Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kiawah Island, SC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Guidance has come in drier for this current overnight period, so expecting dry conditions into the morning with winds remaining just strong enough to keep fog mostly as patchy, though wind protected areas may see a touch more coverage. High resolution ensemble guidance agrees, only giving scattered 20 to 30 percent chances for visibility to dip below 3 miles. Given the continued warm-air advection aloft with surface dewpoints in upper 50s and lower 60s, overnight lows by daybreak look to similarly remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The strong cold front that has been well advertised for days will be moving towards the area throughout the day, but today will still feature warm afternoon temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s, warmest in southeast Georgia. This is courtesy of the continued warm air advection from the southwesterly winds, and combined with a surge of moisture moving in ahead of the cold front we'll see renewed chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for the region this afternoon. With generally up to 1000 J/kg of CAPE and 40-50 knots of bulk shear, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm can't be ruled out. SPC has majority of the area, aside from far inland southeast Georgia, in a level 1 out of 5 (Marginal)
risk for severe thunderstorms, which is generally what most of the AI/ML algorithms are also suggesting could be possible today.
However, as discussed in the previous discussion, some guidance is suggesting an area of subsidence out ahead of the cold front may limit upward vertical motion potential. This would hinder majority of thunderstorm development, keeping rainfall chances primarily in the form of showers.

The strong cold front pushes through during the late evening hours, bringing an end to any remaining showers/storms. Cold-air advection combined with the strengthening surface pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions, gusting into the 20 to 25 mph range by daybreak. Overnight lows reach down into the upper 30s inland, and mid 40s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Strong cold advection will be in place through Tuesday. Highs both days will generally be in the lower 50s. Monday night into Tuesday morning we expect a solid freeze across the area, potentially all the way to the beaches. Also, in pockets of southeast GA the wind chill could briefly dip below 20 degrees, triggering a Cold Weather Advisory. Freeze headlines are likely to be needed for the entire forecast area Monday night. Additionally, a Lake Wind Advisory for Moultrie may be needed. Tuesday night, clear skies with light to calm winds should provide strong radiational cooling conditions.
Low temperatures should fall to around 30 degrees along and west of I-95, with the mid to upper 30s to the east. Temperatures moderate on Wednesday, rising well into the 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Temperatures should trend warmer through the rest of the week. In fact, temperatures should return to mid November normals by Thursday, remaining near normal through the rest of the forecast period. Conditions should remain dry under NW mid-level flow.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
09/06z: While most areas will see VFR conditions persist, brief MVFR cigs can't be ruled, with some patchy MVFR visbys possible as well, especially across inland southeast Georgia. Expect conditions to improve after daybreak, with probabilities for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms returning to the region later this afternoon into the evening hours. Winds turn northwesterly behind a strong cold frontal passage later this evening into the overnight period, with gusts 15 to 20 knots expected.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. Gusty NW winds are expected Monday and Monday evening.

MARINE
Today: Southwest winds today ranging from 10-15 knots will turn to the northwest and increase tonight behind a strong cold front, gusting 20 to 30 knots. Weakest winds are expected for the nearshore waters from South Santee to Edisto, and therefore do not have a Small Craft Advisory (SCA), whereas the nearshore waters from Edisto to Altamaha Sound do have an SCA go into effect shortly after midnight. Offshore Savannah to Altamaha Sound will see the strongest winds near 30 knots, where an SCA is also in affect starting at midnight.

Extended Marine: The strongest winds across our coastal waters are expected Monday into Tuesday. We will have Small Craft Advisories in effect for this time period due to winds and seas. Conditions gradually improve Wednesday and beyond.

CLIMATE
Upcoming Record Low Temperatures:

November 11 (Tuesday): KCHS: 29/1943 KCXM: 32/1913 KSAV: 31/1968

November 12 (Wednesday): KCHS: 27/1943 KCXM: 33/1894 KSAV: 30/2011

Upcoming Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

November 10 (Monday): KCHS: 46/1991 KCXM: 47/1991 KSAV: 49/1968

November 11 (Tuesday): KCHS: 54/1968 KCXM: 46/1913 KSAV: 49/1913

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ352.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ354.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ374.