Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kiawah Island, SC

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Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 8:28PM Thursday July 18, 2019 5:15 AM EDT (09:15 UTC) Moonrise 8:56PMMoonset 6:51AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 322 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Today..W winds 10 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft this afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 87 degrees.
AMZ300 322 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. The area will remain situated between inland low pressure and offshore high pressure into early next week with above normal temperatures persisting. A stronger storm system could affect the area toward the middle of next week bringing higher rain chances and cooler temperatures.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kiawah Island, SC
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location: 32.59, -80.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 180759
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
359 am edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
The area will remain situated between inland low pressure and
offshore high pressure into early next week with above normal
temperatures persisting. A stronger storm system could affect
the area toward the middle of next week bringing higher rain
chances and cooler temperatures.

Near term through tonight
Record high minimums were set at both kchs and kcxm for july
17, but just missing it at ksav.

Pre-dawn hours: gravity waves were noted on radar heading toward
the coast, and that along with an increase in convergence has
allowed for isolated showers and t-storms to develop just
offshore parts of the immediate coast. Looks like the west-
southwest flow will keep the majority of them just over the
atlantic through daybreak, maybe brushing a few islands for a
short time. Otherwise we'll begin the day exceptionally warm
yet again, with temps at sunrise already 75-80f most places.

Today and tonight: a mid and upper trough oriented from the
eastern great lakes and into the southeast will shift into
closer proximity to the local region. Anticyclones will be
situated both east and west of this feature; one centered over
the middle and lower ms valley and the other out near bermuda.

Concurrently at the surface and in the lower levels a lee side
trough remains anchored in place, while the bermuda-azores high
stretches across florida.

Forecast soundings indicate a 3-4c cap that will take awhile to
break today, and the overall thermodynamics, although favorable
for convection, aren't as impressive as yesterday. In fact,
convective temps are in the middle 90s, suggesting that it'll
take a good portion of the day before convective initiation
develops. The cams support development after around 3 pm,
peaking during the evening, before diminishing before midnight.

We have isolated to scattered showers and t-storms during the
late day and evening time frame, with the highest coverage
around 40% across a large portion of the area inland from i-95
where upstream activity collides with the sea breeze.

Dcape is expected to be as great as 1200-1600 j kg, and with
quite a bit of dry air in the h7-h5 layer, there could be some
downbursts of wind leading to isolated strong or marginally
severe storms around 5-9 pm when the most intense updrafts are
anticipated. Locally heavy rainfall will also occur in a few
storms where training cells occur, again during a similar time
period.

The deep offshore flow and h8 temps around 19-20c will support
typical july heat, although with slightly lower heights aloft it
might not be quite as hot. The MOS guidance the past few days
has been a little underdone, while the rap and hrrr seem to have
had a better handle on MAX temps. And it is these models that we
have leaned toward regarding MAX temps this afternoon. This
would suggest mid and upper 90s inland from the intra-coastal,
with maybe some spots from allendale to tattnall, evans and
candler reaching 100f like yesterday.

There will be some mixing out of dew points far inland where
the hottest temps will occur, while where the pooling of higher
dew points happen the temps will be a little less extreme. Thus
we are arriving at heat indices peaking around 108-111f, and
highest near the us-17 corridor of charleston. Since it is
marginal at best we did not issue a heat advisory. Instead we'll
include in the hwo just in case our latest prognosis is not
completely accurate.

Once convection comes to an end early tonight, the rest of
tonight will be rainfree with late night convection to stay in
the atlantic. Downtown charleston appears to be the only climate
site that might challenge the record high min for july 18 if
rainfall does not occur at that site.

Short term Friday through Sunday
Moderate confidence this period. Surface troughing will prevail
mainly north and west of the area while ridging prevails to the
southeast. Meanwhile the upper-air pattern will generally feature
weak ridging.

This weather pattern will favor a few showers and or storms near
the coast and offshore each morning with scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly inland during the afternoon evening. No
significant risk for severe storms is expected given the general
pulse nature of the convection but of course we can't completely
rule out isolated severe storms with damaging winds each day because
of mesoscale boundaries like the sea breeze. Otherwise, the main
story will continue to be the above normal temperatures in the mid
to possibly upper 90s each afternoon away from the immediate coast.

Expect some mixing out of dewpoints during the afternoon, especially
inland, but heat indices should still peak close to 110 degrees for
much of the area. Thus, heat advisories cannot be ruled out for at
least part of the area. Overnight low temperatures will also remain
quite warm, possibly near record high levels.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
Moderate confidence this period. The low-level lee-side trough looks
to persist early in the week before deeper troughing likely moves
into the area for mid week. This will mean increasing rain chances
and lower temperatures, although hesitate to be too aggressive with
rain chances so far out given the rarity of summertime cold fronts
in this part of the country. Heat indices could still be near 110
degrees through Monday but the risk for heat advisories will likely
be over starting Tuesday.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
We should again see thunderstorms near the terminals late today
and early this evening, and we have included prob30 at both
kchs and ksav between 21z today and 02z Friday.

Extended aviation outlook: low risk of flight restrictions from
mainly afternoon evening showers and thunderstorms through early
next week with a better risk starting Tuesday as a cold front
approaches.

Marine
Today and tonight: the synoptic pattern will be basically the
same as it has been of late, featuring an inland trough to the
west-northwest, and the high pressure ridge axis just off to the
east-southeast. There is occasional tightening of the resulting
gradient, and that along with sea breeze circulations and
nocturnal low level jetting will lead to mostly S and SW winds
reaching as high as 15-20 kt with some higher gusts, mainly this
afternoon and much of tonight. Seas will average 2-4 ft, highest
north and east.

Waterspouts: although our local waterspout index is not quite as
high as yesterday, we do already have some convergent
boundaries over the nearby ocean. Plus, the SPC non-supercell
tornado parameter, which is a useful tool in forecasting
waterspouts, and it is somewhat supportive of their
development. If conditions become more favorable we will issue a
marine weather statement a bit later this morning.

Friday through Tuesday: inland low pressure and offshore high
pressure will lead to a fairly typical summertime pattern with
mainly south southwest winds through the period, generally highest
near the coast during the afternoon evening from the sea breeze.

However, not expecting any small craft advisories as significant
wave heights will be 4 feet or less.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term...

short term...

long term... Rjb
aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 13 mi75 min W 4.1 G 5.1 80°F 1017.2 hPa (-0.5)74°F
CHTS1 16 mi45 min WSW 6 G 8 82°F 86°F1016.7 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 18 mi90 min Calm 79°F 1017 hPa74°F
41033 27 mi67 min WSW 14 G 18 83°F 87°F1017.4 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 30 mi67 min W 9.7 G 12 84°F 85°F1016.7 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 54 mi25 min SW 12 G 16 84°F 85°F3 ft1016.9 hPa81°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC10 mi20 minWSW 510.00 miFair79°F73°F84%1016.9 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC23 mi79 minW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F72°F79%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6S8SE7SE8S7S8S5S11S11S10SW6
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE5SE6S6SE4CalmSE5SE5SE5CalmS3S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmE45S5S6SE6S8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Kiawah River Bridge, South Carolina
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Kiawah River Bridge
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Thu -- 03:50 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:59 AM EDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:49 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:27 PM EDT     6.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.83.31.70.60.20.81.93.14.24.95.14.83.92.71.40.50.20.823.44.65.66.26.1

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
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Thu -- 01:14 AM EDT     -2.58 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:22 AM EDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:20 PM EDT     -1.98 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:46 PM EDT     1.56 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:38 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2-2.6-2.3-1.5-0.40.71.41.410.70-0.8-1.5-1.9-1.8-1.2-0.30.61.41.61.31.10.6-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.