Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 10:40 PM   Moonset 7:42 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS64 KJAN 260534 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New AVIATION

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 916 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Rest of Tonight...Moisture continues to pool across the CWA this evening, as a frontal boundary resides in the vicinity of the Highway 82 corridor. This boundary has been the focusing mechanism for scattered showers this afternoon and evening. However, this activity has predominately stayed north and out of the forecast area.

For tonight, quiet weather will continue to reside across the area.
Lows will be slightly warmer than last night as they fall into the low and middle 60s. Clouds will continue to increase from the west, with some patchy fog possible across mainly Southeast Mississippi toward day break Friday.

The ongoing forecast is currently in good shape. I'll make some minor adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast based on current trends. Otherwise, no major changes will be made on this evening's update. /19/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The rest of today and tomorrow...Warm and mostly calm conditions are expected for the remainder of the afternoon into the evening.
A system just north of the CWA could bring some isolated showers and a rumble of thunder across the Hwy 82 corridor. Otherwise, partly cloudy conditions and temperatures in the 80s will continue through the afternoon. By this evening, dry conditions are expected areawide, with cloud cover increasing overnight.
Overnight lows will remain in the 60s. Patchy fog and low clouds will also be possible in the southeast tonight into tomorrow morning.

By Friday, mostly dry conditions and temperatures in the middle 80s will persist throughout the CWA A boundary looks to remain stalled over the Middle Mississippi Valley, while to our southeast, a surface ridge will continue building into the CWA Rain chances look to remain just northwest of MS, but we cannot rule out a light shower in SE AR and NW MS tomorrow afternoon. /AJ/

Friday Night through Thursday...The long term period will start off with quiet and dry conditions as global guidance continues to highlight a ridge axis maintaining its strong presence over the eastern half of the CONUS. At the same time, a 997mb sfc low in the Central Plains will continue to push northeast towards the Ohio River Valley region heading into early Saturday morning. The ridge axis axis will help deflect most shortwave trough energy to the northwest of the forecast area for us, with some rain chances possible on Saturday across part of the Delta. No changes have been made to the Limited wind graphic for Saturday and Sunday.

Storm chances will begin to increase by Monday morning/afternoon as southerly flow aloft helps build up moisture from the Gulf ahead of a surface cold front. Furthermore, several of these storms will have the capability of producing locally heavy rainfall at times thanks to deep layer moisture circulating around the retreating ridge and moving along a huge fetch of warm tropical/subtropical Atlantic waters. The threat for strong to severe storms will be low heading into the next work week as the deep layer shear and instability will remain west of our forecast area. By Tuesday evening, a stronger ridge will start to build over the Mississippi Valley Region as the aforementioned cold front shifts east out of the forecast area giving us a short break from the rain. Isolated showers and storms will make a brief return to the area on Wednesday and Thursday with quiet conditions expected on Friday. /CR/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Some patchy fog and/or low stratus development will be possible at namely KHBG and KPIB towards day break. This will result in a brief lowering of flight categories to at least MVFR status between 09-13Z. After sunrise and warming ensues, both will quickly erode and a return to VFR flight categories is expected.
Winds will be breezy from the south on Friday and sustained between 10-15 knots, with gusts around 25 knots possible at times, and only a slight drop off is expected during the evening. /19/EC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 67 85 64 83 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 65 85 63 83 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 68 86 66 85 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 66 84 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 68 86 65 85 / 0 0 0 10 Greenville 68 86 65 83 / 10 10 0 20 Greenwood 67 85 66 83 / 0 10 0 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Jackson/Brandon, MS,