Monday, April6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shell Point, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:47PM Monday April 6, 2020 2:07 AM EDT (06:07 UTC) Moonrise 5:21PMMoonset 5:23AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 1216 Am Edt Mon Apr 6 2020
Rest of tonight..SE winds 5 kt, becoming s. Seas 1 to 3 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 1216 Am Edt Mon Apr 6 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail for the first half of this week. A cold front is expected to move through the region towards the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shell Point, SC
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location: 32.29, -80.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 060438 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1238 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will prevail for the first half of this week. A cold front is expected to move through the region towards the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Fog is poised to expand cross the region over the next few hours, especially along the I-95 corridor, including parts of the Charleston and Savannah Metro Areas. The fog could become dense at times, but how widespread the dense fog will become is still unknown. 1000 hPa condensation pressure deficits are not overly favorable for widespread dense fog, but trends are being watched carefully. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed for some areas prior to daybreak.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The general overview during the first half of the week depicts a low amplitude ridge that will extend across the Gulf of Mexico into much of the southern states from Texas to the local area. Embedded within the resulting west-northwest flow aloft will be periodic short waves that will move over or near the immediate vicinity. That along with the sub-tropical upper jet that resides atop or close to the area, will supply enough forcing for at least some convection, mainly diurnal in nature each day. Meanwhile, surface high pressure initially overhead Monday and Tuesday will start to shift southeast Wednesday in advance of an upstream cold front and pre-frontal trough.

For Monday we are showing slight chance PoP across our South Carolina counties in closer proximity to a weak surface trough to the lee of the mountains, aided by the resultant sea breeze. There was some t-storms locally on Sunday, despite little instability, so we did consider adding t-storms Monday, but since there is some guidance suggestive of nothing reaching the area, we held off at this time.

On Tuesday, moisture profiles are the deepest, with the resulting pWat on the order of 1.4 to 1.6 inches. This moisture will have a better looking short wave that moves in during peak heating, and that along with the sea breeze and a nearby Piedmont trough will be enough for isolated to scattered PoP, highest of 30-40% along the north and northwest counties. There is actually a little "better" instability than recent days, so we did include a mention of t- storms for the afternoon.

Then during Wednesday, the moisture profiles are less and the sea breeze will be less of a factor with a deep offshore flow, even within much of the boundary layer. So for that reason we don't want to go any higher than 20/30% chances. Despite this, instability is even more than on Tuesday, with MUCAPE as high as 500 J/kg and LI's as low as -3 to -4C. Thus we feel compelled to maintain a mention of t-storms.

Temps Monday and Tuesday look to reach the lower or middle 80s inland from the coast, with Wednesday the warmest day of the short term period, with mid and upper 80s more common. If convection is delayed enough or turns out less in coverage, thickness values support around 90F in some places with the deep downslope flow. Night time lows will average far above climo.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. A cold front will slowly approach from the northwest during the middle the week, moving through sometime during the second half of the week. Models still vary on exactly when the front will move through, and the resulting weather before and afterwards. Again, we were forced to go with a blend of the models with POPs no higher than chance. Temperatures will be above normal Thursday, cooling down afterwards.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for fog development over the next few hours. The fog will initially be shallow, but is expected to thicken prior to daybreak. The most favorable fog parameters look to be at KSAV where rain fell close by yesterday. However, fog could still get pretty thick at KCHS. Plan to trend lower with conditions for the 06z TAF cycle. For KCHS, IFR vsbys are expected by 0930z with conditions occasionally dropping to near airfield minimums. For KSAV, prevailing LIFR vsbys are expected by 09z with vsbys dropping below airfield minimums on occasion. Prevailing 1/4SM FG is a possibility at both sites and trends are being watched carefully in case amendments are needed, especially for the initial push this morning. Once the fog lifts shortly after daybreak, VFR conditions will prevail.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR Monday afternoon. Gusty winds possible at times Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Showers could bring brief flight restrictions each afternoon from Tuesday through Friday.

MARINE. Watching for possible fog impacts in the Charleston Harbor.

Tonight: High pressure centered north of the region will maintain east to southeast winds 10-15 kt this evening, then winds should veer toward the south and diminish around 5 kt overnight. Seas will average 1-3 ft nearshore waters and 3-5 ft Georgia offshore waters, mainly in an east-northeast swell.

Monday through Friday night: Atlantic high pressure that encompasses the waters Monday and Tuesday, will shift further southeast during mid week in advance of the next cold front that looks to move in by late week. If there is any chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions, it would be Tuesday and Tuesday night on the AMZ350 waters and maybe in Charleston harbor Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon where sea breeze influences will enhance the wind fields.

Rip Currents: Given the strong influences of the upcoming full moon and perigee, plus small swells and sea breeze circulations, we have shown a Moderate Risk of rip currents at area beaches for both Monday and Tuesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Higher than normal tides are expected most of this week due to astronomical influences from the upcoming full moon and lunar perigee. Additionally, winds are forecasted to be onshore at times, and small swells will also occur, which would further elevate the tides. As a result, minor coastal flooding is likely through Tuesday, with minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding during the mid and late week. Additional Coastal Flood Advisories will be required.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 18 mi50 min Calm G 1 64°F 66°F1019.4 hPa
41033 21 mi60 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 67°F 67°F1018.5 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 26 mi83 min Calm 60°F 1019 hPa59°F
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 56 mi68 min SSE 8 G 8.9 67°F 1019.6 hPa (+0.0)64°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC7 mi73 minN 010.00 miFair61°F59°F94%1019.6 hPa
Beaufort County Airport, SC12 mi73 minN 07.00 miFair61°F59°F94%1019.3 hPa
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC14 mi72 minSW 310.00 miFair60°F57°F90%1019.2 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA24 mi75 minN 00.50 miFog59°F57°F93%1019.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHXD

Wind History from HXD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4345E4E4E4E4E6
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1 day agoN3455NE10
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2 days agoCalmCalm4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE5E4E4E4S7SE5
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Tide / Current Tables for Victoria Bluff, South Carolina
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Victoria Bluff
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:02 AM EDT     -1.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:24 AM EDT     8.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:26 PM EDT     -1.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:54 PM EDT     8.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.5-0.4-1.1-0.51.23.55.87.78.78.57.35.12.50.3-1-0.90.42.54.978.598.26.4

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:16 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:56 AM EDT     2.51 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:34 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:44 AM EDT     -2.39 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:19 PM EDT     2.40 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:59 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.2-1.7-0.41.12.22.52.21.60.7-0.6-1.7-2.3-2.4-2-10.51.82.42.31.81.1-0-1.3-2.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.