Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kiawah Island, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:32PM Sunday July 5, 2020 10:07 PM EDT (02:07 UTC) Moonrise 8:17PMMoonset 5:33AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 925 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers this evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..SE winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then showers and tstms likely after midnight.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 85 degrees.
AMZ300 925 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A weak stationary front will lift northward into Monday. An area of low pressure is then expected to develop and slowly move across the southeast through the latter part of the week, bringing a prolonged period of unsettled weather to the region.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kiawah Island, SC
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location: 32.59, -80.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 060130 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 930 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak stationary front will lift northward into Monday. An area of low pressure is then expected to develop and slowly move across the Southeast through the latter part of the week, bringing a prolonged period of unsettled weather to the region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. As of 925 PM: Shower coverage was increasing across the southern SC Lowcountry. I will update the forecast to increase PoPs to align with radar trends.

As of 8 PM: KCLX detected a large cluster of showers and isolated thunderstorms across SE GA, isolated showers across the SC Lowcountry. Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicated normalized CAPEs of 0.1 were located over SE GA. Based on the limited deep instability, I will update the forecast to limit the mention of TSRA to isolated for the tonight period. Temperatures appear on track.

Previous Discussion: Radar indicates a heavier band of convection approaching our area from the south. It's expected to cause impacts for the Altamaha River and vicinity in the upcoming hours. The convection is associated with a weak stationary front located to our south. This front is forecasted to lift north this evening, becoming located somewhere across our area overnight. Lift with the front will combine with some mid-level energy/waves. Additionally, deeper moisture will flow into our area from the south with PWATs climbing to 2-2.25". The combination of the lift and moisture will generate convection from south to north this evening. Models hint that the convection could decrease in both intensity and coverage late this evening before it redevelops along the coast and inland overnight. We tried to capture these trends in the hourly POPs, with them peaking in the chance or likely categories. Instability isn't overly impressive. MLCAPEs in the evening struggle to reach 1,000 J/kg before trending down. Likewise, DCAPEs are only a few hundred in the convective locations. So while we can't completely rule out a stronger storm with borderline damaging winds this evening, the overall severe risk is low. The more likely impact will be heavy rain from the convection. Luckily, there appears to be just enough steering flow to keep the storms moving. But if there is backbuilding, then localized flooding could become an issue. Temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Monday through Wednesday: Overall, the pattern looks quite active through the middle of the week. Aloft, broad and baggy troughing will prevail with a well defined embedded disturbance progged to track eastward across Georgia and the Carolinas Tuesday through Wednesday. At the surface, a weak stationary front will start off draped across the area from west to east on Monday. Models are then in good agreement that a weak area of low pressure will develop along the front somewhere across Georgia and South Carolina on Tuesday and track eastward through Wednesday. As the weak front lifts into the area on Monday, the environment will be able to tap into a deep reservoir of moisture with precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches. In fact, the deepest moisture is progged to arrive just ahead of and with the weak surface low Tuesday and Tuesday night when precipitable water increases to nearly 2.5 inches across the forecast area. This deep moisture along with the approaching disturbance is expected to combine to produce numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the period. Forecast rainfall amounts are in the 2-4 inch range, with some locally higher amounts possible. Temperatures are expected to top out in the mid to upper 80s each day thanks to widespread cloud cover, showers and thunderstorms.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Surface low pressure will likely be located off the Carolina coast at the start of the period. Large differences regarding the timing and evolution of the low exist between models, leading to a lower confidence forecast. The low should gradually lift northward through late week, although surface troughing will linger over the local area. Kept rain chances fairly middle of the road, with PoPs no higher than 50%. Temperatures will be seasonable.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A weak front continues to lift north and is accompanied by showers/T- storms.

KCHS: Showers should reach the terminal around 09Z with convection lowering ceilings to MVFR conditions around daybreak; a TEMPO group between 10Z and 14Z reflects this. It's possible that brief IFR conditions could occur within this time frame if a strong T-storm moves over the terminal, however, we opted to maintain MVFR in the TEMPO for now.

KSAV: Showers are nearing the terminal with an expected arrival time around 02Z. Convection looks more prominent inland, so opted to go with -SHRA instead of -TSRA. Timing is uncertain for the cessation of showers, yet they should dissipate in the afternoon hours.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions likely at times through at least mid week due to showers/thunderstorms.

MARINE. Tonight: A weak stationary front located just to our south will lift north this evening and overnight, orienting itself across the coastal waters by daybreak Monday. Generally, a weak pressure gradient is expected, which will lead to mostly SE winds of 10-15 kt this evening, shifting to the S and easing slightly after midnight. Seas will average 2-3 ft.

Monday through Friday: Modest southerly flow will prevail Monday and Tuesday with speeds generally topping out in the 10-15 knot range. An area of low pressure is then expected to pass by just inland through Wednesday and then move off the North Carolina coast by late in the week. Behind the low, winds should turn more westerly or even northwesterly for a time. Overall, conditions should stay below Small Craft Advisory thresholds though we will have to watch trends regarding the track and timing of the low and any potential impacts on winds and wind speeds.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for portions of the South Carolina coast for this evening's high tide, especially in and near Charleston.

Astronomical influences will maintain higher than normal tide levels through Monday. Minor coastal flooding will be possible around the time of the evening high tide, primarily along the South Carolina coast. In addition, the risk for heavy rain will only add to any tidal flooding.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ048>050. MARINE . None.

NEAR TERM . NED SHORT TERM . ETM LONG TERM . ETM AVIATION . BRM MARINE . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 13 mi68 min SE 12 G 14 82°F 1015.9 hPa (+1.0)
CHTS1 16 mi50 min SSE 11 G 12 82°F 85°F1015.8 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 18 mi83 min ESE 1.9 82°F 1015 hPa74°F
41033 27 mi60 min SSE 14 G 21 80°F 83°F1014.1 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 30 mi120 min SE 12 G 18 83°F 84°F1015 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 54 mi28 min SE 14 G 18 83°F 84°F1015.3 hPa71°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC10 mi73 minSE 710.00 miA Few Clouds81°F71°F74%1015.2 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC23 mi72 minSSE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F72°F74%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJZI

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmNW3NW4N5N5NW45S7SE7SE8S8S7S6S6S5
2 days agoCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N4N33NE4NE5NE6E56
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Tide / Current Tables for Kiawah River Bridge, South Carolina
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Kiawah River Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 02:57 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:05 AM EDT     5.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:57 PM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:41 PM EDT     6.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.51.70.4-0.10.41.52.84.155.45.14.12.71.30.1-0.30.21.434.65.96.76.96.2

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:16 AM EDT     -3.06 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 03:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:24 AM EDT     1.51 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:27 PM EDT     -2.37 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:57 PM EDT     1.76 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-3-2.8-1.8-0.50.81.51.41.20.90.2-0.8-1.7-2.3-2.3-1.5-0.50.61.51.81.71.51-0.1-1.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.