NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS64 KSHV 102040 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 240 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 238 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

With the ArkLaTex still situated on the western side of the trough responsible for this weekend's severe weather, upper level flow will still be firmly northwesterly through the evening and overnight, maintaining cold air advection areawide, and sustaining the dry airmass which has overtaken the region today. As winds begin to calm overnight, clear skies will allow for abundant radiational cooling, as temperatures plummet to what well may be their coolest values of the season thusfar. Current projections indicate dew points will be in the mid 20s, thus elected to trend 4-5 degrees below NBM guidance, settling on lows in the upper 20s across the ArkLaTex by daybreak Monday.

After a frosty start, Monday will proceed with a continued abundance of clear skies, punctuated only by an intrusion of high clouds north and west late in the day and into the evening. As pseudo- zonal flow aloft makes way for an area of ridging to shift eastward across the southern CONUS. Highs Monday afternoon will be a smidge warmer than today's, climbing into the middle 50s northeast to lower 60s southwest, followed by a warmer (though arguably still quite chilly) night of lows dropping into the lower 30s northeast to mid to upper 30s southwest.

/26/

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

The NW flow aloft will begin to flatten and become zonal to start the long term period Tuesday, before eventually becoming SW Tuesday night ahead of upper troughing that will develop over the Great Basin and deepen into the Desert SW. As the flow transitions to SWrly, should see an increase in elevated cigs (mainly cirrus), although weak sfc ridging is progged to maintain its influence on the area through the end of the week. Dry conditions with mostly seasonal temps are expected through at least Thursday, although considerable uncertainty remains with the remainder of the forecast, which will be dictated by the eventual track and speed of the developing closed low as it drifts E or SE out of the Desert SW.

Mid and upper level moisture will begin to deepen/build NE over the region by late Wednesday, with the GFS remaining consistent with its earlier runs in shifting the closed low SE into SW TX by Friday before emerging out over the Wrn Gulf by Saturday. This track remains farther S then the GEFS ensembles, and the outlier, with the 12Z ECMWF having shifted back to a more Erly track (and more Nrn position than its earlier run which was similar to the 00Z/12Z GFS with a more Srn solution). Another significant difference introduced with the ECMWF run though is the Ern movement of the closed low slowing considerably by late week as it drifts into the Srn Plains, taking the better part of the weekend to traverse ESE into the NW Gulf. The overall slower solutions do suggest that any rains will wait until late Thursday night before influencing E TX, with introduction of slight chance pops delayed until that time. Given the considerable spread amongst the deterministic and ensemble solutions, did maintain the NBM's trend of a gradual increase to chance pops from W to E Friday, before diminishing across the area late Saturday. Whereas the GFS/Canadian suggest a farther SSErly track of the low and thus, QPF mainly concentrated generally along/S of I-20 in E TX/NW LA, the ECMWF is a much wetter solution, with the potential for locally heavy rains over E TX/SE OK/Wrn LA especially if the system continues to slow its Ewd progress as currently advertised. Attm, it appears that any thunder will remain closer to the coast or offshore where a frontal wave/sfc low could develop closer to the closed low center. Pop adjustments are likely over the next few days until the models can come into better agreement with the approach of this system.

15

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

For the 10/18Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the course of the forecast period across ArkLaTex airspace.
Northwesterly winds of 5 to 15 kts will decrease as the day continues, becoming light and variable overnight before becoming southerly tomorrow.

/26/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 28 61 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 28 58 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 26 57 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 28 57 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 27 58 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 27 61 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 26 62 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 27 62 36 66 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Shreveport, LA,