Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Billingsley, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 7:58PM Sunday July 5, 2020 3:06 PM CDT (20:06 UTC) Moonrise 8:45PMMoonset 6:00AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Billingsley, AL
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location: 32.63, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 051857 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 157 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

UPDATE. Long Term Update.

SHORT TERM. /Updated at 0106 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2020/

Weak troughing remains over the area aloft with lower-level ridging aloft positioned over the Caribbean. Surface high pressure was analyzed over Northeast West Virginia. A weak area of low pressure was analyzed over the Northern Gulf of Mexico.

Sounding and high-resolution modeling indicates the wet microburst risk is low today. We will be monitoring conditions with the expected increase in drier air aloft from the east, which should help limit development to the east but could potentially enhance microbursts within convection that develops in close proximity to the drier air moving in aloft.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over the next few hours with the best chances across our western and central counties. PoPs will be lower to the east as an easterly flow though the low and mid levels will advect in slightly drier air. Expect highs to range from the upper 80s east to the low 90s west and central.

Shower and storm chances are expected to linger longer this evening and overnight compared to recent days across portions of our south and southwest counties due to a weak surface low pressure area across the far Northern Gulf of Mexico. Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s north to the low 70s south.

The surface low to our south is forecast to lift northeast late tonight through the day on Monday, tracking roughly along the Interstate 85 corridor across our forecast area. The result will be likely shower and storm chances across roughly the southeastern two-thirds of the forecast area during much of the day on Monday with scattered showers and storms elsewhere. As a result, expect highs to range from the low 80s east to the upper 80s west.

05

Previous short-term discussion: /Updated at 0341 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2020/

Today through Monday.

Alabama will continue to be on the east side of an weak upper low situated over southwest Mississippi. Easterly flow over Alabama will draw in a pocket of mid level dry air from Georgia today. This will result in lower rain chances across east Alabama, with slightly higher rain chances elsewhere. Forecast soundings indicate lower SBCAPE values today due to slightly cooler surface temperatures and dewpoints. DCAPEs value also lower than past few days, so diurnal storms should not be a strong as past few days. Showers and storms will linger into the evening hours, and gradually decrease in coverage overnight. The upper low over Mississippi will shift eastward on Monday and pull deeper Gulf moisture northward. Combined with widespread lift with the upper low, numerous showers and thunderstorms expected on Monday, mainly south of I-20. The cloud cover and rain will hold down temperatures on Monday with highs only in the middle to upper 80s.

58/rose

LONG TERM. /Updated at 0151 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2020/

Guidance continues to show minor run to run variations between the amplitude/strength and positioning of the low relative to Central AL, but this is having little effect on our progged rain chances due to it's close proximity. The low should become situated over the Carolinas by Wednesday morning although an upstream shortwave trough will continue to provide lift for additional rainfall through Thursday as it slowly moves eastward across the area. Will still need to watch our heat indices for the end of the week as plenty of low-level moisture will remain in place while ridging to our west begins building in behind the exiting trough. I maintained the 40 to 50 percent PoP in the forecast for Friday and Saturday due to the moist low-level conditions (PWATs ~2 inches) as another weak shortwave rotates around the ridge and moves across. Any activity will primarily be diurnally driven, and the potential for a few strong storms may develop as dry, northwesterly flow aloft advects over the moist, unstable airmass below.

86

Previous long-term discussion: /Updated at 0341 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2020/

Monday night through Saturday.

A weak surface low begins to lift northeastward from the Northern Gulf Coast through Southern AL Monday night. This will lead to continued rain/thunderstorm chances through the night into Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms become more widespread Tuesday afternoon and evening with support of persistent weak upper level low even as the associated surface low lifts eastward into Georgia. While we could see a few stronger storms, the chance for organized severe weather is limited due to the lack of environmental shear.

Another weak shortwave lingers across the area Wednesday leading to yet another afternoon of widespread showers/thunderstorms. Synoptically, we become wedged between a building ridge to our west and the deepening trough on the East Coast, which will allow for a series of shortwaves to slide through the area Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. It's probable that we'll see numerous showers/thunderstorms each afternoon through the end of the week. There will likely be decreasing coverage through the overnight hours, but some shower/storm activity could linger.

A surface high pressure system in the Gulf slowly builds northward through the week as well. By Thursday and Friday, I think we'll see an increase in warm air advection with the general wind flow shifting out of the west, bringing the warmer air mass from Southern TX into the area. We could start seeing some heat stress concerns Thursday into Friday depending on how that air mass is modified as it builds into Central AL. For now, heat indices are forecast to be near 100 degrees on Thursday and be in the 100-105 degree range for a good portion of the area both Friday and Saturday. The key will be how much coverage of afternoon shower/storms we get and when they develop, so it's much too soon to include heat impacts in the hazardous weather outlook.

25/Owen

AVIATION. 18Z TAF Discussion.

Isolated showers and storms will again develop through the afternoon and persist into the early evening hours. The chances today will be greater across the south and west and the activity in these areas is expected to linger longer into the evening hours tonight.

A weak surface low will track northeast out of the Central Gulf of Mexico, moving across much of our southeast counties Monday. Expect high rain and storm chances with low clouds across our southern and much of our central counties tomorrow with scattered showers and storms elsewhere.

05

FIRE WEATHER.

The warm/moist airmass will also continue to be in place today and through much of next week. Numerous showers/thunderstorms expected Monday through at least Wednesday. Min RHs will be in the 50-60% range today, rising to 60-80% for next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Gadsden 70 85 70 86 71 / 20 70 50 90 40 Anniston 71 85 70 85 71 / 10 80 60 90 40 Birmingham 72 87 72 87 72 / 30 80 50 90 40 Tuscaloosa 73 88 71 86 72 / 40 80 50 90 40 Calera 71 85 71 85 71 / 40 80 60 90 40 Auburn 71 84 71 82 71 / 20 80 60 90 50 Montgomery 73 86 72 85 72 / 40 80 60 90 50 Troy 72 85 72 85 71 / 40 80 60 90 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/. None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Maxwell Air Force Base / Montgomery, AL24 mi71 minSE 8 G 1510.00 miA Few Clouds91°F70°F50%1012.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMXF

Wind History from MXF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S4SE10S8S3--CalmS4CalmCalmCalmN3E4CalmCalmCalmSE3E4CalmE4NE3E7E7SE8
G15
1 day agoNE3CalmN4E5S4S4CalmSE3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE4NE4NE4NE4CalmS4SE6S5
2 days agoNW7W4NW4NW6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmNW4NW3N3CalmCalmN3N7NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station East Alabama
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.