Monday, August26, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Hill, TX

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 8:01PM Monday August 26, 2019 4:37 AM CDT (09:37 UTC) Moonrise 1:37AMMoonset 4:12PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Hill, TX
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 32.63, -96.99     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus64 kfwd 260852
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
352 am cdt Mon aug 26 2019

Short term
Today and tonight
one more oppressively hot day is expected across the entire state
of texas where actual air temperatures may top out as high as 115
degrees in the midland odessa area this afternoon. We won't be
that hot here, but as the low level thermal ridge expands eastward
this afternoon, we'll see 850 mb temps surge to near +30c across
our western counties. Assuming a deeply mixed boundary layer, this
should support surface temperatures in the 103-106 degree range
across our western counties. We should see highs in the upper 90s
to 103 degrees a little farther east. We'll also have to contend
with an ample supply of low level moisture as dewpoints are in the
low to mid 70s areawide this morning. These will likely mix down
into upper 60s by afternoon resulting in heat indices of 107-112
degree during peak heating. The only saving grace will be a brisk
southerly breeze feeding into an area of low pressure ahead of a
cold front in the central plains. The 10-15 kt wind will help ease
the intense solar load on human skin for those working outside,
but it will still be quite hot and necessary precautions should be
taken to stay cool. The current heat advisory will remain in
effect for the entire area through this afternoon.

Attention tonight turns to the aforementioned cold front in the
central plains which will be driven southward by a strong upstream
shortwave swinging through kansas and nebraska. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop late this afternoon along the frontal boundary
draped across kansas and northwest missouri. As 500 mb flow
strengthens to 50-60 kt during the nighttime hours and low level
inflow of 30-35 kt develops via a southern plains low level jet,
the complex of thunderstorms is expected to strengthen and expand
southwestward along the front into central oklahoma by late
evening. A fairly well developed MCS should continue to move
southeast into the ARKLATEX during the overnight hours into early
Tuesday morning. There is a little uncertainty as to how intense
the complex will be overnight tonight toward morning as low level
inflow will veer and weaken, but there is pretty high confidence
that the system will make it into north texas late tonight given
ample moisture and instability present. Best chances for
rain storms will be north of i-20 toward the red river and into
our northeastern counties. We've raised pops late overnight into
the 40-70% range for these areas. To the south of i-20, rain
chances will remain slim overnight. At this time, the threat for
severe weather is generally low given the expected weakening trend
toward morning, but damaging wind gusts would be possible with
any organized bowing line segments that linger. Overnight lows
will drop into the lower 70s north of i-20 and remain in the mid
upper 70s to the south.


Long term
Tuesday through next weekend
after one of the hotter, if not the hottest days of the year
today, the pattern changes quickly to a more wet and seasonal setup
moving into the mid week period... Particularly for areas along
and north of i-20. The expanding mid level ridge overhead is
forecast to retreat back west in response to a strong mid level
impulse tracking southward from the ozarks toward east texas and
the lower mississippi valley on Tuesday. This disturbance will
support a late summer surface cold front southward into the red
river valley, and possibly toward i-20 later in the day depending
on any assistance from a potential convective outflow and cold
pool from morning thunderstorms.

I expect the best coverage of a cluster of strong... Mostly
elevated thunderstorms to be east of i-35w and north of i-20, as
veered, low level inflow at 925mb of 20-25 knots feeds into and
over the shallow frontal inversion across our far northern
counties. More isolated-scattered storm coverage should occur
further west toward northwest texas and our western counties
Tuesday morning. With a hot and unstable airmass south-southwest
of the cold front and any remnant storm outflow boundaries, storms
will likely transition to becoming surface-based with gusty
downbursts a potential as we progress toward the late morning into
early afternoon hours. Despite high freezing levels, pockets of
dry air within the mid level environment will support evaporative
cooling and combine with steep mid level lapse rates for the
production of at least smaller hail with more intense updrafts.

In addition to the typical storm hazards, copious moisture will be
pooling in the vicinity of the cold front with precipitable water
values reaching or exceeding 2-2.25 inches. The multi-cellular,
slow-moving nature of storms will likely result in localized
torrential downpours and the potential for localized flooding or
flash flooding... Particularly across our northeast counties on
Tuesday. Recent dry weather for most locations will allow them to
take on some water, though high rainfall rates will likely
produce rapid run off and an isolated potential for flash flooding.

The other quandary is how far southwest showers and storms,
associated cloud cover, and storm outflows move southward and
impact high temperatures. Given these uncertainties, we will not
extend our current heat advisory into central texas for Tuesday
just yet; nor will we be issuing any hydrologic watches across
north texas regarding the potential for very heavy rainfall at
this time.

Look for some respite in thunderstorm coverage and intensity as
we move into the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday. The first
mid level impulse should be exiting our CWA to the southeast with
a window of increasing subsidence, along with higher mid level
heights across central texas. I cannot rule out widely scattered
residual activity during MAX heating in vicinity of the stationary
front or residual outflow boundaries, but for the most part, we
will be in a relative "lull" with regard to convective activity.

The "lull" doesn't lag long, however, as copious moisture pooling
along the stationary front(where exactly that will be remains to
be seen) will interact with the next mid level impulse approaching
the area from the northwest later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Similar to Tuesday, southerly low level inflow near 20 knots early
Wednesday morning will feed gulf moisture into and over the
shallow frontal inversion and correlate with increasing mid level
ascent for a second round of showers and storms after midnight
through the mid-late morning hours Wednesday. Determining where
the best coverage of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will be
dependent on where the low level boundary actually sets up and how
far south the mid level impulse tracks.

For now i'll play the odds of the more likely coverage of showers
and thunderstorms remaining east of us 281 and mainly north of
i-20, but this will need to be better resolved once our first
system has come to pass and where all the low-level mesoscale
features end up. Regardless, gusty winds, frequent lightning,
small hail, and localized heavy rainfall and flooding will all be
potential impacts once again as we move through the day Wednesday.

We should see enough of a cold pool to push the diluted surface
boundary into central texas Wednesday and Wednesday evening. With
heights aloft slowly rising and residual subsidence countering
strong heating in advance of our surface front, i'll only
maintain low chances across the area, slightly higher across
central texas near the old front. High temperatures Wednesday will
be dependent on how convection evolves, then devolves later in
the day. For now, I expect it to feel darn right "cool" across our
northern CWA with highs 85 to 90 -- with warmer lower to middle
90s across central texas.

The strong southwest us upper high expands back east across the
state for the late week period, but is not expected to be overly
strong. Afternoon high temperatures each day will reach into the
the lower-mid 90s. I cannot rule out isolated showers or thunderstorms
diurnally each afternoon, but for the most part the main storm
track aloft will have retreated back north and northeast further
away from north and central texas. A much weaker cold front looks
to stall near or north of the red river valley the middle of next
weekend. A mid level impulse will graze the area to our
northeast, but the mid level anticyclone overhead appears to hold
it's ground a bit more than what we'll see around mid week. I'll
continue to carry some low coverage pops, especially north of i-20
with this in mind. Otherwise, look for mostly seasonal
temperatures and with the isolated nature of rainfall, I see no
need for folks to be changing any weekend plans at this point.


Aviation issued 1132 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
06z tafs
no aviation weather concerns through Monday evening with only a
few daytime CU and scattered high clouds. A south to southeast
wind less than 12 knots overnight will increase between 12 and 16
knots during the day Monday along with some higher gusts.


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 102 81 95 76 90 0 10 50 40 50
waco 102 79 100 78 96 0 0 20 20 30
paris 98 75 86 71 84 5 20 60 50 50
denton 101 79 89 73 87 0 20 60 40 50
mckinney 101 79 89 74 87 5 20 60 40 50
dallas 102 82 94 76 90 0 10 50 40 50
terrell 101 80 93 76 91 5 10 40 30 50
corsicana 101 79 98 77 91 5 5 20 20 40
temple 102 79 100 76 96 0 0 10 20 20
mineral wells 103 77 97 72 90 0 10 30 40 50

Fwd watches warnings advisories
Heat advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 7 pm cdt this evening
for txz091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Arlington Municipal Airport, TX6 mi2.7 hrsSSE 810.00 miA Few Clouds85°F73°F68%1006.7 hPa
Grand Prairie, Grand Prairie Municipal Airport, TX6 mi2 hrsS 610.00 miFair84°F71°F67%1008.5 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX8 mi2.7 hrsS 910.00 miA Few Clouds83°F73°F72%1006.8 hPa
Lancaster Airport, TX15 mi62 minSSE 710.00 miFair81°F73°F80%1008.5 hPa
Fort Worth Spinks Airport, TX17 mi2 hrsS 67.00 miFair83°F73°F73%1008.5 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX18 mi2.7 hrsSSE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F73°F63%1006.9 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX19 mi2.7 hrsS 910.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F73°F70%1006.3 hPa
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX24 mi2.7 hrsSSE 810.00 miA Few Clouds83°F73°F72%1006.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGKY

Wind History from GKY (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmE3--CalmCalm--S4S4--S7Calm6SE7E6SE6E10SE9SE6E5SE6--SE10--S8
1 day agoSE3CalmSE6SE5SE4S4S6S5S735E46E10SE7SE9W5W6NW3----CalmCalm--
2 days ago--S7S7S5S3--S7S863E74E9NE14

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (5,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.