Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kiawah Island, SC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
At sunrise: The dense fog threat never really came to fruition overnight. There is probably some patch dense fog in a few places well inland, but certainly nothing widespread. Rain continues to be confined to the GA coast, primarily McIntosh County.

Today: Aloft, the pattern will continue to feature southwest flow as a shortwave digs across the Plains and approaches the MS Valley. At the surface, high pressure will remain the primary feature with a front still draped off the Southeast coast, across north FL, and across the northern Gulf. There is good model agreement that the moisture feed and precipitation shield to the south will gradually spread back to the north along the GA coast through the morning. One of the main forecast questions is how far north will the light rainfall spread. Hi-res model consensus and the HRRR favors the light precipitation getting as far north as Hinesville, Savannah, and almost up to Beaufort and the Charleston County coast. Additional rainfall amounts will be light with a few hundredths to a tenth along a line from Reidsville to Savannah and Beaufort south, then up to a quarter of an inch across McIntosh County and portions of the GA coast.
It will be yet another very chilly and cloudy day with highs only reaching the low 50s for most of the area.

Tonight: The shortwave will push east of the lower MS Valley and toward the southern Appalachians. This will drive surface low development across the northeast Gulf as well as off the Southeast coast. Most of the rainfall will remain to the south and southeast along the boundary and associated with the developing surface low. However, we will see an area of light precipitation develop more closely associated with the trough aloft and track across MS, AL, and GA. While these showers will mostly remain west of the forecast area through the overnight, a few showers could get into the far western zones by around sunrise. We will still be in an environment with plenty of low- level moisture so low stratus will persist and we could again see fog development. Lows are forecast to fall into the low to mid 40s in most areas.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Scattered showers will move through Monday morning as the primary shortwave passes by to the northwest. Meanwhile, cool high pressure will build from the west. Tuesday looks fairly cool with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, but temps quickly rebound on Wednesday with highs pushing into the lower 60s in most areas.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Temperatures will moderate late in the week, then a reinforcing cold front sweeps through Friday. A few showers may accompany the front, followed by much colder air.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The 12z TAF period begins with MVFR conditions at KCHS and KJZI, while KSAV has actually been VFR for a while. Elsewhere, MVFR ceilings are widespread and should fill in at the TAF sites as well. Rain is expected to push back to the north and into KSAV by the early afternoon, while it will likely be just on the doorstep of KJZI and KCHS. KSAV should go back to IFR with the arriving rainfall, while KCHS and KJZI likely remain MVFR through the day. Rain should come to an end at all 3 sites by the late evening. Model guidance then suggests that IFR ceilings will return to all 3 sites after midnight and persist through the end of the TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: IFR/MVFR ceilings expected to persist through Monday night, then improving to VFR.

MARINE
Today through tonight: Winds will start off northeast 5-10 knots this morning then gradually become northerly 10-15 knots through the evening. Then overnight, winds will turn more northwesterly 10-15 knots with gusts potentially approaching 20 knots at times. Seas should average 2-3 feet through the period.

A brief period of Small Craft Advisory winds/seas is possible Monday night over the Charleston nearshore waters and GA offshore waters. The next chance for advisories will be Friday night behind a reinforcing cold front.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Upcoming morning high tide (~9:30 am): At Charleston, the astronomical high tide is 6.47 ft MLLW, meaning that there would need to be a tide departure of at least 0.53 ft to reach the minor coastal flood threshold. The current departure is 0.5 ft and the peak tide is expected to be right around that 7 ft MLLW mark. We will hold off on a Coastal Flood Advisory for now and see how observations go over the next hour or two.

After the morning high tide there are no more concerns for tidal flooding through the week.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.