Sunday, February23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kiawah Island, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:12PM Sunday February 23, 2020 8:41 AM EST (13:41 UTC) Moonrise 7:13AMMoonset 6:20PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 713 Am Est Sun Feb 23 2020
Today..Variable winds 5 kt, becoming se less than 10 kt.
Tonight..E winds 5 kt.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers.
Mon night..SE winds 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Showers.
Tue..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Showers.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Showers.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 54 degrees.
AMZ300 713 Am Est Sun Feb 23 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will persist through tonight. A warm front will lift north of the region on Monday, followed by a pair of cold fronts during the middle of the week. High pressure returns Thursday and Friday, with another cold front expected on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kiawah Island, SC
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location: 32.59, -80.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 231254 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 754 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will persist through tonight. A warm front will lift north of the region on Monday, followed by a pair of cold fronts during the middle of the week. High pressure returns Thursday and Friday, with another cold front expected on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Today: Temperatures will continue to moderate as the surface high pressure breaks down and transitions off Mid Atlantic Coast late. Low level thickness values and weak afternoon return flow in the boundary layer suggest most areas should have no trouble reaching the 60s; lower 60s north to the mid 60s south. We should see plenty of sunshine this morning but models indicate high clouds will tend to become thicker and more widespread toward late afternoon. A weak pressure pattern over the region in the low levels will result in light winds all areas today.

Tonight: Warm air advection processes aloft, increasing layered clouds, and elevated low level dew points will result in much milder temps overnight across the area. Most of the moisture initially will be mid and high clouds and we have dry weather and some low silent POPs until late night. There could be a few showers breaking out across East Central GA across the Savannah River to the SC Midlands late night, we maintained some 20/30 POPs adjacent to these areas around daybreak. There could be some patchy fog in a few spots late tonight, not enough certainty to insert into our forecast at this time.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Monday: High pressure that covers the western Atlantic will pull a little further offshore. This allows for a warm front to lift north of the local area in response to a surface low and associated short wave trough moving from the central and southern Great Plains toward the lower and middle Mississippi Valley. Strengthening isentropic ascent along with mid level perturbations and a deep flow aloft out of the Gulf of Mexico will support scattered PoP north and northwest, with isolated to low end chance PoP south and southeast. QPF is no more than 1/10 to 2/10 inches. Expect a large range of temps dependent upon the timing of the warm front lifting through, For now we have 60-63F north and northwest, mid 60s to lower 70s elsewhere.

Monday night: A continued feed of rich tropical-like moisture out of the Gulf will prevail in advance of a cold front within a deep southwest flow aloft. PWat climbs near 1.5 inches, or close to the climatological max for february over the area. There is large scale forcing for ascent with a nearby 135-145 kt upper level jet, supporting widespread rains spreading in from the west and southwest. We have categorical PoP as a result. After coordination with WPC we have opted to expand the "Marginal Risk" of excessive rainfall into most of our counties inland from I-95. QPF will reach at least 1/2 to 1 inch, with locally higher amounts. Given the recent heavy rain event in some areas, there could be a need for a Flash Flood Watch at a later time. Temps will be considerably warmer than recent nights within a strong warm advection pattern. Expect temps to hold fairly steady or even rise during the overnight period.

Tuesday: A cold front that trails from low pressure lifting into the Ohio Valley, will stall over the local area as it becomes aligned to the flow aloft. Models differ slightly on where the main moisture axis becomes situated in relation to South Carolina and Georgia. But given mid level impulses passing through and large scale forcing for ascent due to the presence of the 140-150 kt upper jet, we maintained 70-80% PoP. We added mention of isolated t-storms given some instability and CAPE and a mid level jet nearby. Temps will be several degrees above climo given the warm advection regime in place.

Wednesday: A secondary and stronger cold front will sweep through in response to a robust short wave trough shifting into the east. This shunts the deep plume of moisture further offshore, and convective rain chances will diminish throughout the day. Given good QG forcing we did hold onto chance PoP, but soundings and time cross-sections do show considerable drier air working it's way in behind the second cold front. The cold advection is rather sluggish in arriving, thus we still have temps well above climo.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. A highly amplified mid and upper pattern will cover the lower 48 states, showing a broad trough over the eastern half of the country and ridging out west during most of the period. At the surface, high pressure will dominate into Friday, followed by a cold front next Saturday. As of this time the front looks to be moisture starved, so we don't have any mention of PoP. Confidence is excellent that given the low heights aloft and 850 mb temps that are as as much as several degrees below 0C, that the end of February will be well below climo.

Lake Winds: Colder air moving atop the relatively warmer waters of Lake Moultrie will likely result in the issuance of a Lake Wind Advisory Wednesday night into Thursday night.

AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. VFR through 24/12Z at both KSAV/KCHS. Slight chance of some low cigs at KSAV toward daybreak on Mon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: A warm front will lift north of the area Monday, followed by a pair of cold fronts into Wednesday. This will result in periods of showers and maybe even a few t-storms, along with at least periodic flight restrictions. VFR along with breezy to windy conditions will then prevail behind the second cold front into Thursday.

MARINE. Through Tonight: A weak pressure pattern across the waters as high pressure weakens along the coast today then sets up off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. Wind speeds will mainly be less than 10 kt with variable directions, becoming onshore. Weak flow will then become SE to S late tonight. Seas continue to slowly subside. We have 6 ft seas well offshore near the Gulf Stream over the 20-60 NM GA waters this morning and then suspect that the SCA in that marine leg will come down for this afternoon.

Monday: A warm front will pass north of the local waters, with high pressure anchored west of Bermuda. Even though wind fields are limited, seas are somewhat elevated due to continued swells impacting the area.

Monday night through Wednesday: One cold front will approach on Tuesday and stalls out over or near the local vicinity, before a second and stronger cold front moves through Wednesday. Winds will turn S and SW and increase, allowing for seas to also climb. We could need Small Craft Advisories at a later time on at least some of the marine zones. Convective rains will occur during much of the time, along with some potential for t-storms. There are hints of sea fog per model guidance, but the conditions overall don't appear highly favorable for it to occur as of this time.

Wednesday night through Friday: Strong high pressure builds in from the west, and with varying degrees of cold advection and steady isallobaric pressure rises, we anticipate the need for additional Small Craft Advisories.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ374.

NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . 33 LONG TERM . 33 AVIATION . MARINE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 13 mi41 min NE 8 G 8.9 48°F 1027.6 hPa (-0.0)36°F
CHTS1 16 mi59 min N 5.1 G 6 49°F 54°F1027.3 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 18 mi56 min Calm 34°F 1027 hPa34°F
41033 27 mi33 min E 9.7 G 14 50°F 54°F1027.8 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 30 mi33 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 48°F 51°F1028.2 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 54 mi31 min 7.8 G 9.7 71°F1026.7 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC10 mi46 minN 08.00 miFair37°F32°F81%1027.4 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC23 mi1.8 hrsN 49.00 miA Few Clouds29°F26°F89%1026.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJZI

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N9N9N8CalmCalmE6E7E5CalmCalm----Calm--CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Kiawah River Bridge, South Carolina
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Kiawah River Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:38 AM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:15 AM EST     5.95 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:33 AM EST     New Moon
Sun -- 02:08 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:12 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:21 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:22 PM EST     5.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.9-0-0.20.51.83.24.45.45.95.74.83.51.90.6-00.31.32.63.84.85.35.24.43.2

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:11 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:40 AM EST     1.55 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:29 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:33 AM EST     New Moon
Sun -- 11:34 AM EST     -2.51 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:35 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:45 PM EST     1.58 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:11 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:19 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:31 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:47 PM EST     -2.25 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2-1.2-0.20.91.51.51.51.20.5-0.6-1.6-2.4-2.4-1.8-0.70.51.41.61.41.10.5-0.5-1.4-2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.