Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Folly Beach, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 6:08PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 12:03 PM EST (17:03 UTC) Moonrise 3:27AMMoonset 1:42PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 1007 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020
Rest of today..Variable winds 5 kt, becoming S this afternoon. A chance of showers.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Areas of fog.
Wed..W winds 5 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers.
Wed night..NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain, mainly in the evening.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 58 degrees.
AMZ300 1007 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A warm front will move north through the area today, before a cold front pushes through on Wednesday. Colder high pressure will then build in from the northwest through the end of the week as low pressure passes offshore Thursday into Friday. High pressure will prevail over the weekend, before another storm system impacts the area early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Folly Beach, SC
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location: 32.66, -79.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 181537 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1037 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will move north through the area today, before a cold front pushes through on Wednesday. Colder high pressure will then build in from the northwest through the end of the week as low pressure passes offshore Thursday into Friday. High pressure will prevail over the weekend, before another storm system impacts the area early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Today: No significant changes to the previous forecast. Main challenge is rain coverage/timing. Latest radar imagery indicates light to moderate rain, mainly north of around I-16 in GA and think this will continue to be the trend through the rest of the day as the surface warm front slowly moves north through the area. Saw some lightning strikes earlier near the CSRA due to some mid-level instability and could see a little surface- based instability develop this afternoon, mainly in GA, but overall we aren't expecting many thunderstorms. Otherwise, cloudy with highs near 70 most locales, except lower to mid 70s across much of the GA Coastal Empire where cloud cover will be a bit less.

Tonight: Another weak upper-level disturbance will approach the area and this combined with remaining high levels of moisture through out the atmosphere will continue the threat for showers, especially in the north. Rain chances range from categorical in the northwest and north to chance in the south. Mild lows near 60 are expected.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A cold front will drop south/southeastward through the area on Wednesday, likely clearing the Altamaha by late afternoon. PWats well above climatology (over 1.5 inches) and a steady stream of shortwave energy passing overhead will support likely to categorical PoPs for most locations. Models continue to hit interior zones and southeast South Carolina for best coverage and QPF. With the bulk of activity to occur post-front, thunder is not expected to be a concern. There should be somewhat of a lull in precipitation Wednesday evening into the overnight period.

On Thursday, the area will be positioned between high pressure to the northwest and the front lingering to the south and east. An upper disturbance will swing through, inducing cyclogenesis off the GA/SC coast. Another round of rain will spread into the area, and the forecast features categorical (90%) PoPs. Average rainfall totals for this batch should average 0.75 to 1 inch across most locations, slightly less across far southeast Georgia. In addition to the wet and cool conditions, the tight pressure gradient will support gusty northeast winds. Conditions could necessitate a Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Moultrie, especially Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

Precipitation will begin to exit the area Thursday night, as the main trough axis swings through and the low gets shunted further to the east. Concurrently, strong cold advection will take place. At this point, it appears the axis of deep moisture will be pushing offshore while the colder air moves in. Given the lack of alignment between these features, any winter weather should remain out of the forecast area.

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Friday. The arrival of much drier air will end any lingering precipitation and allow clouds to clear. It will likely be a bit breezy, especially in the morning, before the pressure gradient starts to relax.

Temperatures will be warmest on Wednesday (near normal) then will drop considerably Thursday and Friday. Highs for those days are expected to peak in the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows Thursday night back into the 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Models are in fairly good agreement in the general pattern through early next week. High pressure will drift over the Carolinas Saturday and eventually into the Atlantic on Sunday. Low pressure will then lift out of the Southern Plains and into the eastern U.S. early next week, bringing the next chance of rain to the area. Temperatures will gradually moderate through the period.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Periodic MVFR/IFR cigs this morning at KCHS/KSAV with some heavier showers possible, maybe even a thunderstorm. Expect a general lowering of ceilings through the day into tonight as a warm front lifts north through the area, with some vsby reduction possible. However, after late afternoon the bulk of the steadier/heavier rain should remain west of the terms through tonight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions likely for extended periods of time through Thursday. VFR expected to return on Friday. Gusty northeast winds are expected Wednesday night through Friday.

MARINE. Today and tonight: A warm front will lift north through the waters today which result in northeast to east winds ahead of the front becoming southeast to south afterward. Wind speeds will be quite light, mainly around 10 knots or less, with seas mainly 1 to 3 feet within 20 nm of the coast and 2 to 4 feet from 20 to 60 nm off the Georgia coast.

Wednesday through Sunday: Conditions are expected to deteriorate across the waters from the north later Wednesday into Wednesday night following the passage of a cold front. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for all waters, including the Charleston Harbor. Hazardous winds and seas are expected to persist through late week as the pressure gradient remains enhanced. The worst conditions will occur Thursday night into Friday, when gale-force gusts will be possible. Gale Watches and/or Warnings could eventually be needed for portions of the waters. Marine conditions will improve on Saturday, and Advisories should be able to come down for all waters by Sunday morning. No additional concerns are expected thereafter.

Sea Fog: Sea fog could develop and increase in coverage later today and then linger into Wednesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Increasing northeast winds Thursday into Friday behind a strong cold front could push tide levels high enough to cause minor saltwater inundation, especially along the SC coast.

EQUIPMENT. KCLX radar has returned to service and should remain stable but we are continuing to monitor.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . None.

NEAR TERM . RJB SHORT TERM . ETM LONG TERM . ETM AVIATION . ETM/RJB MARINE . ETM/RJB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 2 mi64 min N 2.9 G 5.1 60°F 1023.3 hPa (+0.4)60°F
CHTS1 8 mi64 min 62°F 58°F1023 hPa (+0.0)
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 19 mi56 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 58°F 57°F1024.2 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 29 mi79 min N 1.9 61°F 1023 hPa58°F
41033 37 mi56 min NE 9.7 G 12 57°F 57°F1023.8 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 45 mi44 min 7.8 G 9.7 69°F1022 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC5 mi4.8 hrsN 38.00 miOvercast57°F55°F94%1022.3 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC18 mi4.8 hrsN 09.00 miOvercast55°F55°F100%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCHS

Wind History from CHS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4NE5NE7E9SE10E9E9E5E5E7--NE4NE5NE5NE5NE5NE3NE4N4N3CalmN4CalmNW4
1 day agoE11E8NE8NE5N5SE3N5CalmNE3NW6NW6N6N5NE6N8N7N6N5N3N5N7NE5NE4NE7
2 days ago--E10E9E12E9E8E10E9NE7NE8E8E5NE6NE5NE4NE5NE5NE6NE5NE5E8NE9E8E6

Tide / Current Tables for Folly Island (outer coast), South Carolina
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Folly Island (outer coast)
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:50 AM EST     5.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:56 AM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:41 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:04 PM EST     4.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:07 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:05 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.33.44.45.15.34.942.91.70.70.40.81.52.53.344.34.13.42.41.40.50.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:21 AM EST     1.27 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:23 AM EST     1.24 knots Min Flood
Tue -- 01:50 AM EST     1.25 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:29 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:34 AM EST     -2.22 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:38 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:30 PM EST     1.13 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:41 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:27 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:07 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:53 PM EST     -1.79 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:58 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.21.21.10.4-0.5-1.4-2.1-2.2-1.6-0.70.41.11.10.90.70.3-0.4-1-1.6-1.8-1.5-0.80

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.