Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Columbus, GA

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 404 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

Over the Weekend:

An upper level ridge and surface high will dominate in the Southeast today. On Sunday both features should shift towards the Atlantic as an upper level trough becomes better defined in the Plains.
Southwest flow in the mid and upper levels ahead of the developing trough will advect a fetch of moisture from the Eastern Pacific towards Georgia as the weekend progresses. This will lead to increasing high cloud cover today and mostly cloudy conditions by Sunday. Despite the increased cloud cover, dry weather remains favored through Sunday.

Dry air remains in place at the surface this morning, though surface dewpoints aren't quite in the single digits (as they were yesterday at this time). Dewpoints should rise gradually over the course of the day as the prevailing surface flow becomes more westerly. This reduces our confidence in the need for a Fire Danger Statement today (especially over northern Georgia), even though ample sunshine should favor boundary layer mixing. We went ahead and issued a Fire Danger Statement for areas south of Interstate 20 where confidence in 25 percent relative humidity values this afternoon was highest.
Later shifts will need to monitor north Georgia in case relative humidity values trend below forecast and a Fire Danger Statement becomes necessary. Surface dewpoints should climb into the 30s by Sunday and this should combine with increased cloud cover to keep minimum relative humidity values above 30% (odds of a Fire Danger Statement Sunday are less than 10%).

The return of west to southwest surface winds today and Sunday will produce WAA and favor a warming trend in Georgia. Afternoon high temperatures should climb back into the 50s today. Then on Sunday 60 degree highs will become the norm south and east of Atlanta.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 404 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

Warming and moistening conditions to start off the week. Upper level subtropical ridging will bring amplifying southwest flow out of the GoM. Temperatures will be well above normal with highs in the low to mid 60s Monday and maybe even low 70s by Tuesday (in the southeastern counties of the CWA). PWATs could reach right around the 90th percentile at 1.0-1.4". Record PWATs for this time of year generally range from 1.4"-1.6". Lifting within the ridging combined with ample moisture will more than enough to trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms across the CWA Elevated PoPs are expected Monday morning through Wednesday as a synoptic scale polar trough swings down into the central CONUS, reinforcing southeasterly flow.
Prolonged periods of light to moderate rainfall will lead to widespread 72hr QPFs of 2-3" with locally higher amounts of 4"+, particularly in the northern mountains. Storm motion parallel to band generation may mean an even greater threat for training thunderstorm and locally heavy rainfall. Due to the storm mode, model spread is high. Be prepared for amounts of 4"+ over 2 to 3 days, though some areas may receive as little as 0.5"-1". The main uncertainty pertains to the location of precipitation banding.
Model consensus is leaning towards a two part event associated with the initial shortwave on Monday across north GA and following trough, Tuesday into Wednesday, for Central GA. Should the initial moisture surge remain further south, or the second surge not push as far to the south and east, QPF accumulation axis may overlap more leading to greater event total accumulations.

Looking at the convective threat, overall convective energy looks to be low with Prob of CAPE >250 less than 30% throughout the period.
The greatest potential for instability will be a thin region stretching from roughly Columbus southward and over to Macon. Given synoptic forcing, some thunder is likely within the rain but not the main focus at this time.

As the larger scale trough drifts eastward, significantly cooler and drier air will make its way into the region Wednesday and Thursday.
Highs will fall back into the mid 40s and low 50s with lows in the mid 20s and low 30s once again. Confidence in wintry precipitation on the back-side of the system remains very low.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

VFR conditions (unrestricted visibility and SKC-SCT AOA 10000 ft AGL) will continue in north and central Georgia through 18Z Sunday. Light (6 kt or less) west winds will prevail through 18Z as well.

//ATL Confidence
12Z Update
High confidence in all elements of the KATL TAF.

Albright

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 54 36 61 44 / 0 0 0 60 Atlanta 53 36 59 47 / 0 0 0 70 Blairsville 51 31 57 41 / 0 0 0 90 Cartersville 52 32 58 44 / 0 0 10 80 Columbus 57 36 62 48 / 0 0 0 40 Gainesville 53 38 58 45 / 0 0 0 80 Macon 56 34 64 46 / 0 0 0 30 Rome 52 31 56 44 / 0 0 10 90 Peachtree City 55 33 60 44 / 0 0 0 60 Vidalia 56 36 66 48 / 0 0 0 10

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.