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FXUS62 KFFC 100822 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 320 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

New 06Z Aviation Discussion

Morning Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Main concern remains ongoing threat for severe storms with isolated areas of damaging winds and a brief tornado the main threats. Fortunately, the convection ahead of the main line has filled in and not intense as it was a few hours earlier, though there is a supercell with a history of brief tornadoes just SW of Stewart county that if it holds together could push into Webster, Sumter and other areas further east.

Timing of main line of storms should push through as expected with the cold front and strong NW winds a few hours behind the line.
Clearing will be very slow but could start pushing in from the west around sunset. Winds should gust up to 30 mph but should remain below advisory criteria.

So far we've been able to handle the rainfall with greatest amounts as of 3 AM of 2 inches over far NW GA. No plans to issue any kind of flood watch.

Potential for light snow in higher elevations of NE GA also no longer expected due to strong CAA and patchy precip pushing well east before critical temps reached.

Monday looks good with clear skies, cool daytime temps and moderate NW winds.

SNELSON

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 219 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Latest model guidance did not deviate too much from previous runs.
Still appears next chance for precip not until Friday night or Saturday as upper low tries to dig into the Gulf of Mexico and flow aloft in the region becomes SWly and warm/moist advection returns. Still seeing differences between model suites but nothing terribly significant. Until then, dry weather with seasonable temps expected. See previous discussion for more information on overall pattern and any fire weather impacts.

SNELSON

Previous Long Term Discussion: Issued at 143 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Key Messages:

- Dry weather is forecast in Georgia through Friday.

- Morning low temperatures should dip into the 20s along and north of Interstate 85 Monday and Tuesday.

- Rain chances return to the region next weekend.

Monday through Wednesday:

Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure should keep our weather dry during this period. The fair weather conditions will be favorable for chilly overnight temperatures. This will be especially true on Monday and Tuesday mornings when limited cloud cover, light winds, and low humidity should allow morning lows to dip into the 20s along and north of Interstate 85. With a relatively dry airmass in place, afternoon high temperatures should recover fairly well each day. Highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s on Monday should trend towards upper 50s on Wednesday.

It continues to look like low relative humidity values (30-35%)
could have us flirting with near critical fire danger conditions in the north Georgia mountains Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. The deciding factor may be how fuels respond to this weekends rainfall. For now it looks like there is a roughly a 25% chance of us issuing a Fire Danger Statement for the region each afternoon.

Thursday and Friday:

The majority of the GEFS and EPS ensemble members favor weak upper level ridging in our region during this period. With this in mind our forecast remains dry for both Thursday and Friday. Overall confidence in the precipitation forecast is lowest for Friday and Friday night due to timing uncertainties with the next potential trough as it moves east from Texas and/or the Gulf of Mexico.

Over the last 24 hours our temperature forecast has trended downward slightly for this period. We now expect afternoon highs to be near seasonal averages (low to mid 50s). This trend has shown up in both the EPS and GEFS guidance and is linked to the strength of a surface high (cooler airmass) shifting east from the Central Plains. Spreads in the NBM high temperature guidance (25th to 75th percentiles)
remain large for this period as well, generally around 10 degrees.

The Outlook for Next Weekend:

Ensemble guidance leans towards weak troughing in the region next weekend. Due to this rain chances (20 to 40%) creep back into the NBM and subsequently our forecast Saturday and Sunday. At this time around 75% over the GEFS and EPS members have some accumulating precipitation in our region next weekend.

Albright

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 215 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

IFR conditions expected to expand this morning to all sites even as line of SHRA/TSRA approaches from the west. Sfc winds will shift to WNW around 13Z at ATL metro airports and increase to 13-18kts with gusts of 24-28kts and similar wind shift at AHN, CSG and MCN a few hours later. Cigs will remain IFR even after frontal passage with improvement to MVFR after 18Z and VFR after 05Z Monday. Winds will subside some after 01Z Monday but remain gusty.

//ATL Confidence
00Z Update
Medium-High confidence on IFR and MVFR timing High confidence on all other elements

SNELSON

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 63 31 52 29 / 100 40 0 0 Atlanta 62 31 48 31 / 100 10 0 0 Blairsville 55 26 44 26 / 100 20 0 0 Cartersville 58 28 48 25 / 100 10 0 0 Columbus 65 33 54 31 / 100 10 0 0 Gainesville 60 32 49 30 / 100 20 0 0 Macon 66 33 54 30 / 100 50 0 0 Rome 57 28 51 26 / 90 0 0 0 Peachtree City 62 29 50 27 / 100 10 0 0 Vidalia 71 36 55 34 / 100 70 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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