Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Folly Beach, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 6:47PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 8:49 AM EDT (12:49 UTC) Moonrise 7:46PMMoonset 8:47AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 744 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 5 pm edt this afternoon...
Today..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers, mainly this morning.
Tonight..W winds 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt, diminishing to 5 kt in the afternoon.
Fri night..NE winds 5 kt.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sat night..SE winds 10 kt. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 76 degrees.
AMZ300 744 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A cold front will move through this evening, followed by dry high pressure Thursday and Friday. A storm system originating in the gulf of mexico should bring our area unsettled weather this weekend, followed by another cold front the first half of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Folly Beach, SC
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location: 32.66, -79.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 161150
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
750 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will move through this evening, followed by dry
high pressure Thursday and Friday. A storm system originating
in the gulf of mexico should bring our area unsettled weather
this weekend, followed by another cold front the first half of
next week.

Near term through tonight
At sunrise: the heaviest precipitation shield has moved through
and off to the east. Now all that is left behind is isolated to
scattered showers. From mid morning onward, model time heights
and soundings show a distinct drying trend in the mid and upper
levels which will shut off the generation of widespread
significant rainfall. However, into the afternoon, scattered
showers are expected with lingering low level moisture, forcing
from the trough aloft, and some weak instability. Don't think
there will be enough for thunder, but showers look quite
certain. Therefore, rain chances remain in the 20-30 percent
range through the afternoon. The actual cold front shows up well
in thetae plots, and we will remain in the warm sector ahead of
the front through the day. With decreasing clouds and
increasing sun, we should still be able to get highs into the
low 80s, with some chance for mid 80s as well. Winds will turn
more westerly by the afternoon with frequent gusts into the
20-25 mph range.

Tonight: the cold front will begin crossing the forecast area
this evening and should be solidly offshore by the early morning
hours. Skies will clear and much cooler drier air will filter
in. Look for lows to fall into the upper 40s well inland,
ranging to the mid 50s right at the coast.

Short term Thursday through Saturday
Thursday: a mid-level trough is expected to be along or just
off the east coast while ridging builds over the central u.S.

And ms valley. Broad surface high pressure initially centered
over arkansas in the morning will move over the tn valley in the
afternoon, prevailing into the evening and overnight. Its
periphery will stretch into our area, bringing subsidence, dry
conditions, and mostly sunny skies. The cooler airmass will make
daytime temperature feel more like fall for a change. Highs
will struggle to make it to 70 degrees in our sc counties, and
the mid 70s in our ga counties. Lows will be chilly, falling
into the 40s across most of our inland locations, warmer along
the immediate coast.

Friday: a mid-level trough initially located off the east coast
will get pushed away by a strengthening ridge approaching from
the west. The ridge should move over the east coast overnight.

Broad surface high pressure initially centered along the central
appalachians will shift eastward into the afternoon and
overnight. Its periphery will stretch into our area, bringing
subsidence, dry conditions, and mostly sunny skies. High
temperatures will be similar to Thursday, mainly due to
northeast surface winds. Overnight is when things start to
change as moisture associated with a system in the gulf of
mexico starts creeping into our area. Models are in decent
agreement indicating showers making their way into our area,
mainly south of i- 16 after midnight. We have chance pops there,
but they will need to be adjusted more based on
timing intensity refinements. With increasing clouds, low
temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than the previous
night.

Saturday: a mid-level ridge along the east coast will slowly
drift offshore. The 00z models made quite a swing, and they all
seem to have hit in the same general direction. They now show a
storm system originating in the gulf of mexico with its low
moving onshore along or near the fl panhandle later in the day.

The NHC is monitoring this system for potential development.

Even if it does develop into something, it'll be quick to move
onshore and transition to a rain- making system. We only have
chance pops at this time, mainly because we didn't want to go
too much higher than all of our neighbors. But if the trends
continue, then these pops will have to be raised substantially.

It'll depend on the exact location of the system and its overall
intensity.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday
Focus will initially be on a storm system moving into or nearby
the fl panhandle Saturday night, then moving over or nearby our
area Sunday into Monday. Models are in pretty good agreement
showing a wide swath of rainfall during this time period across
the southeast. Though, they differ a bit on rainfall amounts and
locations with the highest amounts, which is to be expected
this far out. Once this system moves away later Monday a cold
front is forecasted to approach on Tuesday, bringing another
batch of rain. Overall, we should expect a wet long term. Pops
may need to be raised much more than we're currently showing.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
Flight categories are mainly in the MVFR range and should stay
there through mid morning through a combination of ceilings and
visibility in passing showers. By mid to late morning,VFR
conditions should return either through a lifting of the ceiling
or scattering of the deck. Through the day, showers will be
possible as well as gusty southwest winds into the 20-25 knot
range. Overnight, clear skies will prevail with northwest winds.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR Thursday and Friday. A storm
system originating in the gulf of mexico is expected to bring
flight restrictions this weekend.

Marine
Today: conditions are quickly deteriorating this morning as a
surface low develops across southeast georgia. This feature will
track to the northeast along the coast and bring quickly
increasing winds to the local waters this morning. Wind speeds
20-25 knot with gusts to 30 knots are expected across all waters
outside of the charleston harbor. Winds will remain elevated
through the day, with a brief lull this evening ahead of an
approaching cold front. Small craft advisories remain in effect
for all waters, and an advisory has been hoisted for the
charleston harbor that runs through the afternoon. Also this
morning, areas of moderate to heavy rain will pass through the
waters and lead to reduced visibility.

Tonight: the cold front will move into the waters this evening,
pushing well offshore through the overnight. Northwest winds
should be primarily in the 15-20 knot range in the cold
advection, but a few gusts to 25 knots will be possible
especially in the outer georgia waters. The advisory for the
outer georgia waters has been extended through 2 am.

High pressure will bring tranquil marine conditions Thursday
and Friday. A storm system originating in the gulf of mexico is
expected to move onshore along or nearby the fl panhandle the
first half of the weekend, then move over or nearby our area
early next week. Depending on the track and overall intensity of
this system, small craft advisories may be needed.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal departures have quickly increased and it looks like the
tide will peak right at or just above 7 ft mllw. Issued a
coastal flood advisory through noon. High tide is around 10 am.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... Coastal flood advisory until noon edt today for scz048>050.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for amz330-
352-354.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for amz350.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Thursday for amz374.

Near term... Bsh
short term... Ms
long term... Ms
aviation... Bsh ms
marine... Bsh ms
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 2 mi50 min SW 11 G 17 71°F 1008.8 hPa (-3.1)71°F
CHTS1 8 mi56 min SW 8 G 13 72°F 76°F1008.3 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 19 mi42 min WSW 21 G 29 73°F 76°F1008.4 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 29 mi65 min Calm 70°F 1010 hPa70°F
41033 37 mi42 min W 7.8 G 12 72°F 77°F1010.2 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 45 mi40 min SW 19 G 23 80°F1008.7 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC5 mi55 minSW 82.00 miLight Drizzle72°F71°F100%1008.5 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC18 mi1.9 hrsSE 73.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist70°F70°F100%1008.8 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC18 mi55 minSSW 114.00 miFog/Mist72°F71°F100%1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCHS

Wind History from CHS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E6NE5E7E5E8E6E5E4SW4SE5S10CalmSW3E6SE4CalmSE6SE5SE7S10SE6SE7S3
1 day agoCalmNW6NW9NW8W7W8W7NW7SW3W5NE6NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmNE5
2 days agoCalmW5SW8SW9SW9
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S11W5S9S9S10S8S8S8S6S6S6SW5NW4NW3NW9CalmS4NW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Folly Island (outer coast), South Carolina
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Folly Island (outer coast)
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Wed -- 03:45 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:56 AM EDT     6.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:13 PM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:11 PM EDT     5.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.92.71.60.80.61.22.43.95.15.865.74.83.62.41.40.91.11.93.14.24.95.25.1

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
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Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     -2.24 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:28 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:09 AM EDT     1.80 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:45 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:00 PM EDT     -2.35 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:06 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:32 PM EDT     1.52 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:50 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-2.2-2.2-1.5-0.50.51.41.81.61.10.6-0.2-1.3-2-2.3-2-1.1-0.10.81.41.410.5-0.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.