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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 929 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Rest of today..SW winds 5 kt, becoming S late.
Tonight..S winds 5 kt in the evening, becoming light and variable.
Sat..E winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt.
Mon night..N winds 10 kt.
Tue..NE winds 10 kt.
Tue night..NE winds 10 kt.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 59 degrees.

AMZ300 929 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail through Saturday. A strong cold front will cross the area on Sunday, followed by high pressure next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 081436 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 936 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will prevail through Saturday. A strong cold front will cross the area on Sunday, followed by high pressure next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
This morning: The forecast area will remain under the influence of the western edge of high pressure situated over the Atlantic.
Light southerly return flow will develop through the day, and combined with increased low-level thickness values we expect to see warmer temperatures. Highs are forecast to reach the mid to upper 60s, pretty much right on or just above normal for this part of December. Precipitable water values remain relatively low (~0.4-0.6") and any forcing for ascent is still well to the west, keeping the forecast dry. We will see a good amount of mid and high level clouds streaming through during the day within southwest flow aloft.

Tonight: A weak sfc ridge should gradually weaken through the overnight hours. High resolution guidance indicates that an inverted trough will develop over Gulf Stream after midnight, drifting toward the GA/SC coast during the pre-dawn hours.
Isolated to scattered light showers will develop over the nearshore waters late tonight. A shower or two may brush the Charleston County coast after 4 AM. Given steady return flow above the BL, llvl thermal profiles will warm through the night.
Temperatures tonight will be significantly warmer that this morning. Low temperatures in the 50s will be common, with a few upper 40s far inland.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Saturday, a positively tilted upper trough will remain well to the west while strong surface high pressure sits over the western Atlantic. Deep moisture will continue to stream into the area from the strengthening southerly flow. Forcing for ascent will be limited over land, so we expect a mostly dry day. A coastal trough could develop, producing scattered showers over the Atlantic waters, potentially nudging into coastal areas during the afternoon. Warm air advection and partly to mostly cloudy skies will result in a warm day in the low to mid 70s.

A sharp upper trough will sweep across the central United States Saturday night and Sunday, pushing a strong cold front through the area Sunday night. The coastal trough is expected to shift northwest Saturday night, spreading showers across the area from the coast and extending inland. The widespread PVA associated with the upper trough and the main frontal band will likely not get into the western part of the forecast area until after daybreak Sunday. The greatest forcing and deepest moisture should coincide Sunday afternoon and early evening during which we expect the greatest precipitation coverage and QPF.

Despite strong low-level warm advection, extensive cloud cover and rainfall will limit the ability for instability to develop.
Most areas will see no more than 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE, though some guidance shows a pocket of 500-700 J/kg over the Charleston Tri-County Area late Sunday afternoon. 40-50 kt of bulk shear will immediately precede the cold front. The severe weather potential seems fairly low given the weak instability, but at a minimum we expect isolated thunderstorms, and can't completely rule out a strong/severe storm given the strong shear.

Deep mixing and strong low-level jetting will yield a windy day on Sunday, with southerly winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt.
Mixing profiles over Lake Moultrie will not be great due to the warm air over cold water, but 25 kt gusts near the shoreline seem pretty likely, so a Lake Wind Advisory will probably be needed.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to trail the cold front into the Sunday night period, though most activity should be off the coast before daybreak Monday. Monday will be markedly cooler with highs in the mid 50s under sunny skies.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Cool and dry high pressure will prevail for next week.
Temperatures will gradually climb through the week as the airmass slowly modifies.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV: VFR through 12Z Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR into Saturday. Flight restrictions expected Saturday night due to low clouds and potential fog. Visibility and occasional ceiling restrictions expected Sunday and Sunday night due to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Gusty south winds Sunday and Sunday night. VFR Monday and thereafter.

MARINE
Today and tonight: The forecast area will remain between the center of high pressure over the western Atlantic and organizing low pressure over OK, tracking over the Mid West tonight. In addition, a sfc trough is expected to develop over the Gulf Stream tonight, drifting toward the GA/SC coast late tonight.
Isolated to scattered light rain showers are forecast to develop within the trough. Otherwise, winds will generally remain out of the south between 5-10 kts. Wave heights should decrease to 1-2 ft by this afternoon, gradually building to 1-3 ft by late tonight.

Relatively weak SE winds expected Saturday, then winds will become south by late Saturday night and rapidly increase Sunday morning as a strong cold front approaches. Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Sunday and Sunday night for the SC nearshore, GA offshore, and Charleston Harbor. We could see brief gale conditions Sunday night following the cold front with wind gusts of 35 kt over the SC nearshore and GA offshore waters. A Gale Watch is possible. SCA conditions could continue into Monday due to a combination of 25 kt wind gusts and 6 ft seas, but conditions should rapidly improve during the day.
Quiet conditions expected thereafter as high pressure builds in.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Lower Toogoodoo Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:30 AM EST     6.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:07 AM EST     1.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:20 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:36 PM EST     6.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:18 PM EST     0.82 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Toogoodoo Creek, 2 mi. above entrance, South Carolina, Tide feet

Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:49 AM EST     1.27 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:34 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:55 AM EST     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:59 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:07 PM EST     1.27 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:18 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:25 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:58 PM EST     -1.71 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:09 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current, knots

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