Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Billingsley, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:09PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 11:28 AM CST (17:28 UTC) Moonrise 5:00AMMoonset 3:23PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Billingsley, AL
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location: 32.63, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 211716 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1116 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

UPDATE. For 18Z Aviation.

SHORT TERM.

/Updated at 0251 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020/ Today and Tonight.

An arctic air mass has brought frigid temperatures to Alabama with early morning temperatures in the lower to middle 20s across the central portions of Alabama, with wind chill values in the middle to upper teens. Cold air stratocumulus has also pushed into areas west of I-65. The clouds will likely linger across west Alabama through the mid morning hours. Despite sunshine today, temperatures will slowly rise through the 20s and 30s this morning, topping out in the lower to middle 40s. Another cold night tonight as winds go calm. Skies will not be completely clear as models indicate cirrus moving in from the west. The clouds will not likely have much impact on temperatures, with lows tonight in the lower to middle 20s.

58/rose

LONG TERM. /Updated at 0251 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020/ Wednesday through Monday.

Shortwave ridging will push east of the area on Wednesday as a broad upper trough over the Central CONUS approaches. Mid and high level clouds will be increasing due to the subtropical jet and mid-level waves in the southwest flow ejecting out of the trough. At the surface, high pressure will remain in control over the eastern CONUS with a CAD wedge setting up. Winds shifting to easterly will result in milder high temperatures than previous days, but still below normal with cloudcover also playing a role. A southern stream shortwave trough approaches the area Thursday afternoon, with some interaction/phasing occurring with a northern stream wave and an upper low further to the north of the northern stream wave. The end result will be a closed upper low forming over the Ozarks Thursday night, gradually moving eastward and reaching the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast by Saturday night. At the surface, two weak surface lows will form, one moving from the Mid- Mississippi Valley through the Ohio Valley in association with the upper low, and a second low forming along a coastal front near the Texas Gulf Coast, and generally tracking near/along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts before developing into a nor'easter impacting the Northeast CONUS over the weekend.

Moist mid and upper-level isentropic lift will be in place Wednesday night, but easterly low-level flow will maintain a dry air mass at low-levels. Thus some virga will be present Wednesday night, but it will take until Thursday for low-levels to begin to moisten. Often this happens a bit quicker than expected, so included some low PoPs for Thursday morning. For Thursday afternoon, went with the wetter ECMWF solution as the NAM/GFS seem too slow to move QPF eastward relative to the moisture/lift seen in forecast soundings. It's not uncommon to get some rogue ice pellet/flurry reports near/before the onset of precipitation in these situations due to wet bulbing. But no impacts would be expected as temperatures will be above freezing, as most areas will see their lows Wednesday evening before gradually rising late in the night. Widespread rain is expected Thursday night as forcing from the trough and the front connecting the two surface lows act on a moist air mass. Rain should taper from southwest to northeast on Friday behind the front as a mid-level dry slot wraps into the upper low. Any surface-based instability should remain along or offshore of the Gulf Coast, so no strong/severe storms are expected. Did add in a small mention of thunder across the southern counties late Thursday night as very cold 500mb temperatures around -19C could allow for some weak elevated CAPE to develop. PWATs will be at or below 1 inch, limiting flooding concerns to just minor flooding of poor drainage as rainfall amounts around 1 inch are expected.

Fairly quiet weather conditions are expected through the rest of the extended period, with the main forecast challenge being low clouds wrapping around the upper low potentially making it into our northern counties at times. Cool but not particularly cold (for January) temperatures are expected. A shortwave in the northwest flow aloft moves through Sunday night/Monday, but moisture appears very limited at this time.

32/Davis

AVIATION. 18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions are expected through this cycle.

An upper level trough will continue to dig southeast away from our area today, moving across Southeast Georgia and South Carolina this afternoon and evening. Longwave ridging across the Plains will build over our area through the period. As a result, surface high pressure presently centered over the Mid Mississippi River Valley region will slide eastward across the Ohio River Valley region tonight through the day Wednesday.

Expect cloud cover to remain minimal with high bases due to low RH values through the vertical column. Despite light winds near the surface overnight and recent moist ground conditions, relatively low RH values should keep any potential for any reduction to visibility very low. Low-level winds will remain out of the north today ranging from 6-12 kts followed by lighter winds tonight 3-6 kts from the north. A more northeast component to the low- level winds are expected Wednesday with speeds generally 5-10 kts.

05

FIRE WEATHER.

Cold and dry conditions continue today with northerly winds. Relative humidity values will fall into the 30s this afternoon. Temperatures will be milder Wednesday while the air mass remains dry, and relative humidity values will fall to or just below 25 percent for a few hours during the afternoon. However, winds will be light, and KBDI values remain less than 100 due to recent wet conditions. Moisture and rain chances return for Thursday, with widespread rain expected Thursday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Gadsden 41 22 47 30 50 / 10 0 0 10 40 Anniston 40 22 50 32 52 / 10 0 0 10 30 Birmingham 41 23 49 36 52 / 0 0 0 10 60 Tuscaloosa 43 25 50 34 52 / 0 0 0 10 80 Calera 41 24 49 34 51 / 0 0 0 10 60 Auburn 42 25 49 34 51 / 10 0 0 10 30 Montgomery 45 25 51 34 55 / 0 0 0 10 50 Troy 44 24 51 34 55 / 0 0 0 10 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/. None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Maxwell Air Force Base / Montgomery, AL24 mi33 minN 710.00 miFair36°F16°F44%1033.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMXF

Wind History from MXF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9
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1 day agoNW13
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NW11NW12NW8W5NW6W5NW8NW7NW6NW10NW8N9N7N6N9N8NW10NW10NW10N11
2 days agoS6S5S7SE6S6S5SE4CalmCalmCalmSE3NW3NW4NW8N8NW13
G19
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station East Alabama
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.