Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shell Point, SC
May 14, 2024 8:56 AM EDT (12:56 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:23 AM Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 11:14 AM Moonset 12:47 AM |
AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 641 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Today - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming sw this afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds. Showers likely this morning. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning.
Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Thu - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 7 seconds and W 2 ft at 3 seconds.
Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds and sw 1 foot at 4 seconds.
Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 641 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - A warm front will lift northward through the area this morning, followed by a cold front from the west tonight. High pressure will return to the area by Thursday, followed by another storm system this weekend.
Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 141207 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 807 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front will lift northward through the area this morning, followed by a cold front from the west tonight. High pressure will return to the area by Thursday, followed by another storm system this weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Today: A complex of thunderstorms will continue to track east across southern Georgia and northern Florida early this morning, while a warm front begins to lift north across the region, before eventually clearing the local area to the north by late morning. While activity across northern Florida should stay south of the Altamaha River initially, the northern extent could impact far southern zones along the southeast Georgia coast a few hours after daybreak and bring the potential for a few stronger and perhaps severe thunderstorms as the warm front pivots north across the area.
Along the warm front, thunderstorms will likely develop and progress north through late morning, with highest chances of severe weather occurrence closer to the southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina coast where the axis of greatest instability crosses over land from the Atlantic. With the morning activity, the severe threat will likely be tied to the environment along and near the front itself, where modest MLCAPE and veering wind profiles reside. Damaging winds and a low-end tornado threat are the primary concerns during morning hours. However, enhanced convergence associated with the front could also lead to a brief window of localized heavy downpours, resulting in 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall along the southeast South Carolina coast.
As the warm front shifts north of the Santee River and the thunderstorm complex to the south pushes across coastal waters, there will likely be a lull of precip activity early to mid afternoon, as it will take some time for the airmass to recover locally despite becoming warm-sectored for much of the day. Latest guidance does indicate a fairly large shift in lowering overall precip coverage during this time frame, thus chances of precip have been reduced for much of the afternoon. However, there will still be a risk for isolated severe thunderstorms heading into mid-late afternoon hours, that could very well persist into early evening hours as another round of h5 shortwave energy rounds the southeast periphery of the mid-upper lvl trough placed to our northwest.
Enhanced unidirectional wind fields along with some mid-lvl drying leading to higher DCAPE suggests a few thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and/or perhaps some small hail.
Tonight: Although latest guidance does suggest a fairly large trend downward in precip coverage this evening, the atmosphere should remain somewhat favorable for a low-end risk of strong and/or isolated severe thunderstorms for a few hours after sunset well in advance of a cold front approaching from the west late. Instability will become limited by late evening, especially across southeast South Carolina, but could linger across southeast Georgia after midnight. Here additional showers and thunderstorms that develop west of the region could eventually push into far southern zones, before shifting offshore. Although severe weather is not expected based on the timing of what could be another thunderstorm complex nearing the area, the threat will remain non-zero until the cold front pushes through the area and offshore late. Overnight temps will remain mild until fropa occurs with lows generally expected to range in the mid 60s inland to upper 60s/around 70 near the coast.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A mid-level low pressure and it's associated surface low pressure will be positioned over the Mid-Atlantic states to start Wednesday This feature will slip off the East Coast Wednesday night into Thursday. A secondary, reinforcing cold front is forecast to push through the region early in the morning on Thursday as the upper level feature moves offshore. In the presence of the upper level low, there will likely be enough forcing to trigger an isolated to scattered shower or thunderstorm through the day on Wednesday, tapering off in the evening to overnight hours. Dry conditions are then expected Thursday as high pressure briefly builds in at the surface. A shortwave trough aloft approaching from the west on Friday will then trigger isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, with PWATs increasing to 1.5+ inches Friday afternoon.
High temperatures through the short term period will generally be in the mid to upper 80s with mild overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Friday night into Saturday a mid-level trough will push off of the Mid-Atlantic coast, with a surface cold front sweeping through the region. Behind the departing trough northwesterly flow aloft will prevail before another shortwave trough ripples across the southeastern states on Monday. Between the upper level features and the cold front at the surface the extended forecast will feature PoPs almost every day as the pattern remains rather unsettled. Temperatures are expected to be above normal.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A complex of showers/thunderstorms will shift into the area early this morning, likely impacting the SAV terminal by 13Z and persisting to around 15Z initially. MVFR conditions will be ongoing at SAV at well, but once thunderstorms reach the terminal tempo IFR conditions are likely. Further north, MVFR conditions should begin to impact CHS/JZI within the next 1-2 hours, then persist through 15Z as showers and potentially thunderstorms impact the terminals. Conditions will improve to VFR at all terminals by early afternoon, once a warm front quickly advances north of the region. However, tempo MVFR conditions can not be ruled out at the terminals this afternoon should additional showers and/or thunderstorms develop late day.
Expect prevailing VFR conditions at all terminals overnight.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR through the end of the week, when showers and thunderstorms could bring restrictions to terminals into the weekend.
MARINE
Today and Tonight: South-southeast winds and seas will remain elevated across local waters this morning as a warm front lifts north and eventually leaves the area by early afternoon. Small Craft Advisories will be in place across offshore Georgia waters until 2 PM and across nearshore waters along the Charleston County coast for much of the day, mainly due to seas around 6 ft. Otherwise, expected south-southeast winds upwards to 15-20 kt across local waters turning southwest this afternoon and remaining at or below 15 kt while the pressure gradient weakens. Heading into early evening, winds/seas are expected to remain below advisory levels across all waters, but a slight uptick in south-southwest winds (15-20 kt) is anticipated with the approach of a cold front late. Seas should range between 2-4 ft nearshore to 3-5 ft across offshore Georgia waters overnight.
Wednesday through Sunday: All Small Craft Advisory conditions should be over to start Wednesday, with seas averaging 3 to 5 ft and SW winds 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. A cold front is expected to push through the region on Wednesday, shifting the SW winds to the NW by Thursday, remaining around 15 knots. The remainder of the period is expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria, with seas averaging 2 to 4 ft and winds generally 10 to 15 knots.
Rip Currents: Strong onshore winds along with 2-3 ft swell every 6-7 seconds favors a Moderate Risk of rip currents along all beaches today.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ374.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 807 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front will lift northward through the area this morning, followed by a cold front from the west tonight. High pressure will return to the area by Thursday, followed by another storm system this weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Today: A complex of thunderstorms will continue to track east across southern Georgia and northern Florida early this morning, while a warm front begins to lift north across the region, before eventually clearing the local area to the north by late morning. While activity across northern Florida should stay south of the Altamaha River initially, the northern extent could impact far southern zones along the southeast Georgia coast a few hours after daybreak and bring the potential for a few stronger and perhaps severe thunderstorms as the warm front pivots north across the area.
Along the warm front, thunderstorms will likely develop and progress north through late morning, with highest chances of severe weather occurrence closer to the southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina coast where the axis of greatest instability crosses over land from the Atlantic. With the morning activity, the severe threat will likely be tied to the environment along and near the front itself, where modest MLCAPE and veering wind profiles reside. Damaging winds and a low-end tornado threat are the primary concerns during morning hours. However, enhanced convergence associated with the front could also lead to a brief window of localized heavy downpours, resulting in 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall along the southeast South Carolina coast.
As the warm front shifts north of the Santee River and the thunderstorm complex to the south pushes across coastal waters, there will likely be a lull of precip activity early to mid afternoon, as it will take some time for the airmass to recover locally despite becoming warm-sectored for much of the day. Latest guidance does indicate a fairly large shift in lowering overall precip coverage during this time frame, thus chances of precip have been reduced for much of the afternoon. However, there will still be a risk for isolated severe thunderstorms heading into mid-late afternoon hours, that could very well persist into early evening hours as another round of h5 shortwave energy rounds the southeast periphery of the mid-upper lvl trough placed to our northwest.
Enhanced unidirectional wind fields along with some mid-lvl drying leading to higher DCAPE suggests a few thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and/or perhaps some small hail.
Tonight: Although latest guidance does suggest a fairly large trend downward in precip coverage this evening, the atmosphere should remain somewhat favorable for a low-end risk of strong and/or isolated severe thunderstorms for a few hours after sunset well in advance of a cold front approaching from the west late. Instability will become limited by late evening, especially across southeast South Carolina, but could linger across southeast Georgia after midnight. Here additional showers and thunderstorms that develop west of the region could eventually push into far southern zones, before shifting offshore. Although severe weather is not expected based on the timing of what could be another thunderstorm complex nearing the area, the threat will remain non-zero until the cold front pushes through the area and offshore late. Overnight temps will remain mild until fropa occurs with lows generally expected to range in the mid 60s inland to upper 60s/around 70 near the coast.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A mid-level low pressure and it's associated surface low pressure will be positioned over the Mid-Atlantic states to start Wednesday This feature will slip off the East Coast Wednesday night into Thursday. A secondary, reinforcing cold front is forecast to push through the region early in the morning on Thursday as the upper level feature moves offshore. In the presence of the upper level low, there will likely be enough forcing to trigger an isolated to scattered shower or thunderstorm through the day on Wednesday, tapering off in the evening to overnight hours. Dry conditions are then expected Thursday as high pressure briefly builds in at the surface. A shortwave trough aloft approaching from the west on Friday will then trigger isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, with PWATs increasing to 1.5+ inches Friday afternoon.
High temperatures through the short term period will generally be in the mid to upper 80s with mild overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Friday night into Saturday a mid-level trough will push off of the Mid-Atlantic coast, with a surface cold front sweeping through the region. Behind the departing trough northwesterly flow aloft will prevail before another shortwave trough ripples across the southeastern states on Monday. Between the upper level features and the cold front at the surface the extended forecast will feature PoPs almost every day as the pattern remains rather unsettled. Temperatures are expected to be above normal.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A complex of showers/thunderstorms will shift into the area early this morning, likely impacting the SAV terminal by 13Z and persisting to around 15Z initially. MVFR conditions will be ongoing at SAV at well, but once thunderstorms reach the terminal tempo IFR conditions are likely. Further north, MVFR conditions should begin to impact CHS/JZI within the next 1-2 hours, then persist through 15Z as showers and potentially thunderstorms impact the terminals. Conditions will improve to VFR at all terminals by early afternoon, once a warm front quickly advances north of the region. However, tempo MVFR conditions can not be ruled out at the terminals this afternoon should additional showers and/or thunderstorms develop late day.
Expect prevailing VFR conditions at all terminals overnight.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR through the end of the week, when showers and thunderstorms could bring restrictions to terminals into the weekend.
MARINE
Today and Tonight: South-southeast winds and seas will remain elevated across local waters this morning as a warm front lifts north and eventually leaves the area by early afternoon. Small Craft Advisories will be in place across offshore Georgia waters until 2 PM and across nearshore waters along the Charleston County coast for much of the day, mainly due to seas around 6 ft. Otherwise, expected south-southeast winds upwards to 15-20 kt across local waters turning southwest this afternoon and remaining at or below 15 kt while the pressure gradient weakens. Heading into early evening, winds/seas are expected to remain below advisory levels across all waters, but a slight uptick in south-southwest winds (15-20 kt) is anticipated with the approach of a cold front late. Seas should range between 2-4 ft nearshore to 3-5 ft across offshore Georgia waters overnight.
Wednesday through Sunday: All Small Craft Advisory conditions should be over to start Wednesday, with seas averaging 3 to 5 ft and SW winds 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. A cold front is expected to push through the region on Wednesday, shifting the SW winds to the NW by Thursday, remaining around 15 knots. The remainder of the period is expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria, with seas averaging 2 to 4 ft and winds generally 10 to 15 knots.
Rip Currents: Strong onshore winds along with 2-3 ft swell every 6-7 seconds favors a Moderate Risk of rip currents along all beaches today.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ374.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA | 18 mi | 56 min | SSW 6G | 75°F | 75°F | 29.88 | ||
| 41067 | 21 mi | 71 min | 75°F | 5 ft | ||||
| ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC | 26 mi | 71 min | SE 1 | 73°F | 29.89 | 70°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHXD HILTON HEAD,SC | 7 sm | 66 min | S 06G11 | 8 sm | Overcast | 75°F | 72°F | 89% | 29.89 | |
| KARW BEAUFORT COUNTY,SC | 12 sm | 21 min | SSE 04 | 7 sm | Overcast | 73°F | 66°F | 78% | 29.88 | |
| KNBC BEAUFORT MCAS /MERRITT FIELD/,SC | 14 sm | 60 min | SSE 04 | 7 sm | Overcast | 75°F | 72°F | 89% | 29.88 | |
| KSAV SAVANNAH/HILTON HEAD INTL,GA | 24 sm | 63 min | SSE 10 | 10 sm | Overcast | 75°F | 70°F | 83% | 29.87 |
Victoria Bluff
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:47 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 02:33 AM EDT 7.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:25 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:38 AM EDT 1.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:13 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:15 PM EDT 6.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:55 PM EDT 1.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:47 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 02:33 AM EDT 7.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:25 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:38 AM EDT 1.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:13 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:15 PM EDT 6.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:55 PM EDT 1.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Victoria Bluff, South Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 5.3 |
| 1 am |
| 6.5 |
| 2 am |
| 7.1 |
| 3 am |
| 7.2 |
| 4 am |
| 6.5 |
| 5 am |
| 5.2 |
| 6 am |
| 3.6 |
| 7 am |
| 2.2 |
| 8 am |
| 1.3 |
| 9 am |
| 1.2 |
| 10 am |
| 1.8 |
| 11 am |
| 2.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 5.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 6.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 6 |
| 5 pm |
| 5.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 4 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.7 |
Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:47 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 02:47 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:12 AM EDT -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:26 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:01 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:35 AM EDT 1.46 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:14 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:16 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:42 PM EDT -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:47 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 02:47 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:12 AM EDT -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:26 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:01 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:35 AM EDT 1.46 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:14 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:16 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:42 PM EDT -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 1.7 |
| 1 am |
| 1.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| -0.2 |
| 4 am |
| -1.1 |
| 5 am |
| -1.6 |
| 6 am |
| -1.7 |
| 7 am |
| -1.6 |
| 8 am |
| -1 |
| 9 am |
| -0 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 1.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 6 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 8 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.5 |
Charleston, SC,
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