Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Laurel Bay, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:19PM Sunday December 8, 2019 8:54 AM EST (13:54 UTC) Moonrise 3:14PMMoonset 3:34AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 659 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. Patchy fog.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..NE winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ300 659 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail inland today while a coastal warm front develops offshore and lifts north of the region Monday. A cold front will push through Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Strong high pressure will return thereafter, followed by a storm system late week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laurel Bay, SC
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location: 32.49, -80.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 081208 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 708 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will prevail inland today while a coastal warm front develops offshore and lifts north of the region Monday. A cold front will push through Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Strong high pressure will return thereafter, followed by a storm system late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Today: Short wave ridging will slide quickly through, giving way to a fast moving short wave that arrives during the mid and late afternoon. At the surface, an in-situ wedge will persist inland. Despite the parent high that is initially over New England and slides offshore, the short wave allows for a sharpening coastal trough that transitions into a warm front throughout the day. Although isentropic ascent will increase, it takes until forcing from the short wave to produce any showers from off the Atlantic, as a deep southerly flow generates significant moisture advection into the region. The best rain chances will occur across Charleston and Berkeley County due to the proximity of the surface trough/warm front. Highest PoP of 30-40% will be found roughly east of a line from Jamestown to Mount Pleasant, and not until after 2 or 3 pm. QPF will reach up to 1/10 to 2/10 inches in these locations. The remainder of the area has PoP less than 15%, but with the upcoming short it is possible that a couple of stray showers could occur elsewhere.

Surprisingly there is some CAPE across the ocean not far off the Charleston County coast. Unless these values shift further west and onshore, any low end risk for a little thunder and lightning will stay over the ocean.

Shoreline locations will be breezy throughout much of the day, with a packed gradient between the inland wedge and the coastal trough/warm front. Northeast winds will peak as high as 20-25 mph; even a little stronger in places that are exposed to a longer northeast fetch such as Folly Beach, Hunting Island, Tybee Island and Sapelo Island.

Temps will be cooler than recent days due to the greater cloud cover arriving with the short wave and also developing due to the nearby warm front. With the in-situ wedge in place, we're looking for highs that will be near or slightly below climo.

Tonight: The initial short wave passes into the Atlantic by 06Z, which will put an end to the rain chances over northern Charleston and eastern Berkeley County. There is however a second short wave that will pass just to our north and northwest late. Maybe this spurs a few more showers late, but probabilities are held under 15%.

A bigger concern will be the potential for fog as stratus build down occurs as moisture becomes trapped underneath a strong wedge inversion. For now we have added patchy fog to all land areas after midnight since the SREF and HREF aren't "hitting" the fog too much. But given that the statistical guidance is showing category 1 visibilities and/or ceilings at many sites, the fog could become dense and more widespread.

Warm advection and the insulating effects of what will be considerable cloud cover will lead to temps holding fairly steady overnight after dropping several degrees this evening.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A warm front will lift north of the region on Monday, ahead of an approaching cold front that will be shifting into the Ohio River Valley. Strong low level jetting will allow warm, moist air to overspread the area. Despite the increase in moisture, lack of large scale forcing will support a dry forecast for both Monday and Tuesday. The more interesting note will be the temperatures. By Tuesday, highs are forecast to range from the upper 70s to around 80 near the Altamaha. These values will be within a few degrees of records (see climate section below). Monday night lows should be quite mild for mid December - around 20 degrees above normal. Fog development over land is not expected, but if any sea fog develops it could drift onshore. Models hint that the coverage of sea fog could be a bit higher Tuesday night, with a further inland extent.

The aforementioned cold front will cross the local area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The main shortwave associated with the front appears to be in a weakening state as it gets closer to our area, so the upper forcing for ascent will not be that impressive. There will be showers around, but widespread coverage is not anticipated. QPF should be light. It will be cooler on Wednesday than previous days as high pressure builds behind the front. Highs will be near normal.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Model solutions vary in the long term, so forecast confidence is low. Overall, the pattern favors cooler and relatively unsettled weather for late week. Strong high pressure will build in wake of a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. A coastal trough is then expected to develop before lifting north of the area. Thereafter, models show a wave of low pressure developing over the Gulf of Mexico and shifting across the Southeast. Large timing discrepancies with these features make the precipitation forecast uncertain. Refinements will be needed with future forecast packages as models come into better agreement.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. KCHS: A high pressure wedge will strengthen inland, while a coastal warm front forms over the Atlantic. VFR will prevail through this evening, with flight restrictions to quickly develop tonight as a strong inversion develops and traps moisture underneath. This will eventually lead to MVFR conditions tonight, with even a chance of IFR ceilings and/or visibilities late in the forecast period.

There could also be -SHRA at or near the airfield between about 20Z and 01Z. But since no impacts would occur and the better chances stay off to the east and northeast, there is no mention with the latest TAF.

KSAV: Stratocumulus will continue to develop over or near the airport today, with low end VFR ceilings. With the formation of the nocturnal inversion tonight, there will be flight restrictions developing starting late. MVFR and/or IFR is certainly possible, especially after 08Z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible in night time and morning fog/stratus through early Wednesday. Additional flight restrictions could occur in showers associated with a cold front Tuesday night/early Wednesday.

MARINE. Today: The marine area will continue to experience a pinching of the gradient as a result of a nearby trough that evolves into a warm front, and an inland wedge of high pressure. This will result in a continuation of the ongoing Small Craft Advisories for all waters outside of Charleston Harbor. NE winds will average 15-20 kt with gusts of at least 25 kt, while seas will be as high as 4-6 ft within 20 nm and 5-7 ft on the outermost Georgia waters. Charleston Harbor winds will average 15 kt with some higher gusts. Showers will develop this afternoon, mainly on the Charleston County waters. We can't rule out an isolated T-storm or two on the AMZ350 waters since there is some weak instability and CAPE.

Tonight: A slackening gradient will develop as the warm front begins to lift north of the area, and we expect the advisories to come to an end early on the nearshore waters, but taking until after midnight for it to end on AMZ374. Stratus and/or fog over land areas will impact Charleston and Savannah Harbor after midnight, and we will maintain a watch for possible dense fog as well.

Monday through Friday: A warm front will lift north of the waters on Monday, allowing winds to become predominantly out of the south. Speeds will average 15 knots or less. A cold front is expected to pass through early Wednesday with marine conditions deteriorating in its wake. Strong northeast winds and building seas are expected to support Small Craft Advisories for all waters. Gale-force gusts will be possible as well, and Gale Watches and/or Warnings could be needed. The time period for potential gales looks to be late Wednesday night through Thursday. While some improvement is expected on Friday, elevated seas will likely keep Advisories in effect for at least portions of the waters.

Sea Fog: An abnormally warm and humid air mass will move in Monday and Tuesday, with a S-SW flow to occur. Provided that winds aren't too strong, sea fog formation will be possible across at least the nearshore coastal waters and at times even into Charleston Harbor, primarily beginning Monday night and potentially continuing into Tuesday night prior to cold frontal passage.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Astronomical high tides will already be in effect during the middle and latter part of next week, with the full moon on Thursday. With strong northeasterly winds, we anticipate that coastal flooding and beach erosion will become a problem. Details will be worked out as we draw closer to the event.

CLIMATE. Record Max Temps December 10th . KCHS . 82F set in 1972. KCXM . 79F set in 1943. KSAV . 82F set in 1972.

EQUIPMENT. KCLX is operating, but power output is extremely low. As a result, radar returns will generally remain weak. A technician will troubleshoot the problem today.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ350- 352-354. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ374.

NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . AVIATION . MARINE . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . CLIMATE . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 20 mi70 min N 2.9 42°F 1028 hPa39°F
41033 26 mi47 min ENE 18 G 23 50°F 58°F1027.8 hPa
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 32 mi61 min NNE 12 G 15 50°F 58°F1027 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 51 mi55 min NNE 11 G 13 45°F 1028.2 hPa (+1.0)43°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC5 mi2 hrsNE 810.00 miFair43°F39°F89%1027.5 hPa
Beaufort County Airport, SC11 mi60 minNNE 107.00 miFair45°F41°F87%1027.8 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC20 mi65 minN 810.00 miFair46°F42°F87%1027.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNBC

Wind History from NBC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6N5NE10NE66E6NE64SE5CalmE3NE5E3NE5NE6NE9NE8NE7NE8NE7N9N9NE8N9
1 day agoCalmNE6E6SE6CalmN5NW5CalmCalmCalmNW7N6CalmNE9W4CalmNW6NW4N3CalmN4N4CalmN3
2 days agoNW9N9N10N10N8N4W3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN4CalmN3NW3

Tide / Current Tables for RR. Bridge, Hall Island, South Carolina
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RR. Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:08 AM EST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:34 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:30 AM EST     8.05 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:40 PM EST     1.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:55 PM EST     7.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.612.23.95.77.17.97.97.15.642.41.31.11.83.14.76.17.27.575.742.3

Tide / Current Tables for North Dawson Landing, Coosawhatchie River, South Carolina
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North Dawson Landing
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:54 AM EST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:34 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:25 AM EST     7.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:26 PM EST     1.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:50 PM EST     7.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.71.22.445.76.97.67.56.65.23.62.21.31.32.13.34.866.97.26.65.33.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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