Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Frierson, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 7:51PM Thursday April 22, 2021 8:46 AM CDT (13:46 UTC) Moonrise 2:03PMMoonset 3:03AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frierson, LA
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location: 32.35, -93.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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FXUS64 KSHV 221200 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 700 AM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

AVIATION.

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR cigs low and middecks are headed in our direction. SFC winds are calm or becoming light and variable as we see SE return flow off the Gulf in the wake of the cold air mass to our East. We will see SE winds 5-10 KT. Looking to become overcast later today with showers possible mid to late am on Friday with scat/num Tstorms some severe late Friday and overnight as a strong upper low and sfc low phase over the Red River valley and then a weak fropa brings back W/NW winds Sat. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 409 AM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021/

SHORT TERM . /Today through Friday/

Partly to mostly cloudy skies this morning with a calm wind for most and temperatures ranging all through the 40s. 38 degrees is the coldest in Ruston and as warm 47 in several TX counties from Tyler to Lufkin. We will see the return flow off the Gulf after sunrise with SE winds as the chilly high pressure continues to move eastward.

It looks like a good warm up with the wind shift alone, but still looks at least partly sunny with highs in the upper 60s to a few low 70s. The clouds will continue to thicken and lower with some showers early on Friday as we bottom out only in the mid to upper 50s. Highs tomorrow will see low to mid 70s with the chance for thunderstorms developing by lunch and ramping up all afternoon. We still are part of a large Slight Risk outlook in the SPC day two outlook. /24/

LONG TERM . /Friday Night through Wednesday Night/

Widespread convection will likely be ongoing across the forecast area, some of which may be severe, especially across Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas. The magnitude of the severe weather will likely be determined by the northward extent of the warm front, which should be at it's northern-most point at the start of the period. Any storms that become severe will pose at least a threat for damaging wind and large, possibly very large, hail, even north of the warm front due to very steep lapse rates. As the ejecting surface low moves across the northern half of the forecast area and the upper trough moves east of Interstate 35, a low-level jet will quickly strengthen, and low-level shear profiles will also become very strong across the area. This will result in an increasing threat for isolated tornadoes Friday evening into the very early morning hours of Saturday. However, the predominant storm mode is expected to be rather messy with multiple clusters across the area, which should limit the tornado potential somewhat. However, the tornado risk will be much higher if any cells can remain discrete, especially near the warm front where low-level shear will be maximized. In addition, the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding is also a concern, particularly southeast of a line from Tyler TX to El Dorado AR. The models still disagree with the placement of the axis of highest rainfall amounts, but the majority of the area should receive at least an inch of rain. The highest totals could be upwards of three or four inches, with isolated higher amounts.

The severe weather threat should end as the strongest storms move east of the area and dry slotting begins to occur from the southwest a few hours after midnight. A few showers or thunderstorms may linger across the eastern zones until a couple of hours after sunrise, but dry weather should prevail for the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures will continue to warm and most locations should be well into the 80s for daytime highs on Monday.

Confidence is still fairly high for the potential for another round of severe weather some time between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday night. The GFS remains almost 18 hours faster in the initial onset compared to the ECMWF, which is reasonable as the Euro maintains a much more positive tilt to the upper trough axis. Interesting, the GFS slow downs as the upper trough moves into Central Oklahoma and the bulk of the showers and thunderstorms enters the forecast area before once again speeding up and exiting the area faster than the EMCWF. This forecast reflects an average of the timing, but an slightly slower progression across the area than the GFS. Thus, precip could start as early as mid to late Tuesday morning, but the best chances for rain and most likely time for severe weather and another bout of heavy rainfall should be from late Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. /CN/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SHV 57 76 62 78 / 10 80 100 10 MLU 54 73 61 81 / 10 80 100 20 DEQ 50 69 57 74 / 20 90 90 0 TXK 56 70 61 75 / 20 80 90 0 ELD 51 71 58 77 / 20 70 100 10 TYR 59 75 60 76 / 30 90 70 0 GGG 57 74 61 76 / 20 90 80 0 LFK 59 76 63 79 / 20 80 90 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AR . None. LA . None. OK . None. TX . None.

24/09


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barksdale Air Force Base, LA11 mi50 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F40°F77%1023.7 hPa
Shreveport, Shreveport Regional Airport, LA13 mi50 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F40°F68%1023.2 hPa
Shreveport, Shreveport Downtown Airport, LA14 mi53 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy49°F39°F69%1023.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAD

Wind History from BAD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9N7--N3N10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNW5N3CalmNW3CalmSE3S6SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSE4S4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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