Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 8:07 AM   Moonset 11:20 PM

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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 857 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
Today - NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt early this afternoon, then becoming se late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 5 seconds and ne 3 ft at 8 seconds.Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 6 seconds and W 1 foot at 2 seconds. Sun - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: W 1 foot at 3 seconds and E 1 foot at 7 seconds. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds and sw 1 foot at 3 seconds. Mon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds, becoming S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Tue - S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms. Tue night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Wed - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 857 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - High pressure will prevail through the weekend into early next week. A storm system could affect the area by the middle of next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 111301 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 901 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will prevail through the weekend into early next week. A storm system could affect the area by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
No major changes are planned for the late morning update.
Observed and model soundings suggest dewpoints will mix out a bit more than expected, so hourly dewpoints were nudged down a bit. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

Today: Aloft, a northwest flow will dominate between a flat ridge across the southern Gulf of Mexico and a mid-upper low centered across the Great Lakes. At the sfc, a cold front will shift further south of the local area, allowing dry high pressure to build in its wake across southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia. The pattern will favor dry and slightly cooler conditions than the previous dry with weak cold air advection occurring early morning. However, cold air advection will wane as the northwest flow takes shape across the Southeast, resulting in a dry downsloping wind and perhaps some pinning of the seabreeze closer to the coast locally into the afternoon.
High temps should peak in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, warmest along the I-95 corridor.

Tonight: Very little changes in regards to the pattern aloft. The northwest flow aloft will maintain dry conditions through the night.
Clear skies and a weak pressure gradient should favor a decent amount of radiational cooling while winds become light/calm away from the coast during the first half of the night. However, a slight uptick in winds could return late with the approach of a dry front after midnight. Low temps should range in the mid 50s inland to low- mid 60s near the coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Sunday: Broad troughing will persist across the East Coast, resulting in northwesterly flow aloft over the local forecast area.
Surface high pressure centered over the Deep South will prevail. A dry forecast has been maintained as downsloping flow aloft will yield PWATs <1". Temperatures are forecast to be right around normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s far inland to mid to upper 60s closer to the coast.

Monday and Tuesday: The synoptic pattern is expected to change on Monday as a shortwave trough ripples across the southeastern states ahead of a broad mid-level trough approaching from the Midwest. At the surface the high pressure is forecast to shift offshore on Monday as a warm front develops to the south of the forecast area.
Moisture will begin to pool in the forecast area ahead of the approaching warm front, which combined with the forcing aloft from the passing shortwave could spur isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Instability is not impressive Monday afternoon, so the risk of strong thunderstorms is almost zero. Have included mention of thunder in the forecast as the ECMWF is showing several hundred J/kg of CAPE, which could be enough to spawn a grumble of thunder. Monday night into Tuesday the aforementioned warm front is forecast to lift northward through the forecast area.
PWATs are forecast to surge to around 1.8", which would exceed the daily maximum according to the SPC climatology. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move through the region as several shortwaves ripple across aloft. It is worth noting that some models hint at convection forming along the Florida Panhandle. If this comes to fruition it could decrease the precipitation coverage over the local forecast area. Model trends will need to be monitored closely approaching Monday night and Tuesday. Convective parameters are much more favorable on Tuesday, with ML CAPE values forecast to reach anywhere from 800 to 1200 J/kg as well as shear values 30-40 knots. A strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Temperatures Monday night are forecast to be rather mild, only dipping into the upper 60s along the coastline, with mid 60s further inland. Thick cloud cover on Tuesday could limit high temperatures to only the upper 70s to low 80s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Aloft, a mid-level trough is forecast to push off the East Coast mid- week, with another mid-level trough approaching at the end of the week. At the surface a cold front is forecast to push through mid- week, with another warm front impacting the region late in the week.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, with greater coverage possible on Friday. Temperatures are expected to be above normal through the period.

AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 12Z Sunday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms could bring flight restrictions to the terminals Monday afternoon into the middle of next week.

MARINE
Today and Tonight: A bit of surging should persist behind a departing cold front to the south into early morning hours, favoring northerly wind gusts around 20 kt. However, cold air advection post fropa is expected to weaken late morning and afternoon with the arrival of sfc high pressure and a northwest flow aloft. Sfc winds should therefore decrease to around 10 kt while veering more northeast late morning, then become southeast by late afternoon. An uptick in winds is then expected during the night, especially after midnight as a dry front passes near or just north of local waters late. Southwest to west winds could increase to 10-15 kt. Seas should generally range between 2-4 ft today, slowly subsiding to 1-2 ft overnight.

Sunday through Thursday: Generally tranquil marine conditions are forecast through the end of the weekend as high pressure extends over the local forecast area. Winds will generally be around 10 knots, with seas averaging 1 to 2 feet. Monday night S to SE winds will surge slightly as a warm front lifts northward through the region, generally around 15 knots with some gusts around 20 knots.
Seas will also increase, averaging 3 to 4 feet across the nearshore waters, with 4 to 6 ft across the 20-60 nm offshore GA waters. A Small Craft Advisory may be required. These conditions will persist into the middle of the week.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Edisto Marina, Big Bay Creek entrance, South Edisto River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Ocella Creek
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Sat -- 05:26 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:58 AM EDT     5.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:25 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ocella Creek, 2 mi. above entrance, South Carolina, Tide feet

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