Thursday, July2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shell Point, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:35PM Thursday July 2, 2020 7:09 PM EDT (23:09 UTC) Moonrise 5:18PMMoonset 2:59AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 345 Pm Edt Thu Jul 2 2020
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms this evening.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 345 Pm Edt Thu Jul 2 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A stationary front will linger over or near the area into this weekend. A low pressure system could then impact the area early next week, followed by unsettled weather for the remainder of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shell Point, SC
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location: 32.29, -80.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 022027 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 427 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. A stationary front will linger over or near the area into this weekend. A low pressure system could then impact the area early next week, followed by unsettled weather for the remainder of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. This Evening and Tonight: The mid/upper lvls will consist of a trough of low pressure extending south along the Eastern Seaboard while a ridge of high pressure prevails across the Central United States. At the sfc, a weak front will remain draped across the area, perhaps slowly shifting into southern areas early tonight. Subtle waves of energy along the base of the mid/upper lvl trough are expected to shift across the front, which in combination with any seabreeze circulation shifting inland late will provide enhanced convergence and the continuation of convection into evening hours. At this time, the severe weather threat will remain low across the area, but a few stronger thunderstorms and/or isolated severe thunderstorm are possible given MLCAPE between 1500-2000 J/kg and DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg as drier mid-lvl air shifts into the region from the northwest. Should a strong and/or severe thunderstorm develop, the main concern will be damaging wind gusts.

Overnight, a more pronounced area of low pressure should form offshore as the bulk of mid-lvl energy/shortwave activity shifts over the Atlantic. Few to scattered thunderstorms will fade quickly due to the loss of daytime heating. All areas should then remain dry for the second half of the night. Decreasing cloud cover, light or calm winds and wet grounds will promote the formation of patchy fog late, with the best chances occurring across inland locations of South Carolina. Overnight lows should range in the low 70s inland to mid/upper 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. Friday and Saturday: The mid-levels will consist of a trough off the East Coast, a weak low over the Southeast, and a ridge over the Central U.S. Friday morning. The trough is forecasted to move further offshore through Saturday. Meanwhile, the weak low should persist near the Lower MS Valley, which will hold the aforementioned ridge to the west. At the surface, a stationary front oriented from west to east will be located to our south, near the GA/FL border. Only minor shifts in the location are expected both days. The greatest moisture (PWATs exceeding 2") will be to our south, along the front. Across our area the PWATs should reach ~1.5" both days, which is a bit below normal for this time of year. Likewise, less instability will be in place than we would expect for this time of year. The result will be a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms south of the Savannah River each afternoon, with this activity dissipating in the evening, leading to a dry night. North of the Savannah River should be mainly dry. The severe risk is low. Temperatures should be slightly above normal.

Sunday: Weak mid-level low pressure will hover over the Southeast. Meanwhile, a stationary front near the FL/GA border will slowly meander to the north. Moisture and instability associated with the front will also shift to the north. There are some differences in the models regarding the shower/thunderstorm potential. Though, it does appear to be at or above climatology. Hence, we generally have high end chance POPs. The severe risk may also be a bit higher, but those details will need to be ironed out as this time period gets closer. Temperatures may be slightly below normal due to the showers.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Low to moderate confidence this period with much depending on the evolution of weak low pressure over or near the area early in the period, mainly Monday and Tuesday. At this point we think the chance of severe weather/flash flooding will be low. The best risk for flash flooding is likely to be in coastal flood-prone areas like Downtown Charleston around times of high tide. High temperatures should be near to below normal, likely coolest on Monday, while low temperatures likely stay above normal.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Generally VFR conditions will prevail at both CHS and SAV terminals through 18Z Friday. However, few to scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area this afternoon and potentially impact the terminals this afternoon into early evening hours. Tempo MVFR conditions are possible at either terminal, but have been included in the CHS taf only between 18-21Z thus far.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR through Saturday. Periodic flight restrictions are expected due to afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms starting on Sunday.

MARINE. This Evening and Tonight: A broad area of low pressure will begin to shift off the Southeast coast near a slow moving/stalling front, favoring southwest winds at or below 10 kts, eventually turning more north late with any weak fropa in its wake. Seas will generally range between 1-2 across nearshore waters and 2-3 across offshore Georgia waters.

A stationary front will linger over or near the waters into this weekend, causing winds and seas to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A low pressure system could then impact the area early next week. There is some uncertainty regarding the strength and the track of the low, but it appears the waters won't need any advisories.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Positive tidal departures will continue through the evening, leading to the risk for shallow salt water flooding with the 630-700 pm high tide over parts of the South Carolina coast, mainly in and near downtown Charleston. A Coastal Flood Advisory has therefore been issued between 5-8 PM this evening along Charleston, Colleton and Beaufort counties for water levels up to 7.0-7.2 MLLW.

Astronomical influences will make tides higher than normal into early next week and a potential low pressure system early next week could cause even higher tides. At this time we think the best chance of mainly minor coastal flooding will be along the South Carolina coast around the times of the evening high tides. Coastal Flood Advisories could be required. Furthermore, the risk for heavy rain will only add to any tidal flooding.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ048>050. MARINE . None.

NEAR TERM . DPB SHORT TERM . MS LONG TERM . RJB AVIATION . DPB/MS MARINE . DPB/MS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 18 mi52 min W 5.1 G 7 80°F 82°F1011.4 hPa
41033 21 mi62 min NW 5.8 G 7.8 86°F 84°F1010.3 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 26 mi85 min WSW 1.9 89°F 1010 hPa76°F
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 56 mi70 min WNW 5.1 G 7 82°F 1011 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC7 mi80 minN 510.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity86°F73°F66%1010.8 hPa
Beaufort County Airport, SC12 mi75 minno data7.00 miFair88°F73°F62%1010.2 hPa
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC14 mi74 minW 610.00 miFair91°F73°F57%1010.3 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA24 mi77 minS 610.00 miThunderstorm82°F75°F82%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHXD

Wind History from HXD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5SW5W5CalmSW3SW45
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45CalmW4CalmSW3W6N5N8N8N8W7W7W10W10W10
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2 days agoN5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW3Calm3N5N5N5N5NW5W6W6W10W7W8W8SW5S5

Tide / Current Tables for Victoria Bluff, South Carolina
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Victoria Bluff
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:07 AM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:19 AM EDT     7.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:12 PM EDT     -0.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:01 PM EDT     9.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.5-0.20.21.63.45.26.67.37.1641.80.1-0.8-0.40.92.95.17.18.59.18.66.94.5

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:29 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:54 AM EDT     1.83 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:53 AM EDT     -1.93 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:27 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:16 PM EDT     2.26 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:46 PM EDT     -2.44 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.9-0.70.71.61.81.61.20.4-0.6-1.4-1.8-1.9-1.6-0.60.71.82.22.21.91.30.3-0.9-1.7-2.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.