Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shell Point, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:19PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 2:41 PM EST (19:41 UTC) Moonrise 4:24PMMoonset 5:30AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 1253 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Friday afternoon...
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..S winds 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ300 1253 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Unseasonably warm conditions will prevail ahead of a cold front today. The cold front will push through the region tonight, with strong high pressure to build over the area Wednesday through Thursday. A low pressure system will impact the area late week, followed by a return to high pressure over the weekend into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shell Point, SC
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location: 32.29, -80.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 101759 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1259 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. Unseasonably warm conditions will prevail ahead of a cold front today. The cold front will push through the region tonight, with strong high pressure to build over the area Wednesday through Thursday. A low pressure system will impact the area late week, followed by a return to high pressure over the weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Early this afternoon: Satellite imagery shows nearly clear skies across much of the forecast area. Some scattered cumulus persist across the interior part of the area, but overall plenty of sunshine and surface heating. Temperatures have warmed as expected and we are now at or just below 80 in many areas. Overall, no change to the forecast through the afternoon. Minimal sky cover, no rain, and near record warmth.

Tonight: The cold front will be rather slow in passing through as it becomes oriented to the southwest flow aloft and continues to be impeded by deep ridging from Bermuda to Cuba. Plus the better dynamics will remain off to the north and northwest and the band of deep moisture that is along and behind the cold front shrinks with time. The front itself reaches near the coast by 04-06Z and then pushes into the ocean thereafter. Since the front is an ana-type cold front, the associated showers will occur mainly behind the front, with 40-50% PoP maintained in the forecast. While surface-based CAPE and instability is over the ocean, there is a little bit of elevated instability. Thus we can't rule out a little thunder and lightning in a few spots.

Sea fog will try to expand onshore prior to midnight, but as winds turn offshore late it would push any fog back offshore.

Warm conditions out ahead of the front will hold temps in the 60s through much of the night, but cold advection strengthens significantly late and continues into Wednesday morning. This results in actual lows that occur during the mid morning hours on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Strong high pressure will build in from the west on Wednesday behind a departing cold front. Models have backed off on precipitation coverage with drier air moving in, so besides a few showers in the morning, the remainder of the day should be mostly dry. Temperatures really won't move too much throughout the day with ongoing cold advection and an abundance of cloud cover. It will be several degrees cooler than previous days. Lows Wednesday night will be near normal.

High pressure will become wedged down the east side of the Appalachians on Thursday, as a coastal trough develops offshore. A tight pressure gradient between these two features will result in gusty northeast winds, primarily along the coast where gusts around 30 mph will be common. Otherwise, increasing isentropic ascent could support a couple showers, but a good bit of dry air in the mid and upper levels should keep coverage fairly limited through the daytime hours. Forecast continues to feature 20-30% rain chances in the afternoon. Another cool day in the wedge regime with highs topping out in the mid 50s.

High pressure will weaken Thursday night into Friday as low pressure lifts northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico and passes over or near the area. There are still inconsistencies between models regarding timing and the exact track of the low, but regardless, it appears to be a wet day as precipitable water values surge to near 1.5 inches and coincides with favorable large scale forcing from upper divergence and vort energy. Rain chances have been increased to around 70% and will likely need to be increased again in future forecast packages assuming trends hold. Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible. Given uncertainty in track of the low, temperature forecast is a bit tricky. Current forecast shows highs ranging from the mid 50s inland to low 60s at the coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Models are in decent agreement through the long term period. Low pressure and associated rainfall is expected to be exiting the area Friday night into Saturday. High pressure will return in its wake, with dry conditions expected for the latter half of the weekend and early next week. Temperatures will generally be above normal.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS and KSAV into the evening. A cold front will push through overnight, bringing with it scattered showers and likely a period of MVFR ceilings. KCHS has the best chance of seeing a shower, but the coverage still looks unimpressive so we only have VCSH. MVFR ceilings should settle into both sites just behind the front in the early morning hours. These ceilings could stick around through most of Wednesday morning before lifting and scattering out beyond the TAF period. Winds will remain southwesterly this afternoon with gusts into the 18-23 kt range. By Wednesday morning expect strengthening north to northeast flow.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions in ceilings could linger into Wednesday. Flight restrictions are then likely Thursday night through Friday as a low pressure system impacts the area. VFR is expected to return on Saturday.

MARINE. Today: The west-northwest periphery of extensive Atlantic high pressure will continue to hold back the next cold front from getting here . at least for the time being. S and SW winds will average 10 to 15 kt, with some higher gusts, while seas will be as large as 3 to 5 ft.

Tonight: It takes until after midnight before the front starts reaching the local waters, but it is past the entire marine area before daybreak Wednesday. S and SW winds of 10 to 15 kt ahead of the front will clock around to the W and drop several knots for a few hours as the isobar pattern becomes "baggy overnight. Winds then shift to the NW and increase a good 5 to 10 kt begins the front late. Seas will hold in the range of 3 to 5 ft. Showers and maybe even a couple of t-storms will occur in association with the front.

Sea Fog: Given the abnormally warm and humid air mass, conditions would appear favorable for sea fog. However, there is too much wind in the mixed layer today. Winds will drop off enough for several hours prior to the frontal passage between about 11 pm and 3 am. This would be the prime time for any significant sea fog to occur. We have patchy fog in the forecast to account for this. As winds shift offshore in direction late the fog potential diminishes quickly before sunrise Wednesday.

Wednesday through Sunday: Marine conditions will deteriorate Wednesday into Thursday as strong high pressure builds into the area. We have issued Small Craft Advisories for all of the coastal waters due to increasing northeast winds and building seas. An Advisory is likely for the Charleston Harbor at some point as well, however it appears winds will not reach criteria until Wednesday night, so have held off on issuing for now. The worst conditions across the waters will occur late Wednesday night through Thursday, when gale-force gusts will be possible. Gale Watches and/or Warnings could be needed for at least portions of the waters. Conditions will improve on Friday, although advisories will persist as seas take a bit longer to subside. Low pressure will pass over or near the waters late week into early weekend, followed by a return to high pressure. No additional concerns are expected at this time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Elevated tide cycles are expected late week due to increasing astronomical influences with the full moon on Thursday and strong northeasterly winds. Minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible with the morning high tides Thursday through Saturday. Coastal Flood Advisories could be required. Also of note, if significant rainfall occurs around the morning high tides Friday and Saturday, the potential for flooding of poor drainage areas could increase along the coast.

CLIMATE. Record Maximum Temps for the month of December . KCHS . 83F set on December 11, 1972. KSAV . 83F, set multiple times, the last on December 24, 2015.

Record Maximum Temps December 10th . KCHS . 82F set in 1972. KCXM . 79F set in 1943. KSAV . 82F set in 1972.

Record High Minimum Temp December 10th . KCXM . 62F last set in 2012.

EQUIPMENT. KCLX will remain down until further notice.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ352-354. Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 4 PM EST Saturday for AMZ374. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ350.



NEAR TERM . BSH/33 SHORT TERM . ETM LONG TERM . ETM AVIATION . BSH/ETM MARINE . 33/ETM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . CLIMATE . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 18 mi59 min SSW 8.9 G 11 72°F 58°F1017.3 hPa
41033 21 mi93 min SSW 9.7 G 14 61°F 59°F1018.3 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 26 mi116 min SSW 1.9 77°F 1018 hPa65°F
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 56 mi41 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 62°F 1017.6 hPa (-2.1)61°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC7 mi51 minSSW 9 G 1610.00 miFair73°F62°F69%1017.3 hPa
Beaufort County Airport, SC12 mi46 minSSW 10 G 147.00 miFair75°F62°F65%1016.6 hPa
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC14 mi45 minSSE 910.00 miA Few Clouds81°F66°F61%1016.3 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA24 mi48 minSW 9 G 1910.00 miA Few Clouds82°F60°F47%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHXD

Wind History from HXD (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN8NE4CalmCalmCalmNE5NE5NE4N3NE6365
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Tide / Current Tables for Victoria Bluff, South Carolina
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Victoria Bluff
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:57 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:29 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:26 AM EST     8.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:28 PM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:46 PM EST     7.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-0.10.523.95.87.48.28.17.15.33.21.40.40.41.32.94.566.97.16.55.13.1

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:03 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:45 AM EST     2.28 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:29 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:22 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:23 AM EST     -2.04 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:48 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:17 PM EST     1.84 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:52 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:41 PM EST     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-0.11.22.12.31.91.20.4-0.7-1.6-2-2-1.7-0.90.21.31.81.71.30.7-0.1-1.1-1.7-1.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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