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FXUS64 KFWD 021117 AAA AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 517 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: General trends still remain the same below. Mid-upper cloud decks may hang around a bit longer along/E of I-35, so adjusted highs down a tad. Otherwise, rest of trends by this evening and into Sunday still look on track.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion: /This Weekend/

A little patchy fog, maybe isolated dense fog may evolve within a clear slot between some enhancing ciro and alto stratus canopies that are associated with both branches of very strong upper jet max over the Southern Plains. I think the overall potential is fairly low, but with dew points remaining slight elevated in the upper 30s/low 40s, a few areas in those clear slots may drop to saturation for some fog here and there by daybreak this morning.

A strong shortwave trough seen currently swinging through the Southern Rockies will move toward the forecast area late this morning and swing across through the afternoon hours. The dynamics look quite strong associated with this system and the correlating upper jet maximums in excess of 125 kt to correlate with a decent slug of elevated moisture noted on RAP soundings between 750mb- 550mb that a few sprinkles, or isolated showers could evolve across our Big Country/far northwest counties around midday that combined with mid level lapse rates steepening to near 7 deg C/km that even a random rumble of thunder can't be ruled out. The one issue in the lower levels will be the increasing strong and veered flow in the lower levels that leads me to believe any measurable rainfall would be spotty or very light, with a few sprinkles traversing east across eastern North Texas during the afternoon hours in associated with this strong mid level disturbance. It will be a which one wins out, so it could just be virga.

The increasing westerly and southwesterly winds across the western half of the area and timing of the mid-upper level cloud canopy makes forecasting high temperatures this afternoon a bit challenging. For now, NBM looks good in the west where veered surface winds and clearing occur in time for max heating in the early-mid afternoon hours. I did lower highs across our Northeast and East Texas areas where these elevated cloud decks will persist into the afternoon, especially in the Northeast where any virga or sprinkles may result in some cooling from wet-bulb processes.

Skies mostly clear out overnight outside of possibly our far southeast counties. However, veered surface winds up to 10 mph or possibly stronger in the West should keep lows contained mostly between 40-45 degrees outside of the far northern counties where mid-upper 30s will likely occur where some relatively cooler and drier air will reside. Mostly sunny and breezy west/southwesterly winds will help many areas surpass the 70 degree mark outside of of my Red River areas into the northeast counties where mid-upper 60s will occur with a little weaker downslope component to the surface winds.

05/Marty

LONG TERM
/Issued 240 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023/ /Sunday Night and Beyond/

Although the synoptic pattern will remain quite progressive with several upper-level disturbances and a couple of fronts pushing into North and Central Texas next week, the forecast will remain largely rain-free through the end of the work week due to a very dry airmass remaining anchored over the Southern Plains. The first of those dry frontal passages will occur Sunday night bringing no more than a northerly wind shift and slightly cooler temperatures on Monday. Expect temperatures to peak in the low to mid 60s across much of the region Monday afternoon.

Southerly winds will briefly return on Tuesday as surface high- pressure shifts to the east allowing for a quick warm-up (highs in the mid 60s to low 70s) ahead of the next front expected to push into North Texas the latter half of Tuesday into Tuesday night.
This frontal passage will drop temperatures back a few degrees Wednesday afternoon, primarily across North Texas. More extensive moisture return will re-establish across the region late Wednesday into the end of the work week as surface low pressure develops in the Plains ahead of broad west coast troughing. Low chances for light rain could return to the forecast across our southeastern zones as soon as Friday as current guidance suggests a subtle shortwave may eject over Texas ahead of the parent trough positioned over California. More widespread rain chances are possible later next weekend, as the aforementioned storm system looks to slide into the Plains during the Saturday (12/9) to Sunday (12/10) time frame.

Langfeld

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12z TAFs/

Main challenges will be brief potential for MVFR/BR vsbys through 14z and wind shifts through 00z Sunday.

Otherwise, VFR with BKN-OVC mid-high level cigs at D10 terminals through early afternoon, clearing from the west the remainder of the afternoon. Any --RA or virga is too low of confidence to mention in current TAFs and will let later forecasts adjust as needed.

05/Marty


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 44 70 41 62 / 5 0 0 0 0 Waco 66 40 70 43 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 57 37 64 38 59 / 10 0 0 0 0 Denton 63 37 68 36 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 McKinney 62 38 70 37 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dallas 64 44 70 42 61 / 5 0 0 0 0 Terrell 61 40 67 39 60 / 5 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 63 43 69 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 67 41 71 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 70 39 73 37 64 / 10 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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