Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 2:22 AM   Moonset 1:18 PM

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FXUS64 KFWD 020717 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 149 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New Short Term, Aviation, Long Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Friday Morning/

A gradually organizing line of thunderstorms with embedded bowing segments is pushing through the western fringes of our area of responsibility at the time of writing this discussion, though a weakening trend has taken shape over the last hour or so. As this line of storms evolves, our damaging wind threat may increase through the early morning hours. Our greatest potential for severe weather will exist west of the I-35 corridor overnight tonight, although instances of severe weather will be possible into the morning hours as this line of storms moves through. Our main concerns with severe weather potential continues to include damaging winds and flash flooding, with lower potential for large hail and isolated tornadoes. Despite the rather progressive nature of this convective system, areas across South and Central Texas will see continued exacerbation of flooding issues with the current Flood Watch still set to last through this afternoon.

Much of this activity will have exited our area to the east by this afternoon. However, this window of quiet weather will be short-lived as our next round of dry line convection fires off once again to our west. This activity will also be supported by a passing shortwave aloft, which will provide more large-scale ascent. This could very well play out in a similar fashion to tonight's activity, with organizing clusters of thunderstorms pushing in across portions of Central Texas through this evening into the early morning hours on Friday. Of course the environment will be supportive of thunderstorms across portions of North Texas as well, and severe weather will once again be on deck. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns, with a low- end tornado threat as well. Continual waves of heavy rainfall will likely continue the flash flooding concern across Central Texas as well. To echo our discussions as of late, please continue to monitor the weather over the next 12 to 24 hours as our active stretch of mid-spring weather persists in our forecast.

Reeves

LONG TERM
/New/ /Friday through Wednesday/

Friday through Sunday will remain unsettled with multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. The good news is that the overall severe weather threat will be low. The passage of an upper trough across the Central Plains Thursday night will send a weak cold front southward Friday. The front is progged to move only partially through North Texas before retreating back to the north Friday afternoon and evening. Lift supplied by the front, in combination with larger scale lift from the passage of a subtle shortwave, will result in scattered showers and storms. Our confidence in the movement of the front is low so we will keep PoPs in the 20 to 40 percent range both Friday and Friday evening.
There should be a brief lull in precipitation overnight Friday when the initial shortwave passes to the east and front temporarily moves north of the Red River. The front will return on Saturday once another shortwave in the northern branch of the jet stream pushes through the Central Plains. This secondary push will be stronger than the first, sending the front deeper into the CWA Lift along the front will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially late Saturday night into Sunday morning when a shortwave rotates across the region. Once the shortwave passes to the east, storms will temporarily end but will return again on Monday with the approach of the dryline from the west and yet another shortwave. We will keep PoPs on Monday low for now since a cap of warm air will likely be in place. Once the early week shortwave moves to the east, the upper pattern will become more zonal which should limit convection, but with plenty of low level moisture in place, any subtle disturbance could produce a shower or storm.

Temperatures Friday through the weekend will be near seasonal normals with highs in the lower and middle 80s and lows in the 60s.
Southwesterly winds will return to about the western half of the forecast areas Tuesday and Wednesday pushing afternoon highs into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR Ceilings and Thunderstorm Potential Overnight.

A line of storms is currently racing across our coverage area to the west of the D10 TAF sites, with ongoing thunderstorms over Waco at the time of writing this discussion. These thunderstorms will push through the TAF sites around the 08-11z timeframe. As this moves through, expect a brief one to two hour window of westerly winds that could gust upwards of 35 knots. These will be short-lived and will quickly return light and southerly once this activity passes off to our east through Thursday morning.

On top of this, MVFR ceilings will linger through much of the period with a brief window of clearing and VFR conditions on Thursday afternoon. There is low end potential for IFR ceilings across all TAF sites, but current confidence only allows for an inclusion in the Waco TAF. MVFR ceilings will return across all TAF sites as we move into late Thursday night. Additional potential for thunderstorms will also exist through early Friday morning, but this will be further assessed in the 12z package.

Reeves


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 68 81 69 81 / 50 50 30 30 50 Waco 80 69 81 69 81 / 70 30 30 20 40 Paris 77 65 81 66 79 / 80 50 40 20 50 Denton 81 64 81 66 80 / 40 40 30 30 50 McKinney 80 66 81 67 80 / 50 50 40 30 50 Dallas 82 68 83 69 82 / 60 50 30 20 50 Terrell 80 67 81 67 81 / 60 50 40 20 50 Corsicana 81 69 83 69 82 / 70 40 40 20 40 Temple 81 69 81 69 81 / 60 30 20 20 30 Mineral Wells 84 66 82 66 82 / 30 40 30 30 50

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ121-122-134-135- 142>148-156>162-174-175.

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