Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Blanchard, LA
 | Sunrise 6:13 AM Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 11:52 PM Moonset 9:00 AM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blanchard, LA
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FXUS64 KSHV 170511 AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1211 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 1009 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
It has generally been a quiet evening across the region. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms have tried to form in areas along and north of I-30, but they were short-lived. The likely reason for that was revealed with our evening sounding, which showed a decent cap in place. Progs have been very aggressive in forecasting convection across the area, but it appears this cap is suppressing most activity. As of 10pm, we have a long track cell knocking on the door of Cherokee County in East Texas, which has had a long history of producing large hail and decent rotation. But, it is moving into the capped environment and falling apart. There is also another severe thunderstorm racing northeast, just east of Metroplex, which could also make it into portions of East Texas over the next couple of hours. As of now, I think our best chance for precip tonight will come from a complex of isolated storms currently across Central Arkansas. Progs continue to suggest those storms will form into a line and push south as it becomes cold pool dominate. This line could make it as far south as I-20 corridor near daybreak
Again
this is not a slam dunk. It is very possible we don't see much of anything overnight. Regardless, I decided to keep some slight to low-end chance POPs in the forecast, with best chances along and north of I-20 corridor. /20/
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
An increasingly active period of weather is expected through this short-term forecast, beginning late this afternoon as strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop invof the DFW metro area. From there, this convection is expected to rapidly expand eastward near/along the I-30 and I-20 corridors in NE TX, NW LA and SW AR very late this afternoon and through the evening hours.
The set-up for this potentially volatile period is marked by a slightly capped environment along and east of a weak sfc bndry situated near to just east of I-35 across east central OK before tailing SW over western north TX. Sfc-based CAPE values range from 4000-5000 J/kg across these areas along and east of the bndry to include roughly the NW half of our region.
For purposes of getting a better indication of how much capping in still in place, we have a 20Z special sounding planned for this afternoon. As this cap continues to gradually erode as expected, convective initiation should evolve quite rapidly from around DFW late this afternoon eastward across the Ark-La-Tex region through this evening before gradually diminishing toward midnight. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are primary threats with potentially very large hail possible with the most intense convection across our NW half, especially within the I-30 corridor. Although the tornado threat is lower comparatively, there remains at least a low-end potential in this general area encompassing our NW half.
Moving ahead to Saturday, a rinse and repeat of today appears to be in the offing given that the aforementioned bndry will retreat back northward and maintain very warm and unstable air across our region. In addition, more upper-level support is expected with a shortwave embedded in the SW flow pattern aloft lifting NE across TX into the Middle Red River Valley by late Saturday into Saturday night. Once again, robust convection is expected during the late day timeframe and into the evening hours on Saturday with nearly identical threats/areas highlighted and perhaps a slightly higher tornado threat compared to today. Severe potential will begin to wind down toward midnight into early Sunday morning as the upper forcing shifts NE with the ejecting shortwave. As for forecast temperatures, they are expected to remain well above normal with no frontal passages in store through the weekend.
/19/
LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Weak upper-level ridging will follow just behind the departing shortwave on Sunday, but more convection is expected to develop along a dry line well to our west on Sunday afternoon. Some of this convection is expected to impact our NW zones late Sunday into Sunday evening, and severe weather certainly cannot be ruled out given the very warm environment ahead of this dry line. Beyond that, little change in the overall pattern and set-up is expected through the remainder of the weekend.
This warm and more active pattern will carry into early next week ahead of a much stronger cold front expected to advance into the region on Tuesday into Tuesday night. As a result, this timeframe will encompass our next more organized severe weather threat as all modes will be possible. For this reason, SPC has included our entire region in a Day 5 Slight Risk to account for this next round of potential severe weather on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Once we get beyond Tuesday night, a much quieter weather period will follow for mid to late week. This will include a return to more comfortable temperatures in the post-frontal air mass with daily highs and lows much closer to seasonal averages for mid to late May. In fact, it's possible we may run a few degrees below normal through the remainder of the long-term period leading into the Memorial Day holiday weekend.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025
Very uncertain near several hours across our airspace concerning convective development and possible impacts across at least our western and northern most terminal locations. Frontal boundary has laid up stationary just to the west and northwest of our airspace and some high res progs suggest we could still see some widely scattered development that would move off this boundary, impacting at least our TYR/GGG and TXK terminals with that convection dissipating the closer we get to sunrise. Progs have had a poor handle thus far earlier this evening with convection making into our airspace so for the 06z TAF package, have prevailed VCTS at the TYR/GGG/TXK and ELD terminals through 12z. What is a little more certain is the return to MVFR ceilings advecting northward as has been the case the last several mornings with these ceilings lifting and/or scattering out by late morning into the afternoon.
Did re-introduce VCTS in the 00z-03z timeframe to account for possible late afternoon/evening complex of storms that appear to come our way out of Central/Northern Texas, impacting our airspace late in this TAF period.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon through this evening, mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor with any severe thunderstorms that develop. Similarly, timing of severe thunderstorms is likely late Saturday afternoon into the evening over much of the same area.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 93 75 93 / 40 0 0 10 MLU 74 92 74 93 / 30 10 0 0 DEQ 67 86 68 87 / 40 20 20 30 TXK 71 90 72 92 / 40 20 10 20 ELD 69 90 69 92 / 50 20 10 0 TYR 72 90 74 92 / 30 10 10 20 GGG 70 91 72 92 / 40 10 10 10 LFK 73 92 74 92 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1211 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 1009 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
It has generally been a quiet evening across the region. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms have tried to form in areas along and north of I-30, but they were short-lived. The likely reason for that was revealed with our evening sounding, which showed a decent cap in place. Progs have been very aggressive in forecasting convection across the area, but it appears this cap is suppressing most activity. As of 10pm, we have a long track cell knocking on the door of Cherokee County in East Texas, which has had a long history of producing large hail and decent rotation. But, it is moving into the capped environment and falling apart. There is also another severe thunderstorm racing northeast, just east of Metroplex, which could also make it into portions of East Texas over the next couple of hours. As of now, I think our best chance for precip tonight will come from a complex of isolated storms currently across Central Arkansas. Progs continue to suggest those storms will form into a line and push south as it becomes cold pool dominate. This line could make it as far south as I-20 corridor near daybreak
Again
this is not a slam dunk. It is very possible we don't see much of anything overnight. Regardless, I decided to keep some slight to low-end chance POPs in the forecast, with best chances along and north of I-20 corridor. /20/
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
An increasingly active period of weather is expected through this short-term forecast, beginning late this afternoon as strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop invof the DFW metro area. From there, this convection is expected to rapidly expand eastward near/along the I-30 and I-20 corridors in NE TX, NW LA and SW AR very late this afternoon and through the evening hours.
The set-up for this potentially volatile period is marked by a slightly capped environment along and east of a weak sfc bndry situated near to just east of I-35 across east central OK before tailing SW over western north TX. Sfc-based CAPE values range from 4000-5000 J/kg across these areas along and east of the bndry to include roughly the NW half of our region.
For purposes of getting a better indication of how much capping in still in place, we have a 20Z special sounding planned for this afternoon. As this cap continues to gradually erode as expected, convective initiation should evolve quite rapidly from around DFW late this afternoon eastward across the Ark-La-Tex region through this evening before gradually diminishing toward midnight. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are primary threats with potentially very large hail possible with the most intense convection across our NW half, especially within the I-30 corridor. Although the tornado threat is lower comparatively, there remains at least a low-end potential in this general area encompassing our NW half.
Moving ahead to Saturday, a rinse and repeat of today appears to be in the offing given that the aforementioned bndry will retreat back northward and maintain very warm and unstable air across our region. In addition, more upper-level support is expected with a shortwave embedded in the SW flow pattern aloft lifting NE across TX into the Middle Red River Valley by late Saturday into Saturday night. Once again, robust convection is expected during the late day timeframe and into the evening hours on Saturday with nearly identical threats/areas highlighted and perhaps a slightly higher tornado threat compared to today. Severe potential will begin to wind down toward midnight into early Sunday morning as the upper forcing shifts NE with the ejecting shortwave. As for forecast temperatures, they are expected to remain well above normal with no frontal passages in store through the weekend.
/19/
LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Weak upper-level ridging will follow just behind the departing shortwave on Sunday, but more convection is expected to develop along a dry line well to our west on Sunday afternoon. Some of this convection is expected to impact our NW zones late Sunday into Sunday evening, and severe weather certainly cannot be ruled out given the very warm environment ahead of this dry line. Beyond that, little change in the overall pattern and set-up is expected through the remainder of the weekend.
This warm and more active pattern will carry into early next week ahead of a much stronger cold front expected to advance into the region on Tuesday into Tuesday night. As a result, this timeframe will encompass our next more organized severe weather threat as all modes will be possible. For this reason, SPC has included our entire region in a Day 5 Slight Risk to account for this next round of potential severe weather on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Once we get beyond Tuesday night, a much quieter weather period will follow for mid to late week. This will include a return to more comfortable temperatures in the post-frontal air mass with daily highs and lows much closer to seasonal averages for mid to late May. In fact, it's possible we may run a few degrees below normal through the remainder of the long-term period leading into the Memorial Day holiday weekend.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025
Very uncertain near several hours across our airspace concerning convective development and possible impacts across at least our western and northern most terminal locations. Frontal boundary has laid up stationary just to the west and northwest of our airspace and some high res progs suggest we could still see some widely scattered development that would move off this boundary, impacting at least our TYR/GGG and TXK terminals with that convection dissipating the closer we get to sunrise. Progs have had a poor handle thus far earlier this evening with convection making into our airspace so for the 06z TAF package, have prevailed VCTS at the TYR/GGG/TXK and ELD terminals through 12z. What is a little more certain is the return to MVFR ceilings advecting northward as has been the case the last several mornings with these ceilings lifting and/or scattering out by late morning into the afternoon.
Did re-introduce VCTS in the 00z-03z timeframe to account for possible late afternoon/evening complex of storms that appear to come our way out of Central/Northern Texas, impacting our airspace late in this TAF period.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon through this evening, mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor with any severe thunderstorms that develop. Similarly, timing of severe thunderstorms is likely late Saturday afternoon into the evening over much of the same area.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 93 75 93 / 40 0 0 10 MLU 74 92 74 93 / 30 10 0 0 DEQ 67 86 68 87 / 40 20 20 30 TXK 71 90 72 92 / 40 20 10 20 ELD 69 90 69 92 / 50 20 10 0 TYR 72 90 74 92 / 30 10 10 20 GGG 70 91 72 92 / 40 10 10 10 LFK 73 92 74 92 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSHV
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSHV
Wind History Graph: SHV
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Southern Mississippi Valley
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