Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Folly Beach, SC
May 14, 2024 1:59 AM EDT (05:59 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:19 AM Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 11:10 AM Moonset 12:45 AM |
AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 109 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Rest of tonight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms late.
Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Showers and tstms.
Tue night - SW winds 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed - SW winds 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night - W winds 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu - NW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Thu night - E winds 5 kt, becoming S after midnight.
Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night - S winds 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night - SW winds 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 75 degrees.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 75 degrees.
AMZ300 109 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - A warm front will lift northward through the area Tuesday morning, followed by a cold front from the west Tuesday night. High pressure will return to the area by Thursday, followed by another storm system this weekend.
Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 140201 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1001 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front will lift northward through the area Tuesday morning, followed by a cold front from the west Tuesday night.
High pressure will return to the area by Thursday, followed by another storm system this weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
The first MCS continues to pull through the Florida Peninsula and into the ocean, while a second MCS is moving through the lower Mississippi Valley and northwest Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a warm front is near the Florida-Georgia border and will lift north through the night, as the upstream MCS rides along the northern Gulf coast and reaches the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia close to daybreak.
The relatively quiet conditions early tonight will give way to increasing convective chances after midnight, and especially late, as isentropic ascent continues, along with various impulses aloft moving through. This occurs in advance of a mid level trough moving through the Mississippi Valley. We show slight chance/chance PoPs early on, increasing to as much as numerous to perhaps widespread convection by 6 am. There is no chance of t-storms the first part of the night, but with increasing instability to the south of the northward advancing warm front, the risk for t-storms will climb during the post- midnight period. Any small severe potential would not occur until after 6 am, but some strong t-storms are not out of the question due to the proximity of the warm front.
There are some indications of a weak wave of low pressure forming near the coast of Georgia or lower South Carolina near dawn. Should this occur, it could enhance the risk for both t-storms and the intensity of the rain. Fortunately we will be approaching the low tide.
Temperatures won't change much through the night, actually even rising a tad in wake of the warm front.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
Tuesday and Tuesday night: The most active portion of the short term period will come Tuesday and Tuesday night with a rather complex forecast. As Tuesday morning begins, a warm front will be lifting northward across the forecast area which should then clear to the north by late morning. Forcing aloft will be provided by a closed low and associated trough near the Mississippi Valley that will gradually work eastward through the day. At the start of the day, the main convective complex will likely be crossing north Florida, with other convection ongoing along and near the warm front. While the activity across north Florida should stay south of the Altamaha, it could sneak into far southern southeast Georgia along the coast and bring the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Along the warm front, thunderstorms should be ongoing and lifting to the north and northeast through the morning. We have the highest rain chances during this morning time period, with 60-80 percent along the southeast South Carolina coast and along the Savannah River and to the northeast. As the warm front gets north of the Santee River and the activity to the south pushes out over the coastal waters, we should see a lull before additional convection tries to develop later in the afternoon after recovery ahead of the cold front from the west. This activity will likely extend well into the evening before the frontal zone pushes off the coast late. Activity during this time should be more scattered in coverage, and rain chances are held more into the 30-40 percent range as a result.
Severe Thunderstorms: With the morning activity, the severe threat will likely be tied to the environment along and near the warm front. Model soundings do show MLCAPE around 1,000 J/kg, with 40-50 knots of mid-level flow. There is also some decent veering thanks to the presence of the warm front that could yield SRH values on the order of 150-200 m2/s2. So while damaging wind gusts are the primary threat, the ambient wind profiles will also produce a low end tornado threat. The threat should wane by midday as the activity moves off to the northeast with the front. Attention then turns to the afternoon and evening. While the veering noted in the morning diminishes, mid-level flow remains notable in the 40-50 knot range.
Also, mid-levels dry out and yield DCAPE values of 1,000 J/kg or more which should help to enhance the damaging wind gust threat.
This potential with scattered thunderstorms will continue into the late evening hours.
Rainfall: Total rainfall amounts are still generally expected to be in the 0.50-1.50" range. The highest amounts are expected along the southeast South Carolina coast up through the Charleston Tri-County region. Rainfall amounts, especially at the high end of the range, will be very dependent on exactly where thunderstorms track.
Wednesday through Thursday: The area will be situated within the circulation around an area of low pressure near the Outer Banks.
While a few showers could linger across the Tri-County region early on Wednesday, the bulk of the day is expected to be dry. Weak high pressure will build in on Thursday and bring a quiet weather day.
Highs each day are forecast to reach the upper 80s for most areas.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Shortwave ridging will pass through Thursday night ahead of a shortwave that will cross into the Appalachians and the East Coast through Saturday. A cold front is expected to approach Friday and Friday night and push through the area on Saturday. An area of thunderstorms is depicted by the model consensus and should impact the area at some point during this time period. Active weather could extend into Sunday as well, but there is uncertainty as to the timing of the front and any thunderstorms associated with it. So the overall theme of the long term period is increased rain chances and above normal temperatures.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
An MCS to the south will pull away early tonight, with an upstream MCS to approach late tonight, and pass nearby Tuesday morning. A warm front will also lift north through the area Tuesday morning.
It's a rather complicated forecast, but it does look like flight restrictions will occur for much of the upcoming 00Z TAF cycle, with with at least some chance of SHRA at times overnight into Tuesday. We can rule out a TSRA at any or all of the sites Tuesday morning with the warm front. But probabilities are much too low at this stage to mention in the TAFs.
We do show MVFR ceilings developing at 05Z at KSAV, and taking until 10Z to develop at KCHS and KJZI. However, IFR is possible at times, and adjustments could be made later on.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Additional showers and thunderstorms could impact the terminals with brief flight restrictions Tuesday evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail.
MARINE
As a warm front lifts north tonight, winds will remain elevated on the Georgia waters, where we have solid Small Craft Advisories in effect. SE winds will gust as high as 30 kt, with seas up to 6 feet. Conditions look to remain shy of advisories elsewhere through the night. Mariners should prepare for possible isolated strong t-storms closer to daybreak.
Tuesday through Saturday: A warm front will lift through the waters early Tuesday and turn the flow from southeasterly to be more southerly. Winds should mostly peak in the 15-20 knot range, but there could be a few gusts to 25 knots at times.
Winds will diminish a bit later Tuesday, but then become southwesterly and pick up ahead of a cold front that will push offshore late Tuesday night. Winds should mostly be in the 15-20 knot range during this time. Winds will become more westerly Wednesday night into Thursday, then southerly by Friday. Seas will be highest Tuesday and Tuesday night, with 3-5 ft common, and up to 6 ft expected in the outer Georgia waters and the Charleston County waters. The advisory for the outer Georgia waters goes through noon Tuesday and the Charleston County waters goes into Tuesday evening.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ354.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ374.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1001 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front will lift northward through the area Tuesday morning, followed by a cold front from the west Tuesday night.
High pressure will return to the area by Thursday, followed by another storm system this weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
The first MCS continues to pull through the Florida Peninsula and into the ocean, while a second MCS is moving through the lower Mississippi Valley and northwest Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a warm front is near the Florida-Georgia border and will lift north through the night, as the upstream MCS rides along the northern Gulf coast and reaches the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia close to daybreak.
The relatively quiet conditions early tonight will give way to increasing convective chances after midnight, and especially late, as isentropic ascent continues, along with various impulses aloft moving through. This occurs in advance of a mid level trough moving through the Mississippi Valley. We show slight chance/chance PoPs early on, increasing to as much as numerous to perhaps widespread convection by 6 am. There is no chance of t-storms the first part of the night, but with increasing instability to the south of the northward advancing warm front, the risk for t-storms will climb during the post- midnight period. Any small severe potential would not occur until after 6 am, but some strong t-storms are not out of the question due to the proximity of the warm front.
There are some indications of a weak wave of low pressure forming near the coast of Georgia or lower South Carolina near dawn. Should this occur, it could enhance the risk for both t-storms and the intensity of the rain. Fortunately we will be approaching the low tide.
Temperatures won't change much through the night, actually even rising a tad in wake of the warm front.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
Tuesday and Tuesday night: The most active portion of the short term period will come Tuesday and Tuesday night with a rather complex forecast. As Tuesday morning begins, a warm front will be lifting northward across the forecast area which should then clear to the north by late morning. Forcing aloft will be provided by a closed low and associated trough near the Mississippi Valley that will gradually work eastward through the day. At the start of the day, the main convective complex will likely be crossing north Florida, with other convection ongoing along and near the warm front. While the activity across north Florida should stay south of the Altamaha, it could sneak into far southern southeast Georgia along the coast and bring the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Along the warm front, thunderstorms should be ongoing and lifting to the north and northeast through the morning. We have the highest rain chances during this morning time period, with 60-80 percent along the southeast South Carolina coast and along the Savannah River and to the northeast. As the warm front gets north of the Santee River and the activity to the south pushes out over the coastal waters, we should see a lull before additional convection tries to develop later in the afternoon after recovery ahead of the cold front from the west. This activity will likely extend well into the evening before the frontal zone pushes off the coast late. Activity during this time should be more scattered in coverage, and rain chances are held more into the 30-40 percent range as a result.
Severe Thunderstorms: With the morning activity, the severe threat will likely be tied to the environment along and near the warm front. Model soundings do show MLCAPE around 1,000 J/kg, with 40-50 knots of mid-level flow. There is also some decent veering thanks to the presence of the warm front that could yield SRH values on the order of 150-200 m2/s2. So while damaging wind gusts are the primary threat, the ambient wind profiles will also produce a low end tornado threat. The threat should wane by midday as the activity moves off to the northeast with the front. Attention then turns to the afternoon and evening. While the veering noted in the morning diminishes, mid-level flow remains notable in the 40-50 knot range.
Also, mid-levels dry out and yield DCAPE values of 1,000 J/kg or more which should help to enhance the damaging wind gust threat.
This potential with scattered thunderstorms will continue into the late evening hours.
Rainfall: Total rainfall amounts are still generally expected to be in the 0.50-1.50" range. The highest amounts are expected along the southeast South Carolina coast up through the Charleston Tri-County region. Rainfall amounts, especially at the high end of the range, will be very dependent on exactly where thunderstorms track.
Wednesday through Thursday: The area will be situated within the circulation around an area of low pressure near the Outer Banks.
While a few showers could linger across the Tri-County region early on Wednesday, the bulk of the day is expected to be dry. Weak high pressure will build in on Thursday and bring a quiet weather day.
Highs each day are forecast to reach the upper 80s for most areas.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Shortwave ridging will pass through Thursday night ahead of a shortwave that will cross into the Appalachians and the East Coast through Saturday. A cold front is expected to approach Friday and Friday night and push through the area on Saturday. An area of thunderstorms is depicted by the model consensus and should impact the area at some point during this time period. Active weather could extend into Sunday as well, but there is uncertainty as to the timing of the front and any thunderstorms associated with it. So the overall theme of the long term period is increased rain chances and above normal temperatures.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
An MCS to the south will pull away early tonight, with an upstream MCS to approach late tonight, and pass nearby Tuesday morning. A warm front will also lift north through the area Tuesday morning.
It's a rather complicated forecast, but it does look like flight restrictions will occur for much of the upcoming 00Z TAF cycle, with with at least some chance of SHRA at times overnight into Tuesday. We can rule out a TSRA at any or all of the sites Tuesday morning with the warm front. But probabilities are much too low at this stage to mention in the TAFs.
We do show MVFR ceilings developing at 05Z at KSAV, and taking until 10Z to develop at KCHS and KJZI. However, IFR is possible at times, and adjustments could be made later on.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Additional showers and thunderstorms could impact the terminals with brief flight restrictions Tuesday evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail.
MARINE
As a warm front lifts north tonight, winds will remain elevated on the Georgia waters, where we have solid Small Craft Advisories in effect. SE winds will gust as high as 30 kt, with seas up to 6 feet. Conditions look to remain shy of advisories elsewhere through the night. Mariners should prepare for possible isolated strong t-storms closer to daybreak.
Tuesday through Saturday: A warm front will lift through the waters early Tuesday and turn the flow from southeasterly to be more southerly. Winds should mostly peak in the 15-20 knot range, but there could be a few gusts to 25 knots at times.
Winds will diminish a bit later Tuesday, but then become southwesterly and pick up ahead of a cold front that will push offshore late Tuesday night. Winds should mostly be in the 15-20 knot range during this time. Winds will become more westerly Wednesday night into Thursday, then southerly by Friday. Seas will be highest Tuesday and Tuesday night, with 3-5 ft common, and up to 6 ft expected in the outer Georgia waters and the Charleston County waters. The advisory for the outer Georgia waters goes through noon Tuesday and the Charleston County waters goes into Tuesday evening.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ354.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ374.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CHTS1 | 8 mi | 60 min | SSE 9.9G | 74°F | 76°F | 29.98 | ||
| 41076 | 16 mi | 52 min | 4 ft | |||||
| 41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) | 19 mi | 112 min | SSE 12G | 74°F | 29.97 | 65°F | ||
| 41065 | 19 mi | 98 min | 3 ft | |||||
| ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC | 29 mi | 75 min | SE 1.9 | 73°F | 29.95 | 66°F | ||
| 41067 | 37 mi | 75 min | 75°F | 5 ft | ||||
| 41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC | 45 mi | 50 min | SSE 19G | 77°F | 76°F | 29.97 | 66°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJZI CHARLESTON EXECUTIVE,SC | 5 sm | 24 min | SSE 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | 75°F | 63°F | 65% | 29.96 | |
| KCHS CHARLESTON AFB/INTL,SC | 18 sm | 63 min | SE 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 73°F | 61°F | 65% | 29.96 | |
| KLRO MT PLEASANT RGNLFAISON FIELD,SC | 18 sm | 24 min | SE 06 | 9 sm | Overcast | 73°F | 68°F | 83% | 29.96 |
Folly Island (outer coast)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:29 AM EDT 5.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:06 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:22 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT 0.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:08 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 01:03 PM EDT 4.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:45 PM EDT 0.79 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:29 AM EDT 5.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:06 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:22 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT 0.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:08 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 01:03 PM EDT 4.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:45 PM EDT 0.79 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Folly Island (outer coast), South Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 5.4 |
| 1 am |
| 5.4 |
| 2 am |
| 4.8 |
| 3 am |
| 3.8 |
| 4 am |
| 2.7 |
| 5 am |
| 1.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 1.2 |
| 9 am |
| 2 |
| 10 am |
| 2.8 |
| 11 am |
| 3.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 4.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 4.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.1 |
Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:00 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:06 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:21 AM EDT -2.02 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:21 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:37 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:39 AM EDT 1.07 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:07 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 01:21 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:38 PM EDT -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:41 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:00 PM EDT 1.18 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:00 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:06 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:21 AM EDT -2.02 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:21 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:37 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:39 AM EDT 1.07 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:07 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 01:21 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:38 PM EDT -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:41 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:00 PM EDT 1.18 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0 |
| 2 am |
| -0.8 |
| 3 am |
| -1.6 |
| 4 am |
| -2 |
| 5 am |
| -1.9 |
| 6 am |
| -1.3 |
| 7 am |
| -0.5 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| -1 |
| 4 pm |
| -1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 6 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Charleston, SC,
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