST     6.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.35.13.31.50.2-0.20.51.93.75.36.57.27.16.24.62.7100.11.22.84.55.86.5

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:34 AM EST     -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:19 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:50 AM EST     1.78 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:38 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:01 PM EST     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:44 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:11 PM EST     1.91 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:26 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:53 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-1.4-1.6-1.6-1.3-0.40.81.61.81.51.10.5-0.4-1.2-1.7-1.8-1.6-0.90.31.41.91.71.30.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.