Tuesday, July27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Billingsley, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 7:48PM Tuesday July 27, 2021 12:46 AM CDT (05:46 UTC) Moonrise 10:33PMMoonset 9:31AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Billingsley, AL
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location: 32.63, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 270022 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 722 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

UPDATE. Evening Update and 00Z Aviation.

SHORT TERM. /Updated at 0657 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

West to east outflow boundary was located from north of Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to near Anniston at this writing. Low level lapse rates have fallen in eastern areas and has relatively stabilized the eastern half of the boundary. The highest instability was over western areas. Another boundary has worked its way into the far southeastern areas and set off a few storms. There are pockets of instability here and there, so left chance of showers/storms in for the next few hours area wide. The convection should then diminish for the overnight hours for the most part. A pre-frontal trough was in southern Tennessee with a cold front near the Tennessee and Kentucky state line. Due to the main outflow boundary and several small scale boundaries, areas of convergence will be around Central Alabama overnight. Therefore, some patchy fog is possible mainly after midnight. The areas that get the fog will see it quickly mix out after sunrise. Overnight lows remain 70 to 75 degrees.

75

Previous short-term discussion: /Updated at 137 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/ Through Tuesday.

A broad ridge is centered over the Rocky Mountains and extends across the Deep South. We have temperatures in the lower 90s with dewpoints hovering around the mid 70s. While some isolated thunderstorms are beginning to develop, hot conditions will continue across the area for most of the afternoon with heat indices generally ranging from 102-104 degrees with brief rises to 105 degrees. A line of thunderstorms have entered northern AL along the leading edge of a weak surface front. This front will gradually track southward and assist in producing enhanced coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the next several hours, primarily across our northern counties. This evening, lingering activity will mainly focus across the south but will diminish before midnight.

Convergence weakens along the front tomorrow as it stalls across the area while undergoing frontolysis. Nonetheless, due to the abundant amounts of moisture in place, the weak forcing and destabilizing boundary layer will result in another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Heat indices remain a concern, but values should remain below Heat Advisory criteria before the increasing coverage of rainfall and spreading anvil tops helps to lower surface temperatures. Make sure to take extra precautions to maintain safety while spending time outdoors in the heat.

86

LONG TERM. /Updated at 405 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/ Tuesday night through Sunday.

No major changes were made to the extended. Latest guidance still shows elevated rain chances through Wednesday with a lingering boundary and tropical moisture present. Then we look for a down trend in convection for Thursday/Friday with Deep South ridging. Finally, we should see an uptick for pops again for the weekend as another frontal system pushes in from the TN Valley. Temperatures are trending similar to possible a degree or two warmer from the previous forecast. Will continue to leave heat mentioned in the Hazardous Weather Outlook through the end of the forecast with elevated heat indices on all days despite convection chances.

08

Previous long-term discussion: /Updated at 310 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/ Tuesday night through Sunday.

A 597 decameter anticyclone will be centered over the Central Plains to start the period. An associated mid-level ridge axis and anticyclonic flow aloft will begin to nose into North Alabama on Wednesday. This will keep showers/storms more isolated to widely scattered across the northern counties, but tropical moisture will remain supportive of scattered to numerous showers/storms across the southern counties. Temperatures will continue to warm, with potential for widespread 105 to 107 degree heat indices across the area. This ridge axis will become more prominent across the area on Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile a weak boundary and northerly flow aloft will bring in some lower PWATs/dry mid-level air which combined with the ridge will limit coverage of showers and storms. Dew points will mix out a little more Thursday afternoon, but temperatures will only continue to climb, keeping heat indices in the 105 to 107 range Thursday and Friday. Low-level thicknesses support temperatures in the upper 90s, but there is some uncertainty regarding whether that would be realized given the very wet ground conditions. But if temperatures are not as hot as forecast, dew points would probably end up being higher than forecast, so there will be heat index concerns either way. Deepening troughing over the Great Lakes/Northeast CONUS will cause the ridge to sink southward to the Southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast. This will cause northwest flow aloft to strengthen over the area with embedded perturbations. Moisture will pool ahead of another weak boundary approaching from the north, resulting in an increase in rain chances. Pooling moisture will continue to result in heat concerns, and will include this in the HWO.

32/Davis

AVIATION. 00Z TAF Discussion.

West to east outflow boundary was located from north of Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to near Anniston at this writing. Low level lapse rates have fallen in eastern areas and has relatively stabilized the eastern half of the boundary. Mentioned some at TCL for an hour or so and kept at least VCTS/VCSH due to pockets of instability here and there. The activity should end by 02z for the most part. Overnight conditions will be similar to several nights we have seen the past week. It appears that patchy fog will develop and knock areas to MVFR 3-5 miles. A few locations may see vis lower and briefly experience some ceilings. This restriction goes away quickly after sunrise. On Tuesday, additional boundaries will aide in focusing some storms. So higher chances of storms by Tuesday afternoon. Will start with PROB30 but will most likely need an upgrade. Winds will be light overnight and west to west northwest 7kts or less.

75

FIRE WEATHER.

A warm and moist airmass will persist across Central Alabama through the upcoming week. Minimum relative humidity values will remain elevated with scattered to numerous diurnal thunderstorms through mid week. Rain chances decrease some as we head into the latter half of the week, but minimum relative humidity values remain elevated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Gadsden 73 91 73 94 72 / 50 80 20 20 0 Anniston 73 91 74 94 74 / 50 80 30 30 0 Birmingham 74 92 74 94 75 / 50 70 20 30 10 Tuscaloosa 74 92 75 94 75 / 50 70 30 40 10 Calera 74 91 74 92 75 / 40 80 30 40 10 Auburn 73 91 74 91 74 / 30 80 40 60 10 Montgomery 75 94 75 94 76 / 30 80 40 60 20 Troy 74 94 74 92 74 / 30 70 50 70 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/. None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Maxwell Air Force Base / Montgomery, AL24 mi50 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds80°F70°F73%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMXF

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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmSW3SW3W4W4SW3W3NW3W4N8NW4CalmCalmCalmN3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW3CalmCalmSE5S5CalmS5S5S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmSE7SE5CalmN4NW3CalmCalmCalmS3Calm

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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