Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shell Point, SC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The forecast is on track. No meaningful changes were needed for the sunrise update.

Today: Strong subtropical ridging will intensify further today as the ridge tries to cut off into a 585 dam upper level (500 hPa) anticyclone centered just offshore of the Southeast U.S.
coast. The surface positioned between Bermuda and the North Carolina Outer Banks will extend west/southwest into Georgia and South Carolina. This synoptic pattern will favor strong subsidence with the thermodynamic environment unsupportive of convection. Warm and dry conditions will prevail as a result with highs poised to highs in the mid-upper 80s with conditions across the coastal corridor remaining a bit cooler where a progressive pure sea breeze circulation will move through. Highs at the beaches will only warm into the mid 70s. Gusty winds will spread inland through the afternoon as the sea breeze circulation propagates steadily inland. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies will prevail with only some shallow cumulus and passing cirrus aloft contributing to the net amount of cloud cover.

Tonight: The synoptic pattern will remain unchanged. The boundary layer should decouple late this evening into the early morning hours Thursday once the sea breeze circulation exits to the west and eventually breaks down. Conditions will favor another round of modest radiational cooling within a calm/light surface wind field, although some passing cirrus aloft may limit it somewhat compared to previous mornings. Lows were trended cooler, ranging from the mid-upper 50s inland to the upper 60s/near 70 at the beaches. Some spots in the Francis Marion National Forest could be a bit cooler.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The upper ridge axis will remain east of the area Thursday into Friday while strong Atlantic high pressure prevails. Dry conditions expected on Thursday with above normal temps. Highs across inland areas will again reach the middle 80s, while coastal locales top out in the mid to upper 70s. Moisture will increase on Friday and a shortwave will move through inland areas during the afternoon. However, mid-level capping should limit the potential for convection during the day.

A cold front will sag into the area late Saturday, likely bringing at least scattered showers and tstms.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
There is considerable forecast uncertainty late weekend through early next week. Models are split on whether the cold front will fully clear the area or whether it will linger nearby during this period. This will have a significant impact on rain chances. We used the National Blend of Models PoPs which feature 20-30% during the period. Temps will be near normal or even a few degrees below.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
30/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR will prevail through 12z Thursday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and tstms expected Saturday afternoon/evening. Low ceilings possible Saturday night into Sunday as a front sags into the area.

MARINE
Through Tonight: Quiet conditions will persist at Atlantic high pressure extends into the coastal waters resulting in a southerly wind regime. Speeds will remain less that 15 kt into tonight, but may be closer to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the Charleston Harbor and near the land/sea interface this afternoon as the sea breeze forms and moves inland. Seas will average 2-3 ft.

Thursday through Monday: Southerly flow at less than 15 kt expected Thursday through Saturday. Winds will shift to NE by Sunday behind a cold front with some increase in speeds. Seas expected to start building early next week with the potential for marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.