Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kiawah Island, SC

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Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:55PM Sunday August 25, 2019 8:24 PM EDT (00:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:34AMMoonset 3:01PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 723 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Tonight..NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt.
Tue..NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 5 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 5 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 85 degrees.
AMZ300 723 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail inland, while a stationary front lingers south and east of the area early this week. Meanwhile, low pressure is expected to pass well off the southeast coast. A cold front will impact the region later in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kiawah Island, SC
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location: 32.59, -80.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 252344
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
744 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail inland, while a stationary front
lingers south and east of the area early this week. Meanwhile,
low pressure is expected to pass well off the southeast coast.

A cold front will impact the region later in the week.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of 740 pm: I will update the forecast to mainly adjust to
cooler observed temperatures this evening. Otherwise, the
current forecast appears on track.

Previous discussion:
the surface pattern will be somewhat complex. A wedge of high
pressure will be to our north while a stationary front will
generally be to our south. Finally, low pressure deciding
whether it wants to form into a tropical system or not is far to
our east and moving away. The high will be the most dominant of
these features, which will give a majority of our area dry
conditions tonight. However, models do show some light showers
developing over the coastal waters, then making a run for and
possibly brushing our coastal ga counties late tonight. Hence,
we have slight chance pops there. Otherwise mostly cloudy skies
should persist. Due to the front nearby. Lows will generally be
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Wednesday
Monday: a cooler wedge-type pattern will persist across southeast
south carolina and much of southeast georgia behind a stalled front
positioned south of the area. Precip chances will be quite low
across southeast south carolina within a prevailing northeast sfc
wind. Further south, sfc winds could be more directly onshore,
helping moisture linger north of the front along near the altamaha
river. The effects of the wedge will also not be as strong south,
allowing temps to warm into the mid to perhaps upper 80s. Marginal
instability and weak isentropic lift suggest few to scattered
showers during the morning, then perhaps a few thunderstorms during
mid late afternoon near the altamaha river. Any convection should
wane dissipate during early overnight hours. Low temps should remain
cooler, dipping into the upper 60s north and away from the coast in
southeast south carolina to low mid 70s south and closer to the
coast in southeast georgia.

Tuesday: a quasi-stationary front should remain just south of the
region, but a wedge-like pattern should weaken across the southeast
united states in advance of a mid upper lvl trough of low pressure
and associated sfc cold front approaching the region from the west.

A southwest sfc flow ahead of the front will advect deeper moisture
to the region while mid upper lvl forcing arrives late. Given the
anticipated pattern, scattered to numerous showers and or
thunderstorms are possible later in the day, highest chances west of
i-95. Temps should warm a few degrees more than the previous day
with highs generally ranging in the mid upper 80s. Some locations
could experience temps in the lower 90s well inland in southeast
georgia.

Wednesday: a larger mid upper lvl trough of low pressure will shift
across the midwest and toward the mid-atlantic states, helping push
a sfc cold front into the area. The pattern should support the
wettest conditions of the week as the front encounters deep moisture
characterized by pwats 2.25-2.50 inches and modest instability. At
this time, chances of severe weather remain fairly low, but can not
be ruled out during near fropa. Regardless, scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are possible across much of the area. High
temps should warm into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
A cold front is expected to pass offshore Wednesday night or
Thursday which will then linger in the vicinity through late week as
high pressure builds in from the west. Models vary in regards to
timing of frontal passage, with the euro the quicker solution. This
makes for a lower confidence rainfall forecast as rain chances will
hinge on frontal position. Overall, went with consensus pops of
around 40% during the daytime hours. Temperatures will be
seasonable.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Prior to the 0z tafs, kchs was observing MVFR ceilings, along
with most surrounding terminals. Despite the common MVFR
observation, MOS has not indicated MVFR ceilings early this
evening for kchs. However, based on persistence and forecast
soundings, I will indicate MVFR ceilings through Monday morning.

I will tempo a window forVFR conditions around midnight.VFR
conditions expected for ksav through the 0z period. Winds this
evening and tonight are forecast to remain steady from the ne,
turning from the east Monday afternoon.

Extended aviation outlook: flight restrictions will likely persist
at both chs and sav terminals Monday, due to low clouds associated
with a wedge of high pressure. Brief flight restrictions are then
possible with showers thunderstorms on Tuesday, then again on
Wednesday with showers thunderstorms along a passing cold front.

Marine
Tonight: a strong wedge of high pressure will persist inland and
to our north, while a stationary front is generally to our
south, and finally a low is to our east. The interaction
between all of these features has led to an increased surface
pressure gradient, which is causing elevated winds. We are
continuing the small craft advisory for amz350 due to wind gusts
around 25 kt. Elsewhere, gusts should be around 20 kt.

Additionally, seas have responded to these winds by building.

Seas up to 6 ft are forecasted for amz374, so we also issued a
small craft advisory here. Conditions are forecasted to be at
their worst just after midnight, then gradually start to improve
as the gradient lowers.

Monday through Friday: high pressure will prevail inland while
tropical low pressure tracks north northeast, well east of coastal
waters offshore. The pattern will initially favor a tightened
pressure gradient over coastal waters Monday with north northeast
winds topping out around 15-20 kts and seas building up to 4-6 ft,
highest across offshore georgia waters. For this reason, a small
craft advisory will continue across offshore georgia waters early
Monday before the tropical low departs north northeast of the
region. Winds will weaken considerably by Tuesday, becoming onshore
and remaining 10 kts or less. By Wednesday, winds should become
more offshore ahead of a cold front approaching the from the west.

The front should shift over coastal waters Thursday, then linger in
the vicinity through late week. At this time, winds and seas are
expected to remain below small craft advisory criteria mid to late
week.

Rip currents: increasing east northeast winds could contribute to an
enhanced risk of rip currents on area beaches early week, especially
if tropical low pressure intensifies while tracking well offshore.

Tides coastal flooding
Elevated tide levels are expected this week with the approach of the
lunar perigee and new moon this Friday. Coastal flooding will be
possible during the evening high tide cycles, starting as early as
Monday, but more likely during the latter half of the week. In
addition, there is the potential for some heavy rain around the
times of high tide which could exacerbate any flooding issues.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt Monday for amz374.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Monday for amz350.

Near term... Ned
short term...

long term...

aviation... Ned
marine...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 13 mi84 min NNE 13 G 17 76°F 1016.5 hPa (+0.0)70°F
CHTS1 16 mi54 min NNE 14 G 15 76°F 85°F1016.8 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 18 mi99 min N 2.9 80°F 1016 hPa70°F
41033 27 mi76 min ENE 14 G 18 80°F 85°F1015.7 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 30 mi76 min NE 18 G 21 75°F 84°F1016 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 54 mi34 min N 19 G 25 79°F 83°F6 ft1015 hPa74°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC10 mi29 minN 99.00 miOvercast75°F68°F78%1016.9 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC23 mi88 minNE 1010.00 miOvercast74°F66°F79%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJZI

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm----N7----N10N11--N8
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1 day agoCalmCalm--------CalmCalmCalmCalmN6N5N5N7N6N5N4CalmE5E5E6E5
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2 days agoS6S7S6--S8--S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W5W5SE8S8SE8S10S8SE7S7SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Kiawah River Bridge, South Carolina
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Kiawah River Bridge
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Sun -- 01:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:40 AM EDT     5.01 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:58 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:27 PM EDT     6.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:52 PM EDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.63.74.54.954.63.72.71.60.90.6123.44.75.76.26.15.54.43.22.11.41.1

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
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Sun -- 12:38 AM EDT     1.19 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:36 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:17 AM EDT     -1.79 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:19 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:04 PM EDT     1.64 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     -2.11 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.10.70.3-0.2-0.9-1.5-1.8-1.7-1.1-0.30.51.31.61.40.90.5-0.2-1.1-1.7-2.1-1.9-1.2-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.