Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Payne Springs, TX

SHORT TERM
/Issued 107 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ /Today into Tonight/

Another quiet night across North and Central Texas, albeit a bit windier than we have seen lately thanks to a stout 40+ kt LLJ per radars. The stronger winds tonight should keep fog minimal, but another round of low clouds will spread across most of the area and remain through midday before scattering out in the afternoon.
Despite the clouds, another warm day in the 80s is anticipated areawide.

By late afternoon and especially into Monday evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline in West Texas and move northeast towards our northwest counties. This activity should weaken as it enters our forecast area due to a very strong cap shown on forecast soundings. Even so, some activity may remain intense as MLCAPE will be quite high at 2500 J/Kg with strong low and deep layer shear - and a couple storms may contain hail or high winds northwest of the Metroplex.
Although bulk of thunderstorm activity is anticipated to remain west and north of DFW, some rain and a few non-severe storms will still be possible this evening, so any outdoor activities should be aware of this potential. A few showers may continue overnight into early Tuesday as well across North Texas, but overall activity is expected to diminish with time.

Shamburger

LONG TERM
/Issued 324 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ /Tuesday Through This Weekend/

Following the Monday night/early Tuesday activity, most of Tuesday should be quiet across the region. A cold front will slow to a crawl in the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma early in the day, with the dryline still lingering to our west. Both of these boundaries will serve as a focus for storm development as early as Tuesday afternoon, with widespread convection becoming increasing likely Tuesday evening/overnight. The initial convective mode will likely be discrete supercells, but with storm motion vectors nearly parallel to the dryline, this activity should grow upscale into a MCS fairly quickly. The severe threat will be highest with any discrete storms, with large hail and damaging winds expected to be the primary threats. Once this activity transitions to a MCS, severe wind gusts would become the primary hazard, with isolated severe hail possible in any stronger cores.

Our best potential for strong to severe storms is still expected to be on Wednesday. Surface cyclogenesis will take place in West Texas, and the seemingly permanent dryline to our west will finally mix east, entering western portions of the forecast area during the afternoon. Despite the presence of morning convection, there is good consensus that we should moderately destabilize during the afternoon, with a corridor of 2000-3000+ J/kg of SBCAPE developing across the region. Storms are expected to develop during the afternoon, coincident with destabilization and the arrival of the dryline, though there are still some slight timing discrepancies in the latest guidance overnight. Discrete supercells will once again be the initial storm mode, but these should evolve into clusters of storms with possible upscale growth into an MCS. These storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat will be highest with the initial discrete supercells.

Flooding will become an increasing concern Tuesday and especially Wednesday, and portions of northeast Texas are now outlooked in a Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) for flash flooding on Wednesday by the WPC. Given there are still some timing discrepancies with the multiple rounds of heavy rain, a Flood Watch will not be issued tonight, but this will be revisited later today. Widespread rainfall totals through Wednesday will be between 1.5" and 2.5" for North Texas and portions of Central Texas. These areas have a 10% chance of seeing up to 4" of rainfall, but this high-end total will likely go up as high-res guidance gets a better handle on the location and magnitude of the heaviest precipitation.

Beyond the mid-week time period, a weak cold front will slide through the area on Thursday, likely stalling somewhere in Central/Southeast Texas. The front will have little effect on our sensible weather, other than a temporary (albeit weak) north wind. Scattered showers and storms will be possible on a daily basis through the weekend as multiple upper level disturbances move overhead with the frontal zone still lingering in or near the forecast area. There could be a potential for a few strong thunderstorms in North Texas Thursday night, with perhaps another round of strong to severe storms in Central Texas on Friday.
However, specific threat areas and hazards are uncertain at this time. Additional rounds of storms and heavy rainfall are possible through the weekend, with perhaps a better set up for organized severe storms during the first half of next week. Continue to monitor the forecast!

Barnes

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

MVFR cigs have spread across airports early this morning, and these cigs should continue through 17Z before returning to VFR.
Some showers may impact Metroplex airports this evening and have added a VCSH mention for now based on the HRRR model. Another round of MVFR cigs is expected on Tuesday morning. Gusty south to southeast winds will continue through the TAF period with gusts up to 30 knots at times.

Shamburger

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not likely today, but any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 69 84 68 80 / 5 20 30 50 100 Waco 85 69 85 68 82 / 5 5 5 20 90 Paris 82 67 82 65 79 / 5 5 20 30 90 Denton 83 66 83 64 77 / 5 30 40 60 100 McKinney 83 68 83 66 77 / 5 20 30 40 90 Dallas 85 69 84 68 80 / 5 20 20 40 100 Terrell 83 68 84 67 81 / 5 10 10 20 90 Corsicana 85 70 86 70 83 / 5 5 5 10 90 Temple 87 69 87 68 85 / 5 5 5 10 80 Mineral Wells 87 66 85 65 80 / 10 30 40 60 90

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.