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FXUS64 KSHV 061639 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1039 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1039 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Crisp and cool conditions persist this morning, as Canadian sfc ridging remains anchored from the Mid MS Valley SW into ECntrl TX.
This is the result in atmospheric column cooling in the lower 7kft in wake of an upper trough passage that continues to deepen over the Gulf Coast states (per the 00Z/12Z KSHV raobs). What is interesting is the extent of contrails evident over E TX/NW LA this morning, which originated just before daybreak over NW and NCntrl TX. These fields have dispersed some over the last couple of hours, but have conglomerated into an extensive cirrus shield over these areas, which may help offset the extent of diurnal heating before they eventually thin later this afternoon/evening.

Did have to beef up the sky grids to reflect partly cloudy wording in the forecast today, which necessitated a forecast update. Did also make some minor adjustments to temps based on the 15/16Z obs, but otherwise, near normal temps are expected for the afternoon before readings quickly drop off this evening as what little wind decouples within the dry air mass in place.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

A surface ridge will build southward today into Arkansas and the Lower Mississippi River Valley. With a weak upper ridge axis just to our west, the combined subsidence will continue to keep benign conditions in place. Weak cold air advection associated with the surface ridge will likely keep daytime high temperatures very close to climo.

Southerly surface winds and southwesterly flow aloft will return overnight as ridging moves east of the area. This should result in a gradual increase in high cirrus clouds. Despite the clouds, another chilly night is anticipated. Overnight lows should range from the lower 30s to near 40 degrees F. However, we should quickly moderate during the day Thursday with daytime highs warming well into the 60s areawide. Otherwise, the forecast remains precip-free for the short-term period.

CN

LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Upper-air pattern Thursday night into Friday morning features southwesterly flow across our region as a large trough begins to move into the Pacific Northwest and in the wake of a departing ridge. Southwest flow will only become strong through the day Friday. Meanwhile, at the surface, strong southerly winds will be in place across our area, with sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph and gusts from 25 to 35 mph possible. All this thanks to the trough digging through the Rocky Mountains. GFS continues to throw some PoPs in for Friday afternoon, however, still not thinking that any precip will being moving into the area till the evening and overnight hours. There is a chance for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm Friday evening or overnight, but right now the greater threat looks to be on Saturday. Friday and Saturday will be fairly warm for this time of the year, with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s and some mid 70s on Saturday for portions of the area.

A strong cold front will be just to the northwest of the area as we all wake up Saturday morning. We could have some ongoing showers and thunderstorms across portions of the area. Under the influence of southwest flow aloft and southerly winds at the surface, our area will be in the warm sector for Saturday. We should get some decent instability that will be strengthen by afternoon diurnal heating.
As such, thunderstorms should become widespread by Saturday afternoon anywhere from east Texas to the Ark-La-Miss, which is currently where SPC will have a large D4 15 percent area painted.
All modes of severe weather will be possible across much of the area for Saturday. Now, there does remain some uncertainty with the timing and location of the best development, something that will be fine tuned in the coming days. Regardless, now is the time to review your severe weather plans.

In the wake of this severe weather event, the aforementioned cold front will push through the region. As a result, temperatures will return to more seasonable conditions for Sunday and into the start of next week. Sunday night looks like it could be another chilly night, with sub-freezing temperatures returning to the northern half of the forecast area. /33/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

VFR flight conditions should continue to prevail areawide for the duration of the TAF period, but high clouds will gradually increase in coverage from west to east. Otherwise, easterly surface winds are expected during most of the daytime hours before becoming southeasterly at all TAF sites late in the period.

CN

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 61 40 66 52 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 57 33 64 44 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 57 32 64 46 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 57 38 63 49 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 56 34 63 45 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 63 41 66 55 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 61 39 67 52 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 65 39 67 52 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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