Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Payne Springs, TX
May 31, 2024 8:55 PM CDT (01:55 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:19 AM Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 1:25 AM Moonset 1:21 PM |
Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 312331 AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 631 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
New Short Term, Aviation
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Saturday Night/
Late afternoon convection has developed just west of the forecast area from Abilene to San Saba on the buoyant side of a CAPE gradient. This residual theta-e boundary is oriented from NW to SE, and convection may attempt to follow this feature southeastward with time, perhaps grazing our far southwestern zones this evening. The greatest severe risk will remain farther to the west outside of the forecast area within the axis of higher instability, but a brief hail/wind threat could accompany any cells that drift farther eastward, likely in the form of left- splitting supercells. This activity is largely expected to wane with loss of heating, although we'll need to keep an eye on the anvil regions of these cells in case isolated new development can occur in Central Texas beneath their cirrus shields.
Later tonight, our attention turns to the northwest where ongoing convection in eastern NM and the TX Panhandle is expected to congeal into a complex. Corfidi vectors favor an ESE progression of MCS activity, but weak low-level inflow in the 925-850 mb layer of just 10-20 kts should preclude this activity from remaining very robust. This complex, or perhaps an associated MCV, should encroach on the northwestern fringes of the forecast area during the predawn hours, with convection waning upon entering North TX. However, a remnant MCV and/or outflow boundary from this complex could serve as a focus for isolated convective redevelopment tomorrow afternoon. We'll maintain a broad swath of 20% storm chances through peak heating tomorrow to account for this possibility. These cells would not have a very favorable environment to work with, and would probably struggle to become strong or severe. Another complex is likely to traverse portions of the Central and Southern Plains Saturday night into Sunday, but its location and track is very uncertain at this stage.
Aside from convective concerns, there is a chance for patchy fog to develop tonight, and this would be most likely across portions of East/Northeast TX. Otherwise, expect a return to seasonable heat and humidity over the weekend with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s while dewpoints hold in the lower 70s. This will yield heat index values in the 95-100 degree range for most areas Saturday afternoon.
-Stalley
LONG TERM
/Issued 244 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ /Sunday Through Next Week/
An unsettled pattern will continue through much of the forecast period, with zonal flow remaining in place through the end of the weekend through much of next week. On and off chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the middle of next week.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible at times as well as convective complexes push into portions of North and Central Texas from the west and north. The threats with these additional rounds of activity will include damaging winds, large hail, and the continued potential for flash flooding. The tornado threat will be low but not zero. This will mostly hinge on the evolution of storms, which will more likely than not move through in the form of clusters. This would increase our potential for damaging winds, and elevated thunderstorms will of course have the potential for severe hail. Any remnant outflow boundaries or surface fronts will serve to increase the tornado potential locally should storms become surface based, but the mass majority of storms should remain elevated as strengthening cold pools dominate the region. That being said, overall confidence in any of this activity remains quite low as model guidance continues to offer a wide range of solutions. The only thing that is certain is this active pattern that we are currently in doesn't seem to be going anywhere any time soon. As has been the case for the last several days, specific timing, coverage, and hazards will be hard to narrow down and may continue to heavily rely on real-time observations and radar/satellite interpretation. Continue to check for updates as the forecast is sure to evolve as we move forward.
The other main talking point with the long term forecast involves the heat that will begin to make its return across the region through the end of next week. Afternoon highs in the 90s with dewpoints in the 70s will allow heat indices to approach 105 degrees. Heat illness will become an increasing concern for those working outside, especially for our vulnerable populations.
Reeves
AVIATION
/NEW/ /00z TAFs/
VFR conditions presently prevail at the TAF sites, with convection ongoing well to the southwest of the airports. This convection over western Central Texas is not expected to directly impact any of the terminals, and will dissipate in a few hours. Overnight, a storm complex originating in the TX Panhandle will move southeastward, possibly entering North Texas prior to sunrise.
There is a very small chance (10%) that this convection could survive into western portions of D10, or at a minimum send an outflow boundary towards the TAF sites resulting in a brief WNW wind shift. Probabilities for this to occur are too low to introduce any of these conditions into the TAFs, and trends will be monitored over the next 6-12 hours in case their inclusion is warranted. Otherwise, there is a brief window when MVFR cigs could affect the TAF sites tomorrow morning, and this would likely occur after sunrise through late morning before scattering to VFR by midday. If a residual boundary or MCV exists from the morning convective complex, it could serve as a focus for isolated thunderstorm activity nearby later in the afternoon.
-Stalley
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 90 73 88 74 / 5 20 10 30 30 Waco 70 88 73 87 74 / 10 20 10 20 20 Paris 66 87 69 86 71 / 5 10 10 40 30 Denton 67 89 71 87 72 / 5 20 10 30 30 McKinney 67 88 71 87 72 / 5 20 10 30 30 Dallas 70 90 73 89 74 / 5 20 10 30 30 Terrell 68 88 71 87 73 / 5 20 10 30 20 Corsicana 71 90 73 89 75 / 5 20 10 30 20 Temple 70 88 73 89 75 / 20 30 10 20 10 Mineral Wells 67 90 72 88 72 / 10 20 20 30 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 631 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
New Short Term, Aviation
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Saturday Night/
Late afternoon convection has developed just west of the forecast area from Abilene to San Saba on the buoyant side of a CAPE gradient. This residual theta-e boundary is oriented from NW to SE, and convection may attempt to follow this feature southeastward with time, perhaps grazing our far southwestern zones this evening. The greatest severe risk will remain farther to the west outside of the forecast area within the axis of higher instability, but a brief hail/wind threat could accompany any cells that drift farther eastward, likely in the form of left- splitting supercells. This activity is largely expected to wane with loss of heating, although we'll need to keep an eye on the anvil regions of these cells in case isolated new development can occur in Central Texas beneath their cirrus shields.
Later tonight, our attention turns to the northwest where ongoing convection in eastern NM and the TX Panhandle is expected to congeal into a complex. Corfidi vectors favor an ESE progression of MCS activity, but weak low-level inflow in the 925-850 mb layer of just 10-20 kts should preclude this activity from remaining very robust. This complex, or perhaps an associated MCV, should encroach on the northwestern fringes of the forecast area during the predawn hours, with convection waning upon entering North TX. However, a remnant MCV and/or outflow boundary from this complex could serve as a focus for isolated convective redevelopment tomorrow afternoon. We'll maintain a broad swath of 20% storm chances through peak heating tomorrow to account for this possibility. These cells would not have a very favorable environment to work with, and would probably struggle to become strong or severe. Another complex is likely to traverse portions of the Central and Southern Plains Saturday night into Sunday, but its location and track is very uncertain at this stage.
Aside from convective concerns, there is a chance for patchy fog to develop tonight, and this would be most likely across portions of East/Northeast TX. Otherwise, expect a return to seasonable heat and humidity over the weekend with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s while dewpoints hold in the lower 70s. This will yield heat index values in the 95-100 degree range for most areas Saturday afternoon.
-Stalley
LONG TERM
/Issued 244 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ /Sunday Through Next Week/
An unsettled pattern will continue through much of the forecast period, with zonal flow remaining in place through the end of the weekend through much of next week. On and off chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the middle of next week.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible at times as well as convective complexes push into portions of North and Central Texas from the west and north. The threats with these additional rounds of activity will include damaging winds, large hail, and the continued potential for flash flooding. The tornado threat will be low but not zero. This will mostly hinge on the evolution of storms, which will more likely than not move through in the form of clusters. This would increase our potential for damaging winds, and elevated thunderstorms will of course have the potential for severe hail. Any remnant outflow boundaries or surface fronts will serve to increase the tornado potential locally should storms become surface based, but the mass majority of storms should remain elevated as strengthening cold pools dominate the region. That being said, overall confidence in any of this activity remains quite low as model guidance continues to offer a wide range of solutions. The only thing that is certain is this active pattern that we are currently in doesn't seem to be going anywhere any time soon. As has been the case for the last several days, specific timing, coverage, and hazards will be hard to narrow down and may continue to heavily rely on real-time observations and radar/satellite interpretation. Continue to check for updates as the forecast is sure to evolve as we move forward.
The other main talking point with the long term forecast involves the heat that will begin to make its return across the region through the end of next week. Afternoon highs in the 90s with dewpoints in the 70s will allow heat indices to approach 105 degrees. Heat illness will become an increasing concern for those working outside, especially for our vulnerable populations.
Reeves
AVIATION
/NEW/ /00z TAFs/
VFR conditions presently prevail at the TAF sites, with convection ongoing well to the southwest of the airports. This convection over western Central Texas is not expected to directly impact any of the terminals, and will dissipate in a few hours. Overnight, a storm complex originating in the TX Panhandle will move southeastward, possibly entering North Texas prior to sunrise.
There is a very small chance (10%) that this convection could survive into western portions of D10, or at a minimum send an outflow boundary towards the TAF sites resulting in a brief WNW wind shift. Probabilities for this to occur are too low to introduce any of these conditions into the TAFs, and trends will be monitored over the next 6-12 hours in case their inclusion is warranted. Otherwise, there is a brief window when MVFR cigs could affect the TAF sites tomorrow morning, and this would likely occur after sunrise through late morning before scattering to VFR by midday. If a residual boundary or MCV exists from the morning convective complex, it could serve as a focus for isolated thunderstorm activity nearby later in the afternoon.
-Stalley
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 90 73 88 74 / 5 20 10 30 30 Waco 70 88 73 87 74 / 10 20 10 20 20 Paris 66 87 69 86 71 / 5 10 10 40 30 Denton 67 89 71 87 72 / 5 20 10 30 30 McKinney 67 88 71 87 72 / 5 20 10 30 30 Dallas 70 90 73 89 74 / 5 20 10 30 30 Terrell 68 88 71 87 73 / 5 20 10 30 20 Corsicana 71 90 73 89 75 / 5 20 10 30 20 Temple 70 88 73 89 75 / 20 30 10 20 10 Mineral Wells 67 90 72 88 72 / 10 20 20 30 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCRS C DAVID CAMPBELL FIELDCORSICANA MUNI,TX | 24 sm | 62 min | ESE 04 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 79°F | 68°F | 70% | 29.92 |
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,
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