Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Billingsley, AL
May 6, 2024 8:40 AM CDT (13:40 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:52 AM Sunset 7:32 PM Moonrise 4:47 AM Moonset 6:12 PM |
Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 061128 AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 628 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT MON MAY 6 2024
A cluster of strong thunderstorms over northeast Mississippi was tracking east and will clip northern Marion and Winston early this morning. Expect frequent lightning and wind gusts up to 30 mph.
For today, upper heights will rise slightly and cap convective development for areas south of I-20, with better chance for storms near the southern flank of the storms coming out of Mississippi.
A slight chance of early evening storms north of I-20, with rain free conditions likely overnight and into early Tuesday morning.
Instability really ramps up on Tuesday with forecast soundings from a majority of the CAMS showing surface based CAPE near 3000 J/kg and DCAPE 1200-1500 J/kg. A weak upper level trough will move across Mississippi and into west Alabama Tuesday afternoon. This will help initiate strong to severe storms for areas along and north of the Interstate 20/59 corridor.
58/rose
LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT MON MAY 6 2024
Key messages:
- The warmest day of the spring so far is expected Wednesday with heat indices in the mid 90s.
- One or more rounds of showers and storms will result in a threat of damaging winds, large hail, and localized minor flooding Wednesday night possibly into Thursday, especially across the northern half of Central Alabama. However, confidence on details remains low at this time.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms may linger into the evening hours on Tuesday before weakening, though some activity could persist across the far northern counties in closer proximity to a stalled cold front and lingering boundaries.
A rex block will be in place to start the period with an upper low over the Northern Plains and an anticyclone over the Canadian Prairies. The upper low will eventually split with the majority of its vorticity going into a trough over the Great Lakes by Thursday and a lesser portion going to an upper low over the Southwest CONUS as part of a developing omega block over the eastern Pacific/West Coast. Meanwhile a strong subtropical ridge will be centered over the Bay of Campeche. At the surface the stalled frontal boundary will lift northward as a warm front across the Ohio Valley in response to a broad but sub-1000mb area of low pressure moving from Missouri to the southern Great Lakes. A fairly strong late spring cold front will eventually move through Central Alabama Thursday and Thursday night.
Dry air aloft and weak ridging should keep any diurnal convection isolated to widely scattered Wednesday while strong low-level southwesterly flow results in the warmest day of the spring so far. Those that are especially sensitive to heat impacts may need to take precautions given the lack of acclimation to the heat this early in the season. Robust convection should develop to our northwest ahead of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening in a very unstable and sheared air mass, aided by a vort max moving through the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This convection will probably eventually grow upscale into one or more MCSs potentially moving towards our northern counties Wednesday night aided by a modest LLJ. With weak forcing there is quite a bit of model spread regarding timing as is typical in this setup. The ECMWF and its ensembles bring convection in during the evening hours while other guidance holds off until after midnight. An earlier timing would coincide with more instability and a greater threat for severe storms, but given mild overnight lows and steep mid-level lapse rates with an EML there would still be at least an isolated severe threat with the later overnight timing. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threat. The tornado threat while very low may be non-zero. Some guidance does indicate some marginal SRH developing depending on whether a secondary surface low forms.
Given the uncertainty over timing, convective mode, and whether storms will be surface-based, will hold off on any brief tornado mention at this time.
Fast zonal flow will be in place Thursday as the cold front moves in, with little in the way of height falls until evening when troughing begins to deepen over the eastern CONUS. An impressive overlap of CAPE and shear may be present, but this will be highly dependent on how much convection occurs Wednesday night and Thursday morning and any leftover cold pools. Additionally, low-level flow will be veering and weakening, limiting convergence, while moisture dries up aloft. There will probably end up being at least an isolated threat of severe storms, but will hold off on messaging past Wednesday night given the limiting factors mentioned above. There is also the possibility for an MCS to move along the Gulf Coast Thursday night which could cause locally heavy rainfall and some stronger storms across our southern counties.
Behind the front, a welcomed relief from the heat is expected going into the weekend with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 50s. There are some model disagreements regarding potential shortwave activity by Sunday, but ensembles support keeping PoPs at 10 percent or less on Sunday.
32/Davis
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT MON MAY 6 2024
Sct-bkn clouds with bases arnd 2000 ft agl will persist along and north of the I-20 corridor thru 16Z, then mostly sct clouds with bases arnd 5000 ft agl. VFR conds after 16Z with low clouds developing after 09Z. Isolated storms possible today but well north of any TAF site.
58/rose
FIRE WEATHER
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible each day through Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will average 0.5-1.0 inch under heavier storms. Afternoon minimum RH values will be above 40-45 percent each afternoon. 20-foot winds should average less than 10 mph from the south to southwest, though gusts to around 25 mph will be possible at times.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 86 66 86 67 / 30 20 40 30 Anniston 86 67 88 67 / 20 20 30 30 Birmingham 87 69 87 70 / 20 20 40 30 Tuscaloosa 86 70 88 70 / 20 10 50 30 Calera 86 69 87 69 / 20 10 30 30 Auburn 86 68 88 69 / 20 10 10 10 Montgomery 89 69 90 71 / 20 10 10 10 Troy 89 68 90 69 / 20 10 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 628 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT MON MAY 6 2024
A cluster of strong thunderstorms over northeast Mississippi was tracking east and will clip northern Marion and Winston early this morning. Expect frequent lightning and wind gusts up to 30 mph.
For today, upper heights will rise slightly and cap convective development for areas south of I-20, with better chance for storms near the southern flank of the storms coming out of Mississippi.
A slight chance of early evening storms north of I-20, with rain free conditions likely overnight and into early Tuesday morning.
Instability really ramps up on Tuesday with forecast soundings from a majority of the CAMS showing surface based CAPE near 3000 J/kg and DCAPE 1200-1500 J/kg. A weak upper level trough will move across Mississippi and into west Alabama Tuesday afternoon. This will help initiate strong to severe storms for areas along and north of the Interstate 20/59 corridor.
58/rose
LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT MON MAY 6 2024
Key messages:
- The warmest day of the spring so far is expected Wednesday with heat indices in the mid 90s.
- One or more rounds of showers and storms will result in a threat of damaging winds, large hail, and localized minor flooding Wednesday night possibly into Thursday, especially across the northern half of Central Alabama. However, confidence on details remains low at this time.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms may linger into the evening hours on Tuesday before weakening, though some activity could persist across the far northern counties in closer proximity to a stalled cold front and lingering boundaries.
A rex block will be in place to start the period with an upper low over the Northern Plains and an anticyclone over the Canadian Prairies. The upper low will eventually split with the majority of its vorticity going into a trough over the Great Lakes by Thursday and a lesser portion going to an upper low over the Southwest CONUS as part of a developing omega block over the eastern Pacific/West Coast. Meanwhile a strong subtropical ridge will be centered over the Bay of Campeche. At the surface the stalled frontal boundary will lift northward as a warm front across the Ohio Valley in response to a broad but sub-1000mb area of low pressure moving from Missouri to the southern Great Lakes. A fairly strong late spring cold front will eventually move through Central Alabama Thursday and Thursday night.
Dry air aloft and weak ridging should keep any diurnal convection isolated to widely scattered Wednesday while strong low-level southwesterly flow results in the warmest day of the spring so far. Those that are especially sensitive to heat impacts may need to take precautions given the lack of acclimation to the heat this early in the season. Robust convection should develop to our northwest ahead of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening in a very unstable and sheared air mass, aided by a vort max moving through the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This convection will probably eventually grow upscale into one or more MCSs potentially moving towards our northern counties Wednesday night aided by a modest LLJ. With weak forcing there is quite a bit of model spread regarding timing as is typical in this setup. The ECMWF and its ensembles bring convection in during the evening hours while other guidance holds off until after midnight. An earlier timing would coincide with more instability and a greater threat for severe storms, but given mild overnight lows and steep mid-level lapse rates with an EML there would still be at least an isolated severe threat with the later overnight timing. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threat. The tornado threat while very low may be non-zero. Some guidance does indicate some marginal SRH developing depending on whether a secondary surface low forms.
Given the uncertainty over timing, convective mode, and whether storms will be surface-based, will hold off on any brief tornado mention at this time.
Fast zonal flow will be in place Thursday as the cold front moves in, with little in the way of height falls until evening when troughing begins to deepen over the eastern CONUS. An impressive overlap of CAPE and shear may be present, but this will be highly dependent on how much convection occurs Wednesday night and Thursday morning and any leftover cold pools. Additionally, low-level flow will be veering and weakening, limiting convergence, while moisture dries up aloft. There will probably end up being at least an isolated threat of severe storms, but will hold off on messaging past Wednesday night given the limiting factors mentioned above. There is also the possibility for an MCS to move along the Gulf Coast Thursday night which could cause locally heavy rainfall and some stronger storms across our southern counties.
Behind the front, a welcomed relief from the heat is expected going into the weekend with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 50s. There are some model disagreements regarding potential shortwave activity by Sunday, but ensembles support keeping PoPs at 10 percent or less on Sunday.
32/Davis
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT MON MAY 6 2024
Sct-bkn clouds with bases arnd 2000 ft agl will persist along and north of the I-20 corridor thru 16Z, then mostly sct clouds with bases arnd 5000 ft agl. VFR conds after 16Z with low clouds developing after 09Z. Isolated storms possible today but well north of any TAF site.
58/rose
FIRE WEATHER
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible each day through Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will average 0.5-1.0 inch under heavier storms. Afternoon minimum RH values will be above 40-45 percent each afternoon. 20-foot winds should average less than 10 mph from the south to southwest, though gusts to around 25 mph will be possible at times.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 86 66 86 67 / 30 20 40 30 Anniston 86 67 88 67 / 20 20 30 30 Birmingham 87 69 87 70 / 20 20 40 30 Tuscaloosa 86 70 88 70 / 20 10 50 30 Calera 86 69 87 69 / 20 10 30 30 Auburn 86 68 88 69 / 20 10 10 10 Montgomery 89 69 90 71 / 20 10 10 10 Troy 89 68 90 69 / 20 10 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
East Alabama
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