Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Payne Springs, TX

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Before we get to the active weather tomorrow tomorrow, a dryline will bring a low chance for storms this evening across western North TX, with a an isolated storm or two possibly developing across the eastern Panhandle/western OK between ~5-7 PM and then shifting southeast. There is a 10-20% chance this activity is able to survive as it moves southeast into our Red River counties.
The severe threat cannot be ruled out, but this activity is expected to be on a weakening trend and small hail is likely to be the main threat.

Sunday/Sunday Night: Some uncertainty still exists with tomorrow's storm evolution. The cold front should advance through the TX/OK Panhandles late tonight, moving through Oklahoma into the early morning hours. As this occurs, a complex of thunderstorms are expected to develop across Oklahoma. High res guidance is focusing the area of storms primarily on an eastward motion through Central OK into Arkansas where there is stronger low level flow and moisture combined with a compact upper shortwave moving through, rather than a S/SE trajectory more along the front.

Because of the uncertainty, the extent of the severe threat and the timing across North Texas is harder to narrow down at this point, but not much has changed in the overall forecast. If the scenario occurs where this complex avoids North TX mostly or altogether and gets ahead of the front, this would result in limited or no contamination in terms of available instability when the front actually moves through. The most likely area to be impacted in the mid to late morning with this complex (if it occurs in our area) would be near/east of I-35 and north of HWY 380/I-30.
Severe weather is unlikely with this activity but storms could become strong with mainly a wind threat and a lower hail threat.

The morning complex will need to be closely watched for any changes, but forecast consensus still narrows in on the I-20 corridor in the afternoon for development (or potential reintensification for storms if morning storms occur east of I-35). Instability ticks up to ~2,000-3000 J/kg in the moist warm sector ahead of the front, with little or no capping in place to inhibit development as daytime heating commences. Initially discrete storms will have a more significant hail threat as well as a low tornado threat, in addition to the potential for damaging winds. The most likely timing with this is around 1-3 PM, with discrete storms developing into clusters with the southward moving front. These multicell clusters will likely develop within a couple of hours of initiation, with no inhibition and strong enough instability to promote rapid development of updrafts. The storm interactions with this should then temper the potential for very large hail (> 2"), but severe hail (1" or greater) will still be possible with these clusters. Of more notable concern, an enhanced wind threat looks to evolve with steep low level lapse rates and an environment favorable for cold pool mergers supporting a more widespread damaging wind potential. Upscale growth will continue into the late evening as storms shift into Central TX, with the dominant threat still damaging winds.

Behind the front, lingering ascent and moisture will support scattered showers and storms across North TX through the late evening, after the main storms have moved through. These storms will be capable of an isolated hail threat with modest instability still in place and lapse rates of ~7-7.5 C/km. In terms of heavy rain, efficient rain rates greater than an inch per hour look to develop for parts of the area with the upscale growth. This may be enhanced in parts of Central TX as some of the guidance looks to orient the line more west-east in Central TX which would support training of storms as the entire line propagates south.
The overall threat isn't significant, but locally higher amounts of 2-4" will be possible in any areas that see slower moving storms or repeated development. Storms will shift south of the area overnight, with lingering precip Monday morning (20-30%) in eastern Central TX.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

After storms exit, a much quieter week is expected to follow. Monday will feature cooler conditions behind the front with highs around 5 to 10 degrees lower than Sunday. Ridging will expand aloft across the West, impinging on the Southern Plains by midweek. This will result in a warming trend through Wednesday, climbing into the mid 80s/low 90s for most. Highs will be fairly stagnant through the end of the week with little change in the overall pattern. Some guidance is showing the ridge breaking down by the end of the week, but there is little agreement overall with no rain chances in the forecast through Friday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through early Sunday afternoon at all airports with just a few clouds. GFS continues to show MVFR cigs in D10 on Sunday morning, but this is being discounted based on other guidance. Morning SHRA/TSRA should stay north/east of D10 airports, but late Sunday afternoon SHRA/TSRA are likely to impact all D10 airports. Therefore have added a tempo group for IFR conditions with TSRA and gusts to 40 kts to all D10 airports from 10/22-11/00Z. Winds will become southeast 5-10 knots tonight then easterly on Sunday before a fropa brings north winds Sunday evening.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Limited spotter activation may be requested Sunday across the entire region. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 85 62 77 / 0 80 70 10 Waco 69 88 64 77 / 0 40 80 10 Paris 64 78 60 75 / 10 90 50 10 Denton 68 82 59 77 / 10 80 50 10 McKinney 68 81 61 77 / 10 80 50 10 Dallas 70 86 63 78 / 0 80 70 10 Terrell 67 84 62 76 / 0 80 60 10 Corsicana 69 88 65 78 / 0 50 80 20 Temple 70 89 65 78 / 0 20 90 10 Mineral Wells 67 86 58 77 / 10 80 80 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.